@caprioleio
O homem por trás de Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value e Production Cost — métricas que outros analistas citam de volta para ele. Edwards dirige um fundo sistemático de bitcoin e publica os modelos com que ele opera, com data. Isso o torna incomumente verificável: quando o trabalho de valuation dele diz «valor profundo», dá para ir ver o que o preço fez depois.
Em resumo. Charles Edwards fundou a Capriole Investments em 2019 e gere o Capriole Fund, um fundo sistemático licenciado e auditado. Ele é conhecido não por alvos de preço, mas por construir as métricas de valuation on-chain que boa parte da indústria hoje usa — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, o Bitcoin Yardstick. Sua produção pública é um Substack gratuito e um feed denso de gráficos no X. O histórico abaixo é misto de um jeito bem informativo: suas chamadas lentas de valuation — «isto é uma zona de valor, espere o custo de produção» — funcionaram bem ao longo da queda de 2026, enquanto seus sinais rápidos de fluxo e momento — absorção institucional, rotação de stablecoins, inflexões de empresas de tesouraria — dispararam repetidamente a poucos dias dos topos locais. A mesma métrica de fluxo institucional o deixou altista em 5 de maio e baixista em 26 de maio; a metade que funcionou foi a baixista.
Edwards é fundador e CEO da Capriole Investments, que, segundo o próprio site, foi «fundada em 2019» e «gere o Capriole Fund, um fundo máster licenciado e auditado que atende investidores em mais de 25 países», adotando «uma abordagem sistemática de investimento visando retornos absolutos ao longo dos ciclos de mercado». A estrutura abrange uma limited partnership norte-americana e dois veículos nas Ilhas Cayman, com operações na Austrália. Ele não é vendedor de sinais para o varejo: o negócio é o fundo, e os textos públicos são a vitrine dele.
Sua contribuição duradoura é a mensuração, não a previsão. Hash Ribbons (capitulação de mineradores), Bitcoin Energy Value e Production Cost (faixas de valor justo pelo custo de mineração), o Bitcoin Yardstick e o Dynamic Range NVT são dele; assim como os modelos internos que ele nomeia em suas cartas — Trend King, Macro Index, Bitcoin Perps Heat e o Market Hedge Ratio. Como ele publica as leituras com data, suas chamadas são falseáveis de um jeito que a maior parte do comentário não é — e isso corta para os dois lados.
Por honestidade, um erro documentado que fica fora desta janela de gráfico: em 2 de outubro de 2025 a Cointelegraph noticiou que ele disse que o bitcoin «pode disparar para uma nova máxima histórica de $150,000» antes do fim de 2025. Não aconteceu — o BTC fez topo perto de $126,000. Suas chamadas de Hash Ribbons e Energy Value de 2019–2021 também estão fora da janela de preço de 210 dias e não são plotadas aqui. Um número separado e muito reciclado de «$280,000», atribuído a um post de 2024, não pôde ser rastreado até a fonte original e por isso não é afirmado em nenhum ponto desta página.
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
Sistemático e guiado por valuation. Edwards parte do custo de produção e de faixas de valor on-chain em vez de padrões gráficos: onde está o preço em relação ao que custa a um minerador produzir uma moeda, o que diz o Yardstick, se a demanda institucional está acima ou abaixo da emissão diária. Em horizontes longos isso é genuinamente bom — foi o que lhe disse para esperar durante a primavera e para declarar valor nas mínimas de junho. A fraqueza aparece em horizontes curtos: seus sinais de fluxo (absorção institucional, rotação de stablecoins, compras de empresas de tesouraria) são formulados com «tipicamente» e «historicamente» a partir de amostras pequenas, e nesta janela três altistas dispararam a poucos dias de um topo local — embora a mesma métrica virar baixista em 26 de maio tenha sido uma boa chamada, o que é justamente a assinatura de um indicador coincidente e não antecedente. Ele também nomeia seus próprios níveis de invalidação, e isso é disciplina de verdade: ele disse «acima de $71.5K» e falava sério.
Turned constructive in late September. On 16 September he wanted a weekly close back above $78K, and Bitcoin.com News reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view. Once that line was reclaimed his own posts flipped: on 24 September the Bitcoin Yardstick “says: bear market is over” — with a warning of 6-8 weeks of chop first — and on 1 October he called the end of the biggest miner capitulation since 2021 “a macro trend change”. Valuation bull, now leaning bullish near-term as well, chop caveat attached.
Ten dated calls from his own Substack and X feed, plus verbatim quotes in dated press — every one re-fetched live and matched word-for-word against its source before publishing. The split is the story, and it is about horizon, not direction. His valuation work (13 Mar, 9 Jun) was right, the conditional long he defined on 15 April paid and then stopped out exactly where he said it would, on 26 May he reversed on new data and was right again, and the $78K line he drew on 16 September was reclaimed within days. His fast flow signals (1 May, 5 May, 4 Sep) each fired within days of a local high — one on the day itself. His two newest calls, the Yardstick's “bear market is over” (24 Sep) and the end of miner capitulation on his Hash Ribbons (1 Oct), are still open. Five further in-window items were examined and excluded, with the reason for each, in the draft's verified_sources.txt.
