@Pentosh1
那只企鹅。一位匿名波段交易员，发帖极少、建仓极慢——大周期的关键位、一年只做寥寥几笔交易，并且把仓位连同入场价一起公开说出来。做错了他也不删帖——正因如此，这些话才能被放到图表上检验。
简而言之。 Pentoshi (@Pentosh1, roughly 947,000 followers) is one of the most-followed anonymous traders on Crypto Twitter, active since 2019 and known for going quiet for weeks at a time. His method is high-timeframe support and resistance plus a supply/demand overlay — corporate treasury buying, ETF flows — and he trades it with unusual patience: by his own count, three Bitcoin trades in half a year, entered in quarters rather than all at once. The record below is the honest version: a conditional April read whose trigger took until September to fire, a May “the lows are in” call that Bitcoin promptly disproved by 25%, a July Ethereum entry, posted with the exact fill, that has since run more than 50%, and an August follow-up on that same position naming $3,000 as the next stop — a level ETH still has not reached. In September, as majors broke out of a month-long range, he added three more: ETH at 3–3.2k, Solana at 128–140, and a starter NEAR position around $3 that is up 57%.
Pentoshi 自 2019 年 6 月起就用企鹅头像公开交易，从未透露真实姓名、公司或网站——他的 X 资料页不链接任何东西，个人简介全文只有一句 “full time larp”。主流加密媒体照样引用他：The Daily Hodl 多年来一直称他为「匿名交易员」和「以判断时机精准著称的知名市场分析师」，而他的粉丝数已从 2024 年底的约 83.4 万增长到今天的约 94.7 万。
加密推特普遍把 2021 年周期顶部的判断归功于他。我们无法从带日期的一手来源核实这一点，因此本页的记录中不包含它——下面上图的每一条都是他本人的帖子，抓取两次并逐字引用。公开记录确实显示的，是一次有据可查的低估下行风险：2025 年 5 月他把比特币的最坏情况描述为「下一个更高低点在 9 万多美元区间」；而此后比特币的实际低点是 58,566 美元，出现在 2026 年 7 月 1 日。他也会公开自己的亏损——「那次暴跌前 eth 仓位实在太重了……市场会让所有人低头」——正因如此，这样一份战绩表才有可能被整理出来。
Sources: x.com/Pentosh1 (posts captured verbatim) · Daily Hodl coverage · CryptoRank angel-investment record
大周期关键位，慢速交易。Pentoshi 从周线和月线的支撑与阻力出发，追问一次反弹究竟是真正收复关键位，还是仅仅一个更低的高点，并且在前高位重新收回之前，拒绝谈论真正的扩张行情。在此之上是一层供需分析——企业买入量对比每日新增产量、ETF 资金流——以及把主流币互相对照来读（ETH/BTC、ETH/SOL），而不只是对照美元。真正的线索是仓位规模：四分之一仓、极少交易、长时间空仓，以及一句直白的「有时候少即是多」。弱点正是长处的另一面——一旦他真的转为看多，他会用绝对化的措辞（「底部已经出现」「18 万美元」），而基于关键位的框架，对于一个只是持续缓慢阴跌的市场，是没有答案的。
结构上看多，战术上空仓。他会长时间完全不持有任何加密仓位，然后才用绝对化的措辞抛出方向性观点——所以偏向读起来是看多的，但他真正在仓位里的时间只占少数。
Seven dated posts from his own X account inside the CoinGecko price window, charted against what price actually did next. Pentoshi posts infrequently — that is the method, not an oversight — so this is a small, complete sample of his in-window directional calls rather than a selection of the good ones. Two of the seven are Bitcoin calls a week apart in the spring; then come the July Ethereum entry, the August follow-up in which he put a number on it, and three posts from a single September morning — ETH, SOL and NEAR — as majors broke out of a month-long range. Every quote was pulled twice from X and is reproduced verbatim in the corpus linked on each card.
“I started a position into the move around $3 but not any meaningful size unfortunately, just a starter bag.”
