@TimmerFidelity
The power-law man at Fidelity. Timmer runs global macro in Fidelity's asset-allocation group and posts his Bitcoin charts on X almost every week — a curve fitted through every cycle since 2015, a support line under it, and a gold ratio beside it. Because he posts dated levels, his record can be checked.
In short. Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, where he has worked since 1995, and a Chartered Market Technician. His Bitcoin framework is a power-law model — a trendline with a support curve beneath it that has caught every major low since 2015 — read alongside the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and the four-year cycle. In 2026 he kept pointing to $60k as the floor through the winter, called the July zone an accumulation zone just before the low, and by late September said a new cyclical bull market was underway, with $100k and then $300k by 2029 as targets. His December 2025 support band of $65–75k did not hold.
Timmer has been in the investment industry since 1985. Before Fidelity he was a vice president in the fixed-income group at ABN AMRO. He joined Fidelity in 1995 as a technical research analyst, became director of market research, and moved to the Global Asset Allocation group in 2005. From 2007 to 2014 he co-managed the Fidelity Global Strategies Fund. He holds a bachelor's degree in finance from Babson College and the CMT designation. Today he writes the market-strategy material Fidelity gives to clients and the media.
On Bitcoin he is a long-standing secular bull who still respects the cycle. On 18 December 2025 he wrote that 2026 could be a “year off” for Bitcoin, with support at $65–75k. The year-off part was right. The support band was not: BTC closed as low as $58,566 on 1 July 2026, below his range. He then moved his floor to $60k and has argued from there ever since. That December post falls outside the chart window, but it belongs on the record.
Sources: x.com/TimmerFidelity · Fidelity and CMT Association bios · dated coverage (CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin.com)
Model-driven cycle macro. Timmer does not trade candles. He fits Bitcoin's whole price history to a power-law curve, marks the support line beneath it, measures how far price sits below trend, and checks that against the 52-week Z-score of BTC/gold and the length of past four-year winters. When the gauges reach 2018 and 2022 depths he calls it an accumulation zone. He adds a chartist's eye (bear flags, double bottoms, $80k resistance) and a liquidity overlay: he would not call a bottom in July because he saw no money-supply catalyst. The strength is a consistent, falsifiable framework. The weakness is that his support levels are zones, not tripwires, and the zone has already been undercut once this cycle.
A secular bitcoin bull who spent the first half of 2026 waiting out the winter. Since 18 September 2026 he has been explicitly bullish, saying a new four-year cycle is underway.
Seven dated stances from Timmer's own X posts, charted against real price. They trace a single framework through the 2026 winter: the $60k floor in March, a base-building read in April that came before a further −25% drop, the accumulation-zone call in July a few days before the low, and the late-September bull-market call. Four of the seven are only weeks old and are logged open. His December 2025 $65–75k support band missed. It predates the window and is disclosed in the background above.
“Bitcoin’s power law math continues to suggest that a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029.”
His headline target, based on the power-law curve: a new cyclical bull market running to $300k in 2029. It is a three-year claim. From $84,076 BTC has moved between −0.9% and +0.4% and sits at $83,346 (−0.9%). This chart cannot settle it, so it is logged open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — power law, $300k in 2029↗ x.com“Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting here as it challenges key resistance at $80k. If it breaks it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100k.”
A conditional chart call: a break of $80k confirms a double bottom with a $100k target. BTC was already at $84,378 on the day. It has peaked at $84,449 (+0.1%) and sits at $83,346 (−1.2%), still $16.7k short of the target. Open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — $80k resistance, double bottom to $100k↗ x.com“That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts, so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway.”
After almost a year above $60k, and with the BTC/gold Z-score turning positive, he called the winter over. So far it has gone his way. From $76,371 BTC has not closed lower, ran to $86,597 (+13.4%) and sits at $83,346 (+9.1%). But this is a multi-year regime call made ten days ago, so it stays open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — “a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway”↗ x.com“Bitcoin has held the floor of its power law curve and has now corrected long enough to satisfy the time element of its mild 4- year cycle winter.”
