@TedPillows
A chart-and-calendar analyst who posts in a format that is unusually easy to grade: a level, a trigger, and what happens if it breaks. That makes him a good test case — and the test has an edge to it. He mapped the whole first half of 2026 in advance, then turned bearish on the exact day of the low.
In short. Ted Pillows publishes dated technical calls on X and a free near-daily market report on Substack, built from trendlines, MACD crosses, the 50-week EMA and the macro calendar. On our rolling 2026 sample of eleven posts the record is 4 played out, 5 open, 2 went against — and the split is not random. His March–April roadmap was the best forward-looking work on this page: nine weeks ahead he called a pump into $78,000–$80,000 followed by a downtrend, then narrowed it to new lows inside Q2 and a bottom in Q3. Bitcoin topped at $82,018 on 11 May and bottomed at $58,566 on 1 July. Both landed. Then the same feed posted “sellers are in control” on 1 July — the lowest daily mark in the entire window — before Bitcoin ran +47.9%, and called Solana distribution on 5 August, before SOL ran +65.6%. His newest base case — a retrace to the mid-$70,000s, set on 21 September when he sold his last Bitcoin at $85,000 — is open, with half of his own invalidation rule already tripped. The structural work is strong; the day-to-day sentiment reads are not.
Ted Pillows posts as @TedPillows (X user id 3222562058, display name simply “Ted”, blue-verified). Since 8 July 2026 he has also run a free Substack that publishes a near-daily “Crypto & Finance market report” plus occasional essays on trading process. His own description of the project, from the Substack profile: “Turning on-chain and macroeconomic signals into daily market reports, backed by deep research and actionable investment theses.” The daily reports are marked audience “everyone”, but since 14 September the Substack has a paid tier: a post that day put his live trading-portfolio spreadsheet behind “bonus content for paid subscribers” — worth knowing before reading the money section below.
A lot of what circulates about him does not survive checking, so this page does not repeat it. There is no verified legal name — “Pillows” is a handle, and X shows only “Ted”. There is no verified country; one search-optimised site calls him Canadian with no source, so we omit it. There is no follower figure on this page: X's syndication endpoint does not return one, its profile endpoint is blocked from our host, and secondary sources disagree (one 2026 article says 230,000; this site's own registry estimates ~300,000). The widely-repeated claim that he is a “Binance and Bybit partner” traces back to tedpillows.com, which returns HTTP 404 — so it is not asserted here either. What third parties do confirm: crypto.news cites him as a CryptoQuant contributor, and DropsTab lists him as an angel investor with one disclosed seed round. Pronouns follow consistent press usage; he has not stated them himself.
The format is why he is chartable at all. Most of the feed is a named level plus a conditional — “right at the 50W EMA”, “a weekly close below this could push Bitcoin towards $72,000–$74,000” — which is a falsifiable sentence with a date on it. That cuts both ways, and we have graded it both ways below. Eleven in-window posts qualified. Five more were examined and excluded — two of them restatements of calls that worked, so dropping them cost him wins — and each exclusion is listed with its reason in the verified corpus rather than quietly binned.
Sources: x.com/TedPillows (captured via X syndication) · tedpillows.substack.com · crypto.news
Levels first, calendar second. The toolkit is small and consistent: trendline and downtrend breakouts, daily and weekly MACD crosses, the 50-week EMA as the line that defines the regime, liquidity and liquidation clusters, and CryptoQuant-style spot-flow data — all hung on the macro calendar, so CPI, PPI and Fed meetings are usually the stated trigger. At his best he chains these into a multi-month roadmap with sequence and timing, which is rarer and harder than a single price target and is what the March–April calls did. The recurring weakness sits at the other end of the timeframe: short-horizon sentiment posts that extrapolate the last candle — bearish at the low, “distribution” into a 66% rally — where the level-based discipline goes missing and the tape talks instead.
Cycle-bullish but tactically two-sided, and genuinely willing to post a bearish target — which is why two calls on this page score against him. His bull case is conditional on the Fed and on weekly closes, not on conviction, so the bias moves with the level rather than staying pinned.
