@Andre_Dragosch
Bitwise's head of research in Europe, who reads Bitcoin through macro and liquidity. He said on 7 June that the bottom was close, at $60,855, and it came 24 days later at $58,566. He was early on the August turn. But in March he said a recession was already priced in, before a further fall of about a fifth, and in August he expected a pullback that did not come.
In short. André Dragosch is Bitwise's head of research for Europe and posts on X as @Andre_Dragosch. On our sample of nine in-window calls the record is 6 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. His bottom and turn calls from June to August were good. His early view that the downside was already priced in was not.
André Dragosch is Director and Head of Research — Europe at Bitwise, the crypto fund manager. Bitwise's own research pages list him with that title and a PhD. His X bio says “Views strictly mine” and “Not investment advice”, and gives his location as Frankfurt am Main.
He wrote the book Exponential Gold: An Institutional Investor's Guide to Bitcoin & Cryptoassets, which he announced on X. Bitcoin Magazine interviewed him on 29 September 2026 about bond yields and a $197,000 model value for Bitcoin.
Most of his posts are about macro: oil, bond yields, the Fed, the AI trade and global money supply. Many describe data without a view on Bitcoin's price. We charted only posts that state a direction, a bottom, a regime or a level for Bitcoin. His views before March 2026 fall outside our price window and are not graded here.
Sources: x.com/Andre_Dragosch (own posts) · bitwiseinvestments.eu · bitcoinmagazine.com
Macro first, then cost bases. André reads Bitcoin as the “canary in the macro coal mine”: it prices in tighter or easier money before stocks do. He adds on-chain cost levels, such as the ETF cost basis and the True Market Mean, and options volatility. He is usually constructive on Bitcoin and argues that bad news is already priced in.
Constructive on Bitcoin all through the window, even during the fall to the 1 July low. In March and April he argued that a recession was already priced in. In May he said the rebound was stretched, and in June that the bottom was close. From July he called a turn to a bull regime. In late August he expected a short pullback first, and on 30 August he posted that Bitcoin “will never be below $60k again”.
Nine dated calls from André Dragosch, all from his own X posts, each checked verbatim against the post and charted against real price. The tally is 6 played out, 1 open, 2 went against.
“I think we will reject at the ETF cost basis and consolidate first because sentiment is very elevated. But I think overall the outlook is very much constructive. I think we will retrace back to the TMM and possibly back to the STH cost basis but then continue the bull market.”
Posted at $78,974, in reply to another user. Bitcoin stalled at $80,268 (+1.6%) on 28 August, then fell to $75,590 (−4.3%) on 16 September, close to the True Market Mean he had put at about $76K on 21 August. It did not reach the short-term holder cost basis, which he had put at about $68.5K. Then it rose to $86,597 (+9.7%) on 22 September. It is at $84,009 (+6.4%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“I think we will reject at the ETF cost basis and consolidate first” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“Remember: Last year's closing price was around ~$87.5k If bitcoin still follows the 🟢🟢🟢🔴pattern, then we should at least reclaim that level again.”
Posted at $77,712. The level is Bitcoin's 2025 closing price. The post gives no deadline. Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%) on 16 September and rose to $86,597 (+11.4%) on 22 September, short of the level. It is at $84,009 (+8.1%). Open.
𝕏 Post“we should at least reclaim that level again” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“Quite likely that we will see a short-term setback in #Bitcoin but what about the longer term?”
Posted at $69,291. In the same post he said he “couldn't be more bullish for the long term”, and that part is going well. The short-term setback did not come. Bitcoin rose to $80,268 (+15.8%) on 28 August. Its lowest close since was $75,590 (+9.1%) on 16 September, still well above where he posted. It is at $84,009 (+21.2%). As a setback call, it went against.
𝕏 Post“Quite likely that we will see a short-term setback in #Bitcoin” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“Extremely low levels of implied vol usually resolve via upside moves. Path of least resistance for bitcoin is up.”
Posted at $63,429, when Bitcoin's implied volatility fell below 40. Bitcoin dipped to $62,844 (−0.9%) on 17 August, then broke out. It rose to $86,597 (+36.5%) on 22 September and is at $84,009 (+32.4%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“Path of least resistance for bitcoin is up.” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“July is shaping up to be the month where we transition from a bear to a bull regime for bitcoin”
Posted at $59,968, the day after the low. He added that Bitcoin would likely “frontrun the consensus expectation of a bottom in October”. Bitcoin never closed lower. The turn came later than July, though: it was at $64,743 (+8.0%) on 31 July and still at $64,686 (+7.9%) on 19 August, before the rally. It rose to $86,597 (+44.4%) on 22 September and is at $84,009 (+40.1%). Played out, a month late.
