@jjcmoreno
The head of research at the on-chain data firm CryptoQuant. He called the March bounce a relief rally inside a bear market, and warned of profit-taking on 5 May at $79,826, before the fall to $58,566. He was early on the August turn. But on the day of the bear-market low he hinted the bottom was not in, and a resistance level he flagged in April broke four days later.
In short. Julio Moreno is head of research at CryptoQuant and posts on X as @jjcmoreno. On our sample of seven in-window calls the record is 4 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. His demand-based regime reads were mostly right. His bottom-timing and one resistance level were not.
Julio Moreno is head of research at CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics company. His X bio says so, and CoinDesk quoted him in that role on 30 September 2026. His X location is San Salvador, El Salvador. His Substack profile describes him as an “Economist” and lists data science.
Most of his posts summarise CryptoQuant's weekly research: demand growth and contraction, profit-taking, and the firm's Bull Score Index, a 0–100 score built from ten indicators. Many posts describe data without taking a side. We charted only posts that state a regime, a risk or a level.
Before our price window, in October 2025, he told the Milk Road podcast that a move above $115K could open a range of $150K–$195K, and that he did not expect the cycle peak later than Q1 2026, according to NewsBTC. Those views fall outside our price window and are not graded here.
Sources: x.com/jjcmoreno (own posts) · coindesk.com · newsbtc.com · cryptoquant.com
Demand first, price second. Julio reads Bitcoin through how fast spot and futures demand is growing or shrinking, how much profit holders are taking, and CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index. He names on-chain cost levels as support or resistance. He is quick to warn when a rally runs on profit-taking, and slow to call a bottom.
Bearish from March to July: a relief rally in a bear market, then profit-taking warnings in April and May, then, in June and July, warnings not to rush the cycle bottom. Turned bullish in mid-August when spot demand began to grow, and said on 25 August that the regime had switched to bull. Cautious again from 25 September, warning of a possible correction.
Seven dated calls from Julio Moreno, all from his own X posts, each checked verbatim against the post and charted against real price. The tally is 4 played out, 1 open, 2 went against.
“These are typical signals of a rally losing momentum and risks of a correction.”
Posted at $84,378, after holders' unrealised profit hit its highest since December 2024 and daily profit-taking hit its largest of 2026. Bitcoin dipped to $83,479 (−1.1%) on 29 September and rose to $86,490 (+2.5%) on 5 October. It is at $85,466 (+1.3%). No correction yet. Open.
𝕏 Post“These are typical signals of a rally losing momentum and risks of a correction.” — @jjcmoreno on X↗ x.com“Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin. Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market.”
Posted at $78,974. He added two caveats: price still had to close above its 365-day average, which was $83K that day, to confirm the bull market, and a correction was possible. Both happened. Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−4.3%) on 16 September, then rose to $86,597 (+9.7%) on 22 September. It is at $85,466 (+8.2%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin.” — @jjcmoreno on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin apparent spot demand entered into expansion territory a few days ago for just the second time in 2026. Historically, the median return is 23% in the next 60 days after this happens during a bear market.”
Charted at $64,686. The post went out at 15:42 UTC, and the next day's mark was already $69,291 (+7.1%). A 23% gain from the 19 August mark came within nine days: Bitcoin closed at $80,268 (+24.1%) on 28 August. It went on to $86,597 (+33.9%) on 22 September and is at $85,466 (+32.1%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“Historically, the median return is 23% in the next 60 days after this happens during a bear market.” — @jjcmoreno on X↗ x.com“Fresh Bitcoin bear market low. The bottom is in when everyone stops calling the bottom is in.”
Posted at 03:12 UTC on the day of the low, $58,566. He did not give a target, but the post said the bottom was not in yet. It was. Bitcoin never closed lower. It rose to $86,597 (+47.9%) on 22 September and is at $85,466 (+45.9%). Went against.