“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining and killed 50% of the network overnight in 2021. Hash Rate is seeing its first signs of growth since 2025. This is a macro trend change and how Hash Ribbons should be interpreted in the new era of efficiency.”
His own indicator, read by its author: the miner capitulation Hash Ribbons was built to track is over, and he called it “a macro trend change”. He signed off with “If you know, you know what this means” rather than a level — the end of a capitulation is what his Hash Ribbons buy signal marks, but he gave no target and no timeframe. Posted at 05:37 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $83,576. BTC has since reached $84,842 (+1.5%) and is $84,793 (+1.5%). Three days old — open.
𝕏 Post“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time.”
His own valuation metric — market cap over hash rate — leaving its deep-discount zone, and the most bullish thing he has said in this window. He pointed to 2020 and 2023, when price more than doubled from here, but set no target, and in the same post warned that “both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up.” So far the caveat is the accurate half: from $84,382 BTC has held a $83,479–$84,842 range (−1.1% to +0.5%) and is $84,793 (+0.5%) ten days on. It is also an about-face from his 16 September warning, made once his $78K line had been reclaimed. Open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
Posted with BTC at $75,590, hours after the US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act. He named one level — a weekly close above $78,000 — and said the alternative gets ugly. The market took the good branch: BTC was back above $78K by 19 September, has held above it at every daily point since, and the day of his post is still the low. It ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and is $84,793 (+12.2%). This was a warning, not a rally forecast, so the credit is for naming the right pivot. Bitcoin.com News had reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view; his own posts since have turned bullish — see the two cards above.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
His Market Hedge Ratio (USDT/BTC market cap, rolling 30 days) hit −20.42% and he said downside was “basically capped” with weeks of upside to run. The next two weeks said otherwise: from $81,265 on 4 September BTC fell −7.0% to $75,590 by the 16th. The upside did come, but late — BTC first traded above his entry on 22 September, 18 days on, at $86,597 (+6.6%), and sits at $84,793 (+4.3%). Graded against on what he claimed for the weeks that followed: a 7% drawdown first is not capped downside.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
His own cost-of-mining model, used as intended: at $63,069 he marked the $50K–$63K band as the historical long-term value zone. It worked. BTC dipped only −7.1% to $58,566 on 1 July — inside the band he named — then ran +37.3% to $86,597 by 22 September and holds $84,793 (+34.4%). The best call on this page.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Twenty-one days after the $96K note, the same institutional-flow metric flipped negative and so did he. That call worked: from $77,258 BTC fell −24.2% to $58,566 by 1 July and was never more than +5.2% above his post until 22 September — four months on — when it reached $86,597 (+12.1%); it sits at $84,793 (+9.8%). Credit for reversing fast on new data — but read it against the card below, because it is one indicator contradicting itself inside three weeks, which is the honest case for treating it as coincident rather than predictive.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
His most specific call in the window, and his worst — with the number in his own newsletter, not a reporter's arithmetic. Posted six days before the May high. From $79,826 BTC gained just +2.7% to $82,018 on 11 May against the “double digit returns” the analogue promised, then fell −26.6% to $58,566; it sits at $84,793 (+6.2%) five months later. $96,000 was never reached — even the 22 September high of $86,597 is 9.8% short of it. The same issue reported Capriole's Trend King as “leverage long Bitcoin”, so this was his positioning, not just his commentary.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Treasury-company buying bounced off extreme lows and he flagged the inflection as historically bullish — while openly noting the thin sample. The caveat earned its keep: from $76,297 BTC added just +7.5% to $82,018 over ten days, then gave it all back and more, −23.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. It is $84,793 (+11.1%) five months on, but only by way of that drawdown — not the bullish inflection the post pointed to.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
A conditional call with the invalidation stated up front — bullish above $71.5K, and in the same letter: “if the current move breaks down next week… our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly.” It paid, then stopped out exactly as written. From $74,297 BTC rose +10.4% to $82,018 by 11 May; his $71,500 line broke on 2 June at $71,320, and the flush ran to $58,566 (−21.2%). Now $84,793 (+14.1%). Graded on the trade he defined, not the hold.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
The useful half of this call was the refusal: value, yes — but not the deep value that gets him excited, which he placed at the production-cost band of roughly $50,000–$60,000. Investors who waited were right. The outcome is as two-sided as the call: from $70,417 BTC first rose +16.5% to $82,018, then fell −16.8% to $58,566 on 1 July — almost symmetric — clipping the top of the band he named before recovering to $86,597 (+23.0%) on 22 September; it is $84,793 (+20.4%) now. He was right that the bottom was closer than the top, and right not to call it. He also said he doubted new all-time highs until quantum risk was addressed by Bitcoin Core — none have come.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring — Capriole's fund returns are not public and nothing here is a claim about them. Every $ and % figure matches scripts/price_at.py exactly. Dates are utterance dates, not the date a write-up appeared: the 5 May and 4 Sep calls are dated to his own post, which the source states explicitly, and the 26 May quote is an X post reproduced verbatim in same-day coverage. The 24 Sep and 1 Oct posts went up at 04:36 and 05:37 UTC and are charted at that day's 00:00 UTC point. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
O negócio de Edwards é um fundo, não uma assinatura nem um grupo de sinais — uma estrutura de incentivos materialmente diferente da maioria dos nomes deste hub, e que vale entender em vez de presumir que é mais limpa.
