@BobLoukas
Ang taong naglagay ng pariralang “4-taong siklo ng Bitcoin” sa YouTube noong Disyembre 2018 — at nagpapatakbo ng pampublikong model portfolio laban dito. Hindi headline ang kinakalakal ni Loukas; kinakalakal niya kung nasaan ka sa siklo, nilalagyan ng petsa ang bawat update, at inilalathala ang mga pagbili. Kaya naman hindi pangkaraniwang madaling suriin ang kanyang record — kasama na ang yugto sa simula ng 2026 nang sabihin ng siklo na pababa at ibang sinabi ng presyo.
Sa madaling salita. Bob Loukas is a position trader with 30+ years in markets, founder of the membership site The Financial Tap, and the analyst most associated with Bitcoin's four-year cycle — a framework he traces to the cycle work of Walter Bressert and has applied to Bitcoin since 2018. His crypto analysis runs through a “4 Year Journey” model portfolio whose trades he posts publicly. The eight dated 2026 calls charted below split cleanly in two: his bearish first half was badly timed — a sub-$50,000 scenario that never came, and a “readying for another big leg lower” post published on the exact day of Bitcoin's March low — and then he caught the turn, calling the end of the counter-trend rally six days before the $82,018 May top, buying 10 BTC at $65,000 in June, and telling followers Bitcoin “isn't dead” at $60,990, which it now holds +37.9% above. In September he called for a break of that May high to confirm a new bull market, and it broke four days later. His cycle-low window of October–November 2026 has not arrived, and is logged open.
Si Bob Loukas ay position trader at tagapagtatag ng The Financial Tap, isang membership site na inilalarawan niya hindi bilang serbisyong pangkalakalan kundi bilang “tuloy-tuloy na edukasyon sa pamumuhunan”. Tiyak ang sarili niyang about page tungkol sa hugis ng operasyon: 30+ taon ng karanasan sa merkado, 52 lingguhang video update kada taon, isang model portfolio para sa mga miyembro, at base sa New York City. May pinangalanang lahi ang kanyang pamamaraan — kinikilala niya ang “pangunguna ng gawa ni Walter Bressert”, ang analyst ng siklo — at tinutukoy niya itong pag-aaral ng paulit-ulit at nasusukat na mga pattern sa presyo at panahon, hindi presyo lamang. Sinadyang hindi marangya ang idineklara niyang pilosopiya: “I'm a realist. There's no holy grail of trading.”
Hiwalay ang kanyang crypto work sa membership sa stocks/macro: inilalathala niya ang pagsusuri sa Bitcoin nang eksklusibo sa Bitcoin Live, isang third-party na plataporma, sa ilalim ng bandilang 4 Year Journey — isang pampublikong model portfolio na pinapatakbo laban sa apat na taong siklo. Nag-a-upload din siya ng libreng video update sa isang YouTube channel na may humigit-kumulang 150,000 subscriber, sa bilis na marahil anim kada taon, bawat isa'y may may-petsang pamagat (“It's Not Different This Time”, “Not Done Yet”, “ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd”). Ayon mismo sa kanya, ang kauna-unahang video sa YouTube tungkol sa 4-taong siklo ng Bitcoin ay kanya, noong Disyembre 2018. Ang kombinasyong iyon — bihira, may petsa, at nakatali sa isang inilathalang portfolio — ang nagpapasuri sa kanyang record.
May isang pagkakamaling dapat itala bago mo basahin ang tsart, dahil nasa labas mismo ito ng bintanang iginuhit dito at kaya't hindi maiiskor. Noong Hunyo 2025, sa Bitcoin na malapit sa $110,000, iminungkahi ni Loukas ang “double cycle blowoff” — dalawang magkatabing apat-na-taong taluktok na nagsasanib sa isa — at sinabing “if we've still got sort of a six to seven month expansion to a peak… that would lead us into maybe even a February or March peak”, na may pagdodoble patungong $150,000–$170,000. Sa halip, umabot ang Bitcoin sa taluktok na malapit sa $126,000 noong Oktubre 2025 at bumababa na noong Pebrero 2026. Malinaw niyang sinabing mga senaryong may probabilidad ito at hindi matitigas na call — ngunit hindi nangyari ang senaryo ng pagpapahaba na kanyang iminungkahi, at siya rin mismo ang nagsabi nito sa kamera kalaunan.
