@willywoo
The analyst who made “on-chain” a category. Woo doesn't read candles — he reads where money actually moves: investor flows, realised prices, the cost basis of recent buyers. Through most of 2026 that model kept him bearish while the rest of crypto looked for a bottom, and the price mostly agreed with him. Where it didn't, it didn't by a wide margin — his 46k–54k bottom zone never printed. In September, with long-term liquidity returning, he turned: on 16 September he put 90% odds on the bottom being in.
Sa madaling salita. Willy Woo is one of the original Bitcoin on-chain analysts — creator of the NVT ratio (“Bitcoin's P/E”), publisher of the Woobull chart library, and author of the weekly Bitcoin Vector Lite letter on Substack. His framework is deliberately not technical analysis: he models investor liquidity flows and compares price against on-chain cost bases (short-term-holder price, realised price, the CVDD floor) to say where the market is in its cycle. For most of 2026 that model made him one of the most consistently bearish major voices — and, for the levels that mattered, largely right: he called the March rally a bull trap and it was rejected exactly where he said. He is also on record with targets that never arrived, from $250k in 2021 to a 46k–54k bottom this year — a zone he effectively retired in September, when he called the bottom in at 90% odds.
Galing sa software si Woo papunta sa merkado — inilalarawan ng mga nailathalang profile ang isang programmer na isinilang sa Hong Kong at lumaki sa New Zealand, na nagtayo at nagbenta ng mga startup bago lumipat sa trading, at bumili ng unang bitcoin niya noong huling bahagi ng 2013. Hindi trade ang nagpasikat sa kanya kundi isang sukatan: noong 2017 pinasikat niya ang NVT ratio, ang network value na hinati sa transaction volume, na ibinalangkas bilang “Bitcoin's P/E ratio”. Naging ito ang unang malawakang ginagamit na on-chain valuation tool, at ang chart library na Woobull na lumago sa paligid nito ay isa pa ring karaniwang sanggunian. Ngayon ay naglalathala siya ng Bitcoin Vector Lite lingguhan sa Substack — “views into BTC's underlying structure through the lens of investor flows” — na may bayad na tier sa likod nito.
The record cuts both ways and the misses are large. On 29 April 2021 he told SALT Talks that Bitcoin “could reach $250K to $300K by the end of that cycle”, later stretching it to $300K–$400K on institutional inflows; Bitcoin topped near $69,000 that November. In September 2025, with BTC just off a $124,457 record, he suggested it “could race up to $140,000–$160,000” — while adding he couldn't tell. It never did. And on 11 January 2026 he posted “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026”: the bearish half aged well, the bullish half did not — Bitcoin fell from $89,212 on 29 January to $67,017 by 1 March, −25% straight through the window he was bullish on. That January post sits just outside the chart below; the seven calls that follow are all inside it.
Sources: x.com/willywoo (verified via X syndication) · woobull.com · willywoo.substack.com · Bitcoin.com News · Yahoo Finance
Daloy muna, presyo pangalawa. Kapital ang yunit ng pagsusuri ni Woo, hindi ang candle: gaano karaming tunay na pera ang pumapasok o lumalabas sa Bitcoin at paano ito ikinukumpara sa price momentum na dapat sana nitong suportahan. Ang paulit-ulit na kasangkapan ay mga on-chain cost basis — ang presyo ng short-term holder (ang break-even ng mga bumili sa nakaraang 155 araw), ang realised price, at ang CVDD floor — kasama ang sarili niyang mga modelo ng daloy ng investor at isang sulyap sa cross-asset risk (equity volatility, macro liquidity). Nagbibigay iyon sa kanya ng istruktura at pasensya: masasabi niyang “Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation” at seryoso siya roon. Simetriko ang kahinaan. Magaling ang flow models sa rehimen (bear o bull) at mahina sa laki — mas matibay ang mga direksyunal niyang tawag kaysa sa mga tiyak na numerong nakakabit dito.
Bearish on 2026 from January through the summer — his flow models had liquidity waning against price since January 2025. September is where that changed. On 6 September 2026 he flagged Bitcoin decoupling from equities as it did in 2015, and on 16 September he put the probability that the bottom is in at 90%, calling the market an early bull structure on returning long-term investor liquidity. His longer view is unchanged: Bitcoin in seven figures, but over a 12–16 year horizon.
Seven dated 2026 posts, charted against real price from the day he said them. Every quote below was pulled from X's own syndication endpoint or from the dated article that carries it — nothing is paraphrased. Woo trades in regimes and levels rather than one-line targets, so each card scores the specific claim he made: did the rejection happen where he said, did the level break, did the bottom print in the zone. He was right on the shape of the market in Feb–April and wrong on how deep it would go; the two newest cards, from September, are the first in this window pointing up — ending with his call that the bottom is in.
“This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.”
A three-part call, and all three parts happened. His 27 February post has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors at the first covered close, $65,824 on 2 March, and the percentages here run from there. Bitcoin consolidated sideways for roughly a month, rebounded into the mid-70s — $74,679 on 17 March, +13.5% — and was rejected there, back to $65,947 (+0.2%) by 30 March. It later fell as far as $58,566 (−11.0%), then ran +31.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+28.2%). The typo in “repreive” is his; we quote posts as written.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 27 February 2026↗ x.com“BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s which is the cost basis of short term investors.”
