@TimmerFidelity
Ang power-law analyst ng Fidelity. Pinamumunuan ni Timmer ang global macro sa asset-allocation group ng Fidelity at halos linggo-linggo niyang ipinopost ang kanyang mga Bitcoin chart sa X — isang curve na ikinabit sa bawat cycle mula 2015, isang support line sa ilalim nito, at isang gold ratio sa tabi. Dahil may petsa ang mga level na ipinopost niya, maaaring suriin ang kanyang record.
Sa madaling salita. Si Jurrien Timmer ang Director of Global Macro sa Fidelity Investments, kung saan siya nagtatrabaho mula 1995, at isa siyang Chartered Market Technician. Ang kanyang Bitcoin framework ay isang power-law model — isang trendline na may support curve sa ilalim na sumalo sa bawat malaking low mula 2015 — na binabasa kasabay ng Bitcoin-to-gold ratio at ng apat-na-taong cycle. Noong 2026, paulit-ulit niyang itinuro ang $60k bilang floor sa buong taglamig, tinawag niyang accumulation zone ang range noong Hulyo bago mismo ang low, at pagsapit ng huling bahagi ng Setyembre ay sinabi niyang nagsimula na ang isang bagong cyclical bull market, na may target na $100k at pagkatapos ay $300k pagsapit ng 2029. Hindi tumagal ang kanyang support band na $65–75k noong Disyembre 2025.
Nasa industriya ng investment si Timmer mula 1985. Bago sa Fidelity, siya ay vice president sa fixed-income group ng ABN AMRO. Sumali siya sa Fidelity noong 1995 bilang technical research analyst, naging director of market research, at lumipat sa Global Asset Allocation group noong 2005. Mula 2007 hanggang 2014, co-manager siya ng Fidelity Global Strategies Fund. May bachelor's degree siya sa finance mula sa Babson College at may hawak na CMT designation. Sa ngayon, siya ang sumusulat ng mga materyales sa market strategy na ibinibigay ng Fidelity sa mga kliyente at sa media.
Pagdating sa Bitcoin, matagal na siyang secular bull na gumagalang pa rin sa cycle. Noong 18 Disyembre 2025, isinulat niya na maaaring maging “pahingang taon” ang 2026 para sa Bitcoin, na may support sa $65–75k. Tama ang bahaging pahingang taon. Hindi ang support band: nagsara ang BTC nang kasimbaba ng $58,566 noong 1 Hulyo 2026, mas mababa sa kanyang range. Pagkatapos ay inilipat niya ang kanyang floor sa $60k at mula noon ay doon na siya nangangatwiran. Nasa labas ng chart window ang post na iyon noong Disyembre, pero nararapat itong mapasama sa record.
Sources: x.com/TimmerFidelity · Fidelity and CMT Association bios · dated coverage (CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin.com)
Model-driven na cycle macro. Hindi nagte-trade si Timmer ng candles. Ikinakabit niya ang buong kasaysayan ng presyo ng Bitcoin sa isang power-law curve, minamarkahan ang support line sa ilalim nito, sinusukat kung gaano kalayo ang presyo sa ilalim ng trend, at ikinukumpara ito sa 52-week Z-score ng BTC/gold at sa haba ng mga nakaraang apat-na-taong taglamig. Kapag umabot ang mga panukat sa lalim ng 2018 at 2022, tinatawag niya itong accumulation zone. Nagdadagdag din siya ng mata ng chartist (bear flags, double bottoms, $80k resistance) at pagsusuri ng liquidity: hindi siya nagdeklara ng bottom noong Hulyo dahil wala siyang nakitang catalyst mula sa money supply. Ang lakas nito ay isang pare-pareho at masusubok na framework. Ang kahinaan ay zone ang kanyang mga support level, hindi tripwire, at minsan nang nabasag ang zone sa cycle na ito.
Isang pangmatagalang Bitcoin bull na ginugol ang unang kalahati ng 2026 sa paghihintay na lumipas ang taglamig. Mula 18 Setyembre 2026, tahasan na siyang bullish at sinasabing nagsimula na ang isang bagong apat-na-taong cycle.
Eight dated stances from Timmer's own X posts, charted against real price. They trace a single framework through the 2026 winter: the $60k floor in March, a base-building read in April that came before a further −25% drop, the accumulation-zone call in July a few days before the low, the late-September bull-market call and the 2 October “broke through $80k” post. Five of the eight are only weeks old and are logged open. His December 2025 $65–75k support band missed. It predates the window and is disclosed in the background above.
