@MarkYusko
Ang endowment manager na nagsasalita sa patas na halaga, hindi sa price target. Pinapadaan ni Yusko ang bitcoin sa isang network-value model, bumibili kapag sinabi ng modelo na mura ito, at nilalagyan ng petsa ang cycle — kaya siya ay hindi pangkaraniwang nasusuri, at nasusuri rin ang mga pagkakamali niya.
Sa madaling salita. Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn — a date that came and went with no new low. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
Si Yusko (isinilang 1963, lumaki sa Seattle) ay may BS mula sa Notre Dame at MBA mula sa University of Chicago. Pumasok siya sa investment office ng Notre Dame bilang assistant investment officer noong Oktubre 1993 at naging senior investment director doon hanggang 1998, saka itinatag at pinamunuan ang UNC Management Company, ang investment office ng endowment ng University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, mula 1998 hanggang 2004. Dinala niya sa dalawa ang „endowment model“ na mabigat sa alternatibong asset. Noong 2004 itinatag niya ang Morgan Creek Capital Management, at noong 2018 ang Morgan Creek Digital, na nakipagsosyo sa Bitwise para ilunsad ang isang institutional Digital Asset Index Fund. Inilarawan ng isang panayam noong 2026 ang digital arm bilang namamahala ng $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
Hindi pantay-pantay na maganda ang rekord, at sinasabi iyon ng dossier: ang Endowment Fund, ang pakikipagsosyo niya sa Salient Partners, ay lumaki hanggang humigit-kumulang $3.5 billion bago siya inalis dito noong Enero 2013 dahil sa problema sa performance. Sa crypto matagal na ang paniniwala niya — ang pangalan niya sa X, „Two Point One Quadrillion“, ay ang bilang ng satoshi na umiiral — gayundin ang pangmatagalang numero niya: sa panayam noong 15 Pebrero 2026 sinabi niyang siya ay „pretty comfortable“ na aabot ang bitcoin sa $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029. Nasa parehong panayam ang tawag na hindi kayang i-chart ng dossier na ito ngunit hindi itatago: inilagay niya ang ilalim ng cycle na ito sa $58,000–$63,000 na darating sa paligid ng 30 Setyembre–1 Oktubre 2026. Halos perpekto ang level — ang pinakamababa ng bitcoin sa ngayon ay $58,566 — ngunit lumabas ito noong 1 Hulyo, tatlong buwang maaga, at sa mga buwan sa pagitan ay sinasabi niya sa mga tao na tapos na ang mababa.
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
Valuation muna, macro sa orasan ng endowment. Hindi gumuguhit ng trendline si Yusko. Tinatanong niya kung magkano ang halaga ng isang network — batas ni Metcalfe na ipinapataw sa mga user at transaksyon ng bitcoin, sa pamamagitan ng modelo ni Tim Peterson — at bumibili lingguhan kapag nasa ilalim ng numerong iyon ang presyo, nang hindi sinusubukang hulaan ang araw. Nakapaligid dito ang top-down na pagbasa sa liquidity, panghihina ng fiat, posisyon sa futures market, at ang apat na taong halving cycle na itinuturing niyang kalendaryong tumpak sa 364 araw mula sa nakaraang taluktok. Ang lakas: patuloy siyang bumibili sa gitna ng pagbagsak na kinatatakutan ng lahat. Ang kahinaan ay ang parehong ugali: ang modelong nagsasabing „mura“ sa $70,000 ay magsasabi ring „mura“ sa $60,000, at paulit-ulit na maaga ang mga hula niya sa timing ng cycle.
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a price in the $80,000s, a $600–700k 2029 target). He spent early September calling the tape “bear market action” and pointing at a 5 October low, then turned: on 22 September he said the uptrend to $125,000 and $250,000 had begun, and on 2 October he posted “Looking Like Uptober”. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His 6 September warning — a possible drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low — did not. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because it predates the price window.
“Looking Like Uptober… 🧡🚀”
Three days before his own 5 October cycle-low date, he quote-posted Morgan Creek's Digital Currents episode — “‘Uptober’ or head fake?” — and answered it: Uptober. A day earlier he had hedged the same idea (“when everyone starts taking about something, it usually doesn’t happen”). Posted at 20:34 UTC, so the chart's 2 October point of $84,842 is that day's midnight price; the next point, $84,506, was barely different. Since then BTC has topped at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and sits at $84,009 (−1.0%). Five days in — open.
𝕏 Post“Looking Like Uptober…” — @MarkYusko on X↗ x.com“So, I think this will be not like straight up to 125 and straight up to 250, but I do think the durability of the trend will be better.”
Talking to Coinage's Zack Guzman (uploaded 22 September), he said Bitcoin had moved from distribution into accumulation and that the path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun — slowly, not vertically. It is a flip from his 6 September “not out of the woods” call, made before his own 5 October date. He made it on the best close of the whole rebound: $86,597, which BTC has not bettered since. Low since $83,479 (−3.6%), now $84,009 (−3.0%). A long-horizon thesis two weeks old — open.