Sources: x.com/BobLoukas · his 4 Year Journey videos as reported by NewsBTC, Cointelegraph and U.Today · thefinancialtap.com · bitcoin.live/4yearcycle
Siklo higit sa ingay, sa mahabang orasan. Minamapa ni Loukas ang Bitcoin bilang apat na taong siklo na sinusukat sa mga linggo ng siklo, na may mas maiikling araw at lingguhang siklo sa loob, at may malakas na paunang palagay na natatapos ang mga siklo gaya ng dati: retest, mas mababang low, saka isang ilalim sa loob ng isang banda ng panahon. Gumagamit siya ng 10-linggo at 10-buwang moving average, ng mga antas na gitna ng siklo (ang $53,000 sa pahinang ito ang gitna ng buong apat na taong siklo), at ng mga sukdulan ng sentimyento. Isa siyang position trader — ang pagbili ng model portfolio noong Hunyo 2026 ang una sa tatlo't kalahating taon — kaya nasa alokasyon at pasensya ang kanyang bentahe, hindi sa entry. Makikita ang kahinaan sa mga call sa ibaba: ang balangkas na nagsasabing “laging may mas mababang low” ay istrukturang ginagawa kang maaga sa ilalim, at istrukturang ayaw aminin na nakatakda na ang ilalim.
Istrukturang bullish sa Bitcoin sa buong siklo — sa mga ibaba ng 2026 ay bumibili siya, hindi nagbebenta — ngunit hayagang bearish sa malawak na merkado ng altcoin, at inaasahan ang tunay na price discovery sa 2028 pa lamang.
Eight dated calls from 26 February to 18 September 2026, each charted against real price. Six are his own X posts, captured verbatim from X's syndication endpoint; two come from press reports of his dated video updates and were substring-matched against the live articles. He is a cycle analyst, so the calls are structural (“another big leg lower,” “the end of a counter trend move,” “$53,000 is the midpoint”) rather than tight entries — we judged them on what price actually did next. The arc is unusually clean and it is not flattering in order, so the three misses come first: he spent February to April bearish and early, then called the May top almost to the day, bought the June lows, and in September called for a break of the May high. His October–November cycle-low window has not arrived and the September break has not yet reached his $90,000s, so both are logged open.
“If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.”
Posted on 26 February — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $67,497 on 27 February. He floated a slide below $50,000 during March or April. It was framed as a possibility, not a target — but the path did not open. March and April never traded below $65,824, and even the eventual cycle low on 1 July only reached $58,566 (−13.2%). Price went the other way instead: from the anchor Bitcoin ran +28.3% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+24.6%). The verdict rests on the level he named, which the moving anchor cannot change.
𝕏 Post“…continues the downtrend to sub $50k” — @BobLoukas, 26 Feb 2026↗ x.com“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower.”
The worst-timed post on the page. U.Today reported the chart's target as roughly $49,000. He published it at $65,824 — which turned out to be the lowest price of March and April. Bitcoin rallied +13.5% to $74,679 within about a fortnight. A leg lower did eventually arrive, but not until July and only to $58,566 (−11.0%); $49,000 was never approached. Since the post Bitcoin has run +31.6% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+27.8%).
𝕏 Post“this weekly chart remains horrendous” — @BobLoukas, 2 Mar 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%, without Bitcoin doing anything extraordinary, highlights the broader promise of Crypto has mostly failed.”
A call that Bitcoin's share of the market had bottomed — i.e. altcoins would keep losing ground. This hub can't chart the dominance index, so we score it on Solana as the tradeable alt proxy, and on that measure it went against him: from $86, SOL dipped −27.7% to $62, then ran +38.2% to $119 and holds $115 (+33.7%). Bitcoin over the identical span is +10.2%, so the altcoin proxy has clearly outperformed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%” — @BobLoukas, 22 Apr 2026↗ x.com“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
From his 4 June video, published at $64,047: the cycle midpoint at $53,000 is where the model portfolio's remaining cash goes to reach a 100% allocation. His structural claim on the same call — “there's generally always a lower low” — did deliver: Bitcoin fell −8.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. But $53,000 never printed; price has since run +35.2% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+31.3%). His base case puts the cycle low in October or November 2026, which has not arrived, so this stays open by construction — although his own 18 September post, charted below, now talks about confirming a new bull market.
SourceVeteran Analyst Eyes $53,000 Bitcoin As Final Cycle Stage Begins — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.com“Bitcoin - Getting close now to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market. $85-$88k area.”