“I continue to like both gold and Bitcoin, but especially Bitcoin looks interesting right now. For one we broke through resistance at $80k, targeting $100k.”
A week after his conditional double-bottom post (below), he said the condition had been met. Bitcoin had broken $80k and the target was now $100k. In the same thread he called Bitcoin a good diversifier now that “a new 4-year cycle is potentially underway”. The post went up at 15:06 UTC, so the chart anchors on that day's earlier daily point of $84,842. Since then BTC has peaked at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and dipped to $81,686 (−3.7%) on 9 October. It sits at $83,593 (−1.5%), still $16.4k short of the target. Open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — “we broke through resistance at $80k, targeting $100k”↗ x.com“Bitcoin’s power law math continues to suggest that a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029.”
His headline target, based on the power-law curve: a new cyclical bull market running to $300k in 2029. It is a three-year claim. From $84,076 BTC has moved between −2.8% and +2.9% and sits at $83,593 (−0.6%). This chart cannot settle it, so it is logged open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — power law, $300k in 2029↗ x.com“Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting here as it challenges key resistance at $80k. If it breaks it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100k.”
A conditional chart call: a break of $80k confirms a double bottom with a $100k target. BTC was already at $84,378 on the day. It has peaked at $86,490 (+2.5%) on 5 October and sits at $83,593 (−0.9%), still $16.4k short of the target. On 2 October he said the break had happened (above). Open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — $80k resistance, double bottom to $100k↗ x.com“That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts, so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway.”
After almost a year above $60k, and with the BTC/gold Z-score turning positive, he called the winter over. So far it has gone his way. From $76,371 BTC has not closed lower, ran to $86,597 (+13.4%) and sits at $83,593 (+9.5%). But this is a multi-year regime call made in mid-September, so it stays open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — “a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway”↗ x.com“Bitcoin has held the floor of its power law curve and has now corrected long enough to satisfy the time element of its mild 4- year cycle winter.”
A cycle-timing read: the floor held and the correction had lasted long enough. From $80,268 BTC dipped −5.8% to $75,590, ran to $86,597 (+7.9%) and sits at $83,593 (+4.1%). That leans his way, but the move is small for a cycle call. Open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — the floor held, the winter's time element is satisfied↗ x.com“As for Bitcoin, it too may be in an accumulation zone (in my view). At $60k it’s getting ever closer to its power law support line.”
His best-timed call. With BTC nearing the power-law support line (about $58k on his chart) he called it an accumulation zone, while saying he was not yet calling a bottom. From $63,193 BTC dipped only −1.4% to $62,279, then ran to $86,597 (+37.0%). It sits at $83,593 (+32.3%). Played out.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — “it too may be in an accumulation zone”↗ x.com“my sense is that Bitcoin continues to build a large base here in preparation for the next major up wave.”
At a recovery high he allowed that the rally could be a bear flag, but leaned toward a base forming. The bear-flag reading came first. From $78,239 BTC fell −25.1% to $58,566 by 1 July, below the $60k floor he had named in March. It then recovered to $86,597 (+10.7%) and is $83,593 (+6.8%) now. Anyone who bought his base took the full drawdown, so the call is not graded as played out. Open.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — building a large base for the next up wave↗ x.com“Bitcoin has continued to search for a bottom, and I still think that the $60k is a good place to look.”
He put the floor at $60k and said in the same post that price “may well undercut it at some point”. That is how it went. The post now falls just before the 210-day price window, which begins 17 March, so the chart anchors at $74,679 on that day. From there BTC fell −21.6% to a $58,566 close on 1 July, a shallow undercut of his $60k, and never went lower. It ran to $86,597 (+16.0%) and sits at $83,593 (+11.9%). The verdict rests on the level he named, which the moving anchor does not change. Played out.
𝕏 PostJurrien Timmer on X — “the $60k is a good place to look”↗ x.comAng mga resulta ay aming pagbasa sa kanyang ipinahayag na posisyon laban sa totoong presyo, hindi ang sarili niyang pagmamarka. Bawat sipi ay kinumpirma nang verbatim sa naka-link na post (buong teksto sa fxtwitter, petsa sa x_capture) bago i-publish. Maaaring magbago ang mga panandaliang marka habang umuusad ang cycle.
