@caprioleio
The man behind Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value and Production Cost — metrics other analysts quote back at him. Edwards runs a systematic Bitcoin fund and publishes the models it trades, with dates attached. That makes him unusually checkable: when his valuation work says “deep value”, you can look up what price did next.
In short. Charles Edwards founded Capriole Investments in 2019 and manages the Capriole Fund, a licensed and audited systematic fund. He is best known not for price targets but for building the on-chain valuation metrics much of the industry now uses — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, the Bitcoin Yardstick. His public output is a free Substack and a dense X feed of charts. The record below is mixed in a specific, informative way: his slow valuation calls — “this is a value zone, wait for production cost” — worked well through 2026's drawdown, while his fast flow-and-momentum signals — institutional absorption, stablecoin rotation, treasury-company inflections — repeatedly fired within days of local tops. The same institutional-flow metric turned him bullish on 5 May and bearish on 26 May; the bearish half was the one that worked.
Edwards is the founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, which per its own site was “founded in 2019” and “manages the Capriole Fund, a licenced and audited master fund serving investors across over 25 countries,” taking “a systematic approach to investing targeting absolute returns across market cycles.” The structure spans a US limited partnership and two Cayman Islands vehicles, with Australian operations. He is not a retail signals seller: the fund is the business, and the public writing is its shop window.
His durable contribution is measurement, not prediction. Hash Ribbons (miner capitulation), Bitcoin Energy Value and Production Cost (cost-of-mining fair-value bands), the Bitcoin Yardstick and Dynamic Range NVT are his; so are the internal models he names in his letters — Trend King, Macro Index, Bitcoin Perps Heat and the Market Hedge Ratio. Because he publishes the readings with dates, his calls are falsifiable in a way most commentary is not — and that cuts both ways here.
For honesty, a documented miss that sits outside this chart window: on 2 October 2025 Cointelegraph reported him saying Bitcoin “may surge to a new all-time high of $150,000” before the end of 2025. It did not — BTC topped near $126,000. His 2019–2021 Hash Ribbons and Energy Value calls are likewise outside the 210-day price window and are not charted here. A separate, widely recycled “$280,000” figure attributed to a 2024 post could not be traced to an original source, so it is not asserted anywhere on this page.
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
Systematic and valuation-led. Edwards works from cost-of-production and on-chain valuation bands rather than chart patterns: where is price relative to what it costs miners to make a coin, what is the Yardstick saying, is institutional demand above or below daily issuance. Over slow horizons this is genuinely good — it told him to wait through the spring and to call value at the June lows. The weakness shows on short horizons: his flow-based signals (institutional absorption, stablecoin rotation, treasury-company buying) are framed with “typically” and “historically” from small samples, and in this window three bullish ones fired within days of a local top — though the same metric turning bearish on 26 May was a good call, which is the signature of a coincident indicator rather than a leading one. He also names his own invalidation levels, which is a real discipline — he said “above $71.5K” and meant it.
Structurally constructive on Bitcoin as a long-horizon asset, but his current published read is cautious: as of 16 September 2026 he wants a weekly close back above $78K, sees major resistance at $93,500, and describes his bias as bearish over a 12-to-18-month window shaped by long-term-holder selling. Valuation bull, near-term defensive.
Eight dated calls from his own Substack and X feed, plus verbatim quotes in dated press — every one re-fetched live and matched word-for-word against its source before publishing. The split is the story, and it is about horizon, not direction. His valuation work (13 Mar, 9 Jun) was right, the conditional long he defined on 15 April paid and then stopped out exactly where he said it would, and on 26 May he reversed on new data and was right again. His fast flow signals (1 May, 5 May, 4 Sep) each fired within days of a local high — one on the exact top. The eighth call is hours old and open. Five further in-window items were examined and excluded, with the reason for each, in the draft's verified_sources.txt.