His best call, and the one that redeems the three above. At $79,826 he said the rally was a counter-trend bounce that was nearly finished. Bitcoin topped six days later at $82,018 (+2.7%) — the May high — and then fell −26.6% to $58,566. The $85–$88k zone he named was not reached in that move; Bitcoin only got there four months later, on 22 September, when it ran +8.5% to $86,597. It holds $84,107 (+5.4%). The level was off; the turn was right.
𝕏 Post“the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market” — @BobLoukas, 5 May 2026↗ x.com“The Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle Journey ‘Model Portfolio’ has made its first buy in 3.5yrs. Picking up 10BTC at $65,000.”
Not an opinion — a posted trade, and the model portfolio's first purchase since late 2022, taking it to roughly a 60% Bitcoin allocation. He was early, as his framework tends to make him: from the day's close of $66,727, price fell another −12.2% to $58,566 before turning. But it turned. Bitcoin has since run +29.8% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+26.0%). Judged as what it is — a cycle allocation, not an entry — it worked.
𝕏 Post“Picking up 10BTC at $65,000” — @BobLoukas, 3 Jun 2026↗ x.com“All the Bitcoin and Crypto FUD flooding the timeline is perfectly normal at this stage of a bear market. Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
Posted into peak capitulation at $60,990, six days before the cycle low. The drawdown after it was just −4.0% before Bitcoin ran +42.0% to $86,597; it holds $84,107 (+37.9%). One honest caveat: U.Today reported alongside this that he expected 3–5 months of sideways trade before a new cycle began in autumn; that part has not held, because price did not go sideways, it went up.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.” — @BobLoukas, 25 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Very good setup here for Bitcoin to smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market. More importantly, the recent 4-week consolidation means any solid push through the highs is very likely a fresh new move that has legs (vs a trap) that might not look back until the $90's. Failure to break through sets up a move back to the lows of the range.”
A conditional call, posted at $76,371: a clean break of the May high ($82,018) would be a real move with legs that “might not look back until the $90's”; failure would send price back to the lows of the range. The first half came fast — four days later Bitcoin closed at $86,597 (+13.4%), its first close above the May high — and it holds $84,107 (+10.1%). But the $90,000s have not printed, and a six-day-old break is not yet the move with legs he described, so this is logged open. It also marks a clear shift: in June the same model portfolio was waiting on $53,000.
𝕏 Post“smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market” — @BobLoukas, 18 Sep 2026↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Quotes are verbatim — X posts via the syndication endpoint, article quotes substring-matched against the live page, both linked on each card. The 22 April call is about Bitcoin dominance, which this hub cannot chart directly; we scored it against Solana as the tradeable altcoin proxy and say so on the card. His June 2025 “double cycle blowoff” miss pre-dates this window and is disclosed in the biography rather than scored here. The 26 February post has since aged out of the rolling price window, so its chart anchors on 27 February; its verdict rests on the $50,000 level he named, not the anchor.
Dalawang bayad na produkto, pareho'y subscription, at wala ni isa sa kanila'y signals group. Kapansin-pansin ang paghihiwalay: nasa sarili niyang site ang membership sa stocks/macro, samantalang ang lahat ng gawain sa Bitcoin — kabilang ang model portfolio na sinipi sa pahinang ito — ay nasa third-party na plataporma na hindi niya pag-aari.
Ang sarili niyang site: lingguhang video update (52 kada taon), model portfolio at nakasulat na ulat sa likod ng bayad na membership. Hayagan niyang ibinabalangkas ito bilang edukasyon sa pamumuhunan, hindi serbisyong pangkalakalan.
Sinasabi niyang inilalathala niya ang kanyang pagsusuri sa Bitcoin at crypto nang eksklusibo sa Bitcoin Live, kung saan naroon ang model portfolio na 4 Year Journey. Hinahati ang kita mula sa subscription doon sa isang platapormang hindi niya kontrolado — mahalagang malaman kapag ang isang call ay bintana rin ng tindahan.
Libre at bihira ang may-petsang video update — mga anim kada taon. Ito ang pampublikong mukha ng dalawang bayad na produkto, kaya basahin ang mga ito bilang argumento, hindi bilang buong libro. Walang token, kurso o exchange referral na lumitaw sa pampublikong talaan na aming sinuri.
