@willywoo
The analyst who made “on-chain” a category. Woo doesn't read candles — he reads where money actually moves: investor flows, realised prices, the cost basis of recent buyers. Through most of 2026 that model kept him bearish while the rest of crypto looked for a bottom, and the price mostly agreed with him. Where it didn't, it didn't by a wide margin — his 46k–54k bottom zone never printed. In September, with long-term liquidity returning, he turned: on 16 September he put 90% odds on the bottom being in.
简而言之。 Willy Woo is one of the original Bitcoin on-chain analysts — creator of the NVT ratio (“Bitcoin's P/E”), publisher of the Woobull chart library, and author of the weekly Bitcoin Vector Lite letter on Substack. His framework is deliberately not technical analysis: he models investor liquidity flows and compares price against on-chain cost bases (short-term-holder price, realised price, the CVDD floor) to say where the market is in its cycle. For most of 2026 that model made him one of the most consistently bearish major voices — and, for the levels that mattered, largely right: he called the March rally a bull trap and it was rejected exactly where he said. He is also on record with targets that never arrived, from $250k in 2021 to a 46k–54k bottom this year — a zone he effectively retired in September, when he called the bottom in at 90% odds.
Woo 是从软件行业走进市场的——公开资料把他描述为一位生于香港、在新西兰长大的程序员，在转做交易前曾创建并出售创业公司，并于 2013 年末买入第一枚比特币。让他成名的不是某笔交易，而是一个指标：2017 年他普及了 NVT 比率，即网络价值除以交易量，并把它称作「Bitcoin's P/E ratio」。它成为第一个被广泛使用的链上估值工具，而围绕它生长起来的 Woobull 图表库至今仍是标准参考。如今他每周在 Substack 发布《Bitcoin Vector Lite》——「views into BTC's underlying structure through the lens of investor flows」——后面还有一层付费内容。
The record cuts both ways and the misses are large. On 29 April 2021 he told SALT Talks that Bitcoin “could reach $250K to $300K by the end of that cycle”, later stretching it to $300K–$400K on institutional inflows; Bitcoin topped near $69,000 that November. In September 2025, with BTC just off a $124,457 record, he suggested it “could race up to $140,000–$160,000” — while adding he couldn't tell. It never did. And on 11 January 2026 he posted “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026”: the bearish half aged well, the bullish half did not — Bitcoin fell from $89,212 on 29 January to $67,017 by 1 March, −25% straight through the window he was bullish on. That January post sits just outside the chart below; the seven calls that follow are all inside it.
Sources: x.com/willywoo (verified via X syndication) · woobull.com · willywoo.substack.com · Bitcoin.com News · Yahoo Finance
先看资金流，再看价格。Woo 的分析单位是资本而不是蜡烛：多少真金白银正在流入或流出比特币，以及这与它本应支撑的价格动能是否匹配。反复出现的工具是链上成本基础——短期持有者价格（过去 155 天买家的盈亏平衡点）、已实现价格和 CVDD 底——再加上他自己的投资者资金流模型，以及对跨资产风险（股票波动率、宏观流动性）的一瞥。这给了他结构感和耐心：他会说「Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation」，而且是认真的。弱点是对称的。资金流模型擅长判断状态（熊市还是牛市），不擅长判断幅度——他的方向性判断比附在上面的具体数字站得住脚得多。
Bearish on 2026 from January through the summer — his flow models had liquidity waning against price since January 2025. September is where that changed. On 6 September 2026 he flagged Bitcoin decoupling from equities as it did in 2015, and on 16 September he put the probability that the bottom is in at 90%, calling the market an early bull structure on returning long-term investor liquidity. His longer view is unchanged: Bitcoin in seven figures, but over a 12–16 year horizon.
Seven dated 2026 posts, charted against real price from the day he said them. Every quote below was pulled from X's own syndication endpoint or from the dated article that carries it — nothing is paraphrased. Woo trades in regimes and levels rather than one-line targets, so each card scores the specific claim he made: did the rejection happen where he said, did the level break, did the bottom print in the zone. He was right on the shape of the market in Feb–April and wrong on how deep it would go; the two newest cards, from September, are the first in this window pointing up — ending with his call that the bottom is in.
“This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.”
