@GertvanLagen
A Dutch engineer-turned-chartist who runs one very large idea: Bitcoin is inside the final wave of a supercycle that began in 2009, and it ends somewhere near $400,000–$450,000. Everything he publishes is that thesis, restated weekly, with the level he is watching written down — which is exactly why it can be graded.
In short. Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen, roughly 125,000 followers, on X since December 2009) is one of crypto's most persistent Elliott Wave analysts. His X bio gives the whole framing: “MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Macro Strategist | NFA | Strate𝔾”. Since April 2026 he has published a weekly letter, the Strate𝔾 Update, that walks the same route every time — macro pulse, then Bitcoin, then altcoins, stocks, forex — and lands on a wave count pointing at a blow-off top around $400k–$450k. The record below is the honest shape of that: his most bullish week, 5 May, landed six days before Bitcoin's highest close of the window and was followed by a 26.6% collapse; from 17 June through 15 August he repeatedly refused to call it a bear market, and on the day he said the cycle-bottom trendline was being tested Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further before rallying 29.0%. The supercycle target itself is still roughly 5x away.
Van Lagen is Dutch and describes himself, in the only biography he has actually signed, as an MSc in Systems and Control working as a macro strategist — the bio on the X account he has held since 4 December 2009. He has no fund, no firm and no audited track record on offer; what he has is a decade of public Elliott Wave charts and, since 22 April 2026, a weekly letter under the name Strate𝔾 that fixes those charts to dates.
His method is unusually legible for crypto X. Each Strate𝔾 Update opens with the same disclaimer — “The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don't take it as financial advice.” — then works top-down: Fed policy, oil and inflation, the Russell 2000 as his risk-on gauge, and only then Bitcoin, where he maps the wave count onto two long trendlines connecting the 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low and the 2022 bear-market low at the bottom, and a secular line near $450K at the top. Levels recur for months at a time — $66k, then $82.8k — because the structure he is describing moves slowly.
The honesty problem with a multi-year wave count is that it is almost never wrong on a schedule, so it is worth putting his most-quoted miss on the record. On 9 March 2024 he posted: “By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days. A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.” U.Today wrote it up the next day as “Bitcoin (BTC) at $200,000 Is More Feasible Than You Think.” Bitcoin has never traded at $200,000 — by his own letters the cycle topped at $126k. The same target discipline that makes his weekly levels checkable also produces headline numbers that have not arrived.
Sources: x.com/GertvanLagen (posts captured verbatim via the X syndication endpoint) · gertvanlagen.substack.com (publicly-served text of dated Strate𝔾 Update editions) · U.Today coverage used only to date and locate the 2024 post
Elliott Wave structure on top of a macro pulse. Van Lagen counts waves — impulses, expanded flats, expanding diagonals — and hangs them on long-dated trendlines rather than on indicators. Bitcoin's floor, in his framing, is the blue line through the 2018 low, the 2020 Covid low and the 2022 bear-market low, reinforced by a 210,000-block halving EMA/SMA; the ceiling is the secular line he currently prices near $450K. Around that sits a repeatable macro checklist — Fed path, oil as the economy's input cost, ISM and payrolls, and the Russell 2000 as the risk-on tell that he says leads Bitcoin in the rotation. The strength is that he names the level that decides it ($74k, $66k, $82.8k) and repeats it until it breaks. The weakness is the timeframe mismatch: a count that resolves at $400k gives no guidance on a 26% drawdown along the way, and he stayed structurally bullish straight through the one this record contains.
Structurally, persistently bullish. In the whole window he never once flipped to a bear-market call — at worst he called the sell-off a shake-out inside a consolidation — so read his weekly levels as timing inside a standing long thesis, not as a two-sided view.
