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How we score a trader's calls

Every dossier's Track Record is built the same way, from public price data — so a verdict is a rule, not an opinion.

The data

For each dated call we take daily closing prices from CoinGecko for the relevant asset (or the ETH/BTC ratio), from the day of the video to today. The chart marks three points: when he spoke, the lowest close after the call, and now. “Drawdown” is the deepest close-to-close move against the call after it was made.

The verdicts

Played out

The thesis or price target was reached and held — with no drawdown deeper than ~10% along the way.

Working (after pain)

In profit now, but only after a meaningful drawdown (roughly 15%+) that would have tested conviction.

Half right

Part of the call worked and part didn't (e.g. a floor held but a paired trade went the other way).

Too early / Turning late / Off track / Not yet

A directional idea that hasn't been confirmed inside the window — still open as the cycle plays out.

Went against / Bottom broke

Price violated the level he stated — e.g. traded more than ~15% below a called “bottom” — at some point, even if it later recovered.

Chart calls posted on X (drawn paths and position boxes)

Some traders post their calls as pictures: a chart with the expected path drawn on it, or a TradingView long/short box. Those are scored on Binance hourly candles (spot, or the perpetual when the chart is the perpetual), with one fixed rule set — the verdict is computed by a script, not chosen:

Window

The call's window is where the drawing ends on the time axis, or the stated timeframe (“2-3 weeks”), or 90 days if no time is given. A level reached later, up to twice the window plus 7 days, still counts and is marked late — hand-drawn timing is approximate, price is what the call is about.

Tolerance

Levels read off a drawing, or rounded numbers in text (“28”, “103”), count within 1.5% (never more than a quarter of the move to them). Prices printed by a position box are exact. When a level counts only under the tolerance, the card says so and gives the date the exact level traded.

Drawn path

Levels are checked in the drawn order, each from the previous one. A level is void if price first moves against the call by more than the distance to it (the implied stop). A turning point fails if price overshoots it by more than 10% before the next move. Played out = every level reached in order. Half right = some reached, or the final level traded out of order, or price got at least half way. Open = the late window is not over and nothing is void. Otherwise went against.

Position box

The entry must trade first. Then whichever of stop or target trades first decides: target = played out, stop = went against (even if the target comes later — the card says so). If stop and target fall inside the same hourly candle, we score the stop. Never filled = half right (no trade happened).

Direction without a level

Played out if the best move in the called direction is at least twice the worst move against it and at least 5%; went against in the mirror case; otherwise half right.

Self-reported results (exchange PnL screenshots, “21% from my signal” posted afterwards) are reported as claims and never enter the score. A post the author deletes after we captured it stays on the record, marked as deleted.

What this is not

It's a transparent read of public statements against public prices — not a complete audit of a career, and not financial advice. Calls marked open are revisited as the cycle plays out. Spotted a mistake? Every dossier has a correction link.