@caprioleio
Ang lalaking nasa likod ng Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value at Production Cost — mga sukatang ibinabalik sa kanya mismo ng ibang analyst. Nagpapatakbo si Edwards ng sistematikong pondo sa bitcoin at inilalathala niya ang mga modelong ipinangangalakal nito, may petsa. Kaya siya ay hindi karaniwang madaling suriin: kapag sinabi ng kanyang pagpapahalaga na «malalim na halaga», puwede mong tingnan kung ano talaga ang ginawa ng presyo pagkatapos.
Sa madaling salita. Itinatag ni Charles Edwards ang Capriole Investments noong 2019 at pinamamahalaan niya ang Capriole Fund, isang lisensiyado at inaawditang sistematikong pondo. Kilala siya hindi dahil sa mga target na presyo kundi dahil sa paggawa ng mga sukatan ng pagpapahalagang on-chain na ginagamit na ngayon ng malaking bahagi ng industriya — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, ang Bitcoin Yardstick. Ang kanyang pampublikong output ay isang libreng Substack at isang siksik na daloy ng mga tsart sa X. Halo-halo ang talaan sa ibaba sa isang paraang lubhang nagtuturo: ang kanyang mabagal na mga tawag sa pagpapahalaga — «zona ito ng halaga, hintayin ang gastos sa produksiyon» — ay gumana nang maayos sa buong pagbagsak ng 2026, samantalang ang kanyang mabibilis na senyas ng daloy at momentum — pagsipsip ng institusyon, pag-ikot ng stablecoin, pagbaligtad ng mga treasury company — ay paulit-ulit na sumabog ilang araw lang bago ang mga lokal na taluktok. Ang parehong sukatan ng daloy ng institusyon ang gumawa sa kanyang bullish noong Mayo 5 at bearish noong Mayo 26; ang gumanang kalahati ay ang bearish.
Si Edwards ang tagapagtatag at CEO ng Capriole Investments, na ayon sa sarili nitong website ay «itinatag noong 2019» at «namamahala sa Capriole Fund, isang lisensiyado at inaawditang master fund na naglilingkod sa mga mamumuhunan sa mahigit 25 bansa», na may «sistematikong paraan ng pamumuhunan na nakatutok sa ganap na kita sa buong siklo ng merkado». Sumasaklaw ang istruktura sa isang limited partnership sa US at dalawang sasakyan sa Cayman Islands, na may operasyon sa Australia. Hindi siya nagtitinda ng senyas sa retail: ang negosyo ay ang pondo, at ang mga pampublikong sulatin ang bintana nitong pantindahan.
Ang kanyang nananatiling ambag ay pagsukat, hindi panghuhula. Kanya ang Hash Ribbons (pagsuko ng mga minero), ang Bitcoin Energy Value at Production Cost (mga bandang patas-na-halaga mula sa gastos ng pagmimina), ang Bitcoin Yardstick at ang Dynamic Range NVT; gayundin ang mga panloob na modelong binabanggit niya sa kanyang mga liham — Trend King, Macro Index, Bitcoin Perps Heat at ang Market Hedge Ratio. Dahil inilalathala niya ang mga pagbasa na may petsa, mapabubulaanan ang kanyang mga tawag sa paraang hindi kayang gawin ng karamihan ng komentaryo — at pumuputol iyon sa magkabilang panig.
Para sa katapatan, isang naitalang pagkakamali na nasa labas ng bintanang ito ng tsart: noong Oktubre 2, 2025 iniulat ng Cointelegraph na sinabi niyang maaaring umarangkada ang bitcoin «sa bagong pinakamataas na $150,000» bago matapos ang 2025. Hindi ito nangyari — umabot lang ang BTC sa mga $126,000. Ang kanyang mga tawag sa Hash Ribbons at Energy Value noong 2019–2021 ay nasa labas din ng 210-araw na bintana ng presyo at hindi itinsart dito. Isang hiwalay at malawak na kinokopyang pigurang «$280,000» na iniuugnay sa isang post noong 2024 ay hindi masubaybayan pabalik sa orihinal na pinagmulan, kaya hindi ito iginigiit saanman sa pahinang ito.
