Josh Olszewicz

@CarpeNoctom

≈149K followers sa XCanary Capital pinuno ng trading8 may-petsang call na naka-chart dito

An Ichimoku chartist who runs trading at the crypto ETF issuer Canary Capital and posts short, dated chart calls to about 149,000 followers. In 2026 his turns were mostly well timed. On 29 May, with Bitcoin at $73,652, he said it was probably headed for a 200-week moving average test, and six days later it was there. His April title “Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026” is still a long way off, his September “M top” call was followed by a breakout, and he dropped his 6 October “rdy to rock” setup himself the next day.

Sa madaling salita. Josh Olszewicz trades Bitcoin and Ether from the Ichimoku cloud and classic chart patterns, and posts the setups on X as @CarpeNoctom. On our sample of eight in-window posts the record is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The best call was the bearish turn of 29 May: from $73,652 he expected a test of the 200-week moving average, which came on 4 June at $64,047 (−13.0%). He also called the July inverse head-and-shoulders target of 70k+ and Ether's August breakout (+32.2% in two weeks). The misses were the 11 September M top, which pointed to $70k–$72k while Bitcoin went to $86,597 instead, and a 6 October 4-hour breakout call that he abandoned the next day (“so much for that”). His 20 April title, a path to a new all-time high in 2026, is still open.

Background — ano ang dokumentado, at ano ang hindi

Si Josh Olszewicz ay VP at Head of Trading sa Canary Capital, isang asset manager sa US na naglalabas ng mga crypto ETF. Ang kanyang X bio ay “Canary.Capital PM & Head of Trading”. Ayon sa sariling team page ng Canary, dati siyang namuno sa crypto research sa BraveNewCoin, naging portfolio manager sa Techemy Capital at naging Head of Research sa Valkyrie Investments. Bago ang crypto, nagturo siya ng lab sciences sa antas ng unibersidad, at mayroon siyang BS sa Human Biology at MS sa Biotechnology. Nasa X na siya bilang @CarpeNoctom mula March 2009.

Sumusunod sa lingguhang ritmo ang kanyang output: isang video na “Setup Sunday”, isang “Macro Monday”, isang palabas na “Alt Coins” at isang livestream na “Broad Market Review” tuwing Biyernes, kasama ang lingguhang post tungkol sa datos ng CME Commitments of Traders (CoT) at sa daloy ng US spot ETF. Karamihan sa kanyang chart post ay sumasaklaw sa stocks pati na rin sa crypto. Ang page na ito ay nagga-grade lamang ng kanyang mga call sa Bitcoin at Ether, dahil iyon ang mga presyong sinusubaybayan ng site.

He also discloses a miss of his own. On 3 June 2026 he reposted his March 2018 post “ya, still on track for 33k by July” with the line “Heroes get remembered but bad calls never die”. Bitcoin did not come close to $33k in 2018. His weekly CoT posts read the data as bearish for most of the window, including through the July–September rally. We treat those as data reports, not price calls, and do not chart them. Eight posts qualified as calls, and several more were examined and excluded. Each is listed with its reason in the verified corpus.

Sources: x.com/CarpeNoctom (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · canary.capital/about · canaryetfs.com · linktr.ee/carpenoctom · YouTube oEmbed

Estilo ng kalakalan & pilosopiya

Ang cloud ang nagpapasya. Binabasa ni Olszewicz ang trend mula sa Ichimoku cloud (“kumo”): bullish kapag nasa itaas nito, bearish kapag nasa ibaba, at signal ang breakout dito. Pinagsasama niya ito sa mga klasikong pattern: head-and-shoulders at inverse head-and-shoulders, double top (“M”), falling wedge, at mga Fibonacci target. Karamihan sa mga post ay isang linya at isang chart, may target o invalidation level. Kaya madali silang i-grade. Ang lakas niya ay ang pagbaling kasabay ng trend: sa sample na ito, naging bearish siya bago lang ang pagbagsak noong Hunyo at bullish muli bago ang breakout noong Agosto. Ang kahinaan ay ang pattern na hindi natutuloy: binasa ng M top noong Setyembre ang isang paghinto bilang tuktok.

Track record — ang mga tawag, naka-chart

Eight dated posts from @CarpeNoctom, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The record is strongest at the turns: the 29 May call for a 200-week moving average test, the 5 June “no bottom yet”, the 20 July 70k+ target and Ether's August breakout all played out. The 11 September M top and the 6 October “rdy to rock” setup went against, and the April all-time-high title is still open.

Outcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. X's API writes the BTC and ETH token tags as “bitcoin:native” and “ethereum:native”, and we quote them as returned. We did not chart his weekly CoT and ETF-flow posts (data reports), hedged posts (“bull flag possible”), a 3 May post that was conditional on the low holding (it did not hold), or a later Puell Multiple post that restated the July bull case and would have scored as a win. From the 20 October refresh we also left out hedged or pattern-watch posts: “4h $BTC FW potential” (17 September), “1D $ETH unconfirmed hidden bull div” (8 October) and “$ETH H&S watch” (14 October), along with ratio charts such as SOL/BTC and ETH/BTC. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark. The 6 October card is graded from his own follow-ups, “looked*” the same day and “well, so much for that, on to the next trade” on 7 October, and from price. The “$1,000 na inilagay sa tawag na iyon” line assumes buying on the post date; for the bearish 29 May and 11 September cards, that line is not a short. Near-term marks can flip.

Saan nanggagaling ang pera — at nasaan ang mga conflict of interest

Libre ang mga post at stream ni Olszewicz. Ang pangunahing kita niya ay mula sa kanyang trabaho, at may link sa isang exchange ang kanyang link page. Narito ang aming natagpuan.

Mga natatanging ideya

Mga sipi mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagkunan; mga pananaw na binanggit, hindi rekomendasyon.

Aklatan ng nilalaman

Nag-i-stream si Olszewicz sa YouTube (@carpenoctom), sa X at sa Twitch, at ipino-post ang bawat palabas sa X. Sinasaklaw ng “Broad Market Review” tuwing Biyernes ang crypto, macro at stocks. Mga kamakailang stream na aming na-verify:

Broad Market Review: Drop It Like Its HotNa-stream sa araw ng kanyang M top call.11 Sep 2026Broad Market Review: Breakout ConfirmedAng breakout ng Bitcoin noong Abril, tatlong araw bago ang video tungkol sa all-time high.17 Apr 2026Broad Market Review - Home on the Choppy RangeAng Bitcoin na naipit sa range nito sa unang bahagi ng Abril.3 Apr 2026

Tuwirang mga sagot

Gaano kalapit ang estilo mo?

Hinahayaan ni Olszewicz ang cloud na magpasya. Gaano kalapit ang iyong instinct? Sukatin ito nang totoo gamit ang Trader Passport.

Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa mga materyales na pampubliko: mga may-petsang post sa X na kinuha mula sa mga pampublikong endpoint ng X at ang mga sangguniang naka-link sa bawat hula. Hindi ito payong pampinansyal o pang-investment. Tantiya lamang ang mga numero at patuloy na nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Josh? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →

Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 20 October 2026