@IIICapital
A corporate Bitcoin treasury strategist — first at Semler Scientific, now at Strive — who posts on-chain and macro reads on X. The calls are mostly directional: bottoms, regimes, and how bullish to be. Those are what this page checks.
In short. Joe Burnett is Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive, a Nasdaq-listed company that holds Bitcoin as its main treasury asset. Earlier roles were director of Bitcoin strategy at Semler Scientific, director of market research at Unchained and head analyst at Blockware Solutions. On X (about 107K followers) the calls are directional, not level targets. On this page: six dated Bitcoin calls from May to September 2026. The June and August bottom calls have held so far; a May post — “I don’t think I’ve ever been more bullish” — was followed by a 25.1% fall before the recovery.
Semler Scientific appointed Burnett director of Bitcoin strategy in June 2025. The release says Burnett was previously director of market research at Unchained, a Bitcoin financial services company, and before that “head analyst and product manager at Blockware Solutions”, a Bitcoin mining company. Strive completed its acquisition of Semler in January 2026; Cointelegraph now describes Burnett as “Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin strategy.”
The long-range view is very bullish. In a report covered by Cointelegraph on 3 Mar 2026, Burnett wrote: “My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.” That forecast is ten years out and cannot be charted here. The X feed mixes short market reads with promotion of Strive's Bitcoin-per-share growth and its “digital credit” product, SATA.
The calls on this page are directional — “the bottom is already in”, “a new bull market regime has begun” — so they are graded on direction, not on a price target. Burnett's public profiles do not state pronouns, so this page uses they/them.
Sources: x.com/IIICapital · PR Newswire (Semler Scientific, 19 Jun 2025) · Cointelegraph (3 Mar 2026)
On-chain and macro, then a direction. Burnett reads miner capitulation, cycle comparisons with 2018 and 2022, the Power Law model and bond yields, then says where Bitcoin is in the cycle. Levels are rare; the calls are about bottoms and regimes. The bias is openly long: Burnett's job is to grow a Bitcoin treasury.
Strongly bullish. Since mid-August the posts say the bottom is probably in and a new bull market regime has begun. The one caution, in late September, was that higher bond yields pressure Bitcoin in the near term.
Six dated calls from Burnett's own posts on X, charted against real CoinGecko price. Each quote is copied from the post as published and was re-fetched live. Most of the feed is treasury-company commentary; we charted the posts that make a clear call on Bitcoin's direction.
“Higher yields pressure Bitcoin in the near term”
The one cautious call, made as US 10-year yields went back above 5%. BTC was $86,183, a day after its high. It has drifted to $83,145 (−3.5%) — the right direction, but too small a move to call settled. Open.
𝕏 Post“This train has no brakes.” — @IIICapital on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin’s decisive breakout while stocks have moved sideways or lower is another sign that the bear market regime has ended, a new bull market regime has begun, and Bitcoin remains massively mispriced.”
BTC was $78,511 after a fast rally from the mid-August lows. The lowest close since is $75,590 (−3.7%, 16 Sep). BTC peaked at $86,597 (+10.3%) on 22 Sep and is $83,145 now (+5.9%). No lower low so far. Played out so far.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin will bore you to death before making a big move.” — @IIICapital on X↗ x.com“There’s a decent probability the bottom is already in.”
BTC was $63,409. It dipped only to $62,844 (−0.9%) on 17 Aug, then rallied to $86,597 (+36.6%) on 22 Sep. It is $83,145 now (+31.1%). The 1 Jul low of $58,566 has held. Played out.
𝕏 Post“What’s crazy is how eerily similar this feels to the 2018 and 2022 Bitcoin bear market bottoms” — @IIICapital on X↗ x.com“The Bitcoin Power Law model suggests BTC should be ~$175,000 today. I suspect we are approaching a major rotation of capital into Bitcoin.”
BTC was $63,916. It rose to $86,597 (+35.5%) by 22 Sep and is $83,145 now (+30.1%), so the direction was right. But the only number in the post, the Power Law value of $175,000, is still more than double the current price, and “approaching a major rotation” has no end date. Open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin Power Law model suggests BTC should be ~$175,000 today.” — @IIICapital on X↗ x.com“The ongoing miner capitulation suggests Bitcoin is in the process of forming a durable bottom.”
BTC was $66,293. It fell another 11.7% to $58,566 on 1 Jul — the low of the whole period — then recovered. It peaked at $86,597 (+30.6%) on 22 Sep and is $83,145 now (+25.4%). “In the process of forming” allowed for the last leg down. Played out.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin and energy are inextricably linked.” — @IIICapital on X↗ x.com“I don’t think I’ve ever been more bullish on Bitcoin over the next 12 months.”
BTC was $78,208. Two months later it was $58,566 (−25.1%, 1 Jul). It took until 22 Aug to close above the call price again, and it is $83,145 now (+6.3%). The 12-month window runs to May 2027, so this stays open — but anyone who bought on the post sat through a 25% drawdown first.
𝕏 Post“More bullish on Bitcoin over the next 12 months.” — @IIICapital on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of what each post said, measured against real CoinGecko price — not Burnett's own scoring. The “$1,000 in” line under each chart is a buy-and-hold figure from the day of the call, even for the one cautious call. Directional calls with a long or unstated horizon stay open until price has clearly settled them.
Burnett's income is a corporate job, not the X feed: there is no paid newsletter or course. The conflict is direct: the employer holds Bitcoin as its main treasury asset and sells Bitcoin-linked securities.
Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive, which holds Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset. A higher Bitcoin price helps Strive's balance sheet, and Burnett regularly posts Strive's “BTC Yield” (Bitcoin per share growth) — on 29 Sep 2026: “No one is growing Bitcoin per share faster.”
Strive issues SATA, a Nasdaq-listed security it markets as “digital credit.” Burnett's posts compare its yield with CDs and bonds: “Have you heard of Digital Credit, sir?”
Director of Bitcoin strategy at Semler Scientific (from June 2025), director of market research at Unchained, head analyst at Blockware Solutions (PR Newswire, 19 Jun 2025).
“There’s a decent probability the bottom is already in.”
13 Aug 2026 · posted at $63,409; BTC is up 31.1% since“I don’t think I’ve ever been more bullish on Bitcoin over the next 12 months.”
02 May 2026 · followed by a 25.1% fall before the recovery“My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.”
Mar 2026 · the ten-year forecast, via CointelegraphQuotes transcribed from their own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
There is no video library to link here. Burnett's public calls are posts on X, and every charted call links to the post itself.
Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), a Bitcoin treasury company. Earlier director of Bitcoin strategy at Semler Scientific, director of market research at Unchained and head analyst at Blockware Solutions.
In August 2026 Burnett posted that the bottom was probably in and that “a new bull market regime has begun.” The long-range base case, reported by Cointelegraph in March 2026, is $11 million per Bitcoin in Q1 2036.
Of six dated Bitcoin calls from May to September 2026: three played out (the June and August bottom calls and the late-August regime call), three are still open, and none has clearly gone against. But the May “ever been more bullish” post was followed by a 25.1% fall first, and the calls are directional, not level targets. Treat it as a documented opinion, not advice.
Through a job at Strive, a company that holds Bitcoin as its main treasury asset. A higher Bitcoin price helps the employer.
Burnett reads miner data, past cycles and bond yields, then calls the regime. How close is your instinct — measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials (Burnett's own dated X posts, the Semler Scientific appointment release and Cointelegraph coverage, linked on the page). Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Burnett? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 29 September 2026
