@TonySeverinoCMT
A Chartered Market Technician who reads Bitcoin through cycles, Elliott Wave and Bollinger Bands, and who has said since early 2026 that Bitcoin's 16-year bull market is over. His best call of the window was a bullish one: on 4 August, with Bitcoin at $63,465, he said it looked “ripe for a move up to the monthly BB basis”, and it rose 36.4%. His big bearish targets — $34,000, and a 50% crash before the end of 2026 — have not come.
In short. Tony Severino posts on X as @TonySeverinoCMT to about 48,000 followers and sells his deeper work as a paid mentor on the Slice app. He holds the CMT charter and mixes Hurst cycle theory, Elliott Wave, Bollinger Bands and crowd psychology. On our sample of six Bitcoin and Ether posts from 24 March to 2 October the record is 2 played out, 3 open, 1 went against. The best call was the 4 August move to the monthly Bollinger Band basis. The miss was the 2 October call for one more tag of $87,355. The three open calls are all bearish and all big: a 16-year cycle top, $34,000, and a 50% crash before the end of 2026.
Tony Severino signs his posts “Tony Severino, CMT”: he holds the Chartered Market Technician charter, and in a 24 August post wrote that he had “passed CMT program” and started the CEWA (Elliott Wave) program. His X account, @TonySeverinoCMT, dates from June 2019 and has about 48,000 followers; older articles quote his earlier handle, @tonythebullBTC. PrimeXBT's author page calls him a trader, technical analyst and content producer and the founder of CoinChartist.io. In January 2026 Crowdfund Insider introduced him as a “YouHodler market analyst”. He is a regular panelist on the Wolf Bitcoin “Market Talk” X Spaces.
His big view is that Bitcoin topped in October 2025 and that a secular bear market — one that lasts years, not months — has begun. In a February X Space, reported by Bitcoinist on 21 February, he gave his “official” bottom call: about $34,000, a 72% drawdown, around October 2026. He repeated that number on 3 April and, as “my $34,500 target”, on 16 September. NewsBTC wrote on 26 March that he had projected the bear market could extend as far as mid-2027.
This page grades his Bitcoin and Ether calls only. X search returned nothing for this account, so the reading list is his profile feed, which reaches back to 31 July (about 720 of his own posts), plus news articles from March and April that embed his X posts. That leaves May to July thin, and we say so. Many of his posts are about stocks, oil, the dollar, astrology and music, which we do not grade. On 13 August he laid out the same Bollinger Band path in more detail: upside to the monthly basis first, then a bear-market low and a “mid-November cyclical trough”. The second half of that path is still open.
Sources: x.com/TonySeverinoCMT (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · Cointelegraph · NewsBTC · Bitcoinist · coinchartist.substack.com · Crowdfund Insider · PrimeXBT
Cycles first, then the chart. Severino times Bitcoin with Hurst cycle theory (4-, 8- and 16-year cycles, which he now measures as 1,440 days), counts Elliott waves, and uses Bollinger Bands and the TD Sequential for timing. Crowd psychology is the tie-breaker: he reads bullish confidence as a reason to be bearish. The strength showed in August, when a Bollinger Band squeeze called the size of the rally. The weakness is that his biggest calls run years ahead and have not been tested, and that his short-term follow-up in October came 1.0% short and reversed.
Bearish on Bitcoin's big picture all window: a secular bear market, a $34,000 target, and a call for a 50% crash before the end of 2026. Tactically bullish from early August to early October, when he expected a rally to the monthly Bollinger Band basis.
Six dated posts from @TonySeverinoCMT — five on Bitcoin, one on Ether — each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 2 played out, 3 open, 1 went against. The 7 April call that Ether had not bottomed and the 4 August call for a move to the monthly Bollinger Band basis played out. The 2 October call for $87,355 went against. The 24 March cycle-top call, the 3 April $34,000 target and the 7 September call for a 50% crash before the end of the year are still open.
“However, with the October open so close to the basis line, more than likely $BTC tags the basis line again at $87,355”
Posted at $84,842, with “that $93K target” named as the next step if price wicked into the basis. Bitcoin rose to $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October, 1.0% short of $87,355 on daily marks, then turned down. It sits at $80,978 (−4.6%), its lowest mark since the post. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin hit my UPSIDE target to the dollar” — @TonySeverinoCMT on X↗ x.com“I don’t think Bitcoin has bottomed and a huge -50% crash is coming before EOY?”
Posted at $80,329. Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−5.9%) on 16 September, then rose to $86,597 (+7.8%) on 22 September. It sits at $80,978 (+0.8%). A 50% crash from the post would take Bitcoin to about $40,000 by 31 December. It has not started — open.
