@GertvanLagen
Isang Dutch na inhinyero na naging chartist, at iisa lang ang napakalaking ideyang hawak niya: nasa loob ang Bitcoin ng huling alon ng isang supercycle na nagsimula noong 2009, at nagtatapos iyon sa may $400,000–$450,000. Lahat ng inilalathala niya ay ang tesis na iyon, muling isinusulat kada linggo, kasama ang level na binabantayan niya na nakasulat — at iyon mismo ang dahilan kung bakit puwede itong markahan.
Sa madaling salita. Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen, roughly 125,000 followers, on X since December 2009) is one of crypto's most persistent Elliott Wave analysts. His X bio gives the whole framing: “MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Macro Strategist | NFA | Strate𝔾”. Since April 2026 he has published a weekly letter, the Strate𝔾 Update, that walks the same route every time — macro pulse, then Bitcoin, then altcoins, stocks, forex — and lands on a wave count pointing at a blow-off top around $400k–$450k. The record below is the honest shape of that: his most bullish week, 5 May, landed six days before Bitcoin's May peak and was followed by a 26.6% collapse; from 17 June through 15 August he repeatedly refused to call it a bear market, and on the day he said the cycle-bottom trendline was being tested Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further before rallying more than a third; and the $82.8k line he made the whole question in September finally broke on 22 September. The supercycle target itself is still roughly 5x away.
Dutch si van Lagen at inilalarawan niya ang sarili, sa tanging biograpiyang talagang nilagdaan niya, bilang MSc in Systems and Control na nagtatrabaho bilang macro strategist — ang bio sa X account na hawak niya mula 4 Disyembre 2009. Wala siyang inaalok na pondo, kompanya, o na-audit na track record; ang mayroon siya ay isang dekada ng pampublikong Elliott Wave charts at, mula 22 Abril 2026, isang lingguhang sulat sa ilalim ng pangalang Strate𝔾 na nagtatali sa mga chart na iyon sa petsa.
Hindi pangkaraniwang madaling basahin ang paraan niya para sa crypto-X. Bawat Strate𝔾 Update ay nagbubukas sa parehong paalala — “The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don't take it as financial advice.” — at pagkatapos ay bumababa mula sa itaas: patakaran ng Fed, langis at inflation, ang Russell 2000 bilang sukatan niya ng risk-on, at saka pa lang ang Bitcoin, kung saan ipinapatong niya ang wave count sa dalawang mahabang trendline: sa ibaba, dumadaan sa 2018 bear-market low, 2020 Covid low at 2022 low; sa itaas, isang secular na linya malapit sa $450K. Buwan-buwang umuulit ang mga level — $66k, tapos $82.8k — dahil mabagal gumalaw ang istrukturang inilalarawan niya.
Ang problema sa katapatan ng isang maraming-taong wave count ay halos hindi ito nagkakamali sa takdang petsa, kaya dapat itala ang pinakamadalas na isiping pagkakamali niya. Noong 9 Marso 2024 nag-post siya: “By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days. A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.” Kinabukasan ginawa itong headline ng U.Today: “Bitcoin (BTC) at $200,000 Is More Feasible Than You Think.” Hindi pa kailanman nag-trade ang Bitcoin sa $200,000 — ayon mismo sa mga sulat niya, nag-top ang cycle sa $126k. Ang mismong disiplina sa target na nagpapa-check sa lingguhan niyang mga level ang gumagawa rin ng mga numerong pang-headline na hindi dumating.