𝕏 Post“July is shaping up to be the month where we transition from a bear to a bull regime for bitcoin” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“My #Bitcoin bottom probability model has started increasing. Bottom not yet in but we are finally getting closer.”
Posted at $60,855. Both halves held. Bitcoin made its low at $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, 24 days later, and never closed lower. It rose to $86,597 (+42.3%) on 22 September and is at $84,009 (+38.0%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“Bottom not yet in but we are finally getting closer.” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“Hate to say it but I think that recent rebound in #bitcoin is somewhat stretched in the short term. Both cryptoasset & cross asset sentiment have become quite bullish. Think we bounce off the cost bases at around 80k-81k 1st before reclaiming them for good.”
Posted at $79,826. Bitcoin poked just above the zone, to $82,018 (+2.7%) on 11 May, then turned down to $58,566 (−26.6%) on 1 July. It got back above $81K on 20 September and has closed above it every day since. It is at $84,009 (+5.2%). Played out.
𝕏 Post“Hate to say it but I think that recent rebound in #bitcoin is somewhat stretched in the short term.” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“Risk-reward from a macro POV for #bitcoin is significantly skewed to the upside as $btc has been pricing in a recession already well in advance.”
Posted at $66,888, in the last part of a thread. Bitcoin rose to $82,018 (+22.6%) on 11 May. It then fell to $58,566 (−12.4%) on 1 July, so a buyer had to sit through a deep dip. It is at $84,009 (+25.6%). The upside came first and was larger. Played out.
𝕏 Post“Risk-reward from a macro POV for #bitcoin is significantly skewed to the upside” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.com“In other words - even if a global recession materialised, #bitcoin is probably reflecting this already after the -50% drawdown since October 2025.”
Posted at $74,005, ending with “Prepare accordingly...”. Bitcoin rose to $82,018 (+10.8%) on 11 May. But the bad news was not all priced in: it then fell to $58,566 (−20.9%) on 1 July. It is at $84,009 (+13.5%). As a limited-downside call, it went against.
𝕏 Post“even if a global recession materialised, #bitcoin is probably reflecting this already” — @Andre_Dragosch on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the post linked on its card. Each call is charted at that day's midnight CoinGecko mark. The 3 April post went out at 20:39 UTC; the next day's mark was $66,823, almost the same. The 25 August post is a reply to another user, and the cost-basis levels on that card are the ones he gave in his own posts that week. Many of his posts are about macro with no view on Bitcoin's price, and we left those out. The “$1,000 in” line on each card assumes buying Bitcoin on the day. On the bearish cards it shows what a buyer would have lost or made, not what he said to do.
André's X posts are free to read. Here is how his work is paid for.
He is a director and head of research for Europe at Bitwise, which sells crypto ETPs, ETFs and other funds. Fund fees grow with assets, so his employer gains when investors buy crypto. His research notes and webinars are free and also market those funds.
He wrote Exponential Gold, a book on Bitcoin for institutional investors, sold on Amazon. The link in his X bio goes to Amazon through a tagged referral link.
He has not stated publicly whether he holds Bitcoin, and we found no disclosure. He signs posts “Stay humble and stack Sats”.
“Bottom not yet in but we are finally getting closer.”
7 Jun 2026 · played out“Path of least resistance for bitcoin is up.”
14 Aug 2026 · played out“Quite likely that we will see a short-term setback in #Bitcoin”
20 Aug 2026 · went againstQuotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
André posts macro charts on X most days, with links to Bitwise Europe's free weekly research and monthly webinars.
Director and head of research for Europe at Bitwise, the crypto fund manager. He holds a PhD, wrote the book Exponential Gold, and posts on X as @Andre_Dragosch, with about 20,000 followers. His X location is Frankfurt am Main.
On our sample of nine dated calls from 18 March to 25 August 2026: six played out, one is open, two went against. His June bottom call and his August turn calls were right. His March view that the downside was priced in, and his 20 August pullback call, were not.
His X posts and Bitwise Europe's research notes are free. He works for Bitwise, which earns fees on its crypto funds, and his book is sold on Amazon.
The average price at which money flowed into the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. In April he put it at about $81,000, near the short-term holder cost basis and the True Market Mean, and called that zone the line between bear and bull.
Not publicly known, and no credible figure exists. Ignore any specific number you see attached to the name.
André reads Bitcoin through macro and cost bases. How close is your instinct? Measure it for real with a Trader Passport.
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials: his public X posts and profile and the sources linked on each call. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you André? Submit a correction →
Verified handles · Sources cited above · Scoring methodology · Updated 7 October 2026
