@Roman_Trading
一个比特币波段交易账号，在日线和周线图上看背离和成交量，大多数周都会直播。2026年的大转折判断对了。4月24日，在$78,275时，Roman表示比特币会跌破60k，到6月下旬确实跌破了。6月初，该账号转为看涨，开始晒出自己的现货买入；7月1日它预测反弹至70k，8月兑现。失误：3月看到50k“and likely a bit lower”，从未出现；以及8月下旬的一次短线看空转向，Roman后来自己承认判断错了。
简而言之。 Roman posts Bitcoin charts on X as @Roman_Trading and streams them live on X and YouTube. On our sample of eight dated posts the record is 4 played out, 2 open, 2 went against. The wins are the drop below 60k, the slide to the lower 60s in June, the bounce to 70k and the move to 85-87k after a break of 82.5k. The misses are the 50k target from March and a short-term bearish call in late August. Open are the 90k uptrend from 1 October and a return above 100k from 9 October. Since early June the account has posted a weekly Bitcoin spot buy, so the bullish calls are backed by the account's own money, as far as the screenshots show.
该账号于2021年4月加入X，显示名为Roman。简介写着“Swing Trader $BTC / $ETH ~ FREE Discord”，并附有Bitget推荐链接。头像是罗马头盔标志，而非照片。我们没有找到这个名字背后的姓氏、所在地、雇主或经审计的战绩。所在地一栏写着“Not Financial Advice”。
Cointelegraph在其每周比特币综述中引用过该账号，例如2026年4月6日，它嵌入了帖子“$BTC pumping on a Sunday and everyone celebrating… You guys will never learn.”，将其列为“remained skeptical”的交易员之一。
X动态里混合了比特币日线和周线图（“$BTC 1D”、“$BTC 1W”）、直播预告、现货买入截图，以及关于股票和SpaceX IPO的帖子。据Roman所说，比特币现货持仓在2026年6月之前一年多以“just under 100k”卖出；帖子提到已转向股票，并自2026年6月初起每周发布一笔比特币买入。9月21日的帖子称DCA已“finished”，均价72k。我们将公开动态无间断地回溯到5月28日。更早的2026年帖子只能通过ID访问，因此3月和4月的判断来自经媒体报道及早前一轮研究找到的帖子。
Sources: x.com/Roman_Trading (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · Cointelegraph weekly round-ups · Google News
背离、成交量与四年周期。Roman看RSI和MACD上的看涨与看跌背离，检查成交量是否确认走势，并画出反转形态，如反向头肩和双底。其上还有一个周期时钟：一轮52周的熊市，按Roman的计算，将在2026年10月初左右结束。在本样本中，这套方法在大转折上表现不错：6月前看跌，7月起看涨。逆势做出的短线看空则表现较差；7月画出的反向头肩形态失败，之后8月的双底才奏效。
Bearish “over a year”, by Roman's own account, until early June 2026. Bullish since 8 June, with a short-term bearish spell from late August to mid-September that Roman later called wrong. On 1 October the post looked for “our next uptrend to 90k”, and through mid-October Roman kept calling the sideways drift above 80k a consolidation before higher.
Eight dated posts from @Roman_Trading, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 4 played out, 2 open, 2 went against. The four wins are the drop below 60k, the June slide, the bounce to 70k and the 85-87k breakout target. The two misses are the 50k target from March and the short-term bearish call from late August. The two open calls are 90k and a return above 100k.
“When $BTC inevitably gets back above 100k bears will try and convince you that it was “all manipulation & makes no sense”.”
A call for Bitcoin back above 100k, with no time frame beyond “inevitably”. Posted at $81,686, which puts 100k 22.4% above the call price. Since then the high has been $83,691 (+2.5%) on 12 October, and Bitcoin is at $82,701 (+1.2%). Open.
𝕏 Post“When $BTC inevitably gets back above 100k” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.com“Getting insanely close to breaking our LTF resistance and starting our next uptrend to 90k.”
A short-term breakout call, posted at $83,576. The high since was $86,490 (+3.5%) on 5 October. Bitcoin then slipped back and is at $82,701 (−1.0%). On 11 October Roman put a time frame on the target: “I’d say in a couple weeks we will be above 90k”. It has not reached 90k. Open.
𝕏 Post“Getting insanely close to breaking our LTF resistance and starting our next uptrend to 90k” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.com“82.5k acting as strong resistance so when we do break I expect a big move to 85-87k.”
一个突破目标，于UTC午夜后一分钟发布，价格$81,169。同一帖子预计先继续横盘，但突破当天就来了。次日日线读数为$86,597（+6.7%），落在85-87k区间内。比特币现报$82,701（+1.9%）。目标应验，时机不准。
𝕏 Post“82.5k acting as strong resistance so when we do break I expect a big move to 85-87k” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.com“I think the market is going to do some humbling in the near future.”
一次短线看空，于20:44 UTC发布，价格$78,974（次日读数$78,511）。帖子提到周线图上的更低高点和看跌背离。此后最低读数为9月16日的$75,590（−4.3%）。随后比特币于9月22日向上突破至$86,597（+9.7%）。当天Roman写道：“Unfortunately my short term $BTC bearish call was wrong”。落空。
𝕏 Post“I think the market is going to do some humbling in the near future” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.com“We should see a solid bounce to 70k area - if not higher.”
