@CryptoCon_
CryptoCon is a pseudonymous Bitcoin cycle analyst who posts to about 126,000 followers on X as @CryptoCon_ and runs the paid Bitcoin Data Newsletter. All spring and summer they held that the 2026 bear market had a long way to fall, with targets in the $40Ks and as low as $28.5K. One call worked: the bear flag broke down in June and Bitcoin fell to $58,566. The deeper targets never came. Bitcoin rallied from August, and on 21 September CryptoCon wrote “So, I was wrong that the bear market would continue, and I did not buy the lows at 60k.”
In short. CryptoCon posts as @CryptoCon_. On our sample of seven calls from 18 March to 2 October the record is 1 played out, 1 open, 5 went against. The bear flag breakdown they flagged in May came in June. Every deeper target, from $50,000 down to $28,500, was missed: Bitcoin's lowest close was $58,566 on 1 July. They admitted the miss on 21 September, and their newest call, for a return to $57K–80K, is still open.
The @CryptoCon_ account was opened in September 2018. The bio reads “Long Term Bitcoin Technical Analyst || Creator of the Halving Cycles Theory”. We found no interview or public record that names the person behind it, so this page uses they/them.
Their method is the Halving Cycles Theory, their own model that dates Bitcoin's cycle highs and lows from the first halving, with a cycle bottom window of November 2026 to January 2027. They back it with on-chain data (MVRV, SOPR, NUPL, long-term holders) and price bands of their own, such as the Bear Bands, Magic Bands and Simple Bands. They post about once every two days, almost only on Bitcoin.
We read all 113 of their own posts from 16 March to 9 October 2026. On 10 August they wrote “I have not bought or sold any crypto since my sale in August 2025 at 112.5k Bitcoin.” That sale came before Bitcoin's October 2025 top and is outside our price window, so it is not graded here. After the 21 September concession they still expect a significant low between November 2026 and January 2027.
Sources: x.com/CryptoCon_ (own posts) · bitcoindatanewsletter.com · t.me/cryptoconupdates
Cycle timing first, price second. CryptoCon reads the calendar of past bear markets and fits price models to it, then defends the timing against the crowd. On 18 September they answered “CryptoCon, when will you give it up and admit the bull market is here?” with “Never!”. Three days later they gave it up in public: “There must be a limit to every idea, and now mine has been reached.”
Cautious. On 2 October they wrote that Bitcoin “will probably have trouble breaking through the 84k–98k barrier”. On 9 October they still listed “Bitcoin: bear market ends in Nov - Jan (timewise)”. They say they hold no crypto.
Seven dated calls from CryptoCon, all from their own X posts, each checked word for word against the post and charted against real price. The tally is 1 played out, 1 open, 5 went against.
“My price opinion is that Bitcoin will probably have trouble breaking through the 84k–98k barrier. Price is most likely to at least return to the 57k–80k range, and in a more aggressive and traditional cycle scenario, break below it and find support at 47k.”
Posted at $84,842. Bitcoin's best close since is $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October, inside the barrier they named. It fell to $81,686 (−3.7%) on 9 October, still above $80,000, and is at $82,851 (−2.3%). Neither a break above $98,000 nor a return below $80,000 has come yet. Open.
𝕏 Post“Price is most likely to at least return to the 57k–80k range” — @CryptoCon_ on X↗ x.com“No bull market here until it's broken to the upside, and it's been extremely good at catching the start of the bull market early. I have not, and still will not change my mind that the bear market is not complete according to regular cycle timing (November - January)”
Posted at $81,265. Bitcoin fell to $75,590 (−7.0%) on 16 September. It then closed at $86,597 (+6.6%) on 22 September and is at $82,851 (+2.0%). On 21 September CryptoCon wrote “So, I was wrong that the bear market would continue, and I did not buy the lows at 60k.” Went against.
𝕏 Post“No bull market here until it's broken to the upside” — @CryptoCon_ on X↗ x.com“August and September are right around the corner, two notorious months for being poor performers, and the bear market is no exception. At least a 30% correction is standard, which would take Bitcoin to the low-to-mid 40ks.”
Posted at $63,882. Bitcoin's lowest close after the post was $62,773 (−1.7%) on 2 August. It broke out of its range on 20 August and closed at $86,597 (+35.6%) on 22 September. It is at $82,851 (+29.7%). August and September went up, not down. Went against.
𝕏 Post“At least a 30% correction is standard” — @CryptoCon_ on X↗ x.com“No closes yet, but it seems very likely that Bitcoin locks in a break below the First Low Bear Band, triggering a move to the Second Low Band at 44.5k. The cycle bottom target here is on the lower end of my projections at 28.5k.”
