@CryptoHayes
Co-founder ng BitMEX, ngayon ay CIO ng sarili niyang family office na Maelstrom — at ang pinaka-quotable na macro essayist sa crypto. Ang buong balangkas niya ay kasya sa isang pangungusap: ang dami ng fiat, hindi ang presyo ng pera, ang nagtatakda ng presyo ng Bitcoin. Inilalathala niya ito sa may-petsa, may-numero, at magaspang na mga sanaysay sa ilalim ng sarili niyang pangalan — kaya nga ito nasusuri.
Sa madaling salita. Arthur Hayes writes the crypto market's most-read macro newsletter, Crypto Trader Digest, and runs Maelstrom, the family office built on his BitMEX fortune. His thesis rarely changes: central banks and treasuries will keep creating fiat to fund deficits, wars and the AI build-out, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to that expansion. What changes — sometimes violently — is his timing. Across 2026 he swung from telling readers to sit on their hands, to declaring a new all-time high a “foregone conclusion” at a price Bitcoin would not see again for four months, to admitting in print four weeks later that he had erred, to calling the bottom almost to the day. He publishes both halves, which is more than most.
Ipinanganak si Hayes noong 1985, nagtapos ng ekonomiks sa Wharton noong 2008, at nag-trade ng equity derivatives sa Deutsche Bank bago lumipat sa Citigroup bilang delta one trader sa Hong Kong. Noong 2014 itinatag niya ang BitMEX kasama sina Ben Delo at Samuel Reed. Ang 100x perpetual swap ng exchange ang naging modelo ng leveraged trading sa crypto at nagpayaman nang husto sa tatlo.
Nauwi rin ito sa kasong kriminal. Kinasuhan ang tatlo noong Oktubre 2020, at si Hayes ay umamin noong Pebrero 2022 sa paglabag sa Bank Secrecy Act — hindi nagpatakbo ang BitMEX ng programa laban sa money laundering at know-your-customer habang naglilingkod sa mga kliyenteng Amerikano. Hinatulan siya ng anim na buwang house detention at dalawang taong probation at sumang-ayon siyang magbayad ng $10 milyon. Hindi siya nakulong. Pinatawad ni Pangulong Trump sina Hayes, Delo, at Reed noong huling bahagi ng Marso 2025. Anumang pagbasa sa mga sulatin niya tungkol sa patakarang monetaryo at regulasyon ay dapat magdala ng kasaysayang iyon.
Mula nang umalis sa BitMEX, pinamamahalaan niya ang Maelstrom, isang long-only na family-office na libro na may maagang posisyon sa mga token gaya ng Ethena at Ether.fi, at naglalathala ng Crypto Trader Digest tuwing isa hanggang tatlong linggo. Noong Agosto 2026 lumabas siya sa pagreretiro upang maging CEO ng Flop Labs, na nagbabalak ng token na FLOP bilang pera para sa compute ng mga AI agent — inanunsyo sa sarili niyang sanaysay noong 19 Agosto, na may testnet airdrop na humigit-kumulang 20% ng suplay at walang pre-sale. Ngayon siya ay isang operator na may ilulunsad na token, hindi lamang komentarista.
Sources: cryptohayes.substack.com · x.com/CryptoHayes · dated public interviews and press
Top-down liquidity, expressed through derivatives. Hayes starts from the plumbing — Treasury issuance and buybacks, the Fed's balance sheet, bank credit creation, the BOJ and the yen carry trade, Chinese lending — and treats Bitcoin as the fastest-reacting claim on total fiat supply. He states it plainly: he believes the quantity of money determines Bitcoin's price, not the interest rate. His book is long-only and large, so he expresses caution by refusing to add rather than by going short, and hedges with put spreads and options rather than selling spot. The strength is the framework: he was structurally right that liquidity would expand, and his essays name the mechanism before the market prices it. The weakness is entry timing — a framework that says “eventually” gets used to justify buying anything, and in May 2026 it put him at maximum conviction on a high that held for four months.
Estrukturang napaka-bullish: inaasahan niyang bibilis ang pagbaba ng halaga ng fiat at sinasabi niyang nasa maximum risk ang Maelstrom. Basahin ang bilang bilang kumpiyansa sa direksyon, hindi sa timing — ipinapakita ng sarili niyang tala sa 2026 na dalawa itong magkaibang suliranin.
