@MerlijnTrader
Isang Dutch chart account na nagpo-post ng isang ideya sa bawat pagkakataon, sa malalaking titik at may isang naka-annotate na chart: ang taong ito ay tumutugma sa 2018 / 2022 / 2017, at ito ang level na magpapasya. Mabilis maglabas, napakadaling sundan, at — hindi karaniwan sa ganitong uri — halos laging may kasamang numero na pwedeng i-tsek mamaya. Kaya tiningnan namin.
Sa madaling salita. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Nagpo-post si Merlijn bilang @MerlijnTrader sa mahigit-kumulang 380,000 follower, may mas maliit na YouTube channel (16.2K subscriber, aktibo mula Hunyo 2021, ~1.1M panoorin sa kabuuan) na muling ikinukuwento ang parehong pang-araw-araw na tesis sa video. May affiliation badge para sa @cryptorover ang X account niya — ang business label ng Crypto Rover — kaya nasa loob ng parehong media operation ang dalawang account, hindi malayang tinig na nagkataong sumasang-ayon. Malinaw ang sinasabi ng kanyang YouTube channel tungkol sa sariling proyekto: “The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, dokumentado nang live.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
Technical analysis na fractal ang pinakauna. Analohiya ang makina: hanapin ang nakaraang taon na kamukha ng chart ngayon (2017, 2018, 2022), ipagpalagay na uulitin ang istraktura, at pangalanan ang level na magpapatunay nito. Sa paligid nito ay ginagamit niya ang mga Wyckoff accumulation phase (spring, mark-up), mga pagkrus ng moving average, Stochastic RSI, isang dashboard ng ~30 cycle peak indicator, at mga on-chain o macro na headline (validator exit queue, inaasahang rate ng Fed, mga ETF filing) bilang kumpirmasyon. Ang lakas nito ay masusuri — nangangako siya ng mga numero gaya ng “$60K is the decision” o “DCA zone $48–59K”. Ang kahinaan ay ang kabilang mukha ng parehong pangako: kapag hindi umulit ang katulad, ang konklusyon ay hindi lamang maaga kundi baligtad, at bihirang may laki ng posisyon o presyo ng pag-invalidate ang kanyang mga post para sa mambabasa.
Estruktural na bullish — ang paulit-ulit na konklusyon ay nangyari na ang ilalim at ibinenta iyon ng karamihan. Ang mga bearish na post sa sample na ito ay panandalian at may kondisyon; ang mga bullish ang tesis.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under ang binanggit na level. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Ito ang bahagi ng file na pinakamahalaga sa isang chart account na maraming ilalabas: ang pampublikong negosyo ni Merlijn ay atensyon at promosyon, ibinebenta mula sa parehong account na naglalabas ng analisis. Walang itinatago rito — nasa sariling link page niya lahat — ngunit dapat itong nakatabi sa mga chart.
Nagbebenta ang pampublikong link page niya ng “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” at nag-iimbita ng DM “for Business/Partnerships”. Kaya maaaring bumili ng abot ang mga proyekto mula sa parehong account na naglalabas ng market analysis. Ipagpalagay na ang anumang token o platform na pinangalanan sa isang post ay posibleng komersyal na relasyon maliban kung sabihin niyang hindi.
Ibinibenta rin ng parehong page ang sarili niya bilang consultant at business coach na may alok na “Book a Strategy Call” — ang audience ay ginagawang bayarin, at pinapaburan nito ang dami ng post at kumpiyansa, hindi ang pag-iingat.
May affiliation badge para sa @cryptorover ang X account niya. Ang dalawang account mula sa isang operasyon na sumasang-ayon sa isa't isa ay hindi dalawang malayang kumpirmasyon — bilangin isang beses, hindi dalawa.
Sinasabi ng kanyang YouTube channel na ang proyekto ay “turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, dokumentado nang live. Pagbubunyag iyon, hindi conflict — pero nangangahulugan din iyon ng estruktural na bullish na Bitcoin book sa likod ng estruktural na bullish na mga Bitcoin post.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · ang road-map na mali sa dalawang bahagi“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · apat na araw bago ang tunay na ilalim ng ETH“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · ang death-cross na linya na nabasag nang walang crashMga sipi mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagkunan; mga pananaw na binanggit, hindi rekomendasyon.
Halos araw-araw siyang naglalabas ng Bitcoin video sa channel na mas maliit kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng kanyang following sa X. Mga bagong upload, may petsa mula sa feed ng channel:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge MistakePanandaliang pagbaba, pangmatagalang bullish — ang eksaktong tindig na ipinlot ng dossier na ito.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes NextAng 2022 fractal na nagpapatakbo sa halos lahat ng 2026 call niya.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY BegunAng bullish na tesis sa cycle, sinabi nang walang level.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson HoleBalangkas na macro-event bago ang rally ng Agosto.28 Aug 2026Isang Dutch na crypto chart analyst na nagpo-post bilang @MerlijnTrader sa mahigit-kumulang 380,000 follower sa X, may mas maliit na YouTube channel (16.2K subscriber). Hindi pampubliko ang apelyido niya. Kilala siya sa mga post na malalaking titik na may isang chart lamang, na inihahambing ang kasalukuyang merkado sa isang nakaraang taon — 2017, 2018, 2022 — at pinapangalanan ang isang level na magpapasya sa resulta.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Hayagan siyang nagbebenta ng promosyon: nakalista sa pampublikong link page niya ang “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”, nag-iimbita ng DM para sa negosyo at partnership, at may bayad na strategy call. May affiliation badge din para sa @cryptorover ang X account niya. Ipagpalagay na ang isang pinangalanang proyekto ay maaaring komersyal na relasyon maliban kung sinabing hindi.
Analohiyang fractal kasama ang isang level ng desisyon. Ipinapatong niya ang istraktura ng chart ng nakaraang taon sa kasalukuyan — Wyckoff accumulation, golden/death cross, Stochastic RSI, dashboard ng ~30 cycle peak signal — pagkatapos ay nangangako ng numero gaya ng “$60K is the decision” o “DCA zone $48–59K”. Dahil doon madali siyang masuri; nangangahulugan rin iyon na kapag hindi tumama ang katulad, baligtad ang konklusyon at hindi lamang maaga.
Sa analohiya nagta-trade si Merlijn: hanapin ang taong kinokopya ng chart na ito, tapos ipagtanggol ang isang level. Gaano kalapit ang instinct mo — sukatin ito nang totohanan sa Trader Passport.
Alinman doon, ang tanging matapat na pagsusulit ay ang buhay na pagsusulit. Patakbuhin ang pagbasa mo sa tunay na market data — walang kapital na nakataya — sa isang libreng BuyCrypt tournament na may tunay na premyo.
Analisis na pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyon, ganap na binuo mula sa pampublikong materyal: ang sarili niyang may-petsang X post, nakuhang tumpak kasama ang timestamp at naka-link sa bawat call, kasama ang kanyang pampublikong channel at link page. Hindi ito payo sa pananalapi o pamumuhunan. Tinatayang mga numero at tuloy-tuloy na nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Merlijn? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 29 September 2026
