@fundstrat
财经电视上被引用最多的多头——也是少数会附上一个数字和一个日期的人。李在联合创办 Fundstrat 之前主管 J.P. Morgan 的股票策略，如今他担任一家 Ethereum 金库公司的董事长，同时喊出 Bitcoin 25 万美元。正是这种组合，让他的战绩值得被画成图表——也值得在利益冲突摆在明面上的前提下阅读。
简而言之。 Tom Lee is a Wall Street strategist, not a crypto trader: Chief Equity Strategist at J.P. Morgan from 2007 to 2014, then co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, and since 30 June 2025 chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies — a company whose entire business is holding Ethereum. He is on CNBC constantly, he gives round-number targets, and he almost never gives an invalidation level. Charted over the last seven months the pattern is consistent and unflattering in a specific way: he is early, repeatedly and expensively. He called the end of crypto winter in February, again in March, again in May — the actual bottom was 1 July. But when the market finally broke, on 26 June, he refused to abandon the thesis within 2% of the low. In September he went further — a crypto bull market “underway”, Ethereum to a new high this year — and those calls are still open. Eleven dated calls here: 3 played out, 5 still open, 3 went against him.
李在沃顿商学院取得 BSE 学位，主修金融与会计，是 CFA 持证人，走的是一条常规的卖方路线：Salomon Smith Barney 的董事总经理，随后是 2007 至 2014 年 J.P. Morgan 首席股票策略师。Fundstrat 自家的团队页面写道，自 1998 年起他每年都位居 Institutional Investor 榜单前列。2014 年他联合创办独立研究机构 Fundstrat Global Advisors，出任研究主管；他同时是 Fundstrat Capital 的首席投资官，其“Granny Shots”系列 ETF（GRNY、GRNI、GRNJ）截至 2026 年 8 月 27 日合计管理 51 亿美元 资产。
加密这一侧更新、也吵得多。2025 年 6 月 30 日，他被任命为 BitMine Immersion Technologies（NYSE American: BMNR）董事长，这是一家买入并质押 Ethereum 的金库公司——到 2026 年 8 月底，它持有接近 590 万枚 ETH。这不是一条披露脚注；这是他谈论 Ethereum 时绝大部分内容的背景，本页也正是这样对待它的。
他的失误规模大、公开，且多半是择时问题。关于他 2026 年 3 月 4 日 CNBC 露面的报道记录，他曾预测 Bitcoin 在一月底达到 15 万–20 万美元、Ethereum 在一月底达到 7,000–9,000 美元——ETH 进入二月时“仅略高于 3,000 美元”。在 2025 年 12 月的 Binance Blockchain Week 上，他在台上说得更远：“我认为 Bitcoin 会在几个月内到 25 万美元。”这些表态位于本页可制图的七个月窗口之外，因此在此说明，而不是悄悄略过。他自己公司内部也有分歧：Fundstrat 数字资产策略主管 Sean Farrell 的基准情形是 Bitcoin 在 2026 年初回撤到 60,000–65,000 美元——正是后来真实出现的区间——而李当时正在公开喊新高。
Sources: fundstrat.com · x.com/fundstrat · CNBC · dated third-party coverage (linked on every call)
自上而下、主题驱动、目标先行。李从宏观格局出发（美联储政策、流动性、ISM、铜金比），再看资金流与采用曲线，然后把观点表述成一个附带年份的整数——25 万美元的 Bitcoin、1.2 万美元的 Ethereum、S&P 的 8,200 点。具体到加密，他唯一真正的分析工具是 ETH/BTC 价格比率：选一个 Bitcoin 目标，选一个比率，相乘。这个框架很透明，他也把算术摆出来——但这意味着他的 Ethereum 数字会继承他 Bitcoin 数字里的每一个错误。几乎完全缺席的是风险管理：没有止损、没有失效位、没有仓位大小，也没有比“今年”更紧的时间框架。在择时上他还借用别人的位置（Tom DeMark 的周期计数、John Bollinger 的趋势模型），而不是自己生成。读他是为了论点和资金流，绝不是为了入场点。
多到刻度所能允许的上限，而且是结构性的——他担任一家 Ethereum 金库公司的董事长，并管理只做多的股票 ETF。在窗口内七个月的表态中，他没有一条是看空的；最接近的是“价格在近期会滞后”，说在底部前三天。
Eleven dated statements from the chartable window, each one pulled back verbatim from its own source page before it was scored. Lee gives targets but not timeframes tighter than “this year”, so most of these are judged on what price did next from the day he said it. The result splits cleanly by type: his bottom-calling is early and costly — February, March and May all called the end of crypto winter before a further −14.9%, −14.2% and −27.6% — while his thesis-defending at the actual low was excellent. Result: 3 played out, 5 still open, 3 went against him. His bigger misses ($250k Bitcoin “within a few months”, $7–9k Ethereum by January) predate this window and are in the biography, not buried.
“do I think Ethereum could reach all-time highs this year? Uh, absolutely.”