Segundo o capriole.com, a Capriole Investments foi fundada em 2019 e gere um «fundo máster licenciado e auditado» (uma LP nos EUA mais dois veículos em Cayman) que atende investidores em mais de 25 países. Economia de gestor de fundo — taxas de administração e de performance — e não venda no varejo.
A newsletter e os indicadores dele no TradingView são gratuitos e sem paywall, e é por isso que as chamadas acima puderam ser documentadas em primeira mão. O incentivo óbvio: pesquisa pública é marketing para o fundo, e um gestor falando do próprio livro está falando de uma posição viva.
Não encontramos assinatura de sinais, códigos de indicação ou promoção de tokens no material analisado. Ausência de evidência numa amostra de sete meses não é prova — mas é o que o registro mostrou.
O patrimônio sob gestão do fundo, os retornos, o tamanho das posições dele, o número de seguidores e o país de residência não são publicamente confirmados, então nenhum número sobre qualquer um deles aparece nesta página.
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · o método dele funcionando — valor nas mínimas“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · posted on the day of a local top“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · uma chamada com a própria invalidação embutidaCitações retiradas das próprias fontes públicas; são opiniões declaradas, não recomendações.
Não há biblioteca de vídeo para linkar: Edwards não tem canal próprio. Ele publica um Substack gratuito, posta gráficos no X e aparece como convidado em outros lugares — que é exatamente por que cada chamada acima é um post datado ou uma citação textual em cobertura datada, e não um clipe. As cartas dele por trás de duas das chamadas são públicas e estão linkadas nos respectivos cartões: «Uncharted Waters» (15 abr 2026) e «Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin» (5 mai 2026).
Fundador e CEO da Capriole Investments, um fundo sistemático de ativos digitais lançado em 2019. É mais conhecido por criar métricas on-chain de bitcoin amplamente usadas — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost e o Bitcoin Yardstick — e por publicar sua pesquisa gratuitamente no Substack e no X sob o perfil @caprioleio.
Não verificado publicamente. Ele dirige um fundo em vez de vender assinaturas, e o patrimônio sob gestão, as taxas e os retornos da Capriole não são públicos. Ignore qualquer número específico — nenhum está confirmado.
His record in this seven-month sample splits cleanly by horizon. Slow valuation work — the March “not deep value yet” refusal and the June production-cost call — was right, the latter ahead of a 37.3% rally, and his 26 May reversal to caution was right too. Fast bullish flow signals were not: three of them in May and September fired within days of local tops, one on the day of a local top. He is a research source, not a trade alert, and nothing here is financial advice.
Sistemática e guiada por valuation. Ele avalia o bitcoin contra o custo de produzi-lo (Energy Value, Production Cost, com o Electrical Cost como piso), confere com métricas on-chain como Yardstick, MVRV Z-score e Dynamic Range NVT, e acompanha a demanda institucional contra a emissão minerada diária. A Capriole opera isso por meio de modelos internos nomeados — Trend King, Macro Index — e ele declara seus níveis de invalidação em público.
Gratuitamente em caprioleio.substack.com e no X como @caprioleio; a firma está em capriole.com, e seus indicadores são publicados no TradingView. Não há grupo pago de sinais no material que analisamos.
Edwards avalia o bitcoin como uma commodity — quanto custa produzi-lo e quanto ele vale em relação a isso. Quão perto está o seu instinto? Meça de verdade com um Trader Passport.
Agora coloque sua abordagem para trabalhar. Teste sua vantagem com dados de mercado ao vivo — sem risco de capital — em um torneio gratuito da BuyCrypt com prêmios reais.
Análise informativa e educacional baseada estritamente em materiais publicamente disponíveis — seus próprios posts datados no Substack e no X, e cobertura datada de terceiros, linkados em cada chamada. Cada citação foi recarregada da fonte e conferida textualmente antes da publicação. Não é aconselhamento financeiro ou de investimento, nem uma afirmação sobre o desempenho do fundo da Capriole Investments, que não é público. Os números são aproximados e mudam constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Charles? Envie uma correção →
Perfis verificados · Fontes citadas acima · Metodologia de avaliação · Atualizado 4 October 2026