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
Sistematiko at pinapatnubayan ng pagpapahalaga. Nagsisimula si Edwards sa gastos ng produksiyon at sa mga banda ng halagang on-chain sa halip na mga pattern ng tsart: nasaan ang presyo kumpara sa gastos ng isang minero para gumawa ng isang barya, ano ang sinasabi ng Yardstick, nasa itaas o ibaba ba ng pang-araw-araw na paglikha ang pangangailangan ng institusyon. Sa mahabang abot-tanaw, tunay itong mahusay — ito ang nagsabi sa kanyang maghintay sa buong tagsibol at magdeklara ng halaga sa mga mababa ng Hunyo. Lumilitaw ang kahinaan sa maiikling abot-tanaw: ang kanyang mga senyas batay sa daloy (pagsipsip ng institusyon, pag-ikot ng stablecoin, pagbili ng mga treasury company) ay binabalangkas sa «karaniwan» at «sa kasaysayan» mula sa maliliit na sampol, at sa bintanang ito tatlong bullish ang sumabog ilang araw bago ang isang lokal na taluktok — bagaman ang pagbaligtad ng parehong sukatan tungong bearish noong Mayo 26 ay isang magandang tawag, na siyang mismong lagda ng isang sabayang tagapagpahiwatig at hindi isang nanguna. Pinapangalanan din niya ang sarili niyang antas ng paghihiwalay, at tunay iyong disiplina — sinabi niyang «higit sa $71.5K» at seryoso siya.
Turned constructive in late September. On 16 September he wanted a weekly close back above $78K, and Bitcoin.com News reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view. Once that line was reclaimed his own posts flipped: on 24 September the Bitcoin Yardstick “says: bear market is over” — with a warning of 6-8 weeks of chop first — and on 1 October he called the end of the biggest miner capitulation since 2021 “a macro trend change”. Valuation bull, now leaning bullish near-term as well, chop caveat attached.
Ten dated calls from his own Substack and X feed, plus verbatim quotes in dated press — every one re-fetched live and matched word-for-word against its source before publishing. The split is the story, and it is about horizon, not direction. His valuation work (13 Mar, 9 Jun) was right, the conditional long he defined on 15 April paid and then stopped out exactly where he said it would, on 26 May he reversed on new data and was right again, and the $78K line he drew on 16 September was reclaimed within days. His fast flow signals (1 May, 5 May, 4 Sep) each fired within days of a local high — one on the day itself. His two newest calls, the Yardstick's “bear market is over” (24 Sep) and the end of miner capitulation on his Hash Ribbons (1 Oct), are still open. Five further in-window items were examined and excluded, with the reason for each, in the draft's verified_sources.txt.
“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining and killed 50% of the network overnight in 2021. Hash Rate is seeing its first signs of growth since 2025. This is a macro trend change and how Hash Ribbons should be interpreted in the new era of efficiency.”
His own indicator, read by its author: the miner capitulation Hash Ribbons was built to track is over, and he called it “a macro trend change”. He signed off with “If you know, you know what this means” rather than a level — the end of a capitulation is what his Hash Ribbons buy signal marks, but he gave no target and no timeframe. Posted at 05:37 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $83,576. BTC has since reached $84,842 (+1.5%) and is $84,793 (+1.5%). Three days old — open.
𝕏 Post“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time.”
