@matthew_sigel
VanEck's head of digital assets research. The monthly memos he co-signs called capitulation on 18 August at $64,491, and Bitcoin never closed lower after that. But on 11 May he wrote “Bitcoin looks cheap” at $82,018, before a fall to $58,566. In June and July the memos expected weak returns just before a rise of about a third.
In short. Matthew Sigel runs digital assets research at VanEck, a fund manager, and posts on X as @matthew_sigel. On our sample of eight in-window calls the record is 2 played out, 2 open, 4 went against. His capitulation call in August and his bullish call in September were right. His May view and the memos' June and July warnings were not.
Matthew Sigel is head of digital assets research at VanEck, the US fund manager. His X bio also lists him as portfolio manager of the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF ($NODE), and his display name calls him a “recovering CFA”. In his own posts he says he once worked in New York as a reporter for NHK, Japan's national broadcaster, and that he went to Harvard.
He appears often on CNBC and other business TV. Four of the calls here come from VanEck's monthly Bitcoin ChainCheck, a data memo on options, futures and on-chain flows. VanEck's pages list him as co-author with Patrick Bush, and with Griffin MacMaster from July. We count those memos as his views because he signs them, but they are team work. He also posts them on X.
He gives long-range targets as well. On 6 May he told CNBC Bitcoin could reach $1 million in five years, and in October he named $500,000 as VanEck's long-term “north star”. Those horizons run past our price window and are not graded. An earlier miss matters: crypto.news reported that his base case for the last cycle was $180,000. Bitcoin peaked at about $126,000 in October 2025.
Sources: x.com/matthew_sigel (own posts) · vaneck.com (ChainCheck memos) · cnbc.com · crypto.news · stocktwits.com
Data first, long-term bull. Matthew reads Bitcoin through options skew, funding rates, holder behaviour and miner flows, then ties it to fiscal and monetary policy. He is bullish on Bitcoin over years and says the four-year cycle still holds. The memos he co-signs are more careful and often expect weak returns in the short run.
Bullish on Bitcoin over a one-year horizon all through the window. In April he said $100,000 within a year was “totally reasonable”, and in May he expected a new all-time high within a year. On 11 May he called Bitcoin cheap at $82,018. The VanEck memos he co-signs were more cautious in June and July. In August the memo said capitulation had happened. In September he said the calendar favoured Bitcoin bulls.
Eight dated calls from Matthew Sigel, each checked verbatim against its source and charted against real price. The tally is 2 played out, 2 open, 4 went against.
“Very unlikely that policymakers are going to address this unsustainable fiscal dynamic, and then as and if liquidity eases, you know that would be a turbocharge for bitcoin.”
Said on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia at $76,371. He also said the calendar was “very much in your favor if you're a bitcoin bull”, and CNBC reported that he saw Bitcoin at $100,000 by next year. That level is still open. Bitcoin never closed lower after the interview. It rose to $86,597 (+13.4%) on 22 September and is at $83,778 (+9.7%). As a direction call, played out.
SourceBitcoin is set to hit a key level by next year as fiscal worries prop up the cryptocurrency: VanEck — CNBC↗ cnbc.com“We have witnessed what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation.”
Published at $64,491, with “8 of 12 capitulation signals” firing. He posted it on X the same day. The memo also warned that, inside six months, history gave “no edge”. Bitcoin never closed lower after that day. The cycle low had come on 1 July, at $58,566. It rose to $86,597 (+34.3%) on 22 September and is at $83,778 (+29.9%). Played out.
SourceVanEck Mid-August 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck — Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel, Griffin MacMaster↗ vaneck.com“Taken together, the options and futures complex points to below-average forward returns over the near-to-medium term.”
Published at $64,670. The memo said both signals were weakest over 30 to 180 days. The first month held: Bitcoin dipped to $62,773 (−2.9%) on 2 August and was at $64,686 (0.0%) on 19 August. Then it rose to $86,597 (+33.9%) on 22 September. It is at $83,778 (+29.5%). Returns were far above average, so this went against.
SourceVanEck Mid-July 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck — Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel, Griffin MacMaster↗ vaneck.com“a level that has historically coincided with capitulation rather than profit-taking and has been associated with below-normal forward returns over the following one to six months.”
Published at $64,445. The memo saw holders capitulating, but expected weak returns for one to six months. Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−9.1%) on 1 July and was at $63,905 (−0.8%) on 18 July. Three months on, on 18 September, it was at $76,371 (+18.5%). It rose to $86,597 (+34.4%) on 22 September and is at $83,778 (+30.0%). Only the first month fit, so this went against.
