@davthewave
The analyst behind the Logarithmic Growth Curve — a single trendline drawn in 2018 that says Bitcoin's returns decay as it matures. They don't do cycle-top fireworks; they do one curve, one cycle-length assumption, and a fortnightly letter that dates every update. Which means the record checks cleanly — including where it's wrong.
In short. dave the wave is a pseudonymous technical analyst who has posted charts to X since January 2018 and publishes a fortnightly newsletter on Substack. Their whole framework is one idea: Bitcoin grows along a logarithmic growth curve whose slope decays over time, with a shaded “buy zone” underneath it, drawn in 2018 and left alone since. The crypto press introduces them as “the analyst who called the May 2021 collapse.” The seven dated calls charted below are their own words from their own letter, and they split hard by timeframe: the curve worked and the calendar didn't. Their two mid-2026 bottom calls were early and wrong — a $95,000 target in May as Bitcoin was about to fall 25%, and a “bottoming base” thesis that preceded a 24% leg down. Then on 3 July, two days after the cycle low printed, they said price was sitting on the curve — and Bitcoin has not traded below that letter since, running +28.5%.
dave the wave is a pseudonym and nothing more is verifiable: no real name, no face, no location, no employer has been published. Because they have never stated pronouns, this page uses they/them — the press convention of “he” is an assumption, not a documented fact. What is verifiable is the account. @davthewave is blue-verified on X with user id 952150697021079552; decoding that id gives an account creation date of 13 January 2018, which lines up independently with their own statement that the curve was drawn “back in 2018.” Reach is roughly 200,000 followers.
Their reputation rests on the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC): the argument that Bitcoin's percentage returns shrink as the asset matures, so price tracks a decaying log curve rather than repeating equal-magnitude parabolas. Under the curve sits a shaded “buy zone.” They date its tests publicly — March 2020, November 2022, and now 2026 — and the model's value is precisely that it can be falsified, which is rarer in this space than it should be.
Two caveats belong on the record. First, the crypto press has introduced them as “the analyst who called the May 2021 collapse” since 2022, but that call sits years outside the price window charted here and is not scored on this page — the seven calls below are 2026 only. Second, the letter is a paid fortnightly Substack. Every post ships with a free public preamble, and that preamble is the only thing quoted here; nothing behind the paywall was accessed. So the calls below are real, dated and in the analyst's own words, but they are the opening paragraphs of a subscription product, not its full argument.
Sources: davethewave.substack.com (fortnightly newsletter, free public preambles) · x.com/davthewave
One model, long horizon, low frequency. The Logarithmic Growth Curve is the spine: a decaying log trendline with a shaded buy zone, drawn once in 2018 and never redrawn. Around it they layer a small, conventional toolkit — MACD across daily / weekly / monthly timeframes, diagonal resistance, fib extensions, and a hard assumption that macro corrections run twelve months. That last piece is where the framework strains: the curve is a price model, the twelve-month rule is a calendar model, and in 2026 the calendar ran ahead of the price. They publish fortnightly, so there is no intraday noise and no signal-chasing — but also no ability to react between letters.
Structurally bullish on Bitcoin over the cycle — the curve points up and they buy its underside — but explicitly patient, and through mid-2026 they were repeatedly early in calling the turn.
Seven dated calls from their own fortnightly letter, April to August 2026, each charted against real price. This is a model-and-calendar analyst, so the calls are directional and structural (“macro buy,” “the bottoming base is in,” “price is on the curve”) rather than tight entries — we judged them on what Bitcoin actually did next. The pattern is unusually legible: the price model held and the calendar failed. Their two explicit bottom/target calls in May are the worst on the page and sit first; the July curve test is the best. For honesty, note that the 2021 top call the press credits them with is outside this window and is not scored here.
“Technically, the road looks open for a move to that shorter-term target of 95K”
The clearest miss on the page, and the only hard number they named. At $78,512 they called the road open to $95,000. Bitcoin got to $82,018 (+4.5%) a week later and stopped — then went the other way entirely, −25.4% to $58,566 by 1 July. The target was never approached. BTC is $79,017 (+0.6%) from that letter, four months on.
SourceBTC Update / And Commentary on a Currency — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“Currently we are in the seventh month of twelve with price looking relatively strong.”
Titled “The Arguments for the Bottoming Base In,” written at $77,429 off the twelve-month-correction rule. The base was not in. Bitcoin fell −24.4% to $58,566 over the next six weeks — the deepest leg of the whole correction came after they argued it had finished. Now $79,017 (+2.1%). This is the calendar model failing, not the curve: the same letter's log-curve logic was fine a few weeks later.
SourceThe Arguments for the Bottoming Base In — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“Price is still just in the LGC ‘buy zone’ signaling a macro buy for late investors looking for exposure.”
A macro buy signal at $74,826, aimed explicitly at late investors. Judged as a long-horizon accumulation call it is green — BTC is $79,017 (+5.6%). Judged as anything shorter it was punishing: price first ran to $82,018 (+9.6%), then gave up −21.7% to $58,566. Anyone who took “macro buy” as “buy now” sat through a fifth of their capital. Logged open: the thesis is a cycle call and the cycle isn't done.
