@MerlijnTrader
A Dutch chart account that posts one idea at a time, in capitals, with a single annotated chart: this year is rhyming with 2018 / 2022 / 2017, and here is the level that decides it. High output, very legible, and — unusually for the genre — almost always attached to a number you can check later. So we checked.
In short. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn posts as @MerlijnTrader to roughly 380,000 followers, with a far smaller YouTube channel (16.2K subscribers, active since June 2021, ~1.1M lifetime views) that re-tells the same daily thesis in video form. The X account carries an affiliation badge for @cryptorover — Crypto Rover's business label — so the two accounts sit inside the same media operation rather than being independent voices that happen to agree. His YouTube channel states its own project plainly: “The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, documented live.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
Fractal-first technical analysis. The engine is analogy: find a past year whose chart looks like this one (2017, 2018, 2022), assume the structure repeats, then name the level that proves it. Around that he uses Wyckoff accumulation phases (spring, mark-up), moving-average crosses, Stochastic RSI, a dashboard of ~30 cycle peak indicators, and on-chain or macro headlines (validator exit queues, Fed rate expectations, ETF filings) as confirmation. The strength is falsifiability — he commits to numbers like “$60K is the decision” or “DCA zone $48–59K”. The weakness is the same thing the method promises: when the analogue does not repeat, the conclusion is not merely early, it is inverted, and his posts rarely carry a position size or an invalidation price for the reader.
Structurally bullish — the recurring conclusion is that the bottom is in and the crowd sold it. The bearish posts in this sample are short-term and conditional; the bullish ones are the thesis.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under his level. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
This is the part of the file that matters most with a high-output chart account: Merlijn's public business is attention and promotion, sold from the same handle that publishes the analysis. None of this is hidden — it is all on his own link page — but it should sit next to the charts.
His public link page sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” and invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”. Projects can therefore buy reach from the same account that posts market analysis. Assume any token or platform named in a post could be a commercial relationship unless he says otherwise.
The same page brands him a consultant and business coach with a “Book a Strategy Call” offer — audience converted into fee income, which rewards posting volume and confidence over caution.
His X account carries an affiliation badge for @cryptorover. Two accounts from one operation agreeing with each other is not two independent confirmations — weigh it once, not twice.
His YouTube channel states the project as “turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, documented live. That is disclosure, not a conflict — but it does mean a structurally bullish Bitcoin book behind structurally bullish Bitcoin posts.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · the road-map that missed both legs“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · four days before the actual ETH low“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · the death-cross line that broke without the crashQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
He publishes near-daily Bitcoin videos on a far smaller channel than his X following suggests. Recent uploads, dated from the channel feed:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge MistakeShort-term dip, long-term bull — the posture this dossier charts.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes NextThe 2022 fractal that drives most of his 2026 calls.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY BegunThe bullish cycle thesis, stated without a level.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson HoleMacro-event framing ahead of the August rally.28 Aug 2026A Dutch crypto chart analyst who posts as @MerlijnTrader to roughly 380,000 followers on X, with a smaller YouTube channel (16.2K subscribers). His surname is not public. He is known for all-caps single-chart posts that compare the current market to a past year — 2017, 2018, 2022 — and name one level that decides the outcome.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
He sells promotion openly: his public link page lists “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”, invites DMs for business and partnerships, and offers paid strategy calls. His X account also carries an affiliation badge for @cryptorover. Assume a named project could be a commercial relationship unless stated otherwise.
Fractal analogy plus one decision level. He overlays a past year's chart structure on the present — Wyckoff accumulation, golden/death crosses, Stochastic RSI, a ~30-signal cycle peak dashboard — then commits to a number such as “$60K is the decision” or “DCA zone $48–59K”. It makes him easy to check; it also means that when the analogue fails, the conclusion is inverted rather than merely early.
Merlijn trades by analogy: find the year this chart is copying, then defend one level. How close is your instinct — measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
Either way, the only honest test is a live one. Run your read on real market data — no capital at risk — in a free BuyCrypt tournament with real prizes.
Informational and educational analysis built strictly from public material: his own dated X posts, captured verbatim with their timestamps and linked on every call, plus his public channel and link pages. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Merlijn? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 29 September 2026
