@MerlijnTrader
Holenderskie konto wykresowe, które publikuje jedną myśl naraz, kapitalikami i z jednym opisanym wykresem: ten rok rymuje się z 2018 / 2022 / 2017, a oto poziom, który o tym zdecyduje. Duża częstotliwość, bardzo czytelnie i — co w tym gatunku rzadkie — prawie zawsze z liczbą, którą można później sprawdzić. Sprawdziliśmy.
W skrócie. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn publikuje jako @MerlijnTrader do około 380 000 obserwujących, przy znacznie mniejszym kanale na YouTube (16.2K subskrybentów, aktywny od czerwca 2021, ~1,1 mln wyświetleń łącznie), gdzie ta sama dzienna teza wraca w formie wideo. Konto na X nosi odznakę afiliacji z @cryptorover — biznesową etykietę Crypto Rover — więc oba konta znajdują się w tej samej operacji medialnej, a nie są niezależnymi głosami, które przypadkiem się zgadzają. Jego kanał na YouTube stawia sprawę jasno: „The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, dokumentowane na żywo.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
Analiza techniczna oparta na fraktalach. Silnikiem jest analogia: znaleźć dawny rok, którego wykres wygląda jak ten (2017, 2018, 2022), założyć, że struktura się powtórzy, i wskazać poziom, który to potwierdzi. Wokół tego używa faz akumulacji Wyckoffa (spring, mark-up), przecięć średnich kroczących, Stochastic RSI, panelu ~30 wskaźników szczytu cyklu oraz nagłówków on-chain i makro (kolejki wyjścia walidatorów, oczekiwania wobec stóp Fed, wnioski ETF) jako potwierdzenia. Siłą jest falsyfikowalność — deklaruje liczby w rodzaju „$60K is the decision” albo „DCA zone $48–59K”. Słabością jest druga strona tej samej obietnicy: gdy analog się nie powtarza, wniosek nie jest po prostu przedwczesny, lecz odwrotny, a jego posty prawie nigdy nie podają czytelnikowi wielkości pozycji ani ceny unieważnienia.
Strukturalnie byczy — powracający wniosek brzmi: dno już było, a tłum je sprzedał. Niedźwiedzie posty w tej próbce są krótkoterminowe i warunkowe; bycze są tezą.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under wskazany poziom. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
To najważniejsza część akt, gdy mówimy o koncie wykresowym o dużej częstotliwości: publiczny biznes Merlijna to uwaga i promocja, sprzedawane z tego samego profilu, który publikuje analizy. Nic z tego nie jest ukryte — wszystko jest na jego własnej stronie z linkami — ale powinno stać obok wykresów.
Jego publiczna strona z linkami sprzedaje „TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” i zaprasza do wiadomości „for Business/Partnerships”. Projekty mogą więc kupić zasięg u tego samego konta, które publikuje analizy rynkowe. Zakładaj, że każdy token lub serwis wspomniany w poście może być relacją handlową, o ile nie powiedziano inaczej.
Ta sama strona przedstawia go jako konsultanta i business coacha z ofertą „Book a Strategy Call” — publiczność zamieniona na honoraria, co nagradza objętość publikacji i pewność siebie, a nie ostrożność.
Jego konto na X nosi odznakę afiliacji z @cryptorover. Dwa konta z jednej operacji zgadzające się ze sobą to nie dwa niezależne potwierdzenia — licz raz, nie dwa razy.
Jego kanał na YouTube określa projekt jako „turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, dokumentowany na żywo. To ujawnienie, nie konflikt — ale oznacza strukturalnie byczy portfel bitcoinowy za strukturalnie byczymi postami o Bitcoinie.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · mapa, która chybiła w obu członach“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · cztery dni przed faktycznym dnem ETH“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · linia krzyża śmierci, która pękła bez krachuCytaty pochodzą z własnych publicznych źródeł; to wyrażone opinie, nie rekomendacje.
Publikuje niemal codzienne filmy o Bitcoinie na kanale znacznie mniejszym, niż sugeruje jego zasięg na X. Najnowsze wgrania, daty z kanału:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge MistakeKrótkoterminowy zjazd, długoterminowy byk — dokładnie ta postawa, którą obrazuje to dossier.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes NextFraktal 2022, na którym opiera się większość jego wołań z 2026.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY BegunBycza teza cyklu, postawiona bez poziomu.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson HoleRama makro przed sierpniowym rajdem.28 Aug 2026Holenderski analityk wykresów kryptowalut, który publikuje jako @MerlijnTrader do około 380 000 obserwujących na X, przy mniejszym kanale na YouTube (16.2K subskrybentów). Jego nazwisko nie jest publiczne. Znany jest z postów kapitalikami z jednym wykresem, porównujących obecny rynek do dawnego roku — 2017, 2018, 2022 — i wskazujących jeden poziom, który decyduje o wyniku.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Sprzedaje promocję otwarcie: jego publiczna strona z linkami wymienia „TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”, zachęca do wiadomości biznesowych i partnerskich oraz oferuje płatne rozmowy strategiczne. Jego konto na X nosi też odznakę afiliacji z @cryptorover. Zakładaj, że wymieniony projekt może być relacją handlową, o ile nie zaznaczono inaczej.
Analogia fraktalna plus jeden poziom decyzyjny. Nakłada strukturę wykresu z dawnego roku na teraźniejszość — akumulacja Wyckoffa, złoty i śmiertelny krzyż, Stochastic RSI, panel ~30 sygnałów szczytu cyklu — a potem deklaruje liczbę w rodzaju „$60K is the decision” albo „DCA zone $48–59K”. To czyni go łatwym do sprawdzenia; oznacza też, że gdy analog zawodzi, wniosek jest odwrotny, a nie po prostu przedwczesny.
Merlijn handluje przez analogię: znaleźć rok, który kopiuje ten wykres, a potem broni jednego poziomu. Jak blisko jest twój instynkt — zmierz to naprawdę z Trader Passport.
Tak czy inaczej, jedyny uczciwy test jest na żywo. Sprawdź swoje odczytanie na realnych danych rynkowych — bez ryzyka kapitału — w darmowym turnieju BuyCrypt z prawdziwymi nagrodami.
Analiza informacyjno-edukacyjna zbudowana wyłącznie z materiałów publicznych: jego własnych datowanych postów na X, uchwyconych dosłownie razem ze znacznikami czasu i podlinkowanych przy każdym wołaniu, oraz jego publicznego kanału i strony z linkami. Nie stanowi porady finansowej ani inwestycyjnej. Liczby są przybliżone i stale się zmieniają. Spotted an error, or are you Merlijn? Zgłoś poprawkę →
Zweryfikowane konta · Źródła cytowane powyżej · Metodologia oceniania · Zaktualizowano 29 September 2026