Hindi influencer si Timmer at wala siyang ibinebentang signals. Siya ay isang sinusuwelduhang strategist sa isa sa pinakamalalaking asset manager sa mundo. Mas malinis na insentibo iyon, pero hindi neutral: may mga Bitcoin product at custody ang Fidelity, at bahagi ng komunikasyon nito sa mga kliyente ang kanyang mga post.
Ang trabaho niya ay market strategy para sa mga kliyente ng Fidelity at sa media. Ang kanyang X posts ay karugtong ng trabahong iyon, hindi hiwalay na negosyo.
Nag-aalok ang Fidelity Digital Assets ng custody at trading, at nag-i-sponsor ang Fidelity ng isang spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC). Tugma ang positibong pananaw sa Bitcoin sa product line ng kanyang employer, na dapat isaalang-alang.
Wala kaming nakitang bayad na signals group, kurso o token na konektado sa kanya. Libre ang mga chart na ipinopost niya.
“Bitcoin’s power law math continues to suggest that a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029.”
26 Sep 2026 · ang pangunahing target“As for Bitcoin, it too may be in an accumulation zone (in my view). At $60k it’s getting ever closer to its power law support line.”
10 Jul 2026 · ilang araw bago ang low“Bitcoin has continued to search for a bottom, and I still think that the $60k is a good place to look.”
13 Mar 2026 · ang floor na pinanindigan niyaAng mga sipi ay hango sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagmulan; mga sinabing pananaw, hindi rekomendasyon.
Walang video library na mali-link. Walang sariling channel o podcast si Timmer, at ang mga paglabas niya sa TV at podcast ay mga programa ng ibang tao. Ang pangunahin niyang output ay ang mga chart post sa @TimmerFidelity, at bawat call sa itaas ay naka-link sa isa sa mga ito, na kinumpirma nang verbatim ang siniping pangungusap sa post. Para sa mas mahabang pagtingin sa kung paano siya mag-isip, sinasaklaw ng kanyang pakikipag-usap kay Barry Ritholtz sa Masters in Business noong Oktubre 2025 ang kanyang karera at macro framework.
Si Jurrien Timmer ang Director of Global Macro sa Fidelity Investments, bahagi ng Global Asset Allocation group nito. Sumali siya sa Fidelity noong 1995, dating nagtrabaho sa fixed income sa ABN AMRO, naging co-manager ng Fidelity Global Strategies Fund mula 2007 hanggang 2014, at isa siyang Chartered Market Technician.
On 26 September 2026 he wrote that Bitcoin's power-law math suggests a new cyclical bull market targeting $300k in 2029. A day earlier he said a break of $80k would confirm a double bottom targeting $100k, and on 2 October he wrote that Bitcoin had broken through $80k, targeting $100k.
In our 2026 window, 2 of 8 calls played out, 6 are still open and none have gone against him. His 10 July accumulation-zone call came days before the low and is up about 32%. His April base-building read came before a further 25% fall, and his December 2025 support band of $65–75k was broken.
Isa itong model na ikinakabit ang buong kasaysayan ng presyo ng Bitcoin sa isang curve sa log-log axes, na may support line sa ilalim nito. Sinalo ng support line ni Timmer ang bawat malaking low mula 2015. Binabasa niya ito kasama ng Bitcoin-to-gold ratio at ng haba ng mga nakaraang taglamig ng apat-na-taong cycle.
Binabasa ni Timmer ang Bitcoin sa pamamagitan ng pangmatagalang model, cycle timing at gold ratio, hindi ng daily candles. Gaano kalapit ang iyong instinct? Sukatin ito nang totoo gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon naman ay itala ang sarili mong pamamaraan. Subukin ang iyong kalamangan sa totoong datos ng merkado — walang puhunang nakataya — sa isang libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may tunay na premyo.
Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa mga pampublikong materyales — sa kasong ito, ang sariling may-petsang X posts ni Timmer, na naka-link sa bawat call, at ang kanyang inilathalang biography sa Fidelity. Hindi ito payong pinansyal o pang-investment. Tinatayang halaga lamang ang mga numero at palaging nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Jurrien? Magpadala ng pagwawasto →
Beripikadong mga account · Nakasaad ang pinagmulan sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 12 October 2026