His own valuation metric — market cap over hash rate — leaving its deep-discount zone, and the most bullish thing he has said in this window. He pointed to 2020 and 2023, when price more than doubled from here, but set no target, and in the same post warned that “both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up.” So far the caveat is the accurate half: from $84,382 BTC has held a $83,479–$84,842 range (−1.1% to +0.5%) and is $84,793 (+0.5%) ten days on. It is also an about-face from his 16 September warning, made once his $78K line had been reclaimed. Open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
Posted with BTC at $75,590, hours after the US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act. He named one level — a weekly close above $78,000 — and said the alternative gets ugly. The market took the good branch: BTC was back above $78K by 19 September, has held above it at every daily point since, and the day of his post is still the low. It ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and is $84,793 (+12.2%). This was a warning, not a rally forecast, so the credit is for naming the right pivot. Bitcoin.com News had reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view; his own posts since have turned bullish — see the two cards above.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
His Market Hedge Ratio (USDT/BTC market cap, rolling 30 days) hit −20.42% and he said downside was “basically capped” with weeks of upside to run. The next two weeks said otherwise: from $81,265 on 4 September BTC fell −7.0% to $75,590 by the 16th. The upside did come, but late — BTC first traded above his entry on 22 September, 18 days on, at $86,597 (+6.6%), and sits at $84,793 (+4.3%). Graded against on what he claimed for the weeks that followed: a 7% drawdown first is not capped downside.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
His own cost-of-mining model, used as intended: at $63,069 he marked the $50K–$63K band as the historical long-term value zone. It worked. BTC dipped only −7.1% to $58,566 on 1 July — inside the band he named — then ran +37.3% to $86,597 by 22 September and holds $84,793 (+34.4%). The best call on this page.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Twenty-one days after the $96K note, the same institutional-flow metric flipped negative and so did he. That call worked: from $77,258 BTC fell −24.2% to $58,566 by 1 July and was never more than +5.2% above his post until 22 September — four months on — when it reached $86,597 (+12.1%); it sits at $84,793 (+9.8%). Credit for reversing fast on new data — but read it against the card below, because it is one indicator contradicting itself inside three weeks, which is the honest case for treating it as coincident rather than predictive.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
His most specific call in the window, and his worst — with the number in his own newsletter, not a reporter's arithmetic. Posted six days before the May high. From $79,826 BTC gained just +2.7% to $82,018 on 11 May against the “double digit returns” the analogue promised, then fell −26.6% to $58,566; it sits at $84,793 (+6.2%) five months later. $96,000 was never reached — even the 22 September high of $86,597 is 9.8% short of it. The same issue reported Capriole's Trend King as “leverage long Bitcoin”, so this was his positioning, not just his commentary.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Treasury-company buying bounced off extreme lows and he flagged the inflection as historically bullish — while openly noting the thin sample. The caveat earned its keep: from $76,297 BTC added just +7.5% to $82,018 over ten days, then gave it all back and more, −23.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. It is $84,793 (+11.1%) five months on, but only by way of that drawdown — not the bullish inflection the post pointed to.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
A conditional call with the invalidation stated up front — bullish above $71.5K, and in the same letter: “if the current move breaks down next week… our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly.” It paid, then stopped out exactly as written. From $74,297 BTC rose +10.4% to $82,018 by 11 May; his $71,500 line broke on 2 June at $71,320, and the flush ran to $58,566 (−21.2%). Now $84,793 (+14.1%). Graded on the trade he defined, not the hold.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
The useful half of this call was the refusal: value, yes — but not the deep value that gets him excited, which he placed at the production-cost band of roughly $50,000–$60,000. Investors who waited were right. The outcome is as two-sided as the call: from $70,417 BTC first rose +16.5% to $82,018, then fell −16.8% to $58,566 on 1 July — almost symmetric — clipping the top of the band he named before recovering to $86,597 (+23.0%) on 22 September; it is $84,793 (+20.4%) now. He was right that the bottom was closer than the top, and right not to call it. He also said he doubted new all-time highs until quantum risk was addressed by Bitcoin Core — none have come.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring — Capriole's fund returns are not public and nothing here is a claim about them. Every $ and % figure matches scripts/price_at.py exactly. Dates are utterance dates, not the date a write-up appeared: the 5 May and 4 Sep calls are dated to his own post, which the source states explicitly, and the 26 May quote is an X post reproduced verbatim in same-day coverage. The 24 Sep and 1 Oct posts went up at 04:36 and 05:37 UTC and are charted at that day's 00:00 UTC point. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Isang pondo ang negosyo ni Edwards, hindi subscription o grupo ng senyas — isang materyal na kaibang istruktura ng insentibo kaysa sa karamihan ng pangalan sa hub na ito, at isang dapat unawain sa halip na ipagpalagay na mas malinis.
Ayon sa capriole.com, itinatag ang Capriole Investments noong 2019 at namamahala ito ng «lisensiyado at inaawditang master fund» (isang US LP kasama ang dalawang sasakyan sa Cayman) na naglilingkod sa mga mamumuhunan sa mahigit 25 bansa. Ekonomiya ng tagapamahala ng pondo — bayad sa pamamahala at sa performance — hindi pagtitinda sa retail.
Libre at walang bayad-harang ang kanyang newsletter at mga indicator sa TradingView, kaya nakuha nang unang-kamay ang mga tawag sa itaas. Ang halatang insentibo: marketing para sa pondo ang pampublikong pananaliksik, at ang tagapamahalang nagsasalita tungkol sa kanyang libro ay nagsasalita tungkol sa isang buhay na posisyon.