Sources: x.com/GertvanLagen (posts captured verbatim via the X syndication endpoint) · gertvanlagen.substack.com (publicly-served text of dated Strate𝔾 Update editions) · U.Today coverage used only to date and locate the 2024 post
Elliott Wave na istruktura sa ibabaw ng macro pulse. Nagbibilang ng alon si van Lagen — impulses, expanded flats, expanding diagonals — at isinasabit ang mga ito sa mga trendline na umaabot ng maraming taon, hindi sa mga indicator. Ang sahig ng Bitcoin, sa balangkas niya, ay ang asul na linyang dumadaan sa 2018 low, 2020 Covid low at 2022 bear-market low, pinatibay ng 210,000-block halving EMA/SMA; ang kisame ay ang secular na linyang pinepresyuhan niya ngayon sa malapit sa $450K. Sa paligid nito ay isang paulit-ulit na macro checklist — landas ng Fed, langis bilang input cost ng ekonomiya, ISM at payrolls, at ang Russell 2000 bilang risk-on signal na aniya'y nanguna sa Bitcoin sa rotasyon. Lakas niya: pinapangalanan niya ang level na magdedesisyon ($74k, $66k, $82.8k) at inuulit ito hanggang mabasag. Kahinaan niya ang di-pagtugma ng timeframe: ang isang count na natatapos sa $400k ay walang sinasabi tungkol sa 26% na drawdown sa daan, at nanatili siyang structurally bullish mismo sa gitna ng drawdown na nasa record na ito.
Structurally at matiyagang bullish. Sa buong window ay ni minsan hindi siya lumipat sa bear-market call — sa pinakamasama, tinawag niyang shakeout sa loob ng consolidation ang selloff — kaya basahin ang lingguhan niyang mga level bilang timing sa loob ng permanenteng long thesis, hindi bilang two-sided na pananaw.
Nine dated calls, all of them his own: two posts from @GertvanLagen captured verbatim from X, seven from dated editions of his Strate𝔾 Update. The oldest, 4 March, has since rolled out of the CoinGecko price window and is charted from the window's first day. An honest caveat on selection — the weekly letter is a paid newsletter, and what is charted here is the portion Substack serves publicly (the subtitle and the opening of each section, which is where he states the week's thesis and the level he is watching). The paywalled remainder is not quoted, and it may contain qualifications this page cannot see. The shape that emerges: he was wrong at the top — his most bullish letter, 5 May, came six days before Bitcoin's May peak — and right through the bottom, refusing a bear-market call from 17 June onward and naming the cycle-bottom trendline on 15 August, within 0.2% of the low that followed. The through-line, a wave-5 blow-off at $400k–$450k, is roughly 5x away and is logged open, not correct.
“This week, the $82.8k lower high was finally broken with a strong move higher, shifting the structure from a downtrend to a broken downtrend. This creates a potential double-bottom setup, with the red horizontal line as the neckline and a lower-timeframe target around $120k.”
The week his $82,800 line finally broke, he turned it into a pattern: a double bottom with a lower-timeframe target around $120,000, with BTC at $84,076. So far it is holding but not going: the dip since was only $83,479 (−0.7%) on 29 September — still above the $82.8k he says now has to hold as support — and the best close is $86,490 (+2.9%) on 5 October. At $84,009 (−0.1%) the target is another +42.8% away, so this is logged open.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 39 | Q3 | 2026, “BTC clears $82.8k breaking the 1-year downtrend (!)”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“Ethereum set to print higher high on weekly chart.”
The headline thesis of that week's letter, stated in its subtitle with ETH at $2,515. It printed: after a −4.7% dip to $2,397 on the 16th, Ethereum ran to $2,775 (+10.4%) on 22 September — the highest price in the whole window — and sits at $2,608 (+3.7%). A small, precise call that did what he said within ten days.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 37 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 12 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“the $82,8k level really needs to be cleared first, for BTC to print a Higher High - Breaking the cascade of lower lows and lower highs since the $126k top”
With BTC at $79,671 he refused to call the rally a trend change until $82,800 broke — “The $82.8k lower high was not yet defeated.” It dipped first, −5.1% to $75,590 on 16 September, then cleared the line on 22 September at $86,597 (+8.7%), the highest close of the window and the first higher high since the $126k top. It sits at $84,009 (+5.4%), still above ang binanggit na level. He named the trigger, it broke, and price did what he said it would after — now logged played out (it was open on this page until then).
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 36 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 5 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
His best call of the window. With BTC at $62,984 he said it was “currently testing the lower blue trendline connecting the major 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low, and the 2022 bear-market low” and read it as cycle-bottom confluence. Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further — to $62,844 on 17 August — then ran to $86,597 (+37.5%) by 22 September and trades at $84,009 (+33.4%). The $450K end of that same count remains untouched.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 33 | Q3 | 2026, “Risk-on strengthens as Bitcoin hits historical bottom trend”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.”
