@novogratz
从高盛合伙人到宏观基金经理，再到加密公司 CEO——他也是少数几位敢在公开场合给出具体点位和时间、然后承担后果的大型比特币多头之一。他的 2026 年恰好说明了两者的差别：凡是他给出数字的判断，多数都对了；凡是他描述市场情绪的判断，多数都错了。
简而言之。 Mike Novogratz is founder, CEO and chairman of Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY), the crypto-and-AI-infrastructure firm he built after eleven years at Goldman Sachs and a run as a principal and macro-fund CIO at Fortress. He is a permanent-bull-with-caveats: his case for Bitcoin is a sovereign-debt case — a $39-40 trillion debt pile that in his view can only be inflated away — and it barely changes with price. What does change is his near-term read, and in 2026 that read has been unusually specific. In July he put a $60,000–$80,000 range on the rest of the year and said Bitcoin “probably holds $60,000”; it has, but price has since broken through the top of that range, peaking at $86,597. In late June he called the $59,000–$60,000 zone the level that mattered, four days before the actual low at $58,566. But in the same fortnight he told investors the market had “no energy” and “no new buyers” and to wait until March of next year — and Bitcoin promptly rallied 38.2%. In September his instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor was wrong within three days. Two weeks later, with Bitcoin near $84,000, he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”, the opposite lean to his April view. Three of the ten dated calls below played out, five are still open, and two went against him.
诺沃格拉茨 1989 年加入 Goldman Sachs，在亚洲和拉美负责固定收益业务，并于 1998 年被选为合伙人。2002 年他以 principal 身份转投 Fortress Investment Group，后来担任总裁及 Fortress Macro Fund 的首席投资官。2018 年他创办 Galaxy Digital，如今是一家纳斯达克上市公司，为机构提供交易、顾问、资产管理、质押、托管与代币化服务。他毕业于普林斯顿大学经济系，身家估计为 $5.8 billion。
理解 2026 年的 Galaxy，关键在于它已经不只是一家加密公司。公司已完全退出比特币挖矿，并把那些场地重建为 AI 与高性能计算数据中心，核心是德州的 1.6 吉瓦 Helios 园区，客户包括 CoreWeave。这次转向发生在残酷的加密行情之中：Galaxy 在 2025 年四季度录得每股 $1.08 亏损，而市场预期是 $0.92——股价单日下跌 16.87%——随后在 2026 年一季度因数字资产价格下跌录得 $216 million 净亏损，营收下降 22% 至约 $10 billion。所以当他说自己看多时，他谈的是一本一直在亏钱的账，而他所坐的位置上，另一半业务如今正在向 AI 公司卖电。这两个事实都该记在案上。
Sources: galaxy.com · x.com/novogratz · dated third-party coverage (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Benzinga, Stocktwits, The Daily Hodl)
自上而下的宏观，主权债务优先。诺沃格拉茨把比特币看作一张财政纪律的成绩单：赤字、债务占 GDP 的路径、美元，以及美联储因此被迫采取的行动。从那里他向下推演资金流与市场管道——边际买家是谁、投机资金是否已轮动到 AI 股票或体育博彩、Strategy 的资产负债表正在如何侵蚀信心——最后才谈点位。与多数基金掌舵人不同，他会把点位说出口：一年的区间、一个关键支撑区、一个能告诉他支撑是否守住的数字。他最强的地方是识别承压区域；最弱的地方是判断情绪拐点，他一再在低点前几天最为悲观。
Structurally bullish on Bitcoin for debt-and-debasement reasons that do not move with price, and turning more constructive near term: his July base case was $60k–$80k, but by late September, with BTC above that ceiling, he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him.
Ten dated statements from a rolling 2026 sample — seven from dated third-party coverage, two from his own X account, one from his own podcast's clip — each re-fetched from its source and confirmed verbatim on that page before it was charted. The split below is the point of the dossier: when Novogratz named a number he was mostly right, and when he described the market's mood he was mostly wrong, sometimes within the same week. The 27 June and 24 June cards are three days apart and pull in opposite directions; both are here.