On the Coinage podcast, with ETH at $2,684, he gave a two-step path: $3,000 in the near term, then well above $5,000 — a new all-time high — before year-end, with $60,000 still “a reasonable view” for a couple of years out. Four days in: a high of $2,696 (+0.4%), and it holds $2,649 (−1.3%). His own $5,000 marker needs +88.7% from here in about three months. Open — and he chairs BitMine, which holds close to 6 million ETH.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum could surge past $5,000 this year to new high — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“We believe a crypto bull market is underway, having started in late June,”
In his 21 September note, with BTC at $81,169. His reasons: rotation out of AI stocks back into crypto, tokenization, and the end of the four-year cycle. The start date he gives is fair — Bitcoin's low was 1 July, and he held the thesis there (see 26 June). The rest is untested: BTC ran +6.7% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $83,346 (+2.7%). One week does not make a bull market — open.
SourceBitcoin braces for $15.6B Friday showdown as Tom Lee says bull run underway — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The price ratio of ETH to BTC moved to the highest level since Jan 30th of this year and established a new uptrend,”
His favourite tool again, in BitMine's weekly update, with ETH at $2,477 and the ratio at 0.0322. Ethereum itself did fine: a dip to $2,397 (−3.2%), then +12.1% to $2,775, and it holds $2,649 (+7.0%). The ratio he actually called has not trended: it peaked at 0.0326 on 21 September and is 0.0318 now, a shade below where he said it broke out — Bitcoin kept pace. Open.
SourceBitmine adds $68 million in ether as Tom Lee sees more upside catalysts ahead — CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“I think it's the first leg up because this was like a catching people offside, moving crypto.”
On CNBC with BTC at $77,658 he called the August rally the first leg up and said his $150,000 target was “still possible, not that far off”, naming the 15 September Fed meeting as the pivot. That meeting has passed and the leg has extended, unevenly: a dip to $75,590 (−2.7%) on 16 September, then +11.5% to $86,597 on 22 September, and BTC holds $83,346 (+7.3%). Direction right so far, but $150,000 is still +80.0% away — open.
SourceTom Lee sees ‘very strong’ September rally if the Fed holds — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think that's being very conservative,”
His arithmetic: ETH/BTC back to 0.04 with Bitcoin at $150,000 gives $6,000 Ethereum by year-end — and he called that conservative. He said it with ETH at $2,511. Since then: a dip to $2,391 (−4.8%) on 3 September, then +10.5% to $2,775, and it holds $2,649 (+5.5%). Both inputs are still far off — the ratio is 0.0318, Bitcoin $83,346 — and the target needs +126.5% from here in about three months. Open — and note he chairs BitMine, which owns the ETH.
SourceEthereum will hit $6,000 as CLARITY Act ‘supercharges’ Wall Street demand — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
Posted on X with ETH at $1,890: the ratio had cleared resistance and a broadening rally was underway. It worked, on both legs. ETH dipped just −2.6% to $1,841, then ran +46.8% to $2,775 by 22 September and holds $2,649 (+40.1%). The ratio he was actually calling went from 0.0291 to 0.0318 over the same stretch. His cleanest call in the window.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum has broken out against Bitcoin — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
Talking to Anthony Scaramucci with sentiment worse than post-FTX and BTC at $59,727, he refused to drop the thesis. Bitcoin fell just −1.9% further, to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — then ran +45.0% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+39.5%). Ethereum bottomed that same day. The hedge he added, that price would lag, was the half he got wrong: price led. Called within 2% of the bottom.
SourceTom Lee says crypto is ‘not really broken’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
A BitMine shareholder message, argued from a monthly-close statistic: three green months for Ethereum, therefore no winter. He published it on the exact day Bitcoin printed this window's high, with ETH at $2,370. ETH then fell −33.9% to $1,566 by 26 June — the deepest drawdown here. It did not close back above that day's price until 22 August; it has since run +17.1% to $2,775 and holds $2,649 (+11.8%). The direction eventually paid, but the winter he ended was still six weeks from its low.
SourceTom Lee calls the end of crypto winter once again — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto spring is here.”
Three words, posted on top of John Bollinger's trend-model flip, with BTC at $80,914 — five days from the May high. Bitcoin managed +1.4% to $82,018 on 11 May, then fell −27.6% to $58,566 by 1 July, and did not close back above 所提到的位置 until 4 September. It has since run +7.0% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+3.0%) — a 28% drawdown to be up 3% five months later. His worst-timed in-window call, and a borrowed signal rather than his own.
SourceTom Lee says ‘crypto spring’ is here — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“They're all probably in the final stages or have already bottomed.”
On CNBC's Squawk Box, with BTC at $68,287: the worst of the sell-off would hit “this week”, and crypto had already bottomed. The short half was fine — BTC's worst close that week was $66,043 (−3.3%) and it ran to $74,679 (+9.4%) by 17 March. The bottom call was not: Bitcoin made a −14.2% lower low at $58,566 on 1 July. High since $86,597 (+26.8%), now $83,346 (+22.1%) — the direction eventually paid, this call didn't.
