@MarkYusko
El gestor de fondos patrimoniales que habla de valor razonable, no de objetivos de precio. Yusko pasa a bitcoin por un modelo de valor de red, compra cuando el modelo dice que está barato y le pone fechas al ciclo — lo que lo hace inusualmente verificable, y hace verificables también sus errores.
En resumen. Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn — a date that came and went with no new low. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
Yusko (n. 1963, criado en Seattle) tiene un BS por Notre Dame y un MBA por la Universidad de Chicago. Entró en la oficina de inversiones de Notre Dame como assistant investment officer en octubre de 1993 y fue su senior investment director hasta 1998; después fundó y dirigió la UNC Management Company, la oficina de inversiones del endowment de la Universidad de Carolina del Norte en Chapel Hill, de 1998 a 2004. A ambas llevó el «modelo endowment», cargado de activos alternativos. En 2004 fundó Morgan Creek Capital Management, y en 2018 Morgan Creek Digital, que se asoció con Bitwise para lanzar un Digital Asset Index Fund institucional. Una entrevista de 2026 describió el brazo digital como gestor de $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
El historial no es uniformemente bueno, y el dosier lo dice: el Endowment Fund, su asociación con Salient Partners, creció hasta unos $3.5 billion antes de que los problemas de rendimiento llevaran a su destitución en enero de 2013. En cripto su convicción viene de lejos — su nombre en X, «Two Point One Quadrillion», es el número de satoshis existentes — y también su cifra a largo plazo: en una entrevista del 15 de febrero de 2026 dijo estar «pretty comfortable» con que bitcoin llegue a $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029. Esa misma entrevista contiene la llamada que este dosier no puede graficar pero no va a esconder: situó el suelo de este ciclo en $58,000–$63,000 llegando alrededor del 30 de septiembre–1 de octubre de 2026. El nivel fue casi perfecto — el mínimo de bitcoin hasta ahora es $58,566 — pero se imprimió el 1 de julio, tres meses antes, y en los meses intermedios estuvo diciendo que los mínimos ya estaban hechos.
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
Macro basada en valoración, con reloj de endowment. Yusko no dibuja líneas de tendencia. Pregunta cuánto vale una red — la ley de Metcalfe aplicada a los usuarios y transacciones de bitcoin, vía el modelo de Tim Peterson — y compra semanalmente cuando el precio está por debajo de ese número, sin intentar acertar el día. Alrededor hay una lectura top-down de liquidez, degradación del fiat, posicionamiento en el mercado de futuros y el ciclo de halving de cuatro años, que trata como un calendario con precisión de 364 días desde el pico anterior. La fortaleza es que sigue comprando en una caída que asusta a todos los demás. La debilidad es el mismo rasgo: un modelo que dice «barato» en $70,000 también lo dice en $60,000, y sus previsiones de tiempos del ciclo han sido repetidamente prematuras.
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a price in the $80,000s, a $600–700k 2029 target). He spent early September calling the tape “bear market action” and pointing at a 5 October low, then turned: on 22 September he said the uptrend to $125,000 and $250,000 had begun, and on 2 October he posted “Looking Like Uptober”. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His 6 September warning — a possible drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low — did not. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because it predates the price window.
“Looking Like Uptober… 🧡🚀”
Three days before his own 5 October cycle-low date, he quote-posted Morgan Creek's Digital Currents episode — “‘Uptober’ or head fake?” — and answered it: Uptober. A day earlier he had hedged the same idea (“when everyone starts taking about something, it usually doesn’t happen”). Posted at 20:34 UTC, so the chart's 2 October point of $84,842 is that day's midnight price; the next point, $84,506, was barely different. Since then BTC has topped at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and sits at $84,009 (−1.0%). Five days in — open.
𝕏 Post“Looking Like Uptober…” — @MarkYusko on X↗ x.com“So, I think this will be not like straight up to 125 and straight up to 250, but I do think the durability of the trend will be better.”
Talking to Coinage's Zack Guzman (uploaded 22 September), he said Bitcoin had moved from distribution into accumulation and that the path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun — slowly, not vertically. It is a flip from his 6 September “not out of the woods” call, made before his own 5 October date. He made it on the best close of the whole rebound: $86,597, which BTC has not bettered since. Low since $83,479 (−3.6%), now $84,009 (−3.0%). A long-horizon thesis two weeks old — open.
