@markus10x
The founder of 10x Research, a Singapore research firm sold to funds and traders, and widely quoted in the crypto press. His late-May warning that buyers were giving up on Ether played out, with ETH down 22.6% a month later. His two bear-market bottom calls did not: he looked for $55,000 in late June and $46,000–$47,000 in early July, but Bitcoin's lowest daily mark in our window was $58,566 on 1 July, and it rose from there.
In short. Markus Thielen runs 10x Research, a paid research service, and is quoted by CoinDesk, Cointelegraph and others most weeks. He posts as @markus10x to about 4,800 followers on X, mostly reposts of his firm's account. On our sample of four calls from 28 May to 15 August, the record is 1 played out, 2 went against, 1 open. The misses were his two calls for a lower Bitcoin bottom, made within days of the actual low in our window.
Markus Thielen is head of research at 10x Research, which he founded in November 2023 and which is based in Singapore. His own site lists earlier roles as head of research and strategy at the crypto platform Matrixport, founder and CIO of the macro fund Jomon Investment Management, macro portfolio manager at Millennium, seven years at JP Morgan's Chief Investment Office, and head of quantitative and derivatives strategy for Asia at Morgan Stanley. He wrote the book Crypto Titans.
10x Research publishes several reports a week on Bitcoin, Ether, altcoins, crypto stocks and macro. The reports are signed by the firm and written as “we”; newsrooms quote them and usually name him as the author. His X account, @markus10x, mostly reposts the firm's account @10xResearch.
His method mixes ETF and stablecoin flows, funding rates, the dollar, inflation and the Fed, and cycle and seasonal models. In June he argued that Bitcoin's fall was driven by inflation and ETF selling rather than by Strategy's sales. He then expected the bear market to run deeper and later than it did.
This page grades only quotes that a newsroom attributes to him by name, in quotation marks. We did not chart the firm's unsigned report lines, or outlet paraphrases with no quote of his. His X bio claims an “Aug ‘26 bottom”. In our window the lowest daily mark was 1 July, and his published targets of $55,000 and $46,000–$47,000 were not reached. A 3 August report said an August close above $63,000 would confirm the bottom; Bitcoin closed August at $77,658.
Sources: CoinDesk · Coinpedia · Cointelegraph Magazine · markusthielen.com · 10xresearch.com · x.com/markus10x · CoinGecko
Flows and macro first. Markus reads Bitcoin through ETF flows, inflation prints, the dollar and the Fed, then fits the result to cycle and seasonal timing. That framing caught the spring sell-off and Ether's slide. It also made him too bearish too late: his two bottom targets came within days of the actual low, and Bitcoin rose 38.2% after the first of them.
Leaning bearish. He was bearish on Bitcoin and Ether from May to July, looked for a deeper bottom into the autumn, and in August said he did not expect new highs next year.
Four dated calls from Markus Thielen charted against real price: one on Ether and three on Bitcoin, each a quote that CoinDesk, Coinpedia or Cointelegraph attributes to him. The tally is 1 played out, 2 went against, 1 open. His 28 May warning that people were giving up on ETH played out. His calls for a Bitcoin bottom at $55,000 (24 June) and at $46,000–$47,000 (4 July) went against. His 15 August view that Bitcoin would not make new highs next year is open.
“So I wouldn’t argue that next year we’re gonna see new highs. If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement”
Said in a Cointelegraph interview published on 15 August, when the mark was $62,984. Bitcoin dipped to $62,844 (−0.2%) on 17 August, then rose to $86,597 (+37.5%) on 22 September, its highest mark in our window. $100,000 would be +58.8% from the mark. It sits at $81,764 (+29.8%). The call is about next year — open.
SourceBitcoin $1M by 2030 is ‘mathematically impossible’ says Markus Thielen — Cointelegraph Magazine↗ cointelegraph.com“There’s no real buyer in the market right now,”
Coinpedia reported on 4 July that he said that week the recovery was unlikely to hold and that Bitcoin could fall to $46,000–$47,000 before its cycle low, then rally to $60,000–$65,000 by year-end. The 4 July mark was $62,554. Bitcoin dipped to $62,247 (−0.5%) on 9 July and never came near $47,000, which is −24.9% from the mark. It rose to $86,597 (+38.4%) on 22 September and sits at $81,764 (+30.7%). Went against.