𝕏 Post“are you aware that:” — @TonySeverinoCMT on X↗ x.com“IMO, this looks ripe for a move up to the monthly BB basis”
Posted at $63,465, three days after his 1 August Bollinger Band “head fake” chart. Bitcoin dipped to $62,844 (−1.0%) on 17 August, passed $80,000 on 28 August and reached $86,597 (+36.4%) on 22 September. He later put the basis target at $87,500; the daily marks peaked 1.0% below that, and he says the intraday high came “closer to $89,000”. It sits at $80,978 (+27.6%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“yet another look at the Bollinger Bands head fake setup in Bitcoin” — @TonySeverinoCMT on X↗ x.com“Which means we haven't bottomed yet, because it hasn't broken the line yet”
A reply under his Ether cycle chart, posted at 00:58 UTC with Ether at $2,101; Bitcoinist placed the chart's line just above $2,000. Ether first bounced to $2,421 (+15.2%) on 18 April, then broke below $2,000 on 3 June and fell to $1,566 (−25.5%) on 26 June, its low of the window. It sits at $2,362 (+12.4%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“we haven't bottomed yet” — @TonySeverinoCMT on X↗ x.com“Correct -72% max drawdown next =$34,000”
Posted at 00:32 UTC with Bitcoin at $66,888, quoting a post about Cathie Wood's view that 85% crashes are over. Bitcoin rallied to $82,018 (+22.6%) on 11 May, then fell to $58,566 (−12.4%) on 1 July, the low of the window, far above $34,000. It sits at $80,978 (+21.1%). In February he timed this bottom for around October 2026. It has not come — open.
𝕏 Post“Correct” — @TonySeverinoCMT on X↗ x.com“The more I see this behavior, the more I know deep inside it is over for many, many years”
Posted at $70,987. Bitcoin rallied to $82,018 (+15.5%) on 11 May, fell to $58,566 (−17.5%) on 1 July, then rose to $86,597 (+22.0%) on 22 September. It sits at $80,978 (+14.1%). This is a call about years, not months — open.
𝕏 Post“The 16-year Bitcoin expansion is over” — @TonySeverinoCMT on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. We did not chart stock, oil, dollar and altcoin posts, two-sided posts, or long-range views that run past the price window. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark; he often cites intraday highs, which daily marks do not show. The “$1,000 in on their call” line assumes buying on the post date; for the bearish cards it is not a short. Near-term marks can flip.
His X posts are free. His deeper work is sold as a paid mentorship on the Slice app, and he promotes it often. Here is what we found.
His X bio links to his trader page on Slice, a paid app where he posts charts, trade setups and targets. He has run a 7-day free trial, and on 21 September offered 10% off a yearly subscription. On 24 August he celebrated a new high in his Slice subscriber count. Many of his market posts end with a link to sign up. We found no published monthly price.
His Substack, CoinChartist, ran a paid VIP letter until late 2025. Its 21 August 2026 email told readers “I’m mentoring traders directly on Slice” and sent them to the free trial.
In January 2026 Crowdfund Insider called him a “YouHodler market analyst”, and he has an author page on the exchange PrimeXBT. Both firms sell crypto products.
He says he uses leverage and that he took a trade with “house money” in August. On 28 September he wrote that a token trade he posted on Slice had “doubled my money in under 24 hours”. We found no public record of his Bitcoin holdings.
“IMO, this looks ripe for a move up to the monthly BB basis”
4 Aug 2026 · the Bollinger Band call that played out“Correct -72% max drawdown next =$34,000”
3 Apr 2026 · his bear-market bottom target“I don’t think Bitcoin has bottomed and a huge -50% crash is coming before EOY?”
7 Sep 2026 · his call for the rest of 2026Quotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
Severino posts charts on X and sells his fuller analysis on Slice. His Substack, CoinChartist, has a public archive back to 2025.
A Chartered Market Technician (CMT) who posts Bitcoin cycle analysis on X as @TonySeverinoCMT to about 48,000 followers. He sells a paid mentorship on the Slice app and has written for YouHodler and PrimeXBT. His big view is that Bitcoin entered a secular bear market after October 2025.
On our sample of six dated Bitcoin and Ether posts from March to October 2026: two played out, three are still open, one went against. The 4 August call for a rally to the monthly Bollinger Band basis played out (+36.4%). His $34,000 target and his call for a 50% crash before the end of 2026 are still open.
A false break out of a tight Bollinger Band squeeze that quickly reverses and is followed by a strong move the other way. Severino used the setup in August 2026 to call a rally toward the monthly basis, the band's middle line.
About $34,000, a 72% drawdown from the October 2025 peak, which he timed for around October 2026. Bitcoin's lowest daily mark in our window was $58,566 on 1 July.
Yes. He sells a paid mentorship on the Slice app with charts, setups and targets, and promotes it with free trials and discounts. He ran a paid Substack letter, CoinChartist, until late 2025.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: dated X posts captured from X's public endpoints and the sources linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Tony? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 15 October 2026