Nine dated calls taken from his own newsletter, not from press paraphrase — his words, his publication dates, charted against real price. Ten Crypto Trader Digest essays fall inside our price window; these are the ones containing an actual BTC or ETH call. The shape of the year is worth stating up front: his best calls were the ones with no number in them. Two bottom calls landed almost to the day. The one time he named a target and a date-free certainty — “retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion” — he published it on 11 May 2026, at a price Bitcoin did not close above again until 22 September — and the levels he named, $90,000 and $126,000, have still not come.
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
He deliberately refused to pick a side — either the fall from $126,000 to $60,000 was the whole move, or Bitcoin dumps further — and told readers to de-leverage and wait for a Fed all-clear. Both halves are still unresolved. The essay now predates our price window, which begins 8 March, so the chart anchors at $67,340 rather than his publication-day price. From there BTC fell −13.0% to $58,566 on 1 July, ran +28.6% to $86,597 on 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+25.6%). So waiting has cost money, but the drawdown he warned about did arrive. Logged open: the AI banking crisis this essay is built on has not happened in the seven and a half months since.
SourceThis Is Fine — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Two things he got right at $74,297: the spike he flagged landed inside his band — BTC printed $82,018 on 11 May, +10.4% — and declining to deploy fresh money was right through the summer, because price then fell −21.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. The later recovery went back into his band, to $86,597 on 22 September (+16.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+13.8%). The miss belongs on the same card: in this essay he wrote that he hoped Bitcoin could hold $60,000 in a crash. It did not. BTC closed at $58,566 on 1 July.
SourceNo Trade Zone — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
This is the one that matters. He called a new all-time high a foregone conclusion, said he expected the rally to turn explosive after punching through $90,000, and said he would take Maelstrom's book to maximum risk — and he published it at $82,018, a close Bitcoin did not see again for more than four months. It fell −28.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. The recovery finally cleared his entry in late September, peaking at $86,597 on 22 September (+5.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+3.1%) — but $90,000 has still not been reached, and $126,000 has not been retaken. It stays went against: neither level he named has arrived, and anyone who followed him in sat up to 28.6% under water before getting back to roughly flat. He recanted 28 days later, in writing — see the next call.
SourceThe Butterfly Touch — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
Written at $63,274, and it happened in exactly that sequence: BTC dumped −7.4% to $58,566 on 1 July, then pumped +36.9% to $86,597 by 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+33.7%). The same essay contains the sentence most commentators never write — “Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.” Marked played out on price, and worth noting for the correction.
SourceReality Test — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise.”
Close to exact. From $63,465, the lowest close that followed was $62,844 on 17 August — just −1.0% below him — before a +36.4% run to $86,597 on 22 September; BTC holds $84,580 (+33.3%). The caveat is on the card because it is in the same essay: his guessed levels were too low. He floated a $60,000 to $70,000 chop with $50,000 downside, and Bitcoin instead broke out above his range within a month and never came close to $50,000. Right on direction, wrong on the numbers.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
His first hard number with a real deadline, and it is still live — 31 December 2026 is under three months out. His own “~2.6x” checks against our data: ETH was $1,859 when he wrote it. It has since run +49.3% to $2,775 on 22 September and holds $2,681 (+44.2%). But $5,000 needs roughly another +87% from here, so he is well behind pace. Logged open, not credited — and note that on 2 September he restated the same end-of-2026 Ether target at $10,000, which is a later call on this page.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Whether Bessent pumps fast or slow, Bitcoin will continue its rally.”
His position then: Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt are the new liquidity tap, the next bull market “just began”, and Maelstrom is back at maximum risk. From the $77,712 he wrote at, BTC first slipped −2.7% to $75,590 on 16 September, then ran +11.4% to $86,597 on 22 September — the highest close in our price window — and holds $84,580 (+8.8%). That is the rally continuing, as he said, with a shallow dip on the way. Marked played out as a direction call; he named no target. One disclosure: we date this to the essay's own timestamp of 24 August. Press covering it called it his 25 August essay; anchored to the 25th ($78,974) the call reads −4.3% at the dip, +9.7% at the high and +7.1% now — the same verdict.
SourceSame Same But Different — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Maelstrom’s preferred cryptos haven’t changed. Our structural Bitcoin long will anchor the portfolio. The more speculative short-term end of 2026 bets are still Ether ($10k price target), Ethena ($0.5 price target), and Ether.fi ($2 price target).”