A three-part call, and all three parts happened. His 27 February post has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors at the first covered close, $65,824 on 2 March, and the percentages here run from there. Bitcoin consolidated sideways for roughly a month, rebounded into the mid-70s — $74,679 on 17 March, +13.5% — and was rejected there, back to $65,947 (+0.2%) by 30 March. It later fell as far as $58,566 (−11.0%), then ran +31.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+28.2%). The typo in “repreive” is his; we quote posts as written.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 27 February 2026↗ x.com“BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s which is the cost basis of short term investors.”
Resolved — on his terms, but late. The framing was right: he said the rally was a bull trap and “NOT me saying the bottom is in”, and from $67,340 BTC rallied, rolled over and cut to $58,566 (−13.0%) on 1 July. The target took far longer than the setup implied. The May rally stalled at $82,018 (+21.8%), and the mid-80s short-term-holder cost basis he named was only tested on 22 September, at $86,597 (+28.6%) — six and a half months after the post, with a deeper low in between. Both halves have now happened, so we move this card from open to played out; price holds $84,359 (+25.3%).
Source‘Bull Trap Forming’ — Willy Woo Says Bottom Not In for Bitcoin (Bitcoin.com News, 9 Mar 2026)↗ news.bitcoin.com“I’d agree with this picture with the rejection at STH price which is 84k and dropping each day. Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation.”
He named the level and the duration. BTC was $71,304; it was rejected immediately, down to $65,947 (−7.5%) in four days, and the “mid bear consolidation” ran for months rather than weeks. Through that whole stretch it never reached the 84k short-term-holder line he flagged as the ceiling — the summer high was $82,018 (+15.0%) on 11 May — before sliding to $58,566 (−17.9%) on 1 July. Bitcoin only closed above 84k on 22 September, six months later; it ran +21.4% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+18.3%). The call was about the spring, and on that horizon the level held.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 26 March 2026↗ x.com“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.”
His most specific number, and the one that has gone wrong. From $65,947 he was pointing 18–30% lower, with the CVDD floor model at 45.5k. Bitcoin never got there. The deepest close since is $58,566 on 1 July, −11.2% from his post and 8.5% above the top of his zone — and price has since run +31.3% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+27.9%). A fresh leg down could still validate it, but on 16 September Woo himself put 90% odds on the bottom already being in (last card below), which leaves this zone with few defenders.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 30 March 2026↗ x.com“The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.”
A conditional call, and the condition failed the way he warned it might. BTC was $77,367. It did break 79k — the 30% branch — peaking at $82,018 (+6.0%) on 11 May. But he had added that a structural bottom only becomes likely “if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65K and not break down”, and that “the next 3-6 weeks will be telling”. It broke down: nine weeks later Bitcoin closed at $58,566, −24.3%. No structural bottom in that window, exactly as he framed it. Price has since run +11.9% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+9.0%).
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 28 April 2026↗ x.com“It's almost been a decade since the last time this happened... The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).”
The first constructive post of the whole window. BTC closed at $79,822, near the top of the range it broke into in late August — up from $69,291 on 20 August. Read the claim precisely: it is not a price target but a regime analogue, equities and Bitcoin pulling apart the way they did in 2015, which he labels the prelude to the 2017 bull market. Price dipped to $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September, then ran +8.5% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+5.7%). That leans his way, but three weeks cannot settle a claim about a multi-year decoupling. It also sits awkwardly beside his own 46k–54k bottom call above, and we will not reconcile the two for him. Open until price picks a side for longer.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 6 September 2026↗ x.com“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.”