Eight dated calls inside the CoinGecko price window, all of them his own: two posts from @GertvanLagen captured verbatim from X, six from dated editions of his Strate𝔾 Update. An honest caveat on selection — the weekly letter is a paid newsletter, and what is charted here is the portion Substack serves publicly (the subtitle and the opening of each section, which is where he states the week's thesis and the level he is watching). The paywalled remainder is not quoted, and it may contain qualifications this page cannot see. The shape that emerges: he was wrong at the top — his most bullish letter, 5 May, came six days before Bitcoin's highest close of the window — and right through the bottom, refusing a bear-market call from 17 June onward and naming the cycle-bottom trendline on 15 August, within 0.2% of the low that followed. The through-line, a wave-5 blow-off at $400k–$450k, is roughly 5x away and is logged open, not correct.
“Ethereum set to print higher high on weekly chart.”
The headline thesis of that week's letter, stated in its subtitle with ETH at $2,515. It printed: Ethereum ran to $2,632 (+4.7%) on 20 September — the highest price in the whole window — after a −4.7% dip to $2,397 on the 16th, and sits at $2,575 (+2.4%). A small, precise, eight-day call that did what he said.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 37 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 12 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“the $82,8k level really needs to be cleared first, for BTC to print a Higher High - Breaking the cascade of lower lows and lower highs since the $126k top”
With BTC at $79,671 he refused to call the rally a trend change until $82,800 broke. It never did: the best Bitcoin has managed since is $81,236 (+2.0%) on 20 September, with a −5.1% dip to $75,590 in between, and it sits at $80,368 (+0.9%). His structural read — “The $82.8k lower high was not yet defeated” — still holds, which is why this is logged open rather than right or wrong.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 36 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 5 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
His best call of the window. With BTC at $62,984 he said it was “currently testing the lower blue trendline connecting the major 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low, and the 2022 bear-market low” and read it as cycle-bottom confluence. Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further — to $62,844 on 17 August — then ran to $81,265 (+29.0%) by 4 September and trades at $80,368 (+27.6%). The $450K end of that same count remains untouched.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 33 | Q3 | 2026, “Risk-on strengthens as Bitcoin hits historical bottom trend”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.”
Called the summer chop a mid-cycle correction due to reverse, with BTC at $63,917. It reversed almost immediately: the deepest dip after was $62,773 (−1.8%) on 2 August, then $81,265 (+27.1%) on 4 September, now $80,368 (+25.7%). The blow-off he framed it against is a $400k target — that part has not happened.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 31 | Q3 | 2026, “Summer Sideways - Extremely boring”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
The first edition in this window to state it in capitals, with BTC at $65,619 stalling under the $66k resistance he had named. He was right about the regime and early on the price: Bitcoin fell another 10.7% to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — before running to $81,265 (+23.8%) and settling at $80,368 (+22.5%). He repeated this line almost verbatim for five straight weeks; this is where it starts.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 25 | Q2 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 17 Jun 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“$ETH is printing a highly complex Expanding Diagonal, consisting of 5 corrective waves in a triangular structure. Wave c of 5 of ⑤ is the final blow-off style impulse, targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k”
Direction right, magnitude nowhere near. From $1,812 Ethereum first fell 13.6% to $1,566 on 26 June, then rallied to $2,632 (+45.3%) and sits at $2,575 (+42.1%) — a good six-week call by any normal standard. But the box he named starts at $10,000, which is another +288% from here, and ends at $22,000, +754% away. Logged open: the thesis has not been invalidated and has not paid.
𝕏 Post“Wave c of 5 of ⑤ … targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+. In this section, I will show that both the low- and high-timeframe structures point to this target.”
His most bullish letter of the window, and the worst-timed. BTC was $79,826 and he had just noted it “has now cleared the long-standing $74k resistance!”. It managed $82,018 (+2.7%) six days later — the highest close in the window — then fell 26.6% to $58,566 by 1 July. Bitcoin is back to $80,368 (+0.7%) today, so the position is roughly flat five months on, but the call itself pointed up and the next move was a quarter off.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 19 | Q2 | 2026, “Bulls need to push through this time!”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.”