“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
25 Jun 2026 · anim na araw bago ang cycle low“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous…”
02 Mar 2026 · inilathala mismo sa ilalim ng Marso–Abril“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
04 Jun 2026 · ang antas na hinihintay pa rin ng kanyang model portfolioMga sipi mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagkunan; mga pananaw na binanggit, hindi rekomendasyon.
Bihirang mag-post si Loukas sa YouTube — mga anim na beses kada taon — at nilalagyan niya ng petsa ang bawat video, at iyon ang nagpapagamit sa kanila bilang tala. Ito ang kanyang mga update sa loob ng bintana; ang video noong 4 Hunyo ang pinagmulan ng call na $53,000 sa pahinang ito. Tandaan: walang transcript na na-verify sa server na ito, kaya walang laman ng video ang iniiskor bilang call — mga sipi lamang ng pahayagan tungkol sa mga ito at ang sarili niyang mga post.
The Ebb and FlowHis most recent update, nine days before the 18 September post charted above.09 Sep 2026
Signs of a New MarketEarly-September update, posted two weeks before his call for a break of the May high.05 Sep 2026
ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAdAng video na may mapanuyang pamagat sa likod ng call na $53,000 na gitna ng siklo.04 Jun 2026
Not Done YetUpdate sa gitna ng pagbaba, mula sa yugtong bearish siya at maaga.16 Apr 2026
It's Not Different This TimeMuling paglalahad ng balangkas ng siklo habang umaandar ang pagbagsak ng 2026.05 Feb 2026Isang position trader na may 30+ taon sa mga merkado, tagapagtatag ng membership site na The Financial Tap, at ang analyst na pinakaiuugnay sa apat na taong siklo ng Bitcoin — sabi niya, kanya ang kauna-unahang video sa YouTube tungkol sa paksa, noong Disyembre 2018. Nakabase siya sa New York City at inilalathala ang kanyang pagsusuri sa Bitcoin sa Bitcoin Live sa ilalim ng bandilang “4 Year Journey”.
Isang balangkas ng timing, minana mula sa analyst ng siklo na si Walter Bressert, na minamapa ang Bitcoin bilang humigit-kumulang apat na taong siklo na sinusukat sa linggo, na may mas maiikling araw at lingguhang siklo sa loob. May malakas itong paunang palagay na natatapos ang siklo sa isang retest at hindi bababa sa isang mas mababang low sa loob ng banda ng panahon — na para sa 2026 ay inilagay niya sa mga Oktubre o Nobyembre.
Hindi pampublikong napatunayan. Ang kanyang ibinunyag na kita ay mula sa subscription ng The Financial Tap at Bitcoin Live, dagdag pa ang sarili niyang mga posisyon. Huwag pansinin ang anumang tiyak na numero — wala ni isang nakumpirma.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the 2026 record here is genuinely split: three misses in the first half of the year — including a bearish post published on the exact low of March and April — against a top call six days early, a posted buy at $65,000 on a day Bitcoin closed at $66,727, now +26.0%, and a contrarian bottom read that is +37.9%. His June 2025 call for a February–March 2026 cycle peak also missed. Treat it as a documented, dated opinion — never trade it blindly.
Sa tatlong lugar: libreng may-petsang video update sa YouTube (~150K subscriber, mga anim kada taon), ang sarili niyang bayad na membership site na The Financial Tap para sa stocks at macro, at Bitcoin Live — kung saan, ayon sa kanya, eksklusibong lumalabas ang kanyang pagsusuri sa Bitcoin at crypto, kabilang ang model portfolio na 4 Year Journey.
Orasan ang kinakalakal ni Loukas, hindi ang headline: ang kinalalagyan mo sa siklo ang nagtatakda ng alokasyon, at kayang manatiling tahimik ng model portfolio nang tatlo't kalahating taon. Gaano kalapit ang instinct mo — sukatin ito nang tunay gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon, gamitin ang sagot mo. Subukin ang iyong kalamangan sa live na datos ng merkado — walang kapital na nakataya — sa libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may tunay na premyo.
Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa mga materyales na bukas sa publiko — ang sarili niyang may-petsang mga post sa X, kinuhang salita-sa-salita, at may-petsang ulat ng pahayagan tungkol sa kanyang pampublikong video update, naka-link sa bawat call. Walang bayad na nilalaman ng The Financial Tap o Bitcoin Live ang na-access. Hindi ito payong pinansyal o pamumuhunan. Tinatayang halaga lamang ang mga numero at patuloy na nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Bob? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 24 September 2026
