@Excellion
The loudest $1 million Bitcoin voice in the market — and the man who named the “Omega candle.” Mow doesn't trade levels; he sells a single, unwavering direction and then dares the market to disagree. That makes him easy to score: the targets are public, dated, and either printed or they didn't.
In short. Samson Mow is the CEO of JAN3, the Bitcoin infrastructure company that works with governments on national adoption, and the former CSO of Blockstream and COO of BTCC. He is a Bitcoin-only maximalist with one standing thesis — supply is far scarcer than the market prices, so Bitcoin goes to $1 million in a short, violent repricing he calls an “Omega candle.” That conviction is his edge and his flaw in the same breath. Our 2026 sample shows it clearly: when the market broke, his refusal to blink was exactly right — he called the bottom three days early, within 2.3% of the low. When the market was calm, the same conviction produced concrete timing calls that missed badly, including a $80k floor that never held and an “Omega candle just around the corner” that preceded a 24% drawdown.
Mow is a Chinese-Canadian entrepreneur who came to Bitcoin through gaming and infrastructure rather than trading. He founded the game studio Pixelmatic in 2011 (developer of Infinite Fleet), served as COO of BTCC — then one of the world's largest exchanges and mining pools — and later as Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream. In March 2022 he left to found JAN3, raising $21M to build tools for what he calls hyperbitcoinization.
JAN3's business is sovereign adoption: advising governments on holding and issuing against Bitcoin, work that grew out of his high-profile role in El Salvador's Bitcoin strategy and its Volcano Bond. That matters when reading him. He is not a chartist posting entries and stops — he is a Bitcoin-only advocate whose company profits from Bitcoin being adopted, and his public calls are almost uniformly, structurally bullish. He is also willing to put numbers on it: his published 2026 predictions included $1.33M Bitcoin and MSTR at $5,000, neither of which is remotely in play with BTC near $77k.
Sources: x.com/Excellion · jan3.com · dated press (CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, Cointelegraph)
Conviction over calibration. Mow's framework is supply-side and absolute: 21 million cap, under a million coins left to mine, treasury companies and states buying with no price sensitivity, therefore any price below roughly $110–120k is a discount and the repricing will be sudden rather than gradual. He does not use stops, levels or invalidation — there is no price at which his thesis is wrong, only prices that are “a deep discount.” The practical consequence is a barbell record: excellent in capitulation, where his refusal to sell is the correct trade and his timing near lows has been genuinely good, and poor at short-horizon targets, where the same certainty produces four-week predictions that price simply ignores.
About as bullish as this database gets. Mow is Bitcoin-only and holds no bearish scenario — his stance shifts between “buy” and “buy harder,” so read him as a permanent bull whose value is in the reasoning, not the direction.
Six dated, public statements from Mow inside the price window, each verified against the source before it was charted — four are X posts captured from X's own syndication endpoint (exact text, exact timestamp), two are quotes confirmed on the page that published them. Because he posts direction rather than levels, we judged each one on what Bitcoin actually did next. The sample splits sharply by market regime: his two crash-period calls in June 2026 were the best-timed on this page, and his two calm-market timing calls in March and April were the worst. His headline numbers — $1.33M in 2026, posted in January, and a $1M target he has carried since 2025 — sit outside this window and are noted below rather than scored.
“The market smells blood in the water and is climbing into the Bitcoin boat for safety.”
Posted as long-bond yields hit highs and Bitcoin pushed back over $71k, framing the move as a flight to safety into BTC, not a relief bounce. From $69,291 Bitcoin has never traded lower — the low since is the day itself — and it ran to $81,265 (+17.3%) before settling at $77,472 (+11.8%). A clean directional read with no drawdown against it.
𝕏 Post“The market smells blood in the water…” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in 4 months because “cycles.” But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles you should reason out the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in.”
The strongest call in this dossier, made against a loud consensus that the cycle low was still four months away. He said it at $59,953; the actual low of this window printed three days later on 1 Jul at $58,566 — he was early by 2.3%. From there Bitcoin ran to $81,265 (+35.5%) and now sits at $77,472 (+29.2%). Verified verbatim from the post itself; CoinDesk reported it the same day.
𝕏 Post“The bottom is in.” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“The fundamental value proposition for Bitcoin hasn’t changed at all: neutral, permissionless, bearer money. It’s the best hope for the future and hyperbitcoinization is inevitable because continued fiat money printing is an absolute certainty.”
Posted with Bitcoin collapsing below $60k and sentiment at its worst of the year — a flat refusal to revise the thesis. It was the right call to make: from $62,662 price gave up only another −6.5% to $58,566 before turning, reached $81,265 (+29.7%) and is now $77,472 (+23.6%). Not a price target — a hold-through-capitulation stance, and it worked.
𝕏 Post“The fundamental value proposition for Bitcoin hasn’t changed at all…” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“Everything is up in the air now. And I think an Omega candle and $1 million Bitcoin is just around the corner, especially with all the buy pressure that is flooding the market now with Saylor through STRC and other Bitcoin treasury company players all coming in”
In the same interview he argued “anything under $120,000, $110,000 I think, is below fair market value.” What followed was the opposite of a melt-up: from $77,367 Bitcoin fell −24.3% to $58,566, managed a high of only $82,018 (+6.0%), and is $77,472 today — +0.1%, effectively flat five months later. No Omega candle, no $1M, and the “deep discount” got roughly a quarter cheaper first. Marked against on the timing claim, not the valuation argument.
