@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
Sa madaling salita. Kasamang nagtatag si Ki Young Ju ng CryptoQuant noong 2019 at ginawa itong isa sa pinakamadalas sipiing on-chain data provider sa crypto. Ang kanyang pampublikong pagsusuri ay nakasandal sa isang ideya: ang Realized Cap — kung gaano karaming tunay na pera ang aktwal na pumasok sa Bitcoin — na isinusukat laban sa market cap para malaman kung bull market o bear market. Dahil sa lenteng iyon, maaga siya sa Terra-Luna at sa FTX. Dahil din dito ay paulit-ulit at hayagan siyang bumabaliktad, pinakatanyag noong 2025 nang ideklara niyang tapos na ang bull cycle, humingi ng paumanhin makalipas ang pitong linggo, at pinanood ang Bitcoin na umakyat sa bagong rurok. Ganito rin ang pattern sa 2026: bear market hanggang 2027 noong Mayo 29, tapos «The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.» noong Agosto 25. Hindi siya tagatawag ng presyo — tagatawag siya ng rehimen ng merkado, at nagbabaligtad ang mga rehimen.
Isinilang noong 1992 at nag-aral sa Pohang University of Science and Technology, nagtrabaho si Ki bilang software engineer bago itatag ang Korean blockchain research group na Planet B noong 2018 at makasamang magtatag ng CryptoQuant kasama ang mga kapwa alumni noong Abril 2019. Nagbebenta ang kumpanya ng on-chain at exchange-flow data sa mga pondo at trader — tinawag itong «Bloomberg ng crypto» ng Chosun Daily ng South Korea — at noong Hulyo 2022 ay naging data provider ng CME Group. Naitayo ang reputasyon ng CryptoQuant sa dalawang maagang babala: kakaibang daloy ng Bitcoin bago ang pagbagsak ng Terra-Luna noong Mayo 2022, at kalaunan ay mga senyales tungkol sa FTX.
Sadyang makitid ang kanyang pampublikong pamamaraan. Itinuturing ng Realized Cap na bili ang barya na pumapasok sa isang wallet at benta ang lumalabas, kaya nakakakuha ito ng tantiya ng kapital na aktwal na inilagay sa Bitcoin; kapag inihambing sa market cap, nasasabi nito kung ang bagong pera ba ang nagpapagalaw sa presyo. Kapag hindi naitataas ng malalaking pagpasok ang presyo, bear ang tawag niya. Kapag itinataas ito nang malaki ng maliliit na pagpasok, bull. Malinis na balangkas ito, at nagbubunga ito ng matatapang na tawag sa rehimen.
Nagbubunga rin ito ng pagbaliktad, at hindi ito itinatago ni Ki. Noong Marso 17, 2025 ay nag-post siya ng «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action», pinalawak ito sa mahabang thread tungkol sa Realized Cap noong Abril 5, at noong Mayo 9, 2025 ay isinulat: «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.» Umabot ang Bitcoin sa bagong all-time high nang Oktubre — inilalagay ng press ang rurok sa mga $126K. Nasa labas ng window ng presyo sa ibaba ang pagkakamaling iyon, pero nararapat itong nasa record; at ipinapakita ng mga pahayag noong 2026 ang parehong reflex: noong Pebrero 1, 2026 ay isinulat niyang «this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation», noong Mayo 29 ay pinahaba ang bear market hanggang simula ng 2027, at pagsapit ng Agosto 21–25 ay natawag na niya ang ilalim at ang katapusan ng bear cycle. Basahin siya bilang isang opinyong may matibay na instrumento at mabilis mag-update — hindi bilang hulang mapapanagot sa kanya.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
On-chain na rehimen, hindi antas ng presyo. Halos hindi kailanman nagpo-post ng target si Ki. Nagpo-post siya ng kalagayan ng merkado — bull, bear, tagilid, may pundasyon na — na hinango sa Realized Cap laban sa market cap, sa tubo/lugi ng mga short-term holder, sa Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator (binuo mula sa MVRV, NUPL at SOPR laban sa kanilang 365-araw na average), at sa datos ng daloy ng exchange at ETF. Ang lakas nito: napapasubalian, may petsa, at nakaugat sa tunay na datos sa halip na sa pakiramdam. Ang kahinaan ay ang timing: maaaring tama sa istruktura ang isang regime signal at maaga o huli pa rin nang anim na linggo, at ipinapakita ng sarili niyang record na babaliktarin niya ang tawag sa rehimen sa loob ng labindalawang linggo kapag bumaliktad ang datos.
