Peter Schiff

“If you have any Bitcoin, sell it now and buy gold and silver.”

Said at $70,661. Anyone who sold got paid for a while: BTC fell 17.1% to $58,566 over the next eleven weeks. Then it came all the way back and more — a close of $86,597 (+22.6%) on 22 Sep, and $84,359 now, +19.4% above 他的水平. A real drawdown followed, so under our rule we log this open rather than against; whether the swap into metals beat holding is a separate question we do not chart here.

“Congratulations, Bitcoiners. Bitcoin is finally the uncorrelated asset you’ve hoped it would be.”

His sarcasm — gold up 9%, silver 11%, the NASDAQ 13%, the Russell 2,000 14%, Bitcoin down 11% on the year — landed at $80,025, just ahead of a −26.8% slide to $58,566. For almost four months that made it his best in-window call. It has now round-tripped: BTC closed at $86,597 on 22 Sep (+8.2%) and sits at $84,359, +5.4% above where he wrote it. A 15%+ drawdown followed and price then came back above him, so under our rule this moves from played out to open.

“There is way too much complacency in Bitcoin for the market to be anywhere near a bottom.”

Said at $71,320, with the target spelled out: break $50K, then “a quick fall below $20K.” The first half worked — BTC fell another 17.9% to $58,566 on 1 Jul, so he was correct that the bottom was not in. The second half did not: $50k held by 17%, and BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+21.4%) and is now $84,359, +18.3% above him. Direction yes, magnitude no.

“AI isn’t bullish for Bitcoin; it’s a threat to it.”

A new line of attack: AI competes with Bitcoin for speculative capital, electricity and data-centre capacity, and a powerful enough model might find flaws in its cryptography. The resource argument is at least testable; the code-vulnerability part comes with no specific flaw named. Posted at $77,081; BTC dipped no more than −1.9% after it, closed as high as $86,597 (+12.3%) and is $84,359 now, +9.4%. Price has gone against him so far, but the claim is structural, with no level or date, so we keep it open rather than grade it on five weeks.

“Energy expenditures are not backing. The energy is gone, the money spent is gone, so there is none left to back Bitcoin.”

Not a price call — an argument, made to Bitcoiner Jeff Swanson, that proof-of-work leaves nothing behind: gold survives the miner, electricity does not. Posted at $79,671. It went his way briefly — BTC dipped 5.1% to $75,590 on 16 Sep — then turned, closing as high as $86,597 (+8.7%); it is $84,359 now, +5.9% above him. Three weeks is a mood, not a verdict, and he named no level, so we log it open.

“Yes, it's very clear that Bitcoin is worthless. No act of Congress is necessary.”

His reply to Anthony Pompliano after the CLARITY Act failed its Senate cloture vote. Posted at $75,590, the lowest close since 21 Aug. Bitcoin has not closed below it since: it ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) within a week and is $84,359 now, +11.6% above him. Against him so far, but eleven days old with no level named, so we log it open.

“The news is actually bearish for Bitcoin, which must now compete with tokenized securities.”

The SEC's tokenized-stock announcement sent Bitcoin up the day before; Schiff wrote that the rally “makes no sense”, arguing tokens backed by profitable, dividend-paying companies are a better store of value than one “backed by nothing.” Posted at $80,874. Three days later BTC closed at $86,597 (+7.1%); it has not closed below 他的水平 since and is $84,359 now, +4.3%. Against him so far, but eight days is too short to grade, so we log it open.

“Now he's buying back some of what he sold for over $80K per Bitcoin. It won't be long before he's selling at lower prices again.”

Aimed at Michael Saylor: Strategy's last selling spree got about $62,150 per Bitcoin, he wrote, and it is now buying back above $80K. The call inside it is that Bitcoin will be lower when Strategy next sells. It landed on the day of the highest close in this window, $86,597; BTC has since dipped to $84,076 (−2.9%) and is $84,359 now, −2.6%. Going his way, but five days old and tied to Strategy's next sale rather than a level, so we log it open.