@burak_kesmeci
A Turkish on-chain analyst who posts Bitcoin and Ethereum levels almost every day. The spring and summer reads were right: no bull market below the short-term holders' cost basis, a relief rally capped near $82,018, then the slide to $58,566 on 1 July. The August call for a $70K retest also played out. After the breakout, three calls in a row for a pullback to the low $70Ks did not: Bitcoin's lowest close was $75,590 before it rose to $86,597.
In short. Burak Kesmeci is an on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant verified author who posts in Turkish as @burak_kesmeci. On our sample of nine in-window calls the record is 5 played out, 1 open, 3 went against. The regime calls from April to August were right. The September pullback calls were wrong.
Burak Kesmeci posts on X as @burak_kesmeci, an account opened in June 2021 with about 25,900 followers. The profile gives Ankara as the location and describes Kesmeci as a “Verified Analist at CryptoQuant / KMQuant”. It lists CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Fortune and The Block as outlets that have quoted the analysis. NewsBTC quoted Kesmeci's Coinbase Premium reading on 11 April 2026. We found no public source for Kesmeci's pronouns, so this page uses gender-neutral wording.
Almost everything is written in Turkish. A typical post takes one metric, such as the short-term holders' cost basis (STH RP), the volume-profile point of control (POC), options max pain or the Coinbase Premium Index, and ends with the level that would change the picture. Many posts are conditional: if price closes above one level, expect another. We charted posts that name a direction or a target, and graded the branch that actually triggered.
Every quote on this page is the Turkish original, copied from the post. Each card summary gives our own translation. We read the whole timeline from March onward, about 1,600 posts and replies, and picked nine calls across six months. We left out posts that only list levels to watch, and gold, oil and Borsa İstanbul posts, because this site tracks crypto prices only.
Sources: x.com/burak_kesmeci (own posts, Turkish) · burakkesmeci.substack.com · newsbtc.com
Cost bases first, then levels. Kesmeci reads Bitcoin through what different holder groups paid for their coins, and through volume and options levels. The rule repeated all year is simple: no bull market until price closes above the short-term holders' cost basis. That rule kept Kesmeci on the right side from April to July. The short-term chart calls, on 4-hour and daily charts, missed more often, especially after the August breakout.
Bearish on the big picture from March to July, while Bitcoin stayed below the short-term holders' cost basis, but open to relief rallies. Constructive from early July on Ethereum and from mid-August on Bitcoin. After the late-August rally, repeatedly expected a pullback to the low $70Ks. In late September, neutral, with levels on both sides.
Nine dated posts from @burak_kesmeci, each fetched from X, checked word for word against the Turkish original, and charted against real price. The tally is 5 played out, 1 open, 3 went against.
“Haftaya başlarken Bitcoin 87,500 üstü kapatırsa merdiven dizmeye devam eder.”
A two-way weekly plan, posted at $84,417. The post says: a close above $87,500 keeps the staircase going; in a profit-taking scenario, $77,000 to $79,000 could be tested. Neither has happened. Bitcoin dipped to $83,479 (−1.1%) on 29 September and rose to $86,490 (+2.5%) on 5 October. It is at $85,466 (+1.2%). Open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin 87,500 üstü kapatırsa merdiven dizmeye devam eder” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“An itibariyle kısa vadeli yatırımcıların maliyeti 71,1K. Test edilebilir.”
Charted at $78,283. The post says: at the end of a bear season, Bitcoin usually retests the short-term holders' cost basis after breaking it; that cost basis is now $71,100, and it could be tested. The post went out at 20:42 UTC, and the next day's mark was $76,555 (−2.2%). The lowest close was $75,590 (−3.4%) on 16 September, well above $71,100. Bitcoin then rose to $86,597 (+10.6%) on 22 September and is at $85,466 (+9.2%). Went against.
𝕏 Post“kısa vadeli yatırımcıların maliyeti 71,1K. Test edilebilir.” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin'de LTF'de negatif uyumsuzluk masada: BTC 72K'ya kadar geri çekilebilir.”
Posted at $79,093. The post says: a bearish divergence on the lower time frames, so Bitcoin could pull back to $72,000; closes below $77,400 would open room to $72,300. Bitcoin did close below $77,400, at $76,555 (−3.2%) on 11 September, but the lowest close was $75,590 (−4.4%) on 16 September. It then rose to $86,597 (+9.5%) and is at $85,466 (+8.1%). Went against.
𝕏 Post“BTC 72K'ya kadar geri çekilebilir” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“Olası bir düzeltmede (ki sağlıklı olan bu olur) 70K - 72K bölgesi test edilebilir.”
Charted at $73,021, but posted at 21:28 UTC after a rally of about 26% in four days; the next day's mark was $78,318 (+7.3%), so that jump came before the post. The post says: momentum is slowing, and in a correction, which would be healthy, the $70,000 to $72,000 zone could be tested. The lowest close after the post was $75,590 (+3.5%) on 16 September, above the zone. Bitcoin rose to $86,597 (+18.6%) and is at $85,466 (+17.0%). Went against.
𝕏 Post“Olası bir düzeltmede … 70K - 72K bölgesi test edilebilir.” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“Ama SMA50 üstü kalır ve alıcılar da iştahlanabilirse (petrol ve tahvil'e dikkat) işte o zaman 70K test edilebilir.”