SourceVanEck Mid-June 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck — Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel↗ vaneck.com“Bitcoin looks cheap. If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we're looking at $160k, and that's just catching up to where equities already are.”
Posted at $82,018, the highest close before the summer fall. The $160,000 figure was a condition, not a target with a date. Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−28.6%) on 1 July. It got back to $86,597 (+5.6%) on 22 September and is at $83,778 (+2.1%). A buyer on the day sat through a fall of more than a quarter. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin looks cheap.” — @matthew_sigel on X↗ x.com“likely to reach its all-time high again”
Said on CNBC on 8 May at $80,025. Stocktwits reported the next day that he meant within the next year. The record is about $126,000, from October 2025. In the same interview he said “A 10% correction in Bitcoin is no big thing”. The fall that followed was bigger, to $58,566 (−26.8%) on 1 July. Bitcoin is at $83,778 (+4.7%), and the deadline runs to May 2027. Open.
Source“A Sea Change”: VanEck's Sigel Says Bitcoin Headed Back To Record Highs — Stocktwits↗ stocktwits.com“Funding Rates Turn Negative: A Contrarian Buy Signal”
Published at $78,275. The memo noted that since 2020, after negative funding, Bitcoin's 30-day return had averaged +11.5%. It rose to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May but was at $76,684 (−2.0%) after 30 days, on 24 May. It then fell to $58,566 (−25.2%) on 1 July. It is at $83,778 (+7.0%). As a buy signal, it went against.
SourceVanEck Mid-April 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck — Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel↗ vaneck.com“I think a $100,000 Bitcoin again is totally reasonable in one year's time.”
Said on CNBC's Power Lunch on 2 April at $67,960. Bitcoin rose to $82,018 (+20.7%) on 11 May, then fell to $58,566 (−13.8%) on 1 July. Its highest close since is $86,597 (+27.4%), on 22 September. It is at $83,778 (+23.3%). $100,000 has not been reached, and the deadline runs to April 2027. Open.
SourceVanEck's Matthew Sigel says $100k Bitcoin “totally reasonable” within a year — crypto.news↗ crypto.newsOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the page linked on its card. Each call is charted at that day's midnight CoinGecko mark. The 11 May post went out at 15:15 UTC. Four cards come from VanEck's monthly ChainCheck memo, which he co-signs with Patrick Bush (and Griffin MacMaster from July), so those quotes are the team's words. The 2 April and 8 May cards are TV remarks quoted by the outlet linked on the card, a day after the interview. The “$1,000 in” line on each card assumes buying Bitcoin on the day. On the cards that expected weak returns, it shows what a buyer would have made, not what the memo said to do.
Matthew's X posts and VanEck's ChainCheck memos are free to read. Here is how his work is paid for.
He is head of digital assets research at VanEck, which sells crypto funds, including a spot Bitcoin ETF. Fund fees grow with assets, so his employer gains when investors buy crypto. Every ChainCheck memo states: “Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin.”
He is portfolio manager of the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF ($NODE), which holds spot Bitcoin, Bitcoin miners and other crypto companies. He promotes it on X, and the fund earns fees on its assets.
On 21 August he posted that his personal crypto holdings are “roughly 50% Bitcoin / 50% NODE”. He added that he had bought more NODE to stay a top-10 shareholder. His X bio links to a disclosures page.
“We have witnessed what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation.”
18 Aug 2026 · played out“I think a $100,000 Bitcoin again is totally reasonable in one year's time.”
2 Apr 2026 · open“Bitcoin looks cheap.”
11 May 2026 · went againstQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
Matthew posts on X most days, mostly about Bitcoin miners, AI data centres and crypto stocks, and VanEck publishes his ChainCheck memo each month.
Head of digital assets research at VanEck, the US fund manager, and portfolio manager of the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF ($NODE). He posts on X as @matthew_sigel, with about 66,000 followers, and co-signs VanEck's monthly Bitcoin ChainCheck memo.
On our sample of eight dated calls from 2 April to 18 September 2026: two played out, two are open, four went against. The August capitulation call and the September bullish call were right. The 11 May “Bitcoin looks cheap” post and the memos' April, June and July calls were not.
A free monthly memo from VanEck on Bitcoin's options, futures, on-chain activity and miners. VanEck lists Matthew Sigel as co-author with Patrick Bush, and with Griffin MacMaster from July.
Yes. On 21 August 2026 he posted that his personal crypto holdings are about half Bitcoin and half the NODE ETF he manages.
Not publicly known, and no credible figure exists. Ignore any specific number you see attached to the name.
Matthew reads Bitcoin through options, funding and holder data. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: his public X posts and profile, VanEck's published memos, and the sources linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Matthew? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 14 October 2026