The turn, stated as a number. BTC closed at $75,590 that day, then ran +14.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+11.6%). Read the claim precisely: it is not that $75k was the low, but that the cycle bottom is already behind the market — on this chart that is $58,566 on 1 July, 8.5% above the top of the 46k–54k zone he pointed to in March, which this post quietly retires. He gave no time frame and no invalidation level. As of 27 September price agrees with him; a close back under the July low would settle it against him. Open.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 16 September 2026↗ x.com结论是我们依据 CoinGecko 真实价格对他明确主张的解读，不是他本人的评分。价格为收盘价；「之后最低」指从该判断到今天之间的最低收盘价。随着周期演进，「仍未定」的标记可能翻转——底部区间的判断只有在周期真正结束时才算最终错误。
Woo 卖的是研究，不是信号或代币——这比本目录里大多数人的结构都干净。但它仍然制造了一个值得点明的激励：一份关于寻找周期底部的付费通讯，在底部尚未到来时最有价值。
Substack 上的 Bitcoin Vector Lite 免费并设有付费层级；更深的资金流模型在付费墙之后。订阅是看得见的生意。
woobull.com 和 NVT 比率多年来一直免费——它们既是漏斗顶端，也是他之所以被引用的原因。
这才是真正要紧的披露。2023 年 5 月，Syz Group 宣布推出 SyzCrest Digital Uncorrelated——一只由银行支持、与 Woo 及 CMCC Global 共同发起的加密对冲基金——并称他为 CMCC Global & Crest Fund 的管理合伙人、Ama 基金顾问及 S2F Fund 的普通合伙人；公开资料还列出他在加密公司的种子轮投资。这些职务出自 2023 年的报道，我们尚未确认其中哪些仍然有效。持仓不会逐帖披露，因此请把任何具体判断都视为可能与一个你看不见的账本一致。
“BTC MOVES TO A 6-8 YEAR CYCLE? BTC has been locked into the gravity of a 4 year orbit... it was subject to strong internal forces of its halvening... a clockwork 4yr supply rate shock. Meanwhile TradFi is on a 6-8 year short term debt cycle.”
03 Sep 2026 · 一条帖子讲完他的整套框架“3 things happen at the end of bear markets. 1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles). 2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price 3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)”
05 Apr 2026 · 熊市之年底下的长周期视角“I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.”
05 Apr 2026 · 对了一半——看多的那一半差了 25%“I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.”
11 Jan 2026 · half right — the bullish half missed by 25%引述均来自他公开视频；为其陈述观点，非投资建议。
Woo 用文字发布，而不是面对镜头——Woobull 图表和每周的 Bitcoin Vector Lite 通讯。他的视频记录都是别人的播客。代表性亮相：
Bitcoin Needs To Adapt Now | With Willy WooLook Into Bitcoin——录于上方 46k–54k 底部判断之后几天。10 Apr 2026
The Bull Market, Institutional Adoption & 2026 Recession? | Willy WooWhat Bitcoin Did——他最早把 2026 年设定为周期真正考验的地方。26 Aug 2025
Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possibleLess Noise More Signal——下行情景，在他真正用上它的半年前。25 Sep 2025
Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The EndgameThe Wolf Of All Streets——与 Scott Melker 同场，后者的档案也在本目录中。14 Sep 2025一位比特币链上分析师，最为人知的是普及了 NVT 比率——网络价值除以交易量，被称作「Bitcoin's P/E ratio」——以及 Woobull 图表库。他在 Substack 撰写每周的 Bitcoin Vector Lite 通讯，在 X 上约有 110 万关注者，如今以 @willywoo 发帖（原为 @woonomic）。
For most of 2026 he was bearish: his on-chain models pointed to a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, with the CVDD floor near $45,500 when he said it in March. That zone has not printed — Bitcoin's lowest close since was $58,566 on 1 July. On 16 September 2026 he reversed, putting the probability that the bottom is in at 90% and calling the market an early bull structure. Separately, he has floated a much longer-horizon view of Bitcoin trading sideways for 8–12 years before a move to seven figures.
有对有错，而且模式一贯：方向上强，幅度上弱。在本窗口内，他 2 月的拒绝判断和 3 月的阻力位都精确兑现，而他 4 月「构成底部的要素尚未到位」的解读被一轮 24% 的下跌所印证。但他 $46k–$54k 的底部区间从未到来，他 2021 年 $250k–$300k 的目标偏离约四倍，而他 2026 年 1 月那条帖子——「I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026」——把看多的那一半直接送进了 25% 的跌幅。
Woo 最知名的指标：比特币的网络价值（市值）除以链上转移的美元价值。读数高意味着价格已跑在网络经济使用之前；读数低则相反。他把它作为股票市盈率的链上对应物引入，并由此打开了整个链上分析领域的大门。
Woo 无视蜡烛、追随资金——资金流、成本基础，以及在数月盘整中按兵不动的耐心。你的直觉离他有多近？用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