SourceBitcoin and Ethereum price to surge in March? Tom Lee bullish on rebound — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think it touched it to the penny. He thinks we just have to undercut it once more, and that's the low. meaning we're really close to the end”
At Consensus in Hong Kong, BTC at $68,838. The structure he described — one more undercut of the $60,000 area, and that is the low — is exactly what happened: Bitcoin bottomed once, at $58,566 (−14.9%), and has not been lower since; it ran +25.8% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+21.1%). 14 February has now rolled off the chart's price history, which starts on 3 March at $68,816, so the chart anchors there — the percentages come out the same. Two caveats we won't hide. The $60,000 level was Tom DeMark's, not his — Lee was endorsing his timing advisor. And “really close to the end” meant April in the same coverage; the low came on 1 July, four and a half months and one 15% drawdown later.
SourceTom Lee forecasts end of crypto winter, names Bitcoin and Ethereum support — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com结论是我们把他公开表态的倾向对照 CoinGecko 真实价格所做的判读，不是他自己的评分。凡是他引用别人的位置（Tom DeMark 的 60,000 美元），卡片上都会说明。他担任 Ethereum 金库公司 BitMine 的董事长，因此这里每一条关于 Ethereum 的表态都带有直接的经济利益——请据此权衡。未了结的标记可能翻转。
李卖的不是信号——他卖的是机构研究，管理只做多的 ETF，并担任一家上市 Ethereum 金库的董事长。最后这一项才是真正重要的利益冲突，而且他自己的 X 资料页上就写着。
面向对冲基金、共同基金和家族办公室出售的机构与零售研究（Fundstrat Global Advisors / FundstratDirect）。产品就是观点本身，所以观点必须有意思。
他是 GRNY、GRNI 与 GRNJ 背后管理人的首席投资官，截至 2026 年 8 月 27 日合计 51 亿美元。只做多的股票基金按资产收取管理费——这是对股市保持建设性看法的激励。
他担任一家持有接近 590 万枚 ETH 的 Ethereum 金库公司的董事长。当他在播客里说 Ethereum“被严重低估”时，他谈的是自己主持的那张资产负债表。请把这里每一条 ETH 表态都视为带有利益关系。
CNBC 连线、Consensus、Milken、Binance Blockchain Week。影响力是上述三项业务共同的分发渠道。
“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
26 Jun 2026 · 说在 Bitcoin 见底前三天“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
15 Jul 2026 · ETH/BTC 比率是他唯一真正的加密工具“Crypto spring is here.”
6 May 2026 · 发在顶部前五天“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
11 May 2026 · 把月度收盘当作见底信号——早了六周引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
这里没有链接视频库。李的产出是别人的节目——CNBC 连线、播客客串、会议主旨演讲——外加 Fundstrat 的付费研究和 BitMine 的股东信。他自己的 YouTube 频道自 2024 年起未再发布，而 CNBC 的片段没有可供我们引用的文字稿。与其用无法精确引用的片段来充数，我们把这一节留空：上方图表中的每一条表态都链接到一个带日期、逐字承载他原话的页面，而且全部收录在本档案背后的已核实语料中。
Thomas J. Lee, CFA，是一位华尔街策略师：2007 至 2014 年任 J.P. Morgan 首席股票策略师，之后成为 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的联合创始人兼研究主管，并担任 Fundstrat Capital 的首席投资官。自 2025 年 6 月 30 日起，他还担任上市的 Ethereum 金库公司 BitMine Immersion Technologies 的董事长。他是 CNBC 最常邀请的市场评论人之一。
整个 2026 年他公开维持 25 万美元的 Bitcoin 目标，并把 15 万美元作为更近的标记——2026 年 8 月 31 日，在 Bitcoin 报 77,658 美元时，他说“我认为 15 万仍有可能，没那么远”。他不公布失效位，而他此前的目标（一月底 15 万–20 万美元）没有实现。
He is a research analyst and commentator, not your adviser, and he has a direct financial interest in Ethereum through BitMine. His documented pattern in the window charted here is that his direction has been broadly right and his timing repeatedly early — he called the end of crypto winter in February, March and May before the actual low on 1 July. Three of the eleven dated calls on this page went against him. Never trade a headline target without your own invalidation level.
自上而下、主题驱动：解读宏观格局（美联储、流动性、ISM），找出一条持续多年的采用趋势，再把它表述成一个附带年份的整数目标。具体到加密，他从 ETH/BTC 价格比率出发——选一个 Bitcoin 目标，选一个比率，相乘——这很透明，但意味着他的 Ethereum 数字会继承他 Bitcoin 数字里的每一个错误。
他担任 BitMine Immersion Technologies（NYSE American: BMNR）董事长，该公司到 2026 年 8 月底持有接近 590 万枚 ETH，并称已完成其“持有 5% 供应量”目标约 98% 的路程。他的 X 资料页带有该公司的商业标签。他关于 Ethereum 的任何表态都应被视为带有利益关系。
李选一个主题、选一个数字，然后一路扛过回撤。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