Read the word still carefully. Four weeks earlier he put his end-of-2026 Ether target at $5,000; here he writes that nothing has changed and prints $10,000 — the number quietly doubled while the deadline stayed 31 December 2026. We log it as its own call rather than an edit of the older one. ETH was $2,418 the day he published, dipped −1.1% to $2,391 on 3 September, ran +14.8% to $2,775 on 22 September, and holds $2,681 (+10.9%). $10,000 needs roughly another +273% in under three months. Logged open, and it is the most demanding number on this page.
SourceAtención — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“This essay should give one confidence that the choppy nature of the crypto markets post the late August mini-pump will end soon. The amount of dollars in the system will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and selected shitcoins will rise in in price.”
His newest essay argues that if the leading AI labs slow down under a “Safety First” banner, the debt that financed their compute goes bad — much of it, he says, sitting on US insurers' books — and Washington must either become the compute buyer of last resort or print money for a bailout. “Either way, we as Bitcoin holders and crypto investors win.” (The doubled “in in” is in the original.) The chart anchors at $81,169 for 21 September; the next daily point is $86,597 (+6.7%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+4.2%). Do not credit him with that jump: he published at 23:07 UTC and our daily points are taken at midnight UTC, so much of the move may have happened before he wrote. Anchored to 22 September instead, the call reads −2.3% now. Twelve days old and with no level named, it is logged open.
SourceSafety First — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.comAng mga resulta ay aming pagbasa sa idineklara niyang posisyon laban sa tunay na presyo, hindi ang sarili niyang pagmamarka. Bawat sipi ay salita-por-salitang tiniyak laban sa pahina ng sanaysay na naka-link dito, at bawat sanaysay ay kinuha nang dalawang beses upang maalis ang posibilidad ng sirang pagkuha. Ang mga presyo at porsyento ay mula sa parehong serye ng CoinGecko na pinagbatayan ng mga chart. Ang marka ng mga tawag na wala pang isang buwan ay maaaring magbago — at magbabago.
Hindi nagbebenta ng signals o kurso si Hayes, at libre niyang ibinibigay ang newsletter — pero isa siya sa pinakamaraming conflict of interest na boses sa crypto, at malaki ang ipinagbago ng mga ito noong Agosto 2026. Karamihan ay siya mismo ang naglalantad; narito silang lahat sa isang lugar.
Pinamamahalaan niya ang isang long-only na portfolio ng family office na pinondohan ng yaman niya sa BitMEX, na may inilantad na posisyon sa Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, at Ether.fi. Kapag isinulat niyang lumilipat siya sa “maximum risk”, inilalarawan niya ang mga trade na naipasok na niya. Palaging iisa ang tinuturo ng mga sanaysay at ng libro niya.
Mula 18–19 Agosto 2026 siya ang CEO ng Flop Labs at inilulunsad ang FLOP, isang token para sa compute ng mga AI agent, na may binabalak na testnet airdrop na humigit-kumulang 20% ng suplay at genesis block na tinutumbok sa 2027. Sabi niya, sarili niyang pondo ito, walang pre-sale at walang alokasyon sa VC. Gayunpaman, isa siyang komentarista na humuhula ng liquidity boom habang naghahanda siyang maglabas ng token sa gitna nito.
Itinatag niya ang exchange na nagpasikat sa 100x leverage, umamin noong 2022 sa paglabag sa Bank Secrecy Act, nagbayad ng $10 milyon, nagsilbi ng anim na buwang house detention at dalawang taong probation, at pinatawad ni Pangulong Trump noong Marso 2025. Ngayon ay malawak siyang sumusulat tungkol sa patakarang monetaryo at pulitika ng US. Timbangin ninyo iyon ayon sa inyong pagtingin.
“Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.”
08 Jun 2026 · inaamin ang pagkakamali noong Mayo, nakasulat“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
11 May 2026 · published at a high that held four months“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
08 Jun 2026 · ang tawag na tumama, at ayon sa pagkakasunodAng mga sipi ay mula sa sarili niyang pampublikong pinagmulan; mga sinabing pananaw, hindi rekomendasyon.