One of a burst of posts the morning majors broke out of a month-long range. He said he had already bought NEAR “into the move around $3” — a starter position, not size — and would wait for a higher low before a proper trade with targets. NEAR closed $3.15 that day and has not closed lower since: it ran to $5.39 (+71.2%) on 28 September and is $4.94 (+57.0%) today. Ten minutes after the post he conceded it had “moved quicker than i expected” — so the win is on a starter bag, not on size. Played out; he named no target, so none is graded.
𝕏 Post“some really incredible charts forming out there” — @Pentosh1, 18 Sep 2026↗ x.com“potentially setting up for a move to 128-140 area for the next range, possibly ending this current accumulation range its also been in the past month”
Same morning, same breakout read: Solana had “pretty clear skies” and could move up to a 128–140 range, ending a month of accumulation. SOL was $102 that day and has not closed lower since. It reached $122 (+20.2%) on 26 September and is $119 (+16.7%) today — the direction was right, but the 128 floor of his range has not printed and sits 8.0% above today’s price. Open.
𝕏 PostSolana “has pretty clear skies here” — @Pentosh1, 18 Sep 2026↗ x.com“$ETH still looks good for 3-3.2k imo and could finally be breaking out after a month of consolidation”
Three weeks after naming $3,000 he restated it as a range and added the trigger: a breakout “after a month of consolidation”. The breakout came — ETH was $2,446 that day, has not closed lower since, and ran to $2,775 (+13.5%) on 22 September. Today it is $2,665 (+9.0%); the $3,000 floor of his 3–3.2k range sits 12.6% above and has not printed. Right on the breakout, open on the target.
𝕏 Post“$ETH still looks good for 3-3.2k imo” — @Pentosh1, 18 Sep 2026↗ x.com“Dips if given are for adding, but this has a strong chance at trading at 3k in the near future.”
Six weeks after the entry he put a number on it, quote-tweeting his own 14 July ETH post as BitMine’s mNAV came back to 1.05x — a treasury buyer trading at par can start accumulating again. ETH was $2,506 that day. The dip he said to add into did arrive, 4.6% down to $2,391, and price has since made its best level of the period: $2,775, +10.7% on 22 September. It is $2,665 (+6.3%) today, and the $3,000 he named has not printed — it sits 12.6% above today’s price. Still open, and on the right side of it so far.
𝕏 Post“Dips if given are for adding” — @Pentosh1, 27 Aug 2026↗ x.com“I started a 1/4 position in it at 1,766 and will look to hopefully get to add more to that over time.”
He named the asset, the size and the fill. ETH closed $1,774 that day — his stated 1,766 entry — and nothing has closed lower since: the low after the post is the day of the post itself. ETH is +50.2% to $2,665 today, after a high of $2,775 (+56.4%) on 22 September. Worth the caveat that this was not the bottom: ETH had already printed $1,566 on 26 June, 12% below his fill. A quarter-size entry into a hated major, and it worked.
𝕏 Post“$ETH is currently the most interesting major” — @Pentosh1, 14 Jul 2026↗ x.com“But long term I don't think it's a bad spot with quite a bit of patience. Right now I think it's more important to reclaim a prev level if we want true expansion. For example 84-86k area HTF close for momentum”
A conditional call, and the condition took five months to arrive. BTC was $77,367 that day. The “I don't think it's a bad spot” half was tested hard first — BTC fell 24.3% to $58,566 on 1 July. Then, in late September, came the reclaim he asked for: BTC closed at $86,597 (+11.9%) on 22 September and stayed at or above 84k for seven straight daily closes. It has since slipped back to $83,099 (+7.4%), just under the band. Patience paid on price; whether this is the “true expansion” he meant is still open.
𝕏 Post“We got the 80k push on $BTC” — @Pentosh1, 28 Apr 2026↗ x.com“In terms of probabilities, I think the lows are in and we could see BTC trade as high as $180k between this year and next.”
Six days after standing aside he returned, bought, and said so: one corporate buyer absorbing 1.6× daily issuance meant “at some point something has to give”. It gave the other way. BTC was $78,512; it fell 25.4% to $58,566 by 1 July. The mid-80k confirmation he named did finally close in late September (high since: $86,597, +10.3%), and BTC is $83,099 (+5.8%) today — so the position is in profit, but “the lows are in” was wrong by a quarter of the price, and $180k is still more than double today’s level.