“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
Posted with BTC at $75,590, hours after the US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act. He named one level — a weekly close above $78,000 — and said the alternative gets ugly. BTC is $75,974 (+0.5%) as this page is built, still 2.7% below his line. Bitcoin.com News reports Capriole's next major resistance at $93,500 and his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view. Too new to judge — open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
His Market Hedge Ratio (USDT/BTC market cap, rolling 30 days) hit −20.42% and he said downside was “basically capped” with weeks of upside to run. It marked the top to the day: BTC was $81,265 on 4 September and has not traded higher since — high after = +0.0%. It fell to $75,590 (−7.0%) and sits at $75,974 (−6.5%). The clearest miss in the window.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
His own cost-of-mining model, used as intended: at $63,069 he marked the $50K–$63K band as the historical long-term value zone. It worked. BTC dipped only −7.1% to $58,566 on 1 July — inside the band he named — then ran +28.9% to $81,265 by 4 September and holds $75,974 (+20.5%). The best call on this page.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Twenty-one days after the $96K note, the same institutional-flow metric flipped negative and so did he. That call worked: from $77,258 BTC never gained more than +5.2% and fell −24.2% to $58,566 by 1 July; it sits at $75,974 (−1.7%). Credit for reversing fast on new data — but read it against the card below, because it is one indicator contradicting itself inside three weeks, which is the honest case for treating it as coincident rather than predictive.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
His most specific call in the window, and his worst — with the number in his own newsletter, not a reporter's arithmetic. Posted six days before the window high. From $79,826 BTC gained just +2.7% to $82,018 on 11 May against the “double digit returns” the analogue promised, then fell −26.6% to $58,566; it sits at $75,974 (−4.8%). $96,000 was never reached — the window high is 17% short of it. The same issue reported Capriole's Trend King as “leverage long Bitcoin”, so this was his positioning, not just his commentary.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Treasury-company buying bounced off extreme lows and he flagged the inflection as historically bullish — while openly noting the thin sample. The caveat earned its keep: from $76,297 BTC added just +7.5% to $82,018 over ten days, then gave it all back and more, −23.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. Back to $75,974 (−0.4%) — a round trip to nowhere.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
A conditional call with the invalidation stated up front — bullish above $71.5K, and in the same letter: “if the current move breaks down next week… our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly.” It paid, then stopped out exactly as written. From $74,297 BTC rose +10.4% to $82,018 by 11 May; his $71,500 line broke on 2 June at $71,320, and the flush ran to $58,566 (−21.2%). Now $75,974 (+2.3%). Graded on the trade he defined, not the hold.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
The useful half of this call was the refusal: value, yes — but not the deep value that gets him excited, which he placed at the production-cost band of roughly $50,000–$60,000. Investors who waited were right. The outcome is as two-sided as the call: from $70,417 BTC first rose +16.5% to $82,018, then fell −16.8% to $58,566 on 1 July — almost symmetric — clipping the top of the band he named before recovering to $75,974 (+7.9%). He was right that the bottom was closer than the top, and right not to call it. He also said he doubted new all-time highs until quantum risk was addressed by Bitcoin Core — none have come.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring — Capriole's fund returns are not public and nothing here is a claim about them. Every $ and % figure matches scripts/price_at.py exactly. Dates are utterance dates, not the date a write-up appeared: the 5 May and 4 Sep calls are dated to his own post, which the source states explicitly, and the 26 May quote is an X post reproduced verbatim in same-day coverage. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Edwards' business is a fund, not a subscription or a signals group — a materially different incentive structure from most names in this hub, and one worth understanding rather than assuming is cleaner.
Per capriole.com, Capriole Investments was founded in 2019 and manages a “licenced and audited master fund” (a US LP plus two Cayman vehicles) serving investors in 25+ countries. Fund manager economics — management and performance fees — not retail sales.
His newsletter and TradingView indicators are free and un-paywalled, which is why the calls above could be sourced first-hand. The obvious incentive: public research is marketing for the fund, and a fund manager talking his book is talking a live position.
We found no signals subscription, no referral codes and no token promotions in the material reviewed. Absence of evidence in a seven-month sample is not proof — but it is what the record showed.
Fund AUM, returns, his own position sizing, follower count and country of residence are not publicly confirmed, so no figure for any of them appears on this page.
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · his method working — value at the lows“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · posted on the day BTC topped“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · a call with its own invalidation attachedQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
There is no video library to link: Edwards has no channel of his own. He publishes a free Substack, posts charts on X, and appears as a guest elsewhere — which is exactly why every call above is a dated post or a verbatim quote in dated coverage rather than a clip. His own letters behind two of the calls are public and linked on their cards: “Uncharted Waters” (15 Apr 2026) and “Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” (5 May 2026).
Founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, a systematic digital-asset fund launched in 2019. He is best known for creating widely used Bitcoin on-chain metrics — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost and the Bitcoin Yardstick — and for publishing his research free on Substack and X under the handle @caprioleio.
Not publicly verified. He runs a fund rather than selling subscriptions, and Capriole's AUM, fees and returns are not public. Ignore any specific figure — none is confirmed.
His record in this seven-month sample splits cleanly by horizon. Slow valuation work — the March “not deep value yet” refusal and the June production-cost call — was right, the latter ahead of a 28.9% rally, and his 26 May reversal to caution was right too. Fast bullish flow signals were not: three of them in May and September fired within days of local tops, one on the exact top. He is a research source, not a trade alert, and nothing here is financial advice.
Systematic and valuation-led. He values Bitcoin against the cost of producing it (Energy Value, Production Cost, with an Electrical Cost floor), cross-checks with on-chain metrics like the Yardstick, MVRV Z-score and Dynamic Range NVT, and tracks institutional demand against daily mined supply. Capriole trades this through named internal models — Trend King, Macro Index — and he states invalidation levels in public.
Free at caprioleio.substack.com and on X as @caprioleio; the firm is at capriole.com, and his indicators are published on TradingView. There is no paid signals group in the material we reviewed.
Edwards values Bitcoin like a commodity — what does it cost to make, and what is it worth relative to that. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials — his own dated Substack posts and X posts, and dated third-party coverage, linked on each call. Every quote was re-fetched from its source and matched verbatim before publication. Not financial or investment advice, and not a statement about Capriole Investments' fund performance, which is not public. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Charles? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 16 September 2026