Called the summer chop a mid-cycle correction due to reverse, with BTC at $63,917. It reversed almost immediately: the deepest dip after was $62,773 (−1.8%) on 2 August, then $86,597 (+35.5%) on 22 September, now $84,009 (+31.4%). The blow-off he framed it against is a $400k target — that part has not happened.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 31 | Q3 | 2026, “Summer Sideways - Extremely boring”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
The first edition in this window to state it in capitals, with BTC at $65,619 stalling under the $66k resistance he had named. He was right about the regime and early on the price: Bitcoin fell another 10.7% to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — before running to $86,597 (+32.0%) on 22 September and settling at $84,009 (+28.0%). He repeated this line almost verbatim for five straight weeks; this is where it starts.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 25 | Q2 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 17 Jun 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“$ETH is printing a highly complex Expanding Diagonal, consisting of 5 corrective waves in a triangular structure. Wave c of 5 of ⑤ is the final blow-off style impulse, targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k”
Direction right, magnitude nowhere near. From $1,812 Ethereum first fell 13.6% to $1,566 on 26 June, then rallied to $2,775 (+53.2%) on 22 September and sits at $2,608 (+44.0%) — a good call by any normal standard. But the box he named starts at $10,000, which is another +283% from here, and ends at $22,000, +744% away. Logged open: the thesis has not been invalidated and has not paid.
𝕏 Post“Wave c of 5 of ⑤ … targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+. In this section, I will show that both the low- and high-timeframe structures point to this target.”
His most bullish letter of the window, and the worst-timed. BTC was $79,826 and he had just noted it “has now cleared the long-standing $74k resistance!”. Six days later it peaked at $82,018 on 11 May, then fell 26.6% to $58,566 by 1 July. Bitcoin did eventually get past that May high — $86,597 (+8.5%) on 22 September — and is $84,009 (+5.2%) today, but the call pointed up and the next move was a quarter off, and $400k is still +376% away.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 19 | Q2 | 2026, “Bulls need to push through this time!”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.”
Posted on 4 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. The near-term half worked: Bitcoin ran to $82,018 by 11 May, gave it back to $58,566 (−16.4%) on 1 July, then made the high of the window, $86,597 (+23.7%), on 22 September, and is $84,009 (+20.0%) now. The stated destination is not close: $400k is +376% from today's price. Up 20% is not a wrong call — but it is not the call he made, so it stays open.
𝕏 Post“my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel … at ~$400k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Mar 2026↗ x.comAng mga resulta ay basa namin sa ipinahayag niyang posisyon laban sa totoong araw-araw na closing ng CoinGecko, hindi ang sarili niyang pagmamarka. Ang mga presyo sa teksto ay mula sa parehong serye kung saan iginuhit ang mga chart. Ang mga pangmatagalang target na hindi man lang nalapitan ang level ay itinatala bilang bukas sa halip na bilangin bilang tama, at maaaring magbago ang panandaliang marka habang nareresolba ang cycle. Kapag paulit-ulit ang isang linya sa ilang lingguhang sulat, ginagamit ng card ang labas kung saan unang lumitaw ito sa window na ito.
Ang negosyo ay iisang bayad na newsletter na hayag ang presyo, kasama ang ekonomiya ng mga kumperensiya na kasama ng anim na digit na tagasunod. Walang signals group, walang token, walang exchange affiliate na natagpuan namin — pero ang presyo mismo ng sulat ang insentibong dapat malaman, dahil ang libreng kalahati ang bahaging kailangang tumunog na apurahan.
Bayad na lingguhan ang Strate𝔾 Update. Ang mga plan object na ipinapakita sa pampublikong subscribe page niya ay nagbabasang “$26.50 a month” at “$265 a year” (USD, ginawa noong Hulyo 2025). Sa 23 post sa archive niya noong 20 Setyembre 2026, 21 ang para lamang sa bayad — kasama ang bawat market letter. Ang pampubliko ay ang subtitle at ang simula ng bawat seksyon, at iyon ang nasa chart ng pahinang ito.