𝕏 PostStrategy's buying vs daily issuance — @Pentosh1, 04 May 2026↗ x.com结论是我们把他公开表态的仓位对照 CoinGecko 真实日收盘价的解读，不是他自己的打分。正文里的价格与图表所用的是同一组数据。仍然开放的判断会随周期演进而重新评估。
这里没有付费群、没有订阅邮件、也没有网站——他的 X 资料页不链接任何东西，我们也没找到任何在售的订阅产品。这消除了最常见的利益冲突，但留下另外两个，而且都很重要：他在自己所评论的行业里做天使投资，并且会公开谈论自己的持仓。
CryptoRank 把他列为拥有 11 笔可查投资的天使投资人（其中包括 BounceBit、Eesee、DreamOS、DeFi.app），标注的散户回报率为 0.54 倍。在他所发帖讨论的同一批赛道里持有私募仓位，是这里最尖锐的利益驱动——而这个回报也说明，他的私募账本远比公开判断难看。
他会连同入场价一起公布仓位——1,766 的四分之一 ETH 仓位、5 月 4 日新买入的 BTC、以及在 $HYPE 上的持续多头，他在那里写道「回调就是用来买入/加仓的 imo」。足够透明——但仍然是一份「你认同他会让他受益」的账本。
我们找不到任何付费频道、课程或推荐返佣漏斗，而且他会长时间完全不发帖。收入模式看起来是交易和投资，而不是把关注度变现——在这个粉丝量级上并不常见，值得肯定。
“In terms of probabilities, I think the lows are in and we could see BTC trade as high as $180k between this year and next.”
04 May 2026 · 走反了的那一条判断“I started a 1/4 position in it at 1,766 and will look to hopefully get to add more to that over time.”
14 Jul 2026 · 他真实的建仓方式：一次四分之一“Sometimes less is more. Gotta know when to push it and when to sit back.”
28 Apr 2026 · 半年多只做了三笔 BTC 交易“Dips if given are for adding, but this has a strong chance at trading at 3k in the near future.”
27 Aug 2026 · the August follow-up that put a target on the ETH trade引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
这里没有可供链接的视频库。Pentoshi 不做播客、不链接网站，也没有承认属于自己的频道——确实存在一个使用他名字的 YouTube 账号，但他的资料页没有指向它，我们也无法核实是否由他运营，因此这里不作链接。他全部的公开产出就是 X 上的帖子，这正是上面每条判断都是带时间戳的引文而非视频片段的原因。图表背后经过核实的语料在每张卡片上都有注明。
一位匿名加密交易员，自 2019 年 6 月起以 @Pentosh1 的用户名和企鹅头像发帖，在 X 上约有 94.7 万粉丝。他的真实姓名、所在地和雇主均未公开，个人简介写着 “full time larp”。加密媒体经常引用他，并称其为「匿名交易员」和「以判断时机精准著称的知名市场分析师」。
这个说法流传很广，也很可能属实——但我们无法从带日期的一手来源核实，因此我们不作断言，它也不属于本页的战绩记录。这里上图的所有内容都是他本人的帖子，连同时间戳逐字记录。
He is an anonymous commentator, not a licensed adviser. Of his seven dated in-window calls charted here, two played out (+50% on Ethereum, +57% on NEAR), four are unresolved, and one — “the lows are in”, on 4 May 2026 — was followed by Bitcoin falling 25%. He also underestimated the 2025–26 downside badly, framing “mid $90,000s” as the worst case before BTC traded at $58,566. Treat his posts as a documented, dated opinion — never trade them blindly.
大周期的支撑与阻力，外加一条严格的收复要求——在前高位重新收回之前，他不会谈扩张行情。在此之上他叠加供需（企业财库买入对比每日新增产量、ETF 资金流），把主流币互相对照而不只对照美元，并且分四分之一仓建仓、交易次数极少：按他自己的说法，半年多只做了三笔比特币交易。
Pentoshi 的优势是「大声地什么都不做」：等待关键位收复、先进四分之一仓、其余时间空着。你的直觉与之有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
