@Excellion
市场上喊比特币 100 万美元喊得最响的人——也是给“Omega candle”起名的人。Mow 不做点位交易；他兜售的是一个始终不变的方向，然后向市场发起挑战。正因如此，他很容易被打分：目标公开、有日期，要么兑现，要么没有。
简而言之。 Samson Mow 是 JAN3 的 CEO——这家比特币基础设施公司与各国政府合作推动国家层面的采用——此前担任过 Blockstream 首席战略官和 BTCC 首席运营官。他是一位只认比特币的极大主义者，只有一条长期论点：供给远比市场定价的更稀缺，因此比特币会走向 100 万美元，通过一次他称之为 “Omega candle” 的短促而猛烈的重新定价。这份笃定既是他的优势，也是他的软肋。我们 2026 年的样本把这一点展示得很清楚：当市场崩塌时，他不眨眼的态度完全正确——他提前三天喊出底部，误差仅 2.3%。而当市场平静时，同样的笃定却产出了严重落空的具体择时判断，包括从未守住的 8 万美元地板，以及那句“Omega candle 就在眼前”——随后却是 24% 的回撤。
Mow 是一位华裔加拿大企业家，他是经由游戏和基础设施而非交易进入比特币领域的。他于 2011 年创办游戏工作室 Pixelmatic（Infinite Fleet 的开发商），曾任 BTCC 首席运营官——当时全球最大的交易所和矿池之一——后来出任 Blockstream 首席战略官。2022 年 3 月他离职创办 JAN3，募资 2100 万美元，为他所谓的超比特币化打造工具。
JAN3's business is sovereign adoption: advising governments on holding and issuing against Bitcoin, work that grew out of his high-profile role in El Salvador's Bitcoin strategy and its Volcano Bond. That matters when reading him. He is not a chartist posting entries and stops — he is a Bitcoin-only advocate whose company profits from Bitcoin being adopted, and his public calls are almost uniformly, structurally bullish. He is also willing to put numbers on it: his published 2026 predictions included $1.33M Bitcoin and MSTR at $5,000, neither of which is remotely in play with BTC near $85k.
Sources: x.com/Excellion · jan3.com · dated press (CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, Cointelegraph)
笃定高于校准。 Mow 的框架是供给侧的，而且是绝对的：2100 万上限、待挖出的币不足一百万、财库公司和主权国家在毫无价格敏感度地买入——因此大约 11 万–12 万美元以下的任何价格都是折扣，而重新定价将是突然发生而非逐步爬升。他不用止损、不设点位、没有证伪条件——不存在任何能证明他论点错误的价格，只有“深度折扣”的价格。实际结果是一份哑铃形的战绩：在投降式下跌中表现出色，此时拒绝卖出正是正确的操作，而他在底部附近的择时确实不错；在短周期目标上则很差，同样的确定性催生出四周预测，而价格根本不予理会。
在这个数据库里，多头立场几乎没有更极端的了。Mow 只认比特币，不持有任何看跌情形——他的立场只在“买”和“更用力地买”之间摆动，因此请把他读作一位永久多头，其价值在于推理，而不在于方向。
Eight dated, public statements from Mow, each verified against the source before it was charted — seven are X posts captured from X's own syndication endpoint (exact text, exact timestamp), one is a quote confirmed on the page that published it. The earliest, from 27 February, now predates the price window and is charted from its first day. Because he posts direction rather than levels, we judged each one on what Bitcoin actually did next. The sample splits sharply by market regime: his two crash-period calls in June 2026 were the best-timed on this page, and his two calm-market timing calls in March and April were the worst. His headline numbers — $1.33M in 2026, posted in January, and a $1M target he has carried since 2025 — sit outside this window and are noted below rather than scored. His two newest calls — a return over $90,000 (25 Aug) and a coming “most hated rally” (1 Oct) — are still open.
“Bitcoin's next leg up will be the most hated rally of all time. Everyone had the opportunity to buy the dip but didn't because they were waiting for $40k in October.”