Sanaysay ang inilalathala ni Hayes sa halip na video, kaya ang mahahabang paglabas niya ay mga keynote at panauhing panayam sa channel ng iba. Mga bago at may-petsang halimbawa, ang bawat petsa ay kinumpirma sa pahina ng video:
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin 2026 Keynote: 21 Weeks LaterKeynote sa Bitcoin Magazine — ang digmaan sa Iran, pagkawala ng trabaho dahil sa AI, at ang Fed.27 Apr 2026
The AI Trade Is Killing Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Breaks It DownPanayam ng Cointelegraph, ilang araw matapos ang pagbaliktad niya sa Reality Test.12 Jun 2026
Bitcoin to $200K And AI Is the Next 2008 | Arthur HayesCoin Bureau Podcast — buong tesis ng pagsabog ng credit ng AI.21 Aug 2026
The Godfather Of Crypto Trading: My Final Warning To Bitcoin HoldersAltcoin Daily — kasalukuyan niyang paninindigan sa liquidity at leverage.23 Aug 2026Si Arthur Hayes ay isang Amerikanong mamumuhunan at essayist, ipinanganak noong 1985. Nag-trade siya ng equity derivatives sa Deutsche Bank at Citigroup bago itatag ang crypto derivatives exchange na BitMEX noong 2014 kasama sina Ben Delo at Samuel Reed. Ngayon ay pinamamahalaan niya ang family office na Maelstrom bilang CIO, sinusulat ang newsletter na Crypto Trader Digest, at mula Agosto 2026 ay CEO siya ng Flop Labs.
Hindi. Kinasuhan siya noong Oktubre 2020 at umamin noong Pebrero 2022 sa paglabag sa Bank Secrecy Act, dahil tumakbo ang BitMEX nang walang programa laban sa money laundering at know-your-customer habang naglilingkod sa mga kliyenteng Amerikano. Hinatulan siya ng anim na buwang house detention at dalawang taong probation at nagbayad ng $10 milyon. Hindi siya nakulong, at pinatawad siya ni Pangulong Trump noong huling bahagi ng Marso 2025.
Hindi pampublikong napatutunayan. Malawak siyang inilalarawan bilang bilyonaryo dahil sa bahagi niya sa BitMEX, at may malalaking posisyon sa crypto ang family office niyang Maelstrom, pero walang kumpirmadong bilang. Ituring na tantiya ang anumang tiyak na numerong makikita mo, hindi katotohanan.
His direction has been more reliable than his timing. On this page his two bottom calls — 8 June and 4 August 2026 — landed almost to the day, while his most confident target call, published 11 May 2026, came at a price Bitcoin did not close above again for four months, and its $90,000 and $126,000 levels have not been reached. He is also not a neutral observer: he runs a long-only crypto book and is launching his own token. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Ipinapangatwiran niyang ang dami ng fiat, hindi ang interest rate, ang nagtatakda ng presyo ng Bitcoin — kaya sinusubaybayan niya ang paglalabas at muling pagbili ng Treasury, ang balance sheet ng Fed, ang paglikha ng kredito ng bangko, ang yen carry trade, at ang pagpapautang ng Tsina, at pagkatapos ay may hawak siyang long-only na libro na pinalalaki o pinaliliit niya ayon sa pagbasang iyon. Ipinapakita niya ang pag-iingat sa pamamagitan ng pagtanggi na magdagdag sa halip na mag-short, at nagha-hedge gamit ang options at put spreads.
Isang ideya lang ang ini-trade ni Hayes — parating pa ang mas maraming fiat — at malaki ang taya niya. Gaano kalapit ang instinct mo? Sukatin ito nang totoo gamit ang Trader Passport.
Ngayon, gamitin mo na ang paraan mo. Subukin ang kalamangan mo sa live na datos ng merkado — walang panganib sa kapital — sa isang libreng torneo ng BuyCrypt na may tunay na premyo.
Pang-impormasyon at pang-edukasyong pagsusuri na mahigpit na nakabatay sa mga pampublikong materyal — pangunahin ang sarili niyang may-petsang mga sanaysay sa newsletter, naka-link sa bawat tawag na sinusuportahan nito. Hindi ito payo sa pananalapi o pamumuhunan. Tinatayang mga numero at patuloy na nagbabago. Spotted an error, or are you Arthur? Mag-submit ng pagwawasto →
Napatunayang mga handle · Mga pinagkunan na binanggit sa itaas · Pamamaraan ng pagmamarka · Na-update 3 October 2026