Eleven dated posts from @TedPillows, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 4 played out, 5 open, 2 went against, but read it by timeframe rather than by score. The multi-month roadmap was right: on 4 March he called a pump towards $78,000–$80,000 and then a downtrend, on 15 April he put the new lows inside Q2, and on 8 April he put the bottom in Q3. Bitcoin peaked at $82,018 on 11 May and bottomed at $58,566 on 1 July — the first day of Q3. The day-to-day reads were not: the 1 July post landed on the exact low and read it as seller control, and the 5 August Solana post called distribution before a +65.6% run. Note that the March and April roadmap posts are one evolving thesis, not three independent wins — they are charted separately because each adds a timing claim the others do not test, and the one whose unique leg ($100,000 by end of Q4) is still unresolved is scored open, not played out. The 4 March post has now aged out of our 210-day price window, so its chart anchors at 6 March; its grade rests on the levels he named.
“Yes, I still expect a retrace toward the mid-$70Ks.”
A profit-taking post with a thesis attached. He sold his last Bitcoin at $85,000 intraday and said in the same post he was not calling a top; what is graded here is the base case he kept, a retrace toward the mid-$70,000s. The chart measures from the day's CoinGecko mark, $81,169. The retrace has not come: Bitcoin ran +6.7% to $86,597 on 22 September, has not printed a daily mark below $83,000 since, and holds $83,448 (+2.8%). He named his own invalidation — multiple daily and weekly closes above $83,000. The daily half is met; only one weekly close since has come in above it, so by his own rule the thesis is not dead yet, and on 30 September he restated it: “a drop into the high $70,000s before the next leg up”. Open, with the invalidation half-tripped. Cross-checked: TheStreet and investingLive reported this post the same day.
𝕏 Post“I sold my last Bitcoin at $85,000. Why?” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“A weekly close below this could push Bitcoin towards $72,000-$74,000.”
His regime line, with a target attached for once. Posted at $76,555 with Bitcoin sitting on the 50-week EMA; the downside case needed a weekly close below it, and none has come — no weekly close since has printed below the post-day mark. The lowest daily mark afterwards was $75,590 (−1.3%) on 16 September; Bitcoin then ran +13.1% to $86,597 and holds $83,448 (+9.0%). The $72,000–$74,000 target was conditional, the condition never triggered, and the post took no side on the bounce — so it stays open rather than being scored either way, though the downside branch is now a long way off. Cross-checked: crypto.news embedded this post the same day.
𝕏 Post“$BTC is right at the 50W EMA level” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This means ETH has most likely bottomed for this cycle.”
A big claim on a small move. From $2,442 Ethereum has held — the deepest mark since is $2,391 (−2.1%) — then ran +13.6% to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+10.0%). His stated obstacle, the $2,550 level, broke on the way up. Two things still keep this open. A cycle bottom is a multi-quarter claim that one month cannot settle. And the actual 2026 low was $1,566 on 26 June, 36% below where he said this — so the sentence is a confirmation of a bottom already made, not a call for one.
𝕏 Post“ETH has most likely bottomed for this cycle” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This looks like distribution.”
Distribution means smart money leaving before a breakdown, and that is not what came next. From $74 Solana fell just −1.5% to $73 on 7 August, then ran +65.6% to $122 by 26 September — the largest move any asset makes on this page — and holds $118 (+60.1%). The spot-selling data he cited was real; the conclusion drawn from it was the opposite of the outcome. Same-day crypto.news coverage carried the quote and built its bear case on it, which is how this one travelled.
𝕏 Post“$SOL is going sideways. But spot is selling.” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Ethereum could start outperforming Bitcoin heavily now.”
A relative-value call, and the cleanest hit in the sample. From that day Ethereum ran +43.9% from $1,929 to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+39.2%), with a maximum dip of −4.4%. Bitcoin over the same stretch went from $66,521 to $83,448, +25.4%. The ETH/BTC ratio he charted is up +11.0% — “heavily” is a fair description, and he named the reason (the eleven-month downtrend breaking) rather than the vibe.
