@TheRealPlanC
A Bitcoin-only modeller who mostly publishes probabilities, but now and then commits to a sentence that can be graded. In 2026 he made several, and the record splits cleanly in two. He declared the 2026 low was in at $60,000 in April, and it was not. Then in August he told his followers the bottom was behind them, and this time the market agreed.
In short. Plan C builds statistical models of Bitcoin's long-run price, chiefly the Bitcoin Quantile Model, and posts dated cycle calls to about 218,000 followers on X. On our sample of five in-window posts the record is 2 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The misses came first: on 16 April he wrote that “the Bitcoin low for 2026 was $60,000”, and on 23 May he named $74,500–$76,000 as support. Bitcoin broke that zone five days later and set its 2026 low of $58,566 on 1 July. That is only 2.4% under his $60,000, but it is under. The wins came at the other end: on 21 August, at $73,021, he congratulated holders who “didn't capitulate”. Bitcoin has not printed a lower daily mark since, and it cleared the May highs he flagged on 22 September. His April forecast of a $90,000–$130,000 year-end is still open with one quarter left.
Plan C posts as @TheRealPlanC (X user id 1301215504686694400, account opened September 2020, blue-verified). His X bio reads simply “Bitcoin Quantile Framework ⎮ Math Models”. The BTC Prague 2026 speaker page describes him as an “Independent Bitcoin data researcher with six years of full-time research” and the creator of the Bitcoin Refraction Model, with the tagline “No hopium, just math.” In October 2025 he released Bitcoin Quantile Model v2, which he calls his “flagship quantile framework”. By his own account it fits 999 quantile levels to more than 133,000 data points and is “cycle-length agnostic”. That means it does not assume Bitcoin must follow a four-year cycle.
Several things are not on the record, so this page does not state them. There is no public legal name, no country and no stated employer. Do not confuse him with PlanB (@100trillionUSD), the Stock-to-Flow modeller who has his own page on this site. They are different people with different models. Pronouns on this page follow press usage (Bitcoin News wrote “his Bitcoin Quantile Model”); he has not stated them himself.
Most of the feed is model updates, polls and quantile readings, and none of that can be graded. What can be graded is the plain-English sentence he sometimes attaches: a low, a support zone, a year-end range. Five in-window posts qualified. Three more were examined and excluded, and two of those would have scored as wins. Each exclusion is listed with its reason in the verified corpus. Also not charted: his long-running case against the four-year cycle. His 23 August post scores the years green or red and marks 2026 green, 2027 green, 2028 red. Those are forecasts for whole calendar years, and none can be settled before 31 December.
Sources: x.com/TheRealPlanC (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · btcprague.com speaker page
Probability first, price second. The toolkit is regression, not chart patterns. Quantile regression places today's price inside Bitcoin's whole historical distribution, so the output is a reading such as “31st percentile”, not a target. Around that he adds macro evidence such as Strategy's buying pace, plus a few key support zones taken from past price. The strength is long-horizon framing that does not depend on the four-year cycle. The weakness shows when he turns a probability into a point claim: “the low for 2026 was $60,000” is a much harder sentence than any quantile, and it is the one that missed.
Structurally bullish. He argues against the four-year bear-cycle script and expects a recovery in 2026 and a cycle peak in 2027. In this sample he never posted a bearish target. His misses were cases of calling the floor too early, not of being short.
Five dated posts from @TheRealPlanC, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 2 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. Read it in order and it tells one story. In spring he called the floor too early: the low he named in April and the support he named in May both broke, and the breaks ended at $58,566 on 1 July. In August he made the same bullish call again, closer to the turn, and this time it held. From 21 August Bitcoin never printed a lower daily mark, and on 22 September it cleared the May highs he had pointed to. The April year-end range of $90,000–$130,000 is the one card still open.
“Bitcoin just needs to clear and confirm a breakout above the May 2026 highs.”
He named the trigger for the next leg. The May high was a daily mark of $82,018 on 11 May, and Bitcoin was at $78,974 when he posted. It first dipped to $75,590 (−4.3%) on 16 September. It then cleared the level on 22 September, reaching $86,597 (+9.7%). It has not closed back under the May high since and holds $83,448 (+5.7%). Cleared and, so far, confirmed. The post gave no target beyond the breakout, so the grade covers only the breakout.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin just needs to clear and confirm a breakout” — @TheRealPlanC on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin: Congrats to everyone that didn't capitulate. 2027 will be a great year.”
A bottom call, worded as congratulations. Posted at $73,021, and Bitcoin has not printed a lower daily mark since: the post-day mark is still the floor. It ran +18.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $83,448 (+14.3%). On the same day he added that a more traditional bear market “would have bottomed in Q4 at $35,000 to $40,000”, so the claim graded here is that the low was in. The “2027 will be a great year” half cannot be tested yet and is not scored. This is the call his April post tried to make, made four months later and much closer to the actual turn.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin: Congrats to everyone that didn't capitulate.” — @TheRealPlanC on X↗ x.com“Support from April 2025, is $74,500 to $76,000.”