A jab at the four-year-cycle crowd who expected a $40k October bottom — the $40k is their number, not his. The post went up late on 1 October (21:57 UTC), so the chart marks it at that day's $83,576, but the next daily point came about two hours later at $84,842; that +1.5% is not his. Bitcoin is $84,580 today — +1.2% from the chart point, −0.3% from the next one. A direction with no level or deadline, two days old: logged open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin's next leg up will be the most hated rally of all time.” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“Just wait until it's over $90,000 again!”
Posted as a quote of a Bitcoin meme from Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino — a named level with no deadline. From $78,974 Bitcoin dipped −4.3% to $75,590, ran +9.7% to $86,597 on 22 Sep and holds $84,580 (+7.1%). It has not closed a day at or above $90,000 since he posted; getting there needs another +6.4%. Direction right so far, level not yet printed: open.
𝕏 Post“Just wait until it's over $90,000 again!” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“The market smells blood in the water and is climbing into the Bitcoin boat for safety.”
Posted as long-bond yields hit highs and Bitcoin pushed back over $71k, framing the move as a flight to safety into BTC, not a relief bounce. From $69,291 Bitcoin has never traded lower — the low since is the day itself — and it ran +25.0% to $86,597 and holds $84,580 (+22.1%). A clean directional read with no drawdown against it.
𝕏 Post“The market smells blood in the water…” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in 4 months because “cycles.” But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles you should reason out the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in.”
The strongest call in this dossier, made against a loud consensus that the cycle low was still four months away. He said it at $59,953; the actual low of this window printed three days later on 1 Jul at $58,566 — he was early by 2.3%. From there Bitcoin ran +44.4% to $86,597 and holds $84,580 (+41.1%). Verified verbatim from the post itself; CoinDesk reported it the same day.
𝕏 Post“The bottom is in.” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“The fundamental value proposition for Bitcoin hasn’t changed at all: neutral, permissionless, bearer money. It’s the best hope for the future and hyperbitcoinization is inevitable because continued fiat money printing is an absolute certainty.”
Posted with Bitcoin collapsing below $60k and sentiment at its worst of the year — a flat refusal to revise the thesis. It was the right call to make: from $62,662 price gave up only another −6.5% to $58,566 before turning, ran +38.2% to $86,597 and holds $84,580 (+35.0%). Not a price target — a hold-through-capitulation stance, and it worked.
𝕏 Post“The fundamental value proposition for Bitcoin hasn’t changed at all…” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“Everything is up in the air now. And I think an Omega candle and $1 million Bitcoin is just around the corner, especially with all the buy pressure that is flooding the market now with Saylor through STRC and other Bitcoin treasury company players all coming in”
In the same interview he argued “anything under $120,000, $110,000 I think, is below fair market value.” What followed was the opposite of a melt-up: from $77,367 Bitcoin fell −24.3% to $58,566 first, then ran +11.9% to $86,597 and holds $84,580 (+9.3%). Five months on there has been no Omega candle and no $1M, price is still below the $110–120k he called fair value, and the “deep discount” got roughly a quarter cheaper before it recovered. Marked against on the timing claim, not the valuation argument.
SourceExpert Says $1 Million Bitcoin and “Omega Candle” Is Just Around the Corner — Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“It's highly unlikely that #Bitcoin will be below $80k in 4 weeks. It's highly likely it will be closer to $0.1M.”
His most falsifiable call — a level and a deadline. Bitcoin was $69,849 when he posted. Over the four weeks that followed it never once traded above $74,679, and on the deadline date (8 Apr) it closed at $71,662 — comfortably below the $80k he called unlikely, and nowhere near $0.1M. It then fell to $58,566 (−16.2%). Price is +21.1% today at $84,580, but the four-week claim failed on both legs.
𝕏 Post“It's highly unlikely that #Bitcoin will be below $80k in 4 weeks.” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com“We’re setting up for a decade-long bull run and no one is paying attention.”