A cycle-timing read: the floor held and the correction had lasted long enough. From $80,268 BTC dipped −5.8% to $75,590, ran to $86,597 (+7.9%) and sits at $83,346 (+3.8%). That leans his way, but the move is small for a cycle call. Open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — the floor held, the winter's time element is satisfied↗ x.com“As for Bitcoin, it too may be in an accumulation zone (in my view). At $60k it’s getting ever closer to its power law support line.”
His best-timed call. With BTC nearing the power-law support line (about $58k on his chart) he called it an accumulation zone, while saying he was not yet calling a bottom. From $63,193 BTC dipped only −1.4% to $62,279, then ran to $86,597 (+37.0%). It sits at $83,346 (+31.9%). Played out.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — “it too may be in an accumulation zone”↗ x.com“my sense is that Bitcoin continues to build a large base here in preparation for the next major up wave.”
At a recovery high he allowed that the rally could be a bear flag, but leaned toward a base forming. The bear-flag reading came first. From $78,239 BTC fell −25.1% to $58,566 by 1 July, below the $60,033 low his base sat on. It then recovered to $86,597 (+10.7%) and is $83,346 (+6.5%) now. Anyone who bought his base took the full drawdown, so the call is not graded as played out. Open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — building a large base for the next up wave↗ x.com“Bitcoin has continued to search for a bottom, and I still think that the $60k is a good place to look.”
He put the floor at $60k and said in the same post that price “may well undercut it at some point”. That is how it went. From $70,417 BTC fell −16.8% to a $58,566 close on 1 July, a shallow undercut, and never went lower. It ran to $86,597 (+23.0%) and sits at $83,346 (+18.4%). Played out.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — “the $60k is a good place to look”↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated stance against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote was confirmed verbatim in the linked post (full text via fxtwitter, date via x_capture) before publishing. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Timmer is not an influencer and sells no signals. He is a salaried strategist at one of the world's largest asset managers. That is a cleaner incentive, but not a neutral one: Fidelity runs Bitcoin products and custody, and his posts are part of its client communication.
His job is market strategy for Fidelity's clients and the media. His X posts are an extension of that work, not a separate business.
Fidelity Digital Assets offers custody and trading, and Fidelity sponsors a spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC). A constructive view on Bitcoin fits his employer's product line, which is worth factoring in.
We found no paid signals group, course or token tied to him. The charts he posts are free.
“Bitcoin’s power law math continues to suggest that a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029.”
26 Sep 2026 · the headline target“As for Bitcoin, it too may be in an accumulation zone (in my view). At $60k it’s getting ever closer to its power law support line.”
10 Jul 2026 · days before the low“Bitcoin has continued to search for a bottom, and I still think that the $60k is a good place to look.”
13 Mar 2026 · the floor he keptQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
There is no video library to link. Timmer hosts no channel or podcast of his own, and his TV and podcast appearances are other people's programmes. His main output is the chart posts on @TimmerFidelity, and every call above links to one of them, with the quoted sentence confirmed verbatim in the post. For a long-form view of how he thinks, his October 2025 conversation with Barry Ritholtz on Masters in Business covers his career and his macro framework.
Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, part of its Global Asset Allocation group. He joined Fidelity in 1995, previously worked in fixed income at ABN AMRO, co-managed the Fidelity Global Strategies Fund from 2007 to 2014, and is a Chartered Market Technician.
On 26 September 2026 he wrote that Bitcoin's power-law math suggests a new cyclical bull market targeting $300k in 2029. A day earlier he said a break of $80k would confirm a double bottom targeting $100k.
In our 2026 window, 2 of 7 calls played out, 5 are still open and none have gone against him. His 10 July accumulation-zone call came days before the low and is up about 32%. His April base-building read came before a further 25% fall, and his December 2025 support band of $65–75k was broken.
It is a model that fits Bitcoin's entire price history to a curve on log-log axes, with a support line beneath it. Timmer's support line has caught every major low since 2015. He reads it together with the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and the length of past four-year cycle winters.
Timmer reads Bitcoin through a long-run model, cycle timing and the gold ratio, not daily candles. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
Now put your own approach on the record. Test your edge on live market data — no capital at risk — in a free BuyCrypt tournament with real prizes.
Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials — in this case Timmer's own dated X posts, linked on each call, and his published Fidelity biography. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Jurrien? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 28 September 2026