Wala kaming natagpuang subscription sa senyas, referral code o promosyon ng token sa sinuring materyal. Hindi patunay ang kawalan ng ebidensiya sa pitong buwang sampol — ngunit iyon ang ipinakita ng talaan.
Hindi kumpirmado sa publiko ang AUM ng pondo, ang kita, ang laki ng sarili niyang posisyon, bilang ng tagasunod at bansang tinitirhan, kaya walang pigura tungkol sa alinman sa mga ito ang lumalabas sa pahinang ito.
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · gumagana ang kanyang paraan — halaga sa mga mababa“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · posted on the day of a local top“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · isang tawag na may sariling paghihiwalayMga sipi mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagkunan; mga pananaw na binanggit, hindi rekomendasyon.
Walang aklatan ng bidyo na maililink: walang sariling channel si Edwards. Naglalathala siya ng libreng Substack, nagpo-post ng mga tsart sa X, at lumalabas bilang panauhin sa iba — kaya nga ang bawat tawag sa itaas ay isang may-petsang post o isang tuwirang sipi sa may-petsang balita, hindi isang clip. Pampubliko ang sarili niyang mga liham sa likod ng dalawa sa mga tawag at naka-link sa kani-kanilang card: «Uncharted Waters» (Abr 15, 2026) at «Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin» (May 5, 2026).
Tagapagtatag at CEO ng Capriole Investments, isang sistematikong pondo ng digital asset na inilunsad noong 2019. Pinakakilala siya sa paglikha ng malawakang ginagamit na mga sukatang on-chain para sa bitcoin — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost at ang Bitcoin Yardstick — at sa libreng paglalathala ng kanyang pananaliksik sa Substack at X sa ilalim ng handle na @caprioleio.
Hindi napatutunayan sa publiko. Nagpapatakbo siya ng pondo sa halip na magbenta ng subscription, at hindi pampubliko ang AUM, bayarin at kita ng Capriole. Balewalain ang anumang tiyak na pigura — wala ni isang kumpirmado.
His record in this seven-month sample splits cleanly by horizon. Slow valuation work — the March “not deep value yet” refusal and the June production-cost call — was right, the latter ahead of a 37.3% rally, and his 26 May reversal to caution was right too. Fast bullish flow signals were not: three of them in May and September fired within days of local tops, one on the day of a local top. He is a research source, not a trade alert, and nothing here is financial advice.
Sistematiko at pinapatnubayan ng pagpapahalaga. Sinusukat niya ang bitcoin laban sa gastos ng paggawa nito (Energy Value, Production Cost, na may Electrical Cost bilang sahig), tinatawiran ito ng mga sukatang on-chain gaya ng Yardstick, MVRV Z-score at Dynamic Range NVT, at sinusubaybayan ang pangangailangan ng institusyon laban sa pang-araw-araw na naminang suplay. Ipinangangalakal ito ng Capriole sa pamamagitan ng pinangalanang panloob na modelo — Trend King, Macro Index — at hayagan niyang sinasabi ang kanyang mga antas ng paghihiwalay.
Libre sa caprioleio.substack.com at sa X bilang @caprioleio; nasa capriole.com ang kompanya, at inilalathala ang kanyang mga indicator sa TradingView. Walang bayad na grupo ng senyas sa materyal na sinuri namin.
Sinusukat ni Edwards ang bitcoin gaya ng isang kalakal — magkano ang gastos gawin ito, at magkano ang halaga nito kumpara roon. Gaano kalapit ang iyong instinct? Sukatin ito nang totohanan gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon, gamitin ang iyong paraan. Subukan ang iyong kalamangan sa live na datos ng merkado — walang panganib sa kapital — sa isang libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may totoong premyo.
Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa mga materyal na bukas sa publiko — ang sarili niyang may-petsang post sa Substack at X, at may-petsang balita ng ibang partido, naka-link sa bawat tawag. Ang bawat sipi ay muling kinuha mula sa pinagmulan at itinugma nang tuwiran bago ilathala. Hindi ito payo sa pananalapi o pamumuhunan, at hindi rin ito pahayag tungkol sa performance ng pondo ng Capriole Investments, na hindi pampubliko. Tinatayang bilang lamang ang mga pigura at patuloy itong nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Charles? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 4 October 2026