SourceBitcoin Year-End Price Prediction 2026: $46,000 First Then 30% Rally to $65,000 — Coinpedia↗ coinpedia.org“The implication is patience now, attention in late August,”
CoinDesk reported that he saw Bitcoin breaking below $60,000 and reaching $55,000 before the cycle low, with the bottom likely between late August and October. The 24 June mark was $62,662. Bitcoin did break $60,000 and fell to $58,566 (−6.5%) on 1 July, the lowest mark in our window, but never reached $55,000 (−12.2%). It closed August at $77,658 (+23.9%), rose to $86,597 (+38.2%) on 22 September and sits at $81,764 (+30.5%). Went against.
SourceBitcoin could fall to $55,000 before finding a bottom, 10x Research says — CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“More and more people giving up on ETH as it doesn’t generate revenue and with higher bond yields the staking yield is unattractive. The only buyer has been Bitmine but they indicated that they will slow down their purchases”
Told CoinDesk in an email as Ether dropped below $2,000; the 28 May mark was $2,022. ETH fell to $1,858 (−8.1%) by 3 June and $1,566 (−22.6%) on 26 June. It did not close back above the 28 May mark until 20 August, then rose to $2,775 (+37.2%) on 22 September. It sits at $2,418 (+19.6%). The fall he described came first — played out.
SourceEther slides below $2,000 while futures open interest hits record high — CoinDesk↗ coindesk.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the article linked on its card, where the outlet puts it in quotation marks and attributes it to him. The price targets on the 24 June and 4 July cards are the outlets' summaries of his reports; the quote on each card is his own wording from the same article. The 4 July article says he made the call “this week”, so the card is measured from the 4 July mark. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks taken at 00:00 UTC, so intraday highs and lows do not show. Near-term marks can flip.
Markus's press quotes and X posts are free. His research is a paid product.
He founded and runs 10x Research, which sells subscriptions to its reports. Its website lists plans from $899 to $10,000 a year, plus a free tier of the market-update newsletter with paid upgrades. Most of the reports the press quotes are behind that paywall.
His site and X bio sell his record: “Called BTC bottom '22, $125K top '23. Oct ‘25 top & Aug ‘26 bottom.” The site also shows a back-tested model return it labels “Illustrative backtest.” The misses on this page are not mentioned there.
He is the author of Crypto Titans, sold on Amazon and promoted from the firm's X account. We found no disclosure of his personal Bitcoin or Ether holdings.
“More and more people giving up on ETH”
28 May 2026 · ETH −22.6% by 26 June“There’s no real buyer in the market right now,”
4 Jul 2026 · Bitcoin +38.4% instead of $46,000–$47,000“I wouldn’t argue that next year we’re gonna see new highs.”
15 Aug 2026 · Open — the call is about next yearQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
10x Research publishes several reports a week, mostly paid; newsrooms quote them almost daily. We graded only quotes the press attributes to Markus by name.
The founder and head of research of 10x Research, a Singapore crypto research firm. He previously ran research at Matrixport and worked at Millennium, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. CoinDesk and Cointelegraph quote him most weeks.
On our sample of four dated calls from May to August 2026: one played out, two went against, one is open. His late-May Ether warning played out; his calls for a Bitcoin bottom at $55,000 and at $46,000–$47,000 did not, as Bitcoin bottomed at $58,566 on 1 July.
He leaned bearish through mid-2026. In August he said a return to $100,000 would be a big achievement and that he did not expect new highs next year.
Yes. 10x Research sells research subscriptions, listed at $899 to $10,000 a year, and he wrote the book Crypto Titans.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: press articles quoting him by name, his own website and X profile, and the sources linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Markus? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 18 October 2026
