@100trillionUSD
The anonymous Dutch quant who turned Bitcoin's supply schedule into a chart the whole market argued about. His Stock-to-Flow model made him famous — and then missed badly in 2021. Today he posts something rarer than a price target: a dated monthly close, with his levels and his odds, every single month. That is a track record you can actually check.
In short. PlanB is the pseudonymous author of Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model — the 2019 idea that Bitcoin's price should follow its scarcity. He has never revealed his identity, describing himself only as a Dutch institutional investor with a quantitative background. His method is mechanical and public: every month he posts Bitcoin's monthly close alongside the 200-week moving average, realized price and monthly RSI, and says what he thinks happens next. Through the 2026 bear leg that discipline worked twice — he called the break to the low in February and again in June. It also failed twice, in the most instructive way: he was still calling for lower prices on the exact bottom, and again a month later. His long-term S2F target of $500k remains open, and his headline 2021 forecast was wrong by more than half.
In March 2019 an anonymous account published a Medium article called “Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity”, arguing that Bitcoin's price tracks its stock-to-flow ratio — the size of the existing supply divided by new annual issuance. The chart went everywhere, the handle @100trillionUSD (a nod to the Zimbabwean 100-trillion-dollar note) became one of the most-followed in Bitcoin, and “S2F” became shorthand for the halving-driven bull case. PlanB has never revealed who he is, saying only that he is a Dutch investor with a quantitative finance background and decades in the industry.
The model's most famous test failed. S2F pointed to six figures for the 2021 cycle, and PlanB staked the model on it in public. On 23 June 2021 he wrote: “I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.” Bitcoin never came close — it ended 2021 around $46k — and on 18 December 2021 he declined to pull the trigger: “Will I ditch S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands.” Critics have long argued the model is circular and ignores demand entirely; that episode — the miss, and the walked-back invalidation test — is the strongest evidence for them, and it belongs at the top of any honest page about him.
What he does now is narrower and more checkable. Each month he posts the Bitcoin monthly close with three numbers — the 200-week moving average, the realized price (the average on-chain cost basis) and the monthly RSI — and states his expectation. Those posts are dated, public and specific enough to score, which is exactly what the chart below does. His long-run S2F number for the 2024–2028 halving cycle is $500k, in a $250k–$1m range — a claim that is still open, not proven.
Sources: x.com/100trillionUSD · youtube.com/@PlanB_Bitcoin · planbtc.com · medium.com/@100trillionUSD · dated third-party coverage
Model-first, Bitcoin-only, monthly timeframe. PlanB does not trade intraday and does not touch altcoins in public. His toolkit is a short list of slow, on-chain and long-horizon indicators — the stock-to-flow ratio for valuation, the 200-week moving average and realized price as the floor zone in a bear market, and the monthly RSI as a regime filter (below 50 = downtrend). He speaks in probabilities and scenario lists rather than single targets, and he updates on a fixed monthly schedule instead of reacting to news. The strength is consistency: you always know what he thinks and when he said it. The weakness is the same thing — a supply-side model with a monthly clock is structurally blind to the demand shock or the exact turn, which is why he was still calling for lower prices on the day the 2026 low actually printed.
Long-term structurally bullish (S2F $500k this cycle), but through 2026 his short-term posture has been persistently bearish — repeatedly expecting one more leg down, including at the low itself.
Seven dated public statements from 2026, every one fetched and verified verbatim before it was charted — six from his own X posts, one preserved in NewsBTC's coverage. This is a deliberately complete sample of his in-window calls, not a highlight reel: the two that went against him are the two most recent bearish ones. His S2F 2019–2021 material is famous but falls outside the price window here, so it cannot be charted — it is covered in the background section instead, including the 2021 miss.
“IMO there are 4 bitcoin bear market scenarios: 1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k 2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k 3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k 4) yesterday’s $72.9k was the bottom”
With BTC at $75,628 he put four possible floors on the table. Price then fell −22.6% to $58,566 — inside his scenario 2, the $50k–60k moving-average / realized-price band — and now trades at $78,994 (+4.5%). Scored honestly: this was a menu of four scenarios, not one call, so it cannot count as a precision hit. It counts as played out because the real low landed in the band he named as the historical base case, and because his two shallow scenarios ($70k, and “$72.9k was the bottom”) were both wrong. Note also that the original post was later deleted by the author; the verbatim text survives in NewsBTC's article, which is what we link and verified against.
SourcePlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.com“I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range).”
Two legs, one landed. From $68,107 Bitcoin did dip under his 200-week MA — the low after this post was $58,566 (−14.0%), just below the $59k he named. The second leg never happened: realized price at $54k was never tested, and the “next leg up towards $500k” is nowhere in sight, with BTC at $78,994 (+16.0%) and a post-call high of $82,018 (+20.4%). Half-right and still unresolved, so we log it open rather than credit it.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44) — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs but IMO bitcoin will go lower🔵before next bull market🔴”
A direction call, not a level. From $68,672 Bitcoin went lower exactly as he said — −14.7% to $58,566 — before recovering to $78,994 (+15.0%). The “lower first” half played out cleanly. The “new ATHs” half is untested: at $78,994 Bitcoin is still roughly 37% below the October $126k high he refers to, so this card credits the near-term read only.
𝕏 PostNo doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).”
His cleanest call of the year, and the one against a market that was split. With BTC at $73,599 — and a poll of the market at 50/50 on whether February's low was the bottom — he put better-than-even odds on a break below $61k. Bitcoin fell −20.4% to $58,566 within about five weeks, straight through that level. It has since recovered to $78,994 (+7.3%). Correct on direction, level and timing.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed May at $73,568 — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...”
