@MarkYusko
The endowment manager who talks in fair value, not price targets. Yusko runs Bitcoin through a network-value model, buys it when the model says it is cheap, and puts dates on the cycle — which makes him unusually checkable, and means the misses are checkable too.
In short. Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
Yusko (b. 1963, raised in Seattle) holds a BS from Notre Dame and an MBA from the University of Chicago. He joined the Notre Dame Investment Office as assistant investment officer in October 1993 and was its senior investment director until 1998, then founded and ran the UNC Management Company, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's endowment investment office, from 1998 to 2004. He brought the alternatives-heavy “endowment model” with him to both. In 2004 he founded Morgan Creek Capital Management, and in 2018 Morgan Creek Digital, which partnered with Bitwise to launch an institutional Digital Asset Index Fund. A 2026 interview described the digital arm as managing $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
The record is not uniformly good and the dossier says so: the Endowment Fund, his partnership with Salient Partners, grew to roughly $3.5 billion before performance problems led to his removal from it in January 2013. On crypto his conviction is long-standing — his X handle, “Two Point One Quadrillion,” is the number of satoshis in existence — and so is his long-horizon number: in a 15 February 2026 interview he said he was “pretty comfortable” that Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029. That same interview contains the call this dossier cannot chart but will not hide: he put this cycle's bottom at $58,000–$63,000 arriving around 30 September–1 October 2026. The level was nearly perfect — Bitcoin's low so far is $58,566 — but it printed on 1 July, three months early, and he spent the intervening months telling people the lows were already in.
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
Valuation-first macro, on an endowment clock. Yusko does not draw trendlines. He asks what a network is worth — Metcalfe's law applied to Bitcoin's users and transactions, via Tim Peterson's model — and buys when price is under that number, weekly, without trying to pick the day. Around that sits a top-down read on liquidity, fiat debasement, futures-market positioning and the four-year halving cycle, which he treats as a calendar precise to 364 days from the prior peak. The strength is that he will keep buying through a drawdown that scares everyone else. The weakness is the same trait: a model that says “cheap” at $70,000 says “cheap” at $60,000 too, and his cycle-timing calls have been repeatedly early.
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a ~$75–80k price, a $600–700k 2029 target), but explicitly cautious in the near term — as of 6 September he still called the tape “bear market action” and pointed at 5 October. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because the price window starts 23 February 2026.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. Four days on that is working: BTC has not traded lower since, ran to $81,236 (+7.5%) and sits at $80,368 (+6.3%). A short window — but the direction was right immediately.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. Two weeks later the exit is modestly offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $113 (+9.2%) and sits at $108 (+5.0%). Far too early to score a multi-year exit — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. So far the dip is small: low $75,590 (−5.3%), high $81,236 (+1.8%), now $80,368 (+0.7%). Neither the $60k nor his date has arrived — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
His best call of the year, and he made it without naming a level. Speaking to Cointelegraph ten days after Bitcoin's $58,566 low, with BTC at $64,111, he said Morgan Creek had been buying weekly since February against a fair value of $105,000–$108,000 and would keep going through October. BTC then ran to $81,265 (+26.8%) and sits at $80,368 (+25.4%), with a maximum dip of just −2.9% along the way.
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and is only +3.8% four months later.
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and is back to $80,368 (+2.7%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
With BTC around $69,849 he told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. Bitcoin lost −16.2% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $80,368 (+15.1%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026. His 6 September and 16 September calls are days old and his own cycle date (5 October) has not arrived — near-term marks can flip.
Yusko is not selling signals or a course. He runs a firm, and the incentive to know about is the plain one: he is an allocator talking his book on television, with a fund and a long-dated target attached to it.
His firm, founded 2004 — discretionary and advisory mandates run on the endowment model. Public bullishness on Bitcoin is inseparable from a business that allocates to it.
The 2018 digital-asset arm, which partnered with Bitwise on an institutional index fund; a 2026 interview put it at $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
He says roughly half his net worth sits in Bitcoin and Bitcoin-adjacent assets, against the “five, eight, or ten percent” he recommends to others — an unusually candid disclosure, and a reason to discount the intensity of the bull case.
He calls governance tokens with no claim on fees — naming Ethereum and Uniswap alongside Solana — “kind of scammy”. Read his Bitcoin-versus-altcoin framing knowing where his exposure is.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · the valuation rule in one line“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · how he actually executes it“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · the call that cost, four months early“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · still cautious into his 5 October dateQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
Yusko hosts nothing of his own — no channel, no newsletter, no paid group. He appears on other people's programmes, and that is where every call above was made. These are the primary videos behind the dossier, verified by title and upload date:
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV — the “it's on sale” interview charted above.16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph — the weekly-accumulation interview behind the 11 July call.10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily — the $58,000–$63,000 bottom and $600–700k 2029 target, just outside the chart window.8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast — the futures-suppression and AI-bubble framework he repeats all year.7 Jan 2026Mark W. Yusko (b. 1963) is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, which he started in 2004. He previously ran the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's endowment as head of the UNC Management Company (1998–2004) and was senior investment director at Notre Dame's investment office (1993–1998). He founded Morgan Creek Digital in 2018 and is one of the longest-standing institutional Bitcoin bulls.
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up 25.4% and 6.3%. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
Valuation-first and slow. He estimates what the Bitcoin network is worth using Metcalfe's law, buys weekly whenever price trades below that fair value rather than trying to time a low, and overlays a four-year halving cycle he dates precisely — 364 days from the prior peak, which puts this cycle's turn on 5 October 2026. He avoids leverage and short-term levels entirely, and is dismissive of governance tokens that carry no claim on network fees.
Yusko buys a number, not a chart: fair value first, weekly purchases, no attempt to catch the exact low. How close is your instinct — measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials (dated third-party coverage of his interviews, linked on each call). Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Mark? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 20 September 2026