A structural claim with a ten-year horizon, so this window can only take its temperature. The post now predates the price window, which starts on 8 March, so the chart anchors at $67,340 rather than his entry price. From there Bitcoin first fell −13.0% to $58,566, then ran +28.6% to $86,597 and holds $84,580 (+25.6%) — far from anything that settles a decade-long thesis. Logged open: directionally fine so far, unjudgeable on this timeframe.
𝕏 Post“We’re setting up for a decade-long bull run…” — @Excellion on X↗ x.com结论是我们把他公开表述的观点与 CoinGecko 真实价格相对照后的解读，而非他本人的打分。每条引语均逐字取自所链接的来源。Mow 的论点明确是跨年度的，因此这里的“走反”标记只意味着短期主张落空——它不是对那条长期论点的裁决，本窗口内的任何图表都无法裁定它。
Mow 不卖信号、不卖课程、不做付费通讯——这消除了本数据库中最常见的利益冲突，却代之以一个更大、更结构性的冲突。他的 X 账号带有官方 JAN3 企业徽标，而 JAN3 的收入取决于比特币采用能否提速。请把他的判断读作一家比特币基础设施公司的公开发声，而不是一位置身事外的分析师的意见。
JAN3 于 2022 年募资 2100 万美元，向企业与政府销售比特币基础设施与咨询。更高的价格和更快的采用对这门生意直接有利，而他正是公司的 CEO 与公众面孔——这是本页最明显的利益冲突。
他的知名度建立在萨尔瓦多的比特币战略与火山债券之上，JAN3 也仍在争取主权客户。关于主权采用的看多预测，同时也就是他的产品推介。
他仍是游戏工作室 Pixelmatic（Infinite Fleet）的 CEO，也是比特币会议巡回中的付费常客——在那种场合，极大主义的笃定正是舞台所要采购的东西。
“The bottom is in.”
28 Jun 2026 · 比真正的底部早三天、差 2.3%“The market smells blood in the water and is climbing into the Bitcoin boat for safety.”
20 Aug 2026 · 解读资金逃离长债“It's highly unlikely that #Bitcoin will be below $80k in 4 weeks. It's highly likely it will be closer to $0.1M.”
11 Mar 2026 · 留在记录里的失手引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
Mow 没有个人交易频道——上面的战绩完全由带日期的 X 帖文和被引述的新闻构成，因为只有这些带有可独立核验的时间戳和可精确引用的文本。视频记录属于他的公司：JAN3 发布他的论点视频和公开露面。
一位华裔加拿大企业家、只认比特币的倡导者，比特币基础设施公司 JAN3 与游戏工作室 Pixelmatic 的 CEO。他此前担任 Blockstream 首席战略官和交易所 BTCC 首席运营官，最为人所知的是他在萨尔瓦多比特币战略中的工作，以及每枚比特币 100 万美元的长期目标。
His long-standing target is $1 million per coin, arriving in what he calls an “Omega candle” — a single-day move of more than $100,000 — rather than a gradual climb. In January 2026 he published a specific figure of $1.33M for the year. Bitcoin is around $85,000 as of 3 October 2026, so that target is nowhere in play.
他是一位倡导者和公司 CEO，不是持牌顾问，而且在任何价格上都不持看跌情形。我们 2026 年的样本按市场状态分化：他 6 月在暴跌低点附近的判断非常出色——提前三天、误差 2.3% 喊中底部——而 3 月的四周目标和 4 月的“Omega candle 就在眼前”都严重落空。请把他当作具有明确商业利益的高笃定评论，绝不要当作交易信号。
供给侧且绝对：2100 万上限、待挖出的币不足一百万，以及对价格不敏感的买家（企业财库与主权国家）在吸走流通量。他由此得出结论：大约 11 万–12 万美元以下的任何价格都低于公允价值，而重新定价将突然发生。他不用止损、不设点位、也没有证伪条件。
Mow 的全部优势就在于不眨眼——没有止损、没有证伪条件，一个方向一路扛过 24% 的回撤。你的直觉有多接近？用 Trader Passport 真刀真枪地量一量。