Resolved — on his terms, but late. The framing was right: he said the rally was a bull trap and “NOT me saying the bottom is in”, and from $67,340 BTC rallied, rolled over and cut to $58,566 (−13.0%) on 1 July. The target took far longer than the setup implied. The May rally stalled at $82,018 (+21.8%), and the mid-80s short-term-holder cost basis he named was only tested on 22 September, at $86,597 (+28.6%) — six and a half months after the post, with a deeper low in between. Both halves have now happened, so we move this card from open to played out; price holds $84,359 (+25.3%).
Source‘Bull Trap Forming’ — Willy Woo Says Bottom Not In for Bitcoin (Bitcoin.com News, 9 Mar 2026)↗ news.bitcoin.com“I’d agree with this picture with the rejection at STH price which is 84k and dropping each day. Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation.”
He named the level and the duration. BTC was $71,304; it was rejected immediately, down to $65,947 (−7.5%) in four days, and the “mid bear consolidation” ran for months rather than weeks. Through that whole stretch it never reached the 84k short-term-holder line he flagged as the ceiling — the summer high was $82,018 (+15.0%) on 11 May — before sliding to $58,566 (−17.9%) on 1 July. Bitcoin only closed above 84k on 22 September, six months later; it ran +21.4% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+18.3%). The call was about the spring, and on that horizon the level held.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 26 March 2026↗ x.com“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.”
His most specific number, and the one that has gone wrong. From $65,947 he was pointing 18–30% lower, with the CVDD floor model at 45.5k. Bitcoin never got there. The deepest close since is $58,566 on 1 July, −11.2% from his post and 8.5% above the top of his zone — and price has since run +31.3% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+27.9%). A fresh leg down could still validate it, but on 16 September Woo himself put 90% odds on the bottom already being in (last card below), which leaves this zone with few defenders.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 30 March 2026↗ x.com“The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.”
A conditional call, and the condition failed the way he warned it might. BTC was $77,367. It did break 79k — the 30% branch — peaking at $82,018 (+6.0%) on 11 May. But he had added that a structural bottom only becomes likely “if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65K and not break down”, and that “the next 3-6 weeks will be telling”. It broke down: nine weeks later Bitcoin closed at $58,566, −24.3%. No structural bottom in that window, exactly as he framed it. Price has since run +11.9% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+9.0%).
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 28 April 2026↗ x.com“It's almost been a decade since the last time this happened... The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).”
The first constructive post of the whole window. BTC closed at $79,822, near the top of the range it broke into in late August — up from $69,291 on 20 August. Read the claim precisely: it is not a price target but a regime analogue, equities and Bitcoin pulling apart the way they did in 2015, which he labels the prelude to the 2017 bull market. Price dipped to $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September, then ran +8.5% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+5.7%). That leans his way, but three weeks cannot settle a claim about a multi-year decoupling. It also sits awkwardly beside his own 46k–54k bottom call above, and we will not reconcile the two for him. Open until price picks a side for longer.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 6 September 2026↗ x.com“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.”
The turn, stated as a number. BTC closed at $75,590 that day, then ran +14.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+11.6%). Read the claim precisely: it is not that $75k was the low, but that the cycle bottom is already behind the market — on this chart that is $58,566 on 1 July, 8.5% above the top of the 46k–54k zone he pointed to in March, which this post quietly retires. He gave no time frame and no invalidation level. As of 27 September price agrees with him; a close back under the July low would settle it against him. Open.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 16 September 2026↗ x.comAng mga resulta ay pagbasa namin sa kanyang sinabing paninindigan laban sa tunay na presyo ng CoinGecko, hindi ang sarili niyang iskor. Ang mga presyo ay closes; ang “pinakamababa pagkatapos” ay ang pinakamababang close sa pagitan ng tawag at ngayon. Maaaring magbago ang mga bukas na marka habang natatapos ang siklo — tiyak lamang na mali ang isang bottom-zone call kapag tiyak nang tapos ang siklo.
Nagbebenta si Woo ng pananaliksik, hindi signals o token — mas malinis na istruktura kaysa sa karamihan sa direktoryong ito. Gumagawa pa rin ito ng insentibong dapat pangalanan: pinakamahalaga ang bayad na newsletter tungkol sa pagtukoy ng ilalim ng siklo habang nasa unahan pa ang ilalim.
Libre ang Bitcoin Vector Lite sa Substack na may bayad na tier; nasa likod nito ang mas malalim na flow models. Ang mga subscription ang nakikitang negosyo.
Libre na nang maraming taon ang woobull.com at ang NVT ratio — gumagana ang mga ito bilang tuktok ng funnel at bilang dahilan kung bakit siya sinisipi.