SourceWhy the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. It worked: BTC has not closed lower since, ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+11.1%). He called it on the exact low of the September dip.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. A month later the exit is offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $122 (+18.3%) and sits at $118 (+14.5%). Still far too early to score a multi-year exit made on governance grounds — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. His date has now passed and the drop never came. The worst close was $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September; BTC then ran to $86,597 (+8.5%), closed $86,490 on 5 October itself and sits at $84,009 (+5.2%). By 2 October he was posting “Looking Like Uptober” himself — went against.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
Ang pinakamagaling niyang tawag ngayong taon, at ginawa niya nang hindi nagbabanggit ng level. Sa pakikipag-usap sa Cointelegraph sampung araw matapos ang pinakamababang $58,566 ng bitcoin, habang nasa $64,111 ang BTC, sinabi niyang bumibili ang Morgan Creek lingguhan mula Pebrero laban sa patas na halagang $105,000–$108,000 at magpapatuloy hanggang Oktubre. Umakyat ang BTC sa $86,597 (+35.1%) at nasa $84,009 (+31.0%), na ang pinakamalalim na pagbaba sa daan ay −2.9% lamang.
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and only got back above his call price in September, peaking at $86,597 (+11.8%); now $84,009 (+8.5%).
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and after the vote recovered to $86,597 (+10.6%); now $84,009 (+7.3%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
Said on 11 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. He told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. From the anchor Bitcoin lost −16.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $84,009 (+20.0%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026; the 22 September and 2 October calls were checked on 7 October 2026. Those two are days old — near-term marks can flip.
Hindi nagbebenta ng signals o kurso si Yusko. Namamahala siya ng isang firm, at simple lang ang insentibong dapat malaman: isa siyang allocator na nagsasalita tungkol sa sariling posisyon sa telebisyon, may pondo at pangmatagalang target sa likod niya.
Ang firm niya, itinatag 2004 — mga discretionary at advisory mandate na pinapatakbo sa endowment model. Hindi maihihiwalay ang pampublikong pagiging bullish sa bitcoin sa isang negosyong naglalaan dito.
Ang digital-asset arm noong 2018, na nakipagsosyo sa Bitwise sa isang institutional index fund; inilagay ito ng panayam noong 2026 sa $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
Sabi niya, humigit-kumulang kalahati ng yaman niya ay nasa bitcoin at mga kaugnay na asset, laban sa „five, eight, or ten percent“ na inirerekomenda niya sa iba — isang pambihirang prangkang pagbubunyag, at dahilan para bawasan ang timbang ng tindi ng bullish na argumento.
Tinatawag niyang „kind of scammy“ ang mga governance token na walang karapatan sa bayarin ng network — binabanggit ang Ethereum at Uniswap katabi ng Solana. Basahin ang balangkas niyang bitcoin-laban-sa-altcoin habang alam kung nasaan ang exposure niya.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · ang panuntunan sa valuation sa isang linya“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · kung paano niya ito talaga isinasagawa“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · ang tawag na nagkahalaga, apat na buwang maaga“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · maingat pa rin papunta sa petsa niyang 5 OktubreMga sipi mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagkunan; mga pananaw na binanggit, hindi rekomendasyon.
Walang sariling plataporma si Yusko — walang channel, walang newsletter, walang bayad na grupo. Sumasama siya sa palabas ng iba, at doon binitawan ang bawat tawag sa itaas. Ito ang mga pangunahing video sa likod ng dossier, na-verify ang pamagat at petsa ng pag-upload:
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Path to $250K Already Started: Mark YuskoCoinage — the “durability of the trend” interview behind the 22 September call.22 Sep 2026
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV — ang panayam na „it's on sale“ na iniplot sa itaas.16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph — ang panayam tungkol sa lingguhang akumulasyon sa likod ng tawag noong 11 Hulyo.10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily — ang ilalim na $58,000–$63,000 at target na $600–700k para sa 2029, bahagyang labas sa window ng chart.8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast — ang balangkas ng pagpigil sa presyo sa pamamagitan ng futures at ng AI bubble na inuulit niya buong taon.7 Jan 2026Si Mark W. Yusko (isinilang 1963) ay founder, CEO at chief investment officer ng Morgan Creek Capital Management, na sinimulan niya noong 2004. Dati niyang pinamahalaan ang endowment ng University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill bilang pinuno ng UNC Management Company (1998–2004) at naging senior investment director sa investment office ng Notre Dame (1993–1998). Itinatag niya ang Morgan Creek Digital noong 2018 at isa siya sa pinakamatagal nang institutional bitcoin bull.
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. On 22 September he told Coinage the slow path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up by roughly a third and by more than a tenth. His 6 September call for a drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low also missed — the date passed with Bitcoin in the $80,000s. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
Valuation muna, at mabagal. Tinatantiya niya kung magkano ang halaga ng network ng bitcoin gamit ang batas ni Metcalfe, bumibili lingguhan sa tuwing nasa ilalim ng patas na halagang iyon ang presyo sa halip na tiyempuhan ang ilalim, at nilalagyan ito ng apat na taong halving cycle na tumpak niyang pinepetsahan — 364 araw mula sa nakaraang taluktok, na naglalagay sa pagliko ng cycle na ito sa 5 Oktubre 2026. Iniiwasan niya nang tuluyan ang leverage at mga maikling-panahong level, at minamaliit ang mga governance token na walang karapatan sa bayarin ng network.
Numero ang binibili ni Yusko, hindi chart: patas na halaga muna, lingguhang pagbili, walang pagtatangkang hulihin ang eksaktong ilalim. Gaano kalapit ang instinct mo — sukatin ito nang totoo gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon, gamitin ang iyong paraan. Subukan ang iyong kalamangan sa live na datos ng merkado — walang panganib sa kapital — sa isang libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may totoong premyo.
Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa pampublikong materyal (mga third-party na ulat na may petsa tungkol sa kanyang mga panayam, naka-link sa bawat tawag). Hindi ito payo sa pananalapi o pamumuhunan. Tinatayang numero lamang at patuloy na nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Mark? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 7 October 2026