Posted at $63,811. Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−8.2%) on 1 July and never got near $44,500. It rose to $86,597 (+35.7%) on 22 September and is at $82,851 (+29.8%). Went against.
𝕏 Post“Triggering a move to the Second Low Band at 44.5k” — @CryptoCon_ on X↗ x.com“Again, the flag typically breaks down after the second major retest of the top, which is now complete. The average drop after a bear flag breakdown is about 30%, but has been as low as 16% and as high as 40%.”
Posted at $77,429. The 2 June mark was $71,320 (−7.9%), and that afternoon CryptoCon posted that the flag had broken. Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−24.4%) on 1 July, 17.9% below the 2 June mark and inside the 16% to 40% range they gave. It never reached the $50,000 that a 30% drop would have meant. It rose to $86,597 (+11.8%) on 22 September and is at $82,851 (+7.0%). The breakdown came. Played out.
𝕏 Post“The flag typically breaks down after the second major retest of the top” — @CryptoCon_ on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin continues its rally from the First Low of the bear market, and it doesn't have anywhere special to be until the Second Low in August - October. Price estimate for that based on the Bear Bands, Golden Ratio Multiplier, and Realized Market Cap is 40-45k.”
Posted at $76,326. Bitcoin's lowest close came early, at $58,566 (−23.3%) on 1 July. Its lowest close from August on was $62,773 (−17.8%) on 2 August. It rose to $86,597 (+13.5%) on 22 September and is at $82,851 (+8.5%). October is not over, but $45,000 is more than 45% below the price now, and CryptoCon has said they were wrong about the bear market. Went against.
𝕏 Post“The Second Low in August - October” at 40-45k — @CryptoCon_ on X↗ x.com“According to other cycles, the most likely next step is a decline to 45k and eventually 35k, where drawdowns unify from June to September.”
Posted at $74,005. Bitcoin did fall: to $58,566 (−20.9%) on 1 July. It never got near $45,000. It rose to $86,597 (+17.0%) on 22 September and is at $82,851 (+12.0%). The fall came, but it stopped well short of the targets. Went against.
𝕏 Post“The most likely next step is a decline to 45k and eventually 35k” — @CryptoCon_ on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not CryptoCon's own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the post linked on its card. Each call is charted at that day's midnight CoinGecko mark; the posts went out between 17:00 and 21:33 UTC. We grade on daily closes. Calls whose time frame runs to the end of the year are graded against CryptoCon's own 21 September statement that they were wrong about the bear market. The “$1,000 in” line on each card assumes buying on the day, even for bearish calls.
CryptoCon's X posts and Telegram alerts are free. The newsletter has a paid tier. Here is what we found.
Their Substack, linked from the X profile, says it has “Over 16,000 subscribers”, free and paid together. The weekly Premium issues are for paying subscribers only, at $59 a month or $599 a year. The 21 September Premium issue was titled “CryptoCon Gets It Wrong!”.
The bio links a free Telegram channel, t.me/cryptoconupdates, that reposts each X post and announces new Premium issues.
On 5 October they wrote “I still have made no crypto purchases/sales since August 2025.” On 10 August they said they had bought AI-related stocks, which they plan to hold until 2034.
“According to other cycles, the most likely next step is a decline to 45k and eventually 35k”
18 Mar 2026 · went against“Never!”
18 Sep 2026 · on giving up the bear case“So, I was wrong that the bear market would continue, and I did not buy the lows at 60k.”
21 Sep 2026 · three days laterQuotes transcribed from their own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
CryptoCon writes the Bitcoin Data Newsletter on Substack and reposts every X post to a free Telegram channel.
A pseudonymous Bitcoin cycle analyst who posts as @CryptoCon_ on X to about 126,000 followers. The account was opened in September 2018. They created the Halving Cycles Theory and write the Bitcoin Data Newsletter. They give no name or country.
On our sample of seven dated calls from 18 March to 2 October 2026: one played out, one is open, five went against. They correctly expected the June bear flag breakdown. Their targets in the $40Ks and below were all missed, and on 21 September they wrote that they were wrong about the bear market.
CryptoCon's own model. It times Bitcoin's cycle around the first halving, with set windows for each high and low. It put the 2026 cycle bottom between November 2026 and January 2027. Bitcoin's lowest close in our window was $58,566 on 1 July.
Through the Bitcoin Data Newsletter on Substack, whose Premium tier costs $59 a month or $599 a year. Their X posts and Telegram alerts are free. They say they have not bought or sold crypto since August 2025.
Not publicly known, and no credible figure exists. Ignore any specific number you see attached to the name.
CryptoCon trusted the cycle calendar over the price for months, then said so when it broke. Would you? Measure your own instinct for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: CryptoCon's public X posts and profile, their Substack and Telegram pages, and the sources linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you CryptoCon? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 11 October 2026