Noong 26 Mayo 2026 naglathala siya ng dalawang libreng post: isa para sa Dutch Blockchain Week na may subtitle na “Want a ticket? Use my discount code: GertvanLagen15”, at isa para sa Proof of Talk sa Louvre — “I have 10 nomination spots, and I am giving you the opportunity to be part of it!” Wala sa dalawa ang naglalahad kung may bayad o komisyon ang code o ang mga nominasyon.
Taon nang inilalathala niya ang parehong $400k–$450k na wave count, at ang madla ng sulat ay bumili mismo sa ideyang buhay pa ang count na iyon. Hindi ito nakatagong conflict — nakasaad ito sa bawat labas — pero ipinapaliwanag nito ang postura: sa pitong buwan ng record na ito ay ni minsan hindi siya nagdeklara ng bear market, pati na sa linggo bago ang 26% na drawdown.
“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
15 Aug 2026 · dalawang araw bago ang pinakamababa, at tama“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+.”
05 May 2026 · six days before the May peak“I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
17 Jun 2026 · ang linyang inulit niya nang limang magkakasunod na linggo“A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.”
09 Mar 2024 · ang pagkakamaling isinasampal pa rin sa kanyaMga sipi mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagkunan; mga pananaw na binanggit, hindi rekomendasyon.
There is no video library to link — van Lagen has no channel of his own. His public output is charts on X and the weekly Strate𝔾 Update on Substack, which is why every call above is a timestamped post or a dated letter rather than a clip. The editions behind seven of the nine cards are public at the links on those cards; the full corpus, with the live verification log, is cited in the sources line.
Isang Dutch na macro strategist at Elliott Wave analyst na naglalathala ng Bitcoin chart analysis para sa humigit-kumulang 125,000 tagasunod sa X bilang @GertvanLagen, at mula Abril 2026 ay may bayad na lingguhang newsletter, ang Strate𝔾 Update. Sabi ng sarili niyang bio ay may MSc in Systems and Control siya; wala siyang inilalahad na pondo, kompanya, o na-audit na track record.
Inilalagay ng patuloy niyang Elliott Wave count ang huling wave-5 blow-off top ng isang supercycle na nagsimula noong 2009 sa itaas na trendline ng channel niya — na pinresyuhan niya sa humigit-kumulang $400,000 at, sa mga sulat noong Agosto 2026, “currently around $450K”. Hindi pa nalalapitan ang target na iyon: mga 5x ito ng presyo ngayon, at itinatala ito ng dossier bilang bukas, hindi tama.
Hindi alam ng publiko at hindi mabe-verify. Wala siyang inilalahad na pondo, kompanya, o laki ng posisyon; ang tanging nakikitang negosyo ay isang bayad na Substack sa $26.50 kada buwan. Huwag pansinin ang anumang tiyak na numerong idinidikit sa pangalan niya — walang kumpirmado.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the record cuts both ways: of nine dated calls we charted, five played out, three are open and one went clearly against him — he was at his most bullish six days before Bitcoin's May peak, and he called the cycle-bottom trendline two days before a local low that undercut him by only 0.2%, ahead of a rally of more than a third. His best-known long-term call, $200k before the April 2024 halving, never happened. Treat his letters as a dated, checkable opinion — never trade them blindly.
Ini-zoom out ni van Lagen hanggang mawala ang ingay: isang wave count, isang trendline, isang destinasyong taon pa ang layo. Gaano kalapit ang instinct mo — sukatin ito nang totoo gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon, gamitin ang iyong paraan. Subukan ang iyong kalamangan sa live na datos ng merkado — walang panganib sa kapital — sa isang libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may totoong premyo.
Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa mga materyales na pampubliko — ang sarili niyang may-petsang mga post sa X at ang tekstong ipinapakita sa publiko ng mga may-petsang labas ng kanyang newsletter, naka-link sa bawat call. Hindi ito payo sa pananalapi o pamumuhunan. Tinatayang bilang lamang ang mga numero at patuloy silang nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Gert? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 7 October 2026
