@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
简而言之。 Ki Young Ju 于 2019 年联合创办 CryptoQuant，并把它做成加密行业被引用最多的链上数据提供商之一。他的公开分析只围绕一个概念：Realized Cap（已实现市值）——究竟有多少真金白银真正进入了比特币——再与市值对照，用来区分牛市与熊市。这套视角让他在 Terra-Luna 和 FTX 上都提前示警，也让他一次又一次地公开推翻自己：最著名的是 2025 年，他宣布牛市周期结束，七周后道歉，然后眼看着比特币冲上新高。同样的模式在 2026 年重演：5 月 29 日说熊市要延续到 2027 年，8 月 25 日说「The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.」。他不喊点位——他喊的是市场状态，而状态会翻转。
Ki 生于 1992 年，毕业于浦项科技大学，曾做过软件工程师，2018 年创立韩国区块链研究团体 Planet B，2019 年 4 月与校友共同创办 CryptoQuant。这家公司向基金和交易者出售链上与交易所资金流数据——韩国《朝鲜日报》称其为「加密界的彭博」——并于 2022 年 7 月成为 CME Group 的数据供应商。CryptoQuant 的声誉建立在两次早期预警之上：2022 年 5 月 Terra-Luna 崩盘前的异常比特币流动，以及后来围绕 FTX 的信号。
他的公开方法刻意收窄。Realized Cap 把进入钱包的币视为买入、离开钱包的币视为卖出，从而估算真正投入比特币的资本；再与市值对比，就能判断新钱是否在推动价格。当大额流入抬不动价格时，他称之为熊市；当小额流入把价格大幅抬起时，他称之为牛市。这是一套干净的框架，也因此能产出笃定的状态判断。
它同样会产出反转，而 Ki 并不掩饰。2025 年 3 月 17 日他发帖称「#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action」，4 月 5 日把它扩写成一条关于 Realized Cap 的长推文，随后在 2025 年 5 月 9 日写道：「Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.」当年 10 月比特币创下历史新高——媒体把峰值定在 12.6 万美元附近。这次失误落在下方图表的价格窗口之外，但理应记录在案；而 2026 年的表态显示出同样的反射：2026 年 2 月 1 日他写道「this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation」，5 月 29 日把熊市延长到 2027 年初，而到 8 月 21—25 日，他已经喊出底部并宣告熊市周期结束。请把他当作一种装备精良、更新极快的观点来读——而不是一份可以拿来追责的预测。
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
链上状态，而非价格点位。Ki 几乎从不发布目标价。他发布的是一种市场状态——牛、熊、横盘、底部已成——由 Realized Cap 对比市值、短期持有者的盈亏、Bull/Bear Market Cycle 指标（由 MVRV、NUPL 和 SOPR 相对各自 365 日均值构建）以及交易所与 ETF 的资金流数据推导而来。优点在于：这些判断可以被证伪、带有日期，并且立足于真实数据而非感觉。缺点在于时机：一个状态信号可以在结构上正确，却仍然早了或晚了六周；而他自己的记录表明，一旦数据反转，他会在十二周内推翻原先的状态判断。
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
他的利益结构异常清晰：他卖的是数据，不是信号。这消除了推销代币的问题，却带来另一个问题——CryptoQuant 的产品本身就是链上分析，而他的公开发帖正是它的橱窗。
他的生意是一个付费数据终端——按分级套餐向基金、交易台和散户出售链上与交易所资金流分析。他在 X 上的免费分析就是这项产品的营销漏斗；这比付费群更干净，但依然是一种利益关联。
CryptoQuant 以商业方式提供链上数据，包括 2022 年 7 月与 CME Group 签署的供应协议。面向机构的分发会奖励「被引用」，而这会鼓励强硬、易于引述的说法。
他的上行空间来自自己联合创办的公司，而不是一份对外公布的交易账本。他不经营信号服务，也不推销代币——所以当他翻转状态判断时，背后并没有一笔订阅续费在等着。
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · 那台他后来自己弃用的熊市时钟“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · 唯一兑现的一条，而且提前兑现“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · 公开的更正——不在本窗口内，但仍然记录在案引文取自他本人的公开来源；均为其表述的观点，而非投资建议。
这里没有可链接的视频库。Ki 不做播客，也没有自己的频道——他的公开产出是 X 帖子和 CryptoQuant 的研究笔记，其余都是第三方采访。正因如此，上面每一条表态都是带时间戳和链接的引述，而不是一段视频。
CryptoQuant 的联合创始人兼 CEO。CryptoQuant 是一家 2019 年成立的韩国链上数据公司，向基金和交易者出售区块链与交易所资金流分析。他是加密行业被引用最多的链上分析师之一，在 X 上向约 43.4 万名关注者发布比特币市场判断。
没有公开核实的数据。他的财富与其在 CryptoQuant 的股权绑定，而这是一家不披露财务数据的私营公司。任何你看到被引用的具体数字都请忽略——没有一个是经过确认的。
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
Realized Cap——对进入比特币的真实资本量的链上估算——与市值对照，再加上短期持有者盈亏、交易所与 ETF 资金流，以及 CryptoQuant 的 Bull/Bear Market Cycle 指标。他判断的是市场状态（牛、熊、底部已成），而不是价格点位或目标价。
数据变了，Ki 就改判断，并在公开场合承担声誉代价。你的直觉与他有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