A named support zone, posted at $75,478 inside it, the day after what he called a “very positive” bounce at $74,500. It held for five days. On 28 May Bitcoin closed at $74,340, under the zone, and kept falling to $58,566 (−22.4%) on 1 July. It did not close back above $74,500 until 22 August, at $78,318. It now holds $83,448 (+10.6%), above the zone again, but support that gives way by 22% has not held. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin holding key support, not random.” — @TheRealPlanC on X↗ x.com“Recovery in 2026. Year-end between $90k and $130k.”
His year-end range, posted at $75,858. He based it on Strategy's buying pace, which he said was 60 times its 2022 rate, and added “True cycle peak in 2027.” The route was rough: Bitcoin fell −22.8% to $58,566 before recovering. It reached $86,597 (+14.2%) on 22 September and holds $83,448 (+10.0%). The “recovery” half is on track. The range is not reached yet: the bottom of it, $90,000, is another +7.9% from today, with one quarter left. This stays open until 31 December.
𝕏 Post“For anyone who thinks 2026 is preordained … to be a bear market” — @TheRealPlanC on X↗ x.com“The Bitcoin low for 2026 was $60,000.”
A flat, past-tense claim with no hedge, posted at $74,826. Bitcoin first closed below $60,000 on 26 June, at $59,727. It printed five daily marks under the line and set the year's low of $58,566 (−21.7%) on 1 July. The miss was narrow, only 2.4% under his number, and the recovery he expected did come: $86,597 (+15.7%) on 22 September, and $83,448 (+11.5%) now. But the sentence named a low and price went below it, so it scores against him. It was also posted eleven weeks before the real bottom.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin low for 2026 was $60,000.” — @TheRealPlanC on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. A post earns a card only if it makes a claim the other cards do not already test. Three in-window posts were excluded as restatements or as unresolvable probability statements, and two of them would have scored as wins. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark, and a wick below a level may not appear. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Unusually for an account this size, there is not much to disclose. It is still worth stating what we checked.
In October 2025 he described himself as “a full-time, unpaid Bitcoin researcher” and asked supporters only to “bookmark, repost, and comment”. His X profile lists no website. We found no paid newsletter, course, signal group or exchange referral link in his recent posts.
He appears on other people's shows. On 9 September he was a guest on Bitcoin Uncharted, a weekly show on the @MrMPodcast YouTube channel, and he spoke at BTC Prague 2026. We do not know whether these appearances are paid. Exposure from shows like these builds an audience that can be monetised later.
He is openly a long-term Bitcoin holder; his posts congratulate those who “didn't capitulate”. Someone who holds what he forecasts has a stake in a bullish reading. That is the general caution, and every call on this page is Bitcoin.
“The Bitcoin low for 2026 was $60,000.”
16 Apr 2026 · the low that wasn't“Recovery in 2026. Year-end between $90k and $130k.”
21 Apr 2026 · the range still open“Bitcoin: Congrats to everyone that didn't capitulate. 2027 will be a great year.”
21 Aug 2026 · the bottom call that heldQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
There is no video library to link. Plan C publishes on X; his models are posted as charts there, and he has no channel of his own that we could confirm. He appears as a guest on other people's shows, such as Bitcoin Uncharted on @MrMPodcast. That is why every call above is a timestamped post rather than a clip. The full corpus, including the three in-window posts we examined and excluded, is cited on every card.
An anonymous, independent Bitcoin data researcher who posts as @TheRealPlanC on X to about 218,000 followers. He builds statistical price models, chiefly the Bitcoin Quantile Model, and was a speaker at BTC Prague 2026. His real name and country are not public. He is not PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow modeller.
On our sample of five dated 2026 posts: two played out, one is still open, two went against. His April claim that the 2026 low was $60,000 failed (the low was $58,566 on 1 July), and so did the $74,500–$76,000 support he named in May. His 21 August bottom call held: Bitcoin has not printed a lower daily mark since, and it broke above the May highs he flagged.
A quantile-regression model of Bitcoin's long-run price. It fits hundreds of percentile lines to the full price history and reports where today's price sits within that distribution. It is cycle-length agnostic, so it does not assume a four-year cycle, and it gives a range of outcomes rather than a single target.
Not that we could find. He describes himself as an unpaid researcher, his X profile links no paid product, and all the calls on this page were posted free on X.
Not publicly known, and no credible figure exists. Ignore any specific number you see attached to his name.
Plan C trusts the distribution, not the candle. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
Now put your approach to work. Test your edge on live market data with no capital at risk in a free BuyCrypt tournament with real prizes.
Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: dated X posts captured from X's public endpoints and the sources linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Plan C? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 1 October 2026
