@nsquaredvalue
Isang fund manager sa Houston na tinitingnan ang Bitcoin bilang isang network. Isinulat niya ang “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value”, at ginagawang tsansa ng kanyang X feed ang kasaysayan ng presyo: inaasahang range, seasonal na tuktok, target ayon sa petsa. Sinusuri ng pahinang ito ang mga numerong iyon laban sa presyo.
Sa madaling salita. Timothy Peterson is a CFA and CAIA charterholder and the founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors (about 33K followers on X). He is best known for the paper “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value”, and he now sells The Bitcoin Investment Handbook and yearly outlook reports. On this page: eight dated calls on Bitcoin and Ethereum from June to October 2026. One played out, four are still open, and three went against.
Ayon sa sariling site ni Peterson, itinatag niya ang Cane Island Alternative Advisors at dati siyang CFO ng isang financial firm na nakabase sa Houston, kung saan kasama siyang nag-manage ng isang option-hedged equity strategy. Isinulat niya ang librong “Performance Measurement for Alternative Investments” (Risk Books, 2015), nagsisilbing Chapter Executive ng Houston CAIA chapter, at may Master of Science in Finance at BA in Economics mula sa University of Colorado.
Ang pinakakilala niyang gawa ay ang papel na “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value”, na tinataya ang halaga ng Bitcoin batay sa laki ng user network nito. Ang X bio niya ay “Bitcoin Pathfinder | Network Economist | CFA, CAIA” at binabanggit ang papel na iyon at ang mas bago niyang libro, The Bitcoin Investment Handbook.
Karamihan ng post ay statistics: paano kumilos ang Bitcoin pagkatapos ng mga katulad na drawdown, sa parehong linggo ng mga nakaraang taon, o sa parehong layo mula sa 200-day average nito. Ang mga call sa pahinang ito ay ang mga post na ginagawang range, target o direksyon para sa BTC o ETH ang mga statistics na iyon. Marami sa mga ito ay nagtatapos sa promo ng BluRoo.ai, isang analysis tool na ginagawa niya.
Sources: x.com/nsquaredvalue · cane-island.digital (about, handbook)
Kasaysayan bilang probabilidad. Tinitingnan ni Peterson kung ano ang ginawa ng Bitcoin sa mga nakaraang yugto na kahawig ng ngayon — parehong drawdown, parehong petsa sa kalendaryo, parehong trend — at ipino-post ang tsansa, isang inaasahang range o isang target. Malapad at pangmatagalan ang mga range; sa mga panandaliang seasonal na call siya pinakamalinaw na nagkamali.
Bullish on the long view, less so on the next few months. On 8 Oct 2026 he expected a new all-time high within 90 days; on 15 Oct he wrote that “a new ATH in 90 days may not happen.”
Eight dated calls from Peterson's own posts on X, charted against real CoinGecko price. Each quote is copied from the post as published and was re-fetched live. Posts that only list historical statistics are not charted; we took the ones that name a range, a target or a direction for BTC or ETH.
“I believe Bitcoin will make a new ATH within 90 days, and here's why.”
He based it on history: when Bitcoin climbed from −50% below its all-time high back to −30%, it made a new high within 75 days: “Every time.” BTC was $83,282 on our chart; the post went up at 17:28 UTC, and the next daily point was $81,686. The best close since is $83,691 (+0.5%) on 12 Oct, and BTC is $81,512 now (−2.1%). A week later, on 15 Oct, he wrote that “a new ATH in 90 days may not happen” because the call “was predicated on Bitcoin reaching $88k, or -30% from its ATH,” which it has not done. He withdrew it himself, so we count it as gone against.
𝕏 Post“I believe Bitcoin will make a new ATH within 90 days” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“The magnitude is variable but at current levels, it implies price -> $120-140k.”
He called mempool transaction count the best Bitcoin timing signal he has found, one that “leads going up and it leads going down.” No date was given for the target. BTC was $83,640. It rose to $86,490 (+3.4%) on 5 Oct and is $81,512 now (−2.5%). It would need to rise +47.2% from here to reach $120K. Still open.
𝕏 Post“I have never found a better Bitcoin timing signal than mempool transaction count.” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin -> 150k by January”
The line closes a post showing a design test for his BluRoo.ai tool; the attached chart, “BTC linked analog path, next 180 days”, puts its central path near $150K in January 2027. BTC was $86,183 on our chart. He posted at 21:02 UTC, and the next daily point was $84,382. The best close since is $86,490 (+0.4%) on 5 Oct, and BTC is $81,512 now (−5.4%). It would need to rise +84.0% to reach $150K. The deadline is January. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin -> 150k by January” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“History says that today (Sept 19th) is the peak of the September rally”
Idinagdag ng post na ang Bitcoin ay “nagsara nang mas mababa 90% ng panahon sa nakaraang anim na taon.” Ang BTC ay $80,874. Hindi ito nagsara nang mas mababa ulit: makalipas ang tatlong araw nagsara ito sa $86,597 (+7.1%), at $81,512 ito ngayon (+0.8%). Sumalungat.
𝕏 Post“History says that today (Sept 19th) is the peak” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin: probably higher in the next 30 days”
Ang BTC ay $77,712. Makalipas ang tatlumpung araw, noong 23 Set, nagsara ito sa $86,183 (+10.9%). Ang pinakamababang close sa pagitan ay $75,590 (−2.7%) noong 16 Set, at $81,512 ang BTC ngayon (+4.9%). Nagkatotoo.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin: probably higher in the next 30 days” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“Ethereum could be going to $1400 or even $1100.”