Ito ang pagsisiwalat na mahalaga. Noong Mayo 2023 inanunsyo ng Syz Group ang SyzCrest Digital Uncorrelated, isang crypto hedge fund na suportado ng bangko at inilunsad kasama si Woo at ang CMCC Global, na naglalarawan sa kanya bilang managing partner ng CMCC Global & Crest Fund, tagapayo ng Ama fund at general partner sa S2F Fund; nakalista rin sa mga nailathalang profile ang mga seed-stage na pamumuhunan sa crypto. Galing sa balita ng 2023 ang mga papel na iyon at hindi namin nakumpirma kung alin ang kasalukuyan pa. Hindi isinisiwalat ang mga posisyon sa bawat post, kaya ituring ang anumang tiyak na tawag bilang posibleng kaayon ng isang portfolio na hindi mo nakikita.
“BTC MOVES TO A 6-8 YEAR CYCLE? BTC has been locked into the gravity of a 4 year orbit... it was subject to strong internal forces of its halvening... a clockwork 4yr supply rate shock. Meanwhile TradFi is on a 6-8 year short term debt cycle.”
03 Sep 2026 · ang buong balangkas niya sa isang post“3 things happen at the end of bear markets. 1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles). 2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price 3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)”
05 Apr 2026 · ang mahabang horizon sa ilalim ng bearish na taon“I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.”
05 Apr 2026 · kalahating tama — palya ng 25% ang bullish na kalahati“I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.”
11 Jan 2026 · half right — the bullish half missed by 25%Mga sipi mula sa kanyang sariling pampublikong mga video; mga pahayag na pananaw, hindi mga rekomendasyon.
Naglalathala si Woo sa sulat, hindi sa kamera — mga Woobull chart at ang lingguhang Bitcoin Vector Lite. Ang video record niya ay mga podcast ng iba. Mga kinatawang paglabas:
Bitcoin Needs To Adapt Now | With Willy WooLook Into Bitcoin — naitala ilang araw matapos ang tawag sa ilalim na 46k–54k sa itaas.10 Apr 2026
The Bull Market, Institutional Adoption & 2026 Recession? | Willy WooWhat Bitcoin Did — kung saan unang binalangkas niya ang 2026 bilang tunay na pagsubok ng siklo.26 Aug 2025
Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possibleLess Noise More Signal — ang kaso ng pagbagsak, anim na buwan bago niya ito kailanganin.25 Sep 2025
Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The EndgameThe Wolf Of All Streets — kasama si Scott Melker, na nasa direktoryong ito rin ang dosyer.14 Sep 2025Isang on-chain analyst ng Bitcoin, pinakakilala sa pagpapasikat ng NVT ratio — network value na hinati sa transaction volume, ibinalangkas bilang “Bitcoin's P/E ratio” — at sa chart library na Woobull. Isinusulat niya ang lingguhang Bitcoin Vector Lite sa Substack at may humigit-kumulang 1.1M na tagasubaybay sa X, kung saan siya nagpo-post na ngayon bilang @willywoo (dating @woonomic).
For most of 2026 he was bearish: his on-chain models pointed to a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, with the CVDD floor near $45,500 when he said it in March. That zone has not printed — Bitcoin's lowest close since was $58,566 on 1 July. On 16 September 2026 he reversed, putting the probability that the bottom is in at 90% and calling the market an early bull structure. Separately, he has floated a much longer-horizon view of Bitcoin trading sideways for 8–12 years before a move to seven figures.
Halo-halo, at pare-pareho ang padron: malakas sa direksyon, mahina sa laki. Sa window na ito eksaktong natupad ang tawag niya sa pagtanggi noong Pebrero at ang resistance level niya noong Marso, at pinatunayan ng 24% na pagbagsak ang pagbasa niya noong Abril na wala pa sa lugar ang mga piraso para sa isang ilalim. Ngunit hindi kailanman dumating ang bottom zone niyang $46k–$54k, palya ng mga apat na beses ang target niyang $250k–$300k noong 2021, at ang post niya noong Enero 2026 — “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026” — ay naghatid sa bullish na kalahati diretso sa 25% na pagbagsak.
Ang pinakakilalang sukatan ni Woo: ang network value ng Bitcoin (market cap) na hinati sa halagang USD na nailipat on-chain. Ang mataas na basa ay nagpapahiwatig na nauna na ang presyo sa ekonomikong paggamit ng network; ang mababa ay kabaligtaran. Ipinakilala niya ito bilang on-chain na katumbas ng price-to-earnings ratio ng isang stock, at binuksan nito ang pinto sa buong larangan ng on-chain analytics.
Binabalewala ni Woo ang candle at sinusundan ang pera — mga daloy, cost basis, at ang pasensyang tiisin ang buwan-buwang pagkaipit. Gaano kalapit ang instinct mo? Sukatin nang totoo gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon alamin kung alin ang talagang kumikita. Subukin ang iyong edge sa live na datos ng merkado — walang kapital na nakataya — sa libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may tunay na premyo.
Impormatibo at edukasyonal na pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa pampublikong materyal — ang sarili niyang may-petsang mga post sa X (kinuhang salita-por-salita mula sa pampublikong syndication endpoint ng X) at may-petsang balita mula sa mga third party, naka-link sa bawat tawag. Hindi ito payo sa pananalapi o pamumuhunan. Tinatayang mga numero ang lahat at patuloy na nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Willy? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 27 September 2026