Posted at $63,916, after about 69 days between $62,000 and $65,000. The post says: if Bitcoin stays above its 50-day average and buyers get hungry, $70,000 can be tested. Bitcoin first dipped briefly below the average, to $62,844 (−1.7%) on 17 August, then marked $69,291 (+8.4%) on 20 August and $73,021 (+14.2%) on 21 August. It went on to $86,597 (+35.5%) and is at $85,466 (+33.7%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“işte o zaman 70K test edilebilir” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“1.678 üstünde tutunuldukça gözüm yukarıda 1.767 ve 1.828'de olacak.”
Charted at $1,699. The post went out at 15:24 UTC with Ether at $1,738, by Kesmeci's own figure, and the next day's mark was $1,757 (+3.4%). The post says: Ether has bottomed locally at $1,506 and broken $1,678, so the short-term direction is up; while it holds above $1,678, the targets are $1,767 and $1,828. Ether's lowest close after was $1,742 (+2.6%) on 9 July. It marked $1,890 (+11.3%) on 15 July and reached $2,775 (+63.4%) on 22 September. It is at $2,699 (+58.9%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“kısa vadede yön artık yukarı diyebiliriz” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“Kısa vadede 2.033 seviyesindeki (fib 0.5) direnç aşılamadığı sürece hedef 1.822 (fib 0.236) – 1.850 bandı olarak öne çıkıyor.”
Posted at $2,013. The post says: as long as the $2,033 resistance holds, the short-term target is the $1,822 to $1,850 band. Ether's highest close after the post was $2,022 (+0.5%) on 31 May, below $2,033. It fell to $1,858 (−7.7%) on 3 June and $1,812 (−10.0%) on 4 June, through the band, and kept falling to $1,569 (−22.1%) on 7 June. It is at $2,699 (+34.1%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“ETH 2.033 Direncini Aşamazsa Hedef 1.822–1.850 Bandı.” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“SMA50 altında bir haftalık kapanış gelirse satıcı baskısının derinleşmesi beklenebilir.”
Posted at $77,550, after Bitcoin lost $78,000 and slipped below its 50-day average. The post says: a weekly close below the 50-day average would mean deeper selling. The weekly close of 31 May, at $73,820 (−4.8%), was below the average. Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 (−24.5%) on 1 July. It is at $85,466 (+10.2%), but the fall came first. Played out.
𝕏 Post“satıcı baskısının derinleşmesi beklenebilir” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.com“Ancak, Bitcoin'in max pain ve POC seviyelerinin (70K) üstünde fiyatlıyor olması STH RP'ye kadar 82-85'e kadar alan açabilir. Yine de bu durum sadece tepki yükselişi, kısa vadeli bir rahatlama olarak kalır.”
Posted at $71,662, in a post that asked whether the bull market had arrived and answered with a very clear no. It went on: holding above $70,000 could open room up to the short-term holders' cost basis at $82,000 to $85,000, but that would only be a relief rally. Bitcoin rose to $82,018 (+14.5%) on 11 May and turned down there. It fell to $58,566 (−18.3%) on 1 July and did not close above $85,000 until 22 September, at $86,597 (+20.8%). It is at $85,466 (+19.3%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin'de BOĞA geldi mi? Cevabım çok net bir şekilde HAYIR.” — @burak_kesmeci on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not the author's own scoring. Quotes are the Turkish originals; the summaries give our own translation. Each call is charted at that day's midnight CoinGecko mark, but Kesmeci posts in the afternoon or evening UTC, so the chart can include part of the day before the post. Where that matters, the card says so and gives the next day's mark. The “$1,000 in” line on each card assumes buying on the day. On the bearish cards it shows what a buyer would have lost, not what Kesmeci said to do.
Kesmeci's X posts and newsletter are free to read. Here is what we found about how the work is paid for.
The free Substack newsletter, “TradingView Öğreniyorum”, names the Turkish brokerage app Midas as its sponsor and links to it. Several X posts promoting Midas products are tagged #işbirliği, Turkish for a paid collaboration.
Paid subscriptions are switched off on Kesmeci's Substack. A March 2026 post put the readership at more than 1,400 subscribers. The newsletter mostly teaches TradingView tools, with some Borsa İstanbul examples.
Kesmeci is a verified author on CryptoQuant, the on-chain data platform. We could not find out whether that role is paid.
“Bitcoin'de BOĞA geldi mi? Cevabım çok net bir şekilde HAYIR.”
8 Apr 2026 · played out“işte o zaman 70K test edilebilir”
11 Aug 2026 · played out“BTC 72K'ya kadar geri çekilebilir”
8 Sep 2026 · went againstQuotes transcribed from their own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
Kesmeci posts several charts a day on X, in Turkish, and writes a free Substack newsletter about TradingView tools. A YouTube channel for the same series opened in March 2026.
An on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant verified author who posts Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis in Turkish on X as @burak_kesmeci, with about 26,000 followers. The X profile gives Ankara as the location.
On our sample of nine dated calls from 8 April to 27 September 2026: five played out, one is open, three went against. The regime calls from April to August were right. Three pullback calls in late August and September were wrong.
No paid tier that we could find. The X posts and the Substack newsletter are free. The newsletter is sponsored by the Turkish brokerage app Midas, and some X posts are tagged as paid collaborations.
The average price paid by holders whose coins last moved fewer than 155 days ago. Kesmeci treats a weekly close above it as the first condition for a bull market, and a close below it as a sign of bear season.
Not publicly known, and no credible figure exists. Ignore any specific number you see attached to the name.
Kesmeci reads Bitcoin through holder cost bases. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: dated posts on x.com/burak_kesmeci, the public Substack and the sources linked on each call. Quotes are Turkish originals; the summaries give our own translation. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Kesmeci? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 6 October 2026