𝕏 Post“The bottom is in when everyone stops calling the bottom is in.” — @jjcmoreno on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin is up 36% from the 2026 low, watch out for the profit taking.”
Posted at $79,826, after holders took the biggest daily profit since December. Bitcoin rose a little further, to $82,018 (+2.7%) on 11 May, its high for the spring. It then fell to $58,566 (−26.6%) on 1 July. It is at $85,466 (+7.1%), but the fall came first. Played out.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is up 36% from the 2026 low, watch out for the profit taking.” — @jjcmoreno on X↗ x.com“The price of Bitcoin is approaching a major bear market resistance: the Traders' On-chain Realized Price, currently at $76.8K.”
Posted at $74,482. The level did not hold. Bitcoin closed above it at $77,126 (+3.5%) four days later, on 18 April, and rose to $82,018 (+10.1%) on 11 May. It only turned lower for good in late May, on the way to $58,566 (−21.4%) on 1 July. It is at $85,466 (+14.7%). As a resistance call, it went against.
𝕏 Post“approaching a major bear market resistance: the Traders' On-chain Realized Price, currently at $76.8K” — @jjcmoreno on X↗ x.com“We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.”
Posted at $69,849, when CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index rose to 30. The relief rally ran to $82,018 (+17.4%) on 11 May. Then the bear market made a new low at $58,566 (−16.2%) on 1 July. It is at $85,466 (+22.4%), after he called a new bull regime in August. Both halves of the call played out.
𝕏 Post“We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.” — @jjcmoreno on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the post linked on its card. Each call is charted at that day's midnight CoinGecko mark. The 1 July post went out at 03:12 UTC, three hours after that day's mark, which was the low. The same view, not yet a bottom, appears in two posts we did not chart: “Don't rush the cycle bottom” on 7 June at $60,855, and on 30 July “there's still a lot of room to go” at $63,917. After 7 June, Bitcoin closed at most 3.8% lower; after 30 July, at most 1.8% lower. Both times it then rose more than 35%. Many of his posts describe data with no view, and we left those out. The “$1,000 in” line on each card assumes buying Bitcoin on the day. On the bearish cards it shows what a buyer would have lost or made, not what he said to do.
Julio's X posts are free to read. Here is how his work is paid for.
He is head of research at CryptoQuant, which sells on-chain data. Its pricing page lists a free tier, Advanced at $39 a month, Professional at $109 a month and Premium at $799 a month on an annual plan. Most of his posts promote the firm's reports, dashboards and podcasts.
He appears on podcasts and TV, such as Milk Road and FintechTV, and is quoted often by CoinDesk, The Block and others. We found no sign that he is paid for these.
He has not stated publicly whether he holds Bitcoin, and we found no disclosure.
“We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.”
11 Mar 2026 · played out“Bitcoin is up 36% from the 2026 low, watch out for the profit taking.”
5 May 2026 · played out“The bottom is in when everyone stops calling the bottom is in.”
1 Jul 2026 · went againstQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
Julio posts CryptoQuant charts on X most weekdays, with links to the firm's weekly research reports and live dashboards.
The head of research at CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics company. He posts on X as @jjcmoreno, with about 23,000 followers, and describes himself as an economist. His X location is San Salvador, El Salvador.
On our sample of seven dated calls from 11 March to 25 September 2026: four played out, one is open, two went against. His warnings in spring and his bull call in August were right. He did not see the 1 July low as the bottom.
His X posts are free. He works for CryptoQuant, which sells data plans from $39 a month (Advanced) to $799 a month (Premium), with a free tier.
A CryptoQuant score from 0 to 100 built from ten indicators, nine on-chain and one technical. Julio uses it to label the market on a scale from extra bearish to extra bullish.
Not publicly known, and no credible figure exists. Ignore any specific number you see attached to the name.
Julio reads Bitcoin through demand and profit-taking. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: his public X posts and profile and the sources linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Julio? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 6 October 2026