The thesis in one post, with BTC at $68,287. The near-term half worked: Bitcoin ran to $82,018 (+20.1%) by 11 May before giving it all back to $58,566 (−14.2%) on 1 July, and is $80,368 (+17.7%) now. The stated destination is not: $400k is +397% from today's price. Up 17.7% is not a wrong call — but it is not the call he made, so it stays open.
𝕏 Post“my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel … at ~$400k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Mar 2026↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real CoinGecko daily closes, not his own scoring. Prices in the text come from the same series the charts are drawn from. Long-horizon targets whose level has not been approached are logged open rather than counted as hits, and near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves. Where a line recurs across several weekly letters, the card uses the edition in which it first appears in this window.
The business is a single paid newsletter, priced openly, plus the conference economy that comes with a six-figure following. There is no signals group, no token, no exchange affiliate we could find — but the letter's price is the incentive worth knowing, because the free half of it is the part that has to sound urgent.
The Strate𝔾 Update is a paid weekly. The plan objects served on his public subscribe page read “$26.50 a month” and “$265 a year” (USD, created July 2025). Of the 23 posts in his archive on 20 September 2026, 21 are paid-only — including every market letter. What is public is the subtitle and the opening of each section, which is what this page charts.
On 26 May 2026 he published two free posts: one for Dutch Blockchain Week subtitled “Want a ticket? Use my discount code: GertvanLagen15”, and one for Proof of Talk at the Louvre — “I have 10 nomination spots, and I am giving you the opportunity to be part of it!” Neither post discloses whether the code or the nominations carry a fee or commission.
He has published the same $400k–$450k wave count for years, and the letter's audience is bought on that count being alive. That is not a hidden conflict — it is stated in every edition — but it explains the posture: across seven months of this record he never once called a bear market, including the week before a 26% drawdown.
“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
15 Aug 2026 · two days before the low, and right“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+.”
05 May 2026 · six days before the top of the window“I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
17 Jun 2026 · the line he repeated for five straight weeks“A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.”
09 Mar 2024 · the miss that is still quoted back at himQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
There is no video library to link — van Lagen has no channel of his own. His public output is charts on X and the weekly Strate𝔾 Update on Substack, which is why every call above is a timestamped post or a dated letter rather than a clip. The editions behind six of the eight cards are public at the links on those cards; the full corpus, with the live verification log, is cited in the sources line.
A Dutch macro strategist and Elliott Wave analyst who posts Bitcoin chart analysis to roughly 125,000 followers on X as @GertvanLagen, and has published a weekly paid newsletter, the Strate𝔾 Update, since April 2026. His own bio describes him as holding an MSc in Systems and Control; he discloses no fund, firm or audited track record.
His standing Elliott Wave count puts the final wave-5 blow-off top of a supercycle that began in 2009 at the upper trendline of his channel — which he has priced at roughly $400,000 and, in the August 2026 letters, “currently around $450K”. That target has not been approached: it is about 5x today's price, and this dossier logs it open, not correct.
Not publicly known and not verifiable. He discloses no fund, no firm and no position sizes; his only visible business is a paid Substack at $26.50 a month. Ignore any specific figure attached to his name — none is confirmed.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the record cuts both ways: of eight dated calls we charted, four played out, three are open and one went clearly against him — he was at his most bullish six days before Bitcoin's highest close of the window, and he called the cycle-bottom trendline two days before a local low that undercut him by only 0.2%, ahead of a 29% rally. His best-known long-term call, $200k before the April 2024 halving, never happened. Treat his letters as a dated, checkable opinion — never trade them blindly.
Van Lagen zooms out until the noise disappears: one wave count, one trendline, one destination years away. How close is your instinct — measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials — his own dated X posts and the publicly-served text of dated editions of his newsletter, linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Gert? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 20 September 2026