𝕏 Post“ETH/BTC has broken out of 11-month downtrend” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“As long as Bitcoin stays below $60,000, sellers are in control.”
The worst-timed post on this page, and it is worth being precise about why. It was published on 1 July at $58,566 — the lowest daily mark in the entire price window. Bitcoin never printed a lower one. It closed back above his $60,000 line on 3 July, two days later, and ran +47.9% to $86,597 by 22 September; it holds $83,448 (+42.5%). In fairness the sentence is conditional — “as long as” — and the condition broke almost immediately, so he was not trapped short for long. But the read of the day was seller control at the exact bottom, and that is the call being graded.
𝕏 Post“$BTC hit a new yearly low” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Most of the downside liquidity has been taken out.”
Two claims, both checkable. Ethereum bottoms before Bitcoin: ETH's low came on 26 June at $1,566, Bitcoin's on 1 July — five days later, in the order he gave. And most of the downside is done: from $1,749 the deepest mark after this post was −10.5%, then Ethereum ran +58.7% to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+53.6%). The honest deduction: the $1,300–$1,400 sweep he floated as possible never happened, so the level was wrong even though the thesis was right — which is why the quote graded here is the part he actually committed to.
𝕏 Post“$ETH is more likely to bottom before $BTC” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Now, Bitcoin is approaching the $78,000-$80,000 resistance zone, which will be a real test.”
A two-sided map with no lean, so the market gave him both halves. From $76,297 Bitcoin pushed straight through the zone to $82,018 (+7.5%) on 11 May — the reclaim branch — and then failed, giving back 28.6% from that high to $58,566 (−23.2% from this post) — the bigger-correction branch. It has since run to $86,597 (+13.5%) and holds $83,448 (+9.4%). A post that describes both outcomes cannot be scored a hit, so it is logged open. One thing in it was plainly wrong: the $75,000 support he said “held strong” broke, and price went 21.9% below it within nine weeks.
𝕏 Post“$BTC is back above the $77,000 level” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This could give one final push to Bitcoin towards the $77,000-$78,000 level. After that, BTC will drop to new lows in Q2 2026.”
The sharpest version of his roadmap, because it carries a deadline. From $74,297 the final push arrived on schedule — $78,638 on 27 April, extending to $82,018 (+10.4%) on 11 May, overshooting his zone. Then the drop: Bitcoin took out the February low of $64,074 and printed $59,495 on 29 June (−19.9%), inside Q2 with a day to spare, with the floor at $58,566 (−21.2%) two days after. Level and quarter both correct, called ten weeks ahead.
𝕏 Post“$BTC has broken out of its 7-month downtrend” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“▫️ A pump towards $80,000 . ▫️ A local top and correction to new lows. ▫️ Bottom in Q3 and a quick recovery towards $100,000 by Q4 end”
A four-step forecast, three steps delivered. From $71,662: the pump towards $80,000 came — $82,018 on 11 May (+14.5%); the local top and correction to new lows came — $58,566 (−18.3%); and the bottom landed on 1 July, the first day of Q3, exactly the quarter he named. The fourth leg is what keeps this open: $100,000 by the end of Q4 needs another +19.8% from today's $83,448, and the quarter starts today; the high so far is $86,597 (+20.8% from this post), on 22 September. Scored open rather than played out so the resolved legs do not borrow credit from an unresolved one.
𝕏 Post“IMO, this is how Bitcoin could play out” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“▫️ Bitcoin could pump towards $78,000-$80,000. ▫️ After that, the next downtrend will start.”
The first statement of the roadmap, built on a war analogy — Russia–Ukraine in February 2022, US–Iran in February 2026. Posted at $68,287, a mark that has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors this card at the window's first day, 6 March, at $70,868; the grade rests on the levels he named, which the anchor cannot move. Bitcoin entered his zone on 27 April at $78,638 and topped at $82,018 (+20.1% from the post) on 11 May; the downtrend then took 28.6% off that high, to $58,566. Both legs, nine weeks ahead. The analogy itself was far too violent — he cited a 40% pump and a 67% dump, and got +20.1% then −28.6% — so the shape was right and the scale was not.