SourceWhy the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. It worked: BTC has not closed lower since, ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+11.1%). He called it on the exact low of the September dip.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. A month later the exit is offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $122 (+18.3%) and sits at $118 (+14.5%). Still far too early to score a multi-year exit made on governance grounds — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. His date has now passed and the drop never came. The worst close was $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September; BTC then ran to $86,597 (+8.5%), closed $86,490 on 5 October itself and sits at $84,009 (+5.2%). By 2 October he was posting “Looking Like Uptober” himself — went against.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
Su mejor llamada del año, y la hizo sin nombrar un nivel. Hablando con Cointelegraph diez días después del mínimo de bitcoin en $58,566, con BTC en $64,111, dijo que Morgan Creek llevaba comprando semanalmente desde febrero contra un valor razonable de $105,000–$108,000 y que seguiría hasta octubre. BTC subió luego a $86,597 (+35.1%) y está en $84,009 (+31.0%), con una caída máxima de solo −2.9% por el camino.
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and only got back above his call price in September, peaking at $86,597 (+11.8%); now $84,009 (+8.5%).
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and after the vote recovered to $86,597 (+10.6%); now $84,009 (+7.3%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
Said on 11 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. He told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. From the anchor Bitcoin lost −16.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $84,009 (+20.0%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026; the 22 September and 2 October calls were checked on 7 October 2026. Those two are days old — near-term marks can flip.
Yusko no vende señales ni un curso. Dirige una firma, y el incentivo que conviene conocer es el simple: es un asignador de capital hablando de su propio libro en televisión, con un fondo y un objetivo a largo plazo detrás.
Su firma, fundada en 2004 — mandatos discrecionales y de asesoramiento gestionados con el modelo endowment. El optimismo público sobre bitcoin es inseparable de un negocio que asigna capital a él.
El brazo de activos digitales de 2018, que se asoció con Bitwise en un fondo indexado institucional; una entrevista de 2026 lo situó en $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
Dice que aproximadamente la mitad de su patrimonio está en bitcoin y activos ligados a bitcoin, frente al «five, eight, or ten percent» que recomienda a los demás — una revelación inusualmente franca, y una razón para descontar la intensidad del caso alcista.
Llama a los tokens de gobernanza sin derecho a comisiones — nombrando a Ethereum y Uniswap junto a Solana — «kind of scammy». Lea su marco bitcoin-contra-altcoins sabiendo dónde está su exposición.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · la regla de valoración en una línea“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · cómo la ejecuta en la práctica“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · la llamada que costó, cuatro meses antes de tiempo“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · aún cauto camino de su fecha del 5 de octubreCitas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; son opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.
Yusko no gestiona nada propio: ni canal, ni newsletter, ni grupo de pago. Aparece en programas de otros, y ahí se hizo cada una de las llamadas de arriba. Estos son los vídeos primarios detrás del dosier, verificados por título y fecha de subida:
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Path to $250K Already Started: Mark YuskoCoinage — the “durability of the trend” interview behind the 22 September call.22 Sep 2026
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV — la entrevista del «it's on sale» graficada arriba.16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph — la entrevista de acumulación semanal detrás de la llamada del 11 de julio.10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily — el suelo de $58,000–$63,000 y el objetivo de $600–700k para 2029, justo fuera de la ventana del gráfico.8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast — el marco de supresión vía futuros y burbuja de IA que repite todo el año.7 Jan 2026Mark W. Yusko (n. 1963) es fundador, CEO y director de inversiones de Morgan Creek Capital Management, que puso en marcha en 2004. Antes dirigió el endowment de la Universidad de Carolina del Norte en Chapel Hill al frente de la UNC Management Company (1998–2004) y fue senior investment director en la oficina de inversiones de Notre Dame (1993–1998). Fundó Morgan Creek Digital en 2018 y es uno de los alcistas institucionales de bitcoin más veteranos.
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. On 22 September he told Coinage the slow path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up by roughly a third and by more than a tenth. His 6 September call for a drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low also missed — the date passed with Bitcoin in the $80,000s. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
Valoración primero, y despacio. Estima cuánto vale la red de bitcoin usando la ley de Metcalfe, compra semanalmente siempre que el precio cotiza por debajo de ese valor razonable en vez de intentar cazar un mínimo, y superpone un ciclo de halving de cuatro años que fecha con precisión — 364 días desde el pico anterior, lo que sitúa el giro de este ciclo el 5 de octubre de 2026. Evita el apalancamiento y los niveles de corto plazo por completo, y desdeña los tokens de gobernanza que no dan derecho a las comisiones de red.
Yusko compra un número, no un gráfico: primero el valor razonable, compras semanales, ningún intento de cazar el mínimo exacto. ¿Cuánto se parece tu instinto? Mídelo de verdad con un Trader Passport.
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Análisis informativo y educativo basado estrictamente en materiales públicamente disponibles (cobertura fechada de terceros sobre sus entrevistas, enlazada en cada llamada). No es asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Mark? Enviar una corrección →
Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 7 October 2026