SourceExpert Says $1 Million Bitcoin and “Omega Candle” Is Just Around the Corner — Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“It's highly unlikely that #Bitcoin will be below $80k in 4 weeks. It's highly likely it will be closer to $0.1M.”
His most falsifiable call — a level and a deadline. Bitcoin was $69,849 when he posted. Over the four weeks that followed it never once traded above $74,679, and on the deadline date (8 Apr) it closed at $71,662 — comfortably below the $80k he called unlikely, and nowhere near $0.1M. It then fell to $58,566 (−16.2%). Price is +10.9% today, but the four-week claim failed on both legs.
𝕏 Post“It's highly unlikely that #Bitcoin will be below $80k in 4 weeks.” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“We’re setting up for a decade-long bull run and no one is paying attention.”
A structural claim with a ten-year horizon, so this window can only take its temperature. Since he posted at $67,497, Bitcoin is +14.8% at $77,472 — but it first fell −13.2% to $58,566 and its best mark was $82,018 (+21.5%), far from anything that settles a decade-long thesis. Logged open: directionally fine so far, unjudgeable on this timeframe.
𝕏 Post“We’re setting up for a decade-long bull run…” — @Excellion on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked source. Mow's thesis is explicitly multi-year, so a “went against” mark here means the near-term claim failed — it is not a verdict on the long thesis, which no chart in this window can settle.
Mow does not sell signals, courses or a newsletter — which removes the most common conflict in this database and replaces it with a bigger, more structural one. His X account carries an official JAN3 business badge, and JAN3's revenue depends on Bitcoin adoption accelerating. Read his calls as the public voice of a Bitcoin infrastructure company, not as a detached analyst's.
JAN3 raised $21M in 2022 to sell Bitcoin infrastructure and advisory to enterprises and governments. Higher prices and faster adoption are directly good for that business, and he is its CEO and public face — the clearest conflict on this page.
His profile was built on El Salvador's Bitcoin strategy and the Volcano Bond, and JAN3 continues to court sovereign clients. Bullish sovereign-adoption forecasts are simultaneously his product pitch.
He remains CEO of the game studio Pixelmatic (Infinite Fleet) and is a paid fixture on the Bitcoin conference circuit, where maximalist conviction is what the stage is booked for.
“The bottom is in.”
28 Jun 2026 · three days and 2.3% before the actual low“The market smells blood in the water and is climbing into the Bitcoin boat for safety.”
20 Aug 2026 · reading the flight from long bonds“It's highly unlikely that #Bitcoin will be below $80k in 4 weeks. It's highly likely it will be closer to $0.1M.”
11 Mar 2026 · the miss, kept on the recordQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
Mow runs no personal trading channel — his track record above is built from dated X posts and quoted press, because those carry a timestamp that can be verified and a text that can be quoted exactly. The video record is his company's: JAN3 publishes his thesis pieces and appearances.
Bitcoin is the Ninth Wonder of the WorldJAN3's flagship thesis piece on Bitcoin's scarcity.18 Aug 2026
Who Gets to Change Bitcoin? Samson Mow on BIP-110Mow on protocol governance and the BIP-110 fight.28 Jul 2026
Ideally we wouldn't need a blockchain at allOn what the blockchain is actually for.31 Jul 2026
Bitcoin is Energy MoneyThe energy-and-scarcity framing behind his $1M target.19 May 2026A Chinese-Canadian entrepreneur and Bitcoin-only advocate, CEO of the Bitcoin infrastructure company JAN3 and of the game studio Pixelmatic. He was previously Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream and COO of the exchange BTCC, and is best known for his work on El Salvador's Bitcoin strategy and for his standing $1 million Bitcoin target.
His long-standing target is $1 million per coin, arriving in what he calls an “Omega candle” — a single-day move of more than $100,000 — rather than a gradual climb. In January 2026 he published a specific figure of $1.33M for the year. Bitcoin is around $77,000 as of 15 September 2026, so that target is nowhere in play.
He is an advocate and a company CEO, not a licensed adviser, and he holds no bearish scenario at any price. Our 2026 sample splits by regime: his June calls near the crash low were excellent — he called the bottom three days and 2.3% early — while his March four-week target and April “Omega candle is just around the corner” both missed badly. Treat him as high-conviction commentary with a clear commercial interest, never as a trade signal.
Supply-side and absolute: 21 million cap, under a million coins left to mine, and price-insensitive buyers (corporate treasuries and states) taking the float. He concludes that anything under roughly $110–120k is below fair value and that the repricing will be sudden. He does not use stops, levels or invalidation points.
Mow's whole edge is refusing to blink — no stops, no invalidation, one direction held through a 24% drawdown. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials — dated X posts captured from X's own syndication endpoint and quotes confirmed on the pages that published them, linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Samson? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 15 September 2026