𝕏 Post“Feb 2022 … Feb 2026” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated lean against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. A post earns a card only if it makes a claim the other cards do not already test; five in-window posts were excluded as restatements or as non-calls, each with its reason recorded — two of them would have scored as wins. X truncates long posts at ~277 characters, and three of these were truncated: we quote and grade only the text X returned, never the unseen tail. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
When this page was first published there was no paywall to point at. That changed in September: the daily reports are still public, but there is now a paid tier, and his posts point to it. It is worth knowing where the incentives sit.
The near-daily Crypto & Finance market report on Substack is still marked audience “everyone”. But since 14 September the Substack has a paid tier: a post that day put his live trading-portfolio spreadsheet behind “bonus content for paid subscribers”, and X posts on 21 September and 1 October point readers to an X subscription for “the live spreadsheet” of his buys and sells. The 21 September post charted here ends with that pitch.
A 30 September X post about trading the US jobs data carried a SimpleFX deposit-bonus link — a broker referral that pays on trading activity, not on whether the call is right.
DropsTab lists him as an angel investor with one disclosed seed round (Hybrid, infrastructure, January 2025, alongside Outlier Ventures and others). Analysts who hold early allocations have a position in what they comment on — the general caution applies whether or not it touches the assets charted here.
He is widely described as a key-opinion-leader with exchange ties. We could not verify the frequently-repeated “Binance and Bybit partner” claim from any live primary source — the site it traces to is offline — so treat it as unconfirmed rather than as fact, in either direction.
No course and no token of his own that we could find. The calls on this page were all posted publicly and free on X.
“Bitcoin could pump towards $78,000-$80,000. After that, the next downtrend will start.”
04 Mar 2026 · the roadmap, nine weeks early“As long as Bitcoin stays below $60,000, sellers are in control.”
01 Jul 2026 · posted on the exact low“Ethereum could start outperforming Bitcoin heavily now.”
22 Jul 2026 · the rotation call that workedQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
There is no video library to link. Ted Pillows publishes on X and in a free Substack newsletter — no podcast, and no YouTube channel we could confirm is his (the channel matching his name could not be verified and its feed returns 404, so it is not linked here). That is exactly why every call above is a timestamped post rather than a clip: X's own syndication endpoint returns the author, the full text and the UTC date, which is a harder record to argue with than a transcript. The full corpus — including the five in-window posts we examined and excluded, with the reason for each — is cited on every card.
A crypto analyst who posts dated technical calls as @TedPillows on X and writes a free, near-daily market report on Substack. His real name, country and follower count are not verifiable from any primary source, so this page does not state them. Press cites him as a CryptoQuant contributor, and DropsTab lists him as an angel investor.
On our rolling sample of eleven dated 2026 posts: four played out, five are still open, two went against. The pattern is more useful than the tally — his multi-month roadmap for the first half of 2026 (a top near $78,000–$80,000, new lows in Q2, a bottom in Q3) landed, while his short-horizon sentiment posts did not: he called seller control on the exact day of the low and Solana distribution before a 66% rally.
Levels plus the macro calendar. He works from trendline breakouts, daily and weekly MACD crosses, the 50-week EMA as the regime line, liquidity clusters and spot-flow data, and usually hangs the trigger on a CPI, PPI or Fed date. His posts are typically a level, a condition and a consequence, which is what makes them gradeable.
Not for these — the calls charted on this page were all posted free on X, and his daily Substack reports are public. Since September he does sell access: a paid Substack tier and an X subscription unlock a live spreadsheet of his buys and sells. He is listed elsewhere as an angel investor, and is often described as having exchange partnerships, though we could not verify that claim from a live primary source.
Not publicly known, and no credible figure exists. Ignore any specific number you see attached to his name.
Pillows trades a line, not a feeling: a level, a trigger, and what it means if it breaks. How close is your instinct — measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials — dated X posts captured from X's own syndication endpoint, and news coverage linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Ted? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 1 October 2026