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
Kakaibang malinaw ang kanyang mga insentibo: datos ang binebenta niya, hindi signal. Naaalis nito ang problema ng pagsusulong ng token, pero may ibang dala — ang produkto ng CryptoQuant ay on-chain analytics mismo, at ang kanyang mga pampublikong post ang display window nito.
Bayad na data terminal ang negosyo — on-chain at exchange-flow analytics na ibinebenta sa mga pondo, desk at retail trader sa mga antas ng plano. Ang libreng pagsusuri niya sa X ang marketing funnel nito, mas malinis kaysa sa mga bayad na grupo pero interes pa rin.
Komersyal na nagbibigay ng on-chain data ang CryptoQuant, kabilang ang kasunduang provider sa CME Group na nilagdaan noong Hulyo 2022. Ginagantimpalaan ng institusyonal na distribusyon ang madalas masipi, at pinapaboran nito ang matatapang at madaling sipiing pahayag.
Nasa kumpanyang kasama niyang itinatag ang kanyang pakinabang, hindi sa isang trading book na inilalathala niya. Wala siyang signal service at hindi siya nagsusulong ng token — kaya kapag bumaliktad siya ng rehimen, walang renewal ng subscription na nakasalalay doon.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · ang orasan ng bear na kalauna'y tinalikuran niya“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · ang tumamang isa, at maaga pa“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · ang hayagang pagbawi — labas sa window na ito, nasa record pa rinAng mga sipi ay mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagmulan; mga sinabing pananaw, hindi rekomendasyon.
Walang video library na maili-link. Walang podcast si Ki at walang sariling channel — ang pampublikong output niya ay mga X post at ang research notes ng CryptoQuant; ang iba ay panayam ng ibang tao. Iyon mismo ang dahilan kung bakit bawat pahayag sa itaas ay siping may timestamp at link, hindi clip.
Kasamang tagapagtatag at CEO ng CryptoQuant, isang kumpanyang South Korean ng on-chain data na itinatag noong 2019 na nagbebenta ng blockchain at exchange-flow analytics sa mga pondo at trader. Isa siya sa pinakamadalas sipiing on-chain analyst sa crypto, at nagpo-post ng pagbasa sa merkado ng Bitcoin para sa mga 434,000 tagasunod sa X.
Hindi pampublikong nabeberipika. Nakatali ang yaman niya sa bahagi niya sa CryptoQuant, isang pribadong kumpanyang hindi naglalabas ng datos pinansyal. Huwag pansinin ang anumang tiyak na numerong makikita mong sinisipi — wala ni isang nakumpirma.
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
Ang Realized Cap — isang on-chain na tantiya kung gaano karaming tunay na kapital ang pumasok sa Bitcoin — na inihahambing sa market cap, kasama ang tubo/lugi ng mga short-term holder, ang daloy ng exchange at ETF, at ang Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator ng CryptoQuant. Tumatawag siya ng rehimen ng merkado (bull, bear, may pundasyon na) sa halip na antas o target na presyo.
Nagbabago ng isip si Ki kapag nagbago ang datos, at hayagan niyang tinatanggap ang bigat nito sa reputasyon. Gaano kalapit ang instinct mo — sukatin ito nang totohanan gamit ang Trader Passport.
Alinman doon, ang tanging pagsubok na makakapagpasya ay ang sarili mong record. Mag-trade gamit ang live na datos ng merkado — walang kapital na nakataya — sa libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may totoong premyo.
Impormatibo at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa mga materyal na bukas sa publiko — sa sarili niyang may-petsang X post at may-petsang saklaw ng ibang midya, naka-link sa bawat pahayag. Hindi ito payo sa pananalapi o pamumuhunan. Tinatayang lang ang mga numero at patuloy na nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Ki? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 4 October 2026