Ang ETH ay $1,725. Bumaba ito sa $1,566 (−9.2%) noong 26 Hun, pero hindi kailanman nagsara malapit sa $1,400. Pagkatapos ay umakyat ito sa $2,775 (+60.9%) noong 22 Set at $2,426 na ngayon (+40.6%). Sumalungat.
𝕏 Post“Ethereum could be going to $1400 or even $1100.” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“If $59k was the bottom, then $118k is a realistic target within a year.”
Ang BTC ay $61,480. Nasubok ang $59K na sahig: nagsara ang BTC sa $58,566 (−4.7%) noong 1 Hul, bahagya sa ilalim nito, saka tumaas. Umabot ito sa $86,597 (+40.9%) noong 22 Set at $81,512 ngayon (+32.6%). May panahon ang $118K na target hanggang Hunyo 2027. Bukas pa.
𝕏 Post“Even “bad” Bitcoin recoveries are 2x.” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“The expected price range for January 2027 is $66k - $107k (middle 50% interquartile).”
Ang BTC ay $63,811, sa ilalim ng range. Bumaba pa ito sa $58,566 (−8.2%) noong 1 Hul, saka tumaas sa $86,597 (+35.7%) noong 22 Set. $81,512 ito ngayon (+27.7%), nasa loob ng $66K–$107K na range. Ang call ay para sa Enero 2027. Bukas pa.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is down 50% in 250 days. What happens next?” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of what each post said, measured against real CoinGecko daily closes — not Peterson's own scoring. Three of the calls run to January 2027 or June 2027, so they stay open until then, and the $120K–$140K call has no date. The “$1,000 in” line under each chart is a buy-and-hold figure from the day of the call, even for the two bearish calls, where the buy-and-hold figure went up.
Nagpapatakbo si Peterson ng advisory firm at direktang nagbebenta ng kanyang research. Regular na ina-advertise ng kanyang mga post sa X ang libro, ang taunang outlook report at ang kanyang analysis tool.
Isang 976-pahinang libro na ibinebenta sa cane-island.digital bilang may-pirma at may-numerong kopya; sinasabi ng site na ito ay “ilalista sa Amazon sa halagang $275” at binabayaran ang mga mamimili ng “$20 in Bitcoin” sa bawat referral.
Taunang outlook (“Bitcoin 2027”, “Bitcoin 2026”) at ang pag-aaral na “Determinants of Bitcoin's Performance”, ibinebenta nang isa-isa o bilang bundle — “tatlong makapangyarihang Bitcoin research resource sa isang bundle sa halagang $279” — kasama ang subscription sa research platform ng Cane Island.
Marami sa mga naka-chart na post ang nagtatapos sa “bluroo ai”, isang analysis tool na ginagawa niya; noong 23 Set 2026 isinulat niya na gagawin niya itong “ang pinakakahanga-hangang analysis tool na walang kapantay o eksepsiyon.”
Ang firm na itinatag niya; inilalarawan ng site ang gawain nito bilang insights at edukasyon para sa mga financial advisor at investment manager.
“Bitcoin: probably higher in the next 30 days”
24 Aug 2026 · Tumaas ang BTC nang 10.9% sa 30 araw na iyon“Ethereum could be going to $1400 or even $1100.”
23 Jun 2026 · Bumaba ang ETH hanggang $1,566 at tumaas nang 60.9%“History says that today (Sept 19th) is the peak of the September rally”
19 Sep 2026 · Tumaas ang BTC nang 7.1% sa loob ng tatlong arawMga sipi na kinopya mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong sources; mga pananaw niya, hindi rekomendasyon.
Walang video library na mali-link dito. Ang mga pampublikong call ni Peterson ay mga post sa X, at bawat naka-chart na call ay naka-link sa mismong post.
Isang CFA at CAIA charterholder mula sa Houston area na nagtatag ng Cane Island Alternative Advisors. Isinulat niya ang papel na “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value” at ang The Bitcoin Investment Handbook, at nagpo-post sa X bilang @nsquaredvalue.
On 5 Jun 2026 he put the expected range for January 2027 at $66K–$107K. On 11 Jun he said that if $59K was the bottom, $118K is a realistic target within a year. On 23 Sep he wrote “Bitcoin -> 150k by January”, and on 30 Sep that mempool activity implies $120K–$140K. On 8 Oct he expected a new all-time high within 90 days, then wrote on 15 Oct that it “may not happen.”
Of eight dated BTC and ETH calls from June to October 2026: one played out (higher in 30 days from 24 Aug), four are still open (the January 2027 range, the $118K target, $150K by January and $120K–$140K), and three went against (ETH to $1,400, the 19 Sep “peak”, and the 8 Oct new-high call he withdrew). Treat it as a documented opinion, not advice.
Sa pamamagitan ng kanyang firm, ang Cane Island Alternative Advisors, at sa pagbebenta ng The Bitcoin Investment Handbook, taunang outlook report at research subscription. Gumagawa rin siya ng analysis tool, ang BluRoo.ai, na pino-promote ng maraming post.
Ginagawang tsansa at range ni Peterson ang kasaysayan ng Bitcoin. Gaano kalapit ang iyong instinct — sukatin ito nang totoo gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon, gamitin ang iyong diskarte. Subukan ang iyong edge sa live na market data — walang kapital na nakataya — sa isang libreng BuyCrypt tournament na may totoong premyo.
Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na batay sa mga pampublikong materyal (sariling may-petsang X post ni Timothy Peterson at ang kanyang website, naka-link sa pahina). Hindi ito payong pinansyal o pang-investment. Tinatayang halaga lamang ang mga numero at palaging nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Timothy? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 17 October 2026