Posted on the low itself. Bitcoin was $58,566, and his historical argument — every prior bear bottom printed beneath realized price, then ~$52k — pointed to more downside. There was none. The lowest price after this post is the same $58,566 (0.0%), and Bitcoin has run to $78,994, +34.9% from the day he posted. The pattern he was waiting to complete never completed, and the bottom he was waiting for was already in.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed June at $58,526 — below the 200-week MA — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range)”
The headline thesis, restated with a timeframe he gave as this cycle, 2026–2028. Far too early to judge. Since the post BTC dipped only −3.4% to $62,803 and now sits at $78,994 (+21.6%) — direction with him, magnitude nowhere near it: $500k is still about 6x from here, and Bitcoin has not yet reclaimed the $126k he says was not the top. Logged open, to be settled by the end of the cycle, not this quarter.
𝕏 PostOct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized).”
The framing was right — a bottoming process had indeed started — but the tradeable part was the expectation of a further drop below realized price ($52k). It has gone the other way. From $62,897 the deepest dip since is $62,803 (−0.1%), and Bitcoin is $78,994, +25.6% in under four weeks. In fairness, his own 1–3 month window does not close until around November 2026, so this can still resolve; as of today price has moved decisively against the call.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed July $62,818 · monthly RSI 43 — @100trillionUSD↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated expectation against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote was verified against the live source (X syndication API or the article HTML) — links on each card. Near-term marks can flip: his August “1–3 month” bottoming window does not close until around November 2026.
PlanB is unusual among big crypto accounts: there is no paid group, no course and no token on his channels. What is visible is an exchange affiliate link on his own site, plus the reputational economics of being the person whose model gets quoted. Both are worth knowing before you weigh a bullish post.
His site planbtc.com links out to Bybit through a partner/affiliate URL (partner.bybit.com/b/planb). Affiliate deals typically pay on sign-ups and trading fees — an incentive that rewards activity, not accuracy.
X, YouTube and Medium are free and, as of this page's date, we found no publicly advertised paid signal service, course or newsletter. Monetisation is indirect: audience, sponsorship and platform revenue.
His name is inseparable from Stock-to-Flow. A model that has been publicly wrong once already carries a strong pull toward defending it — read the long-term $500k posts with that in mind, alongside the 2021 miss he walked back.
“IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).”
01 Jun 2026 · his best 2026 call, on X — BTC then fell 20% into the low“ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...”
01 Jul 2026 · posted on the exact bottom — the pattern did not repeat“Will I ditch S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands.”
18 Dec 2021 · walking back his own invalidation test after the $100k miss — via ProtosQuotes transcribed from his own public videos; stated views, not recommendations.
His long-form output is a monthly Bitcoin analysis video — price, RSI, moving averages, realized price and stock-to-flow, in the same order every time. These are the most recent episodes publicly listed on his channel (his 2026 monthly videos are referenced in his posts but are not publicly available on the channel at the time of writing):
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis December 2025Monthly close, RSI and realized price — the format every call above comes from.04 Dec 2025
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis November 2025The month after the $126k high he now calls a local top, not the cycle top.01 Nov 2025
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis October 2025Pre-top read, useful for judging how his model handled the turn.03 Oct 2025
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis August 2025Standard monthly walkthrough of S2F, the 200-week MA and RSI.04 Aug 2025PlanB is a model-builder rather than a podcast regular, but his framework sits at the centre of an argument the whole cycle-analysis crowd is having. These are the voices whose work most directly overlaps or collides with his — dossier links connect them as the database grows.
The closest cousin: another halving-cycle framework, but built on price structure and time-since-halving rather than supply ratios.
Quantitative cycle analyst and a persistent critic of over-fitted supply models — the data-driven counterweight to S2F.
Macro-liquidity thinker who explains the same cycles through global liquidity and the dollar rather than scarcity.
Bitcoin-first macro commentator who leans on the same 200-week moving average PlanB uses as his bear-market floor.
PlanB is the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow model, published on Medium in March 2019. His real identity has never been made public; he describes himself as a Dutch institutional investor with a quantitative finance background. He posts as @100trillionUSD on X — a reference to the Zimbabwean 100-trillion-dollar hyperinflation note.
Not for the 2021 cycle. S2F implied six figures, and in June 2021 he said he would call the model invalidated if Bitcoin had not reached $100k by December. It did not — Bitcoin ended 2021 around $46k — and in December he chose not to invalidate it, saying he liked being at the lower bands. His current S2F number for the 2024–2028 cycle is $500k in a $250k–$1m range — unproven either way.
As of mid-2026 he maintains that October's $126k high was not the cycle top and that stock-to-flow points to roughly $500k, in a $250k–$1m range, at some point in 2026–2028. In the short term he has been repeatedly bearish through 2026, expecting a bottom below realized price that has not printed.
He is consistent and checkable, which is rarer than being right. On the record here: three of seven dated 2026 calls played out, two are still open, and two went against him — including one posted on the exact low. His famous 2021 forecast missed by more than half. Treat his posts as a dated, public opinion from a model with known blind spots, never as a signal to trade.
PlanB is a model, a calendar and a lot of patience: Bitcoin only, monthly timeframe, same indicators every time. How close is your instinct — measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials (his own dated X posts and dated third-party coverage, linked on each call). Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you PlanB? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 25 August 2026