SourceWeekly MACD Cross and Bullish Ascending Triangle — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“short term price continues to strengthen on the bounce after the recent sell-off”
Subtitled “Signaling the Low is In,” at $66,293, with price described as sitting mid-LGC buy zone. The specific claim broke fast — Bitcoin made a lower low two weeks later, −11.7% to $58,566 on 1 July. The direction, though, paid: BTC ran to $81,265 (+22.6%) and sits at $79,017 (+19.2%). Third strike in a row on timing the exact turn, and the last one — the next letter is the one that lands.
SourceBTC and MACD Updates / Signaling the Low is In — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“the one constant [admittedly from a small sample size] is the one year correction. And the culmination of that time period is currently only 3 months away [October].”
Their standing cycle-timing thesis, stated at $63,792 with a named date — October 2026 — and an unusually honest hedge about the sample size. That horizon has not arrived, so it is open by construction and cannot be scored yet. What has happened since is favourable: a maximum dip of only −1.6% to $62,773, a high of $81,265 (+27.4%), and BTC now at $79,017 (+23.9%).
SourceThe Constant of Time / And the LGC — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“The price of Bitcoin is now on, or very near, the Logarithmic Growth Curve [LGC].”
Their best call, and the vindication of the model after three early ones. Published at $61,490, two days after Bitcoin printed its $58,566 cycle low, noting the curve had been tested twice before — March 2020 and November 2022. Bitcoin has never traded below this letter since: the low after it is the day itself, +0.0%. It ran to $81,265 (+32.2%) on 4 September and sits at $79,017 (+28.5%). An eight-year-old trendline, tested a third time, held.
SourceCrunch Time for the Logarithmic Growth Curve — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“the current chart has to be of interest for those bullish on Bitcoin as a long term asset [or currency]”
A monthly-chart basing read at $64,686, framed for long-term Bitcoin bulls and LGC followers. It worked immediately and cleanly: the low after this letter is the day itself (+0.0% — no drawdown at all), price ran to $81,265 (+25.6%) by 4 September, and BTC is $79,017 (+22.2%). Note the letter is recent, so this is an early mark on a thesis framed in months.
SourceBTC Basing Range on the Monthly Chart — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.comOutcomes are our read of their stated position against real price, not their own scoring. Every quote is the free public preamble of a dated Substack post, matched verbatim against the live page (linked on each card) — not paraphrased, and not taken from behind the paywall. Their October 2026 cycle-timing call has not resolved yet and is logged open.
The business here is small and legible: one paid Substack. There is no signals group, no token in the record we reviewed, no exchange referral funnel and no course. That is about as clean an incentive structure as this hub tracks — but the paywall is still the product, and it shapes what you see for free.
Dave's Newsletter — a fortnightly TA letter. The about page states paid subscription “grants full access,” while free subscribers get “a preamble of the newsletter.” Subscriptions appear to be the sole disclosed revenue line.
Every call on this page is drawn from that free preamble. It is genuinely the analyst's own dated words — but it is also the hook for a paid product, so expect the strongest framing up front and the caveats inside.
We found no paid group, no promoted token, no affiliate/exchange links and no course in the public record. Worth stating plainly, because it is unusual.
“The price of Bitcoin is now on, or very near, the Logarithmic Growth Curve [LGC].”
03 Jul 2026 · the curve's third test, two days after the low“Technically, the road looks open for a move to that shorter-term target of 95K”
04 May 2026 · the target that missed — BTC fell 25% instead“the one constant [admittedly from a small sample size] is the one year correction.”
17 Jul 2026 · the calendar rule, hedged in their own wordsQuotes transcribed from his own public videos; stated views, not recommendations.
There is no video library to link. dave the wave publishes in two places only — charts on X and a fortnightly written newsletter on Substack — with no podcast, no YouTube channel and no interviews we could verify. That output format is why every call above is a timestamped, quotable paragraph rather than a clip, and why the full verified corpus behind them is cited on each card.
A pseudonymous crypto technical analyst who has posted charts as @davthewave since January 2018 and writes a fortnightly newsletter on Substack. Their real name, face and location are undisclosed. They are best known for the Logarithmic Growth Curve, a Bitcoin trendline they drew in 2018, and the crypto press introduces them as the analyst who called the May 2021 collapse.
Their core model: the argument that Bitcoin's percentage returns decay as the asset matures, so price follows a flattening logarithmic curve rather than repeating equal-sized parabolas. A shaded “buy zone” sits beneath the curve. They say it was drawn in 2018 and has been tested three times — March 2020, November 2022 and July 2026.
Not publicly verified. They are pseudonymous, and the only disclosed business is a paid Substack subscription. Ignore any specific figure — none is confirmed.
They are a commentator, not a licensed adviser. The 2026 record charted here is genuinely mixed: the curve-based calls worked, including a July bottom read Bitcoin never traded below, while two attempts to time the turn on a twelve-month-correction rule were wrong by 24% and 25%. Treat it as a documented, dated opinion — never trade it blindly.
Two places: charts on X (@davthewave) and “Dave's Newsletter” on Substack, a fortnightly letter. The newsletter is paid, but each post carries a free public preamble — which is the source of every quote on this page.
dave the wave bets on one curve and a lot of patience: returns decay, corrections take a year, and you buy the underside. How close is your instinct — measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials — dated posts from the analyst's own Substack, quoted from the free public preamble that accompanies each issue and linked on every call. No paywalled content was accessed. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Dave? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 07 September 2026