7月1日21:48 UTC发布，正是我们窗口内最低读数的那一天。当日读数$58,566，次日$59,968。此后比特币在60k区间徘徊数周，7月22日最高读数为$66,521。8月21日以$73,021到达70k（+24.7%，按次日读数计为+21.8%），之后继续升至$86,597（+47.9%）。七周后应验。
𝕏 Post“We should see a solid bounce to 70k area - if not higher” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.com“Currently everything on our 1D chart says lower. Volume increasing as price dropping. I don't see any signs of reversal. See you in the lower 60s.”
发布时价格$71,320。四天后比特币报$60,960（−14.5%），低点出现在7月1日，为$58,566（−17.9%）。应验。
𝕏 Post“I don't see any signs of reversal. See you in the lower 60s.” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.com“It’s going to be funny when $BTC price drops below 60k and all the people saying we bottomed make an excuse.”
发布时价格$78,275。比特币先于5月11日涨至$82,018（+4.8%）。随后下跌，6月26日首次日线读数跌破60k，为$59,727（−23.7%），7月1日到达$58,566（−25.2%）。应验。
𝕏 Post“It’s going to be funny when $BTC price drops below 60k” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.com“There are still 0 signs of bear market exhaustion on HTF. No divs, no bear PA exhaustion, no momentum loss, etc I still have high confidence in seeing 50k and likely a bit lower.”
A downside target. Posted on 22 March, a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $71,304 on 26 March. Bitcoin's lowest mark in the rest of March and April was $65,947, and it then rose to $82,018 (+15.0%) on 11 May. The drop came later but stopped at $58,566 (−17.9%) on 1 July, well above 50k. Roman began buying spot in early June, with no 50k print. Bitcoin is at $82,701 (+16.0%). The verdict rests on the level Roman named, which the moving anchor cannot change. Went against.
𝕏 Post“I still have high confidence in seeing 50k and likely a bit lower” — @Roman_Trading on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not the trader's own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. We did not chart stream titles, spot-buy screenshots or restatements of a charted view. Bearish restatements on 30 March and 6 April are left out. So is the 10 September call (“Would love to see 67k”), which repeats the late-August view: the lowest daily mark after it was $75,590. The 5 and 11 October posts that repeat the 90k target are folded into the 1 October card. The 8 October post (a drop to 75k “if we don’t hold 80k support”) is left out because its condition never triggered: every daily mark since stayed above 80k. Each post is measured from that day's midnight CoinGecko mark. The 1 July post went out at 21:48 UTC and the 25 August post at 20:44 UTC, so for those two cards we also give the next day's mark. Near-term marks can flip.
Roman的分析在X、YouTube和Discord上免费。以下是该账号出售或推广的内容。
简介和每条直播帖都附有Bitget推荐链接（“15% off Trading Fees”），8月底之前的直播均为“Sponsored by @bitget”。此类推荐链接通常会向推荐人付费。
自2026年9月9日起，Roman与自营交易公司Breakout合作，提供考核折扣推荐链接，并赠送一个免费账户。9月中旬以来的直播由Breakout赞助。
2026年3月27日，Roman写到“assisting the development of an AI trading algorithm”，并邀请人们投资（“If interested in investing see below/DM me”）。后来的帖子通过私信（DM）提供“use this system FOR FREE”，并声称其今年上涨约50%。我们无法核实这些收益，也未找到该系统的名称、条款或运营方。
简介链接到一个免费的Discord服务器。
“It’s going to be funny when $BTC price drops below 60k and all the people saying we bottomed make an excuse.”
24 Apr 2026 · 应验“Unfortunately my short term $BTC bearish call was wrong”
22 Sep 2026 · 承认失误“Getting insanely close to breaking our LTF resistance and starting our next uptrend to 90k.”
1 Oct 2026 · 最新判断引文摘录自其本人的公开渠道;仅为所述观点,并非投资建议。
Roman大多数周在X和YouTube（youtube.com/c/RomanCryptoTrading）上直播，标题通常为“Live Crypto Analysis”。我们绘制的是X帖子，而非直播。
X上的一个比特币波段交易账号（@Roman_Trading，显示名Roman），约有68,000名粉丝，自2021年起活跃于该平台。该账号在X和YouTube上直播比特币分析，并被Cointelegraph的每周综述引用。我们未找到姓氏或雇主。
On our sample of eight dated posts from 22 March to 9 October 2026: four played out, two are open, two went against. The big turns did well, down into June and up from July. The March 50k target and a short-term bearish call in late August did not.
我们没有发现付费信号群。该账号通过Bitget和Breakout推荐链接及直播赞助获得收入，并通过私信（DM）提供一个AI交易系统，其收益我们无法核实。
当价格创出更低低点，而RSI等指标却形成更高低点。像Roman这样的交易者将其解读为抛压减弱。它可能持续数周价格才转向，也不一定会带来转向。
未公开,也不存在可信的数字。请忽略任何与该名字挂钩的具体数字。
Roman交易背离，并公开自己的买入。你的直觉有多接近？用Trader Passport真正测一测。