“I still like the chart. It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end.”
Said on All Things Markets, the podcast he co-hosts with Anthony Scaramucci, in the episode published on 26 September; the show's own account posted the clip two days later. It is a softer claim than a target (“will not surprise me”), but it names a level and a deadline, and it marks a turn. In April he said it was “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and in July his base case topped out at $80,000. From $84,076 BTC has traded between $83,479 (−0.7%) and $86,490 (+2.9%) and sits at $84,009 (−0.1%) today, still needing +19% to reach $100k. The deadline is 31 December, after this chart ends, so it is logged open. The card is dated to the episode, not the clip; the episode discusses the 15 September Senate vote, so it was recorded after it.
𝕏 Post“It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end” — All Things Markets clip on X, posted 28 Sep 2026 (episode of 26 Sep 2026)↗ x.com“Clarity isn't dead!! Lots of negotiating over the weekend. My instinct is the bill makes it to the floor. It all depends on if we get the White House to move on ethics to see if we get a law.”
The CLARITY Act was the first item on his own list of what Bitcoin needed to reach $100k, so this was a market call as much as a political one — and it was falsifiable. It failed: the bill lost its procedural Senate vote on 15 September, three days later, short of the 60 needed. So the falsifiable half of the post was wrong inside three days — but the tape never punished it. From $77,204 BTC dipped to $75,590 (−2.1%), then ran to $86,597 (+12.2%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+8.8%) today. Wrong on the bill, right side of the price: logged open rather than against, because the chart does not support scoring it a loss. His own verdict the morning after: “Govt feels broken.”
𝕏 Post“Clarity isn't dead!!” — Mike Novogratz on X, 12 Sep 2026↗ x.com“It's the govts inability to deal with its spending addiction that keeps me bullish BTC even in a year where the energy in the crypto space is low.”
Posted on the July deficit print — $334bn in, $766bn out, a $432bn hole in one month — with Bitcoin flat on its back near the lows. He stayed long the thesis anyway, and it worked: from $63,409 BTC dipped only −0.9% to $62,844 before running +36.6% to $86,597, and it is +32.5% at $84,009 today. The cleanest bullish call in this sample.
SourceUS fiscal deficits keep Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz bullish on Bitcoin (The Daily Hodl, reporting his 13 Aug X post)↗ dailyhodl.com“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000. There's too many people who have bought into the Bitcoin story as its own store of value for it to go away”
His most precise call of the year: a base case of $60,000–$80,000 for the rest of 2026, with $100k requiring three things he named — the Clarity Act, Fed cuts and a reignited buyer base. The floor held. From $64,670 the lowest BTC has traded is $62,773 (−2.9%), comfortably above $60k. The ceiling did not hold: BTC first closed above $80,000 on 28 August, peaked at $86,597 (+33.9%), 8.2% through the top of his range, and trades at $84,009 (+29.9%) today, some 5.0% over the $80,000 top. The floor call is what is charted here and it held; the top of the range has broken, so the range as a whole was set too low. None of his three $100k conditions has been met and $100k has not come, though by 26 September he was saying it would not surprise him (see that card).
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Every young kid who used to buy Solana is buying Hynix or some memory company”
An observation about where speculative money had gone, not a price target — but it was a dated claim that Solana's marginal buyer had left, and charted against price it aged badly. From $76.31 SOL dipped just −5.8% to $71.89, then ran +60.0% to $122.08 and holds $118.17 (+54.9%) — outperforming the Bitcoin he was defending in the same interview. Logged went against on the evidence, with the caveat that he never put a number on SOL.
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Bessent came and piled on as a strong dollar guy. You know, strong dollar is weak Bitcoin.”
He explained the sell-off as a “MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence” compounded by a hawkish Fed and a Treasury Secretary suddenly talking the dollar up — with Strategy sitting on roughly $14bn of unrealised losses and traders, in his words, trying to “jam Bitcoin super down and explode him.” It is a diagnosis, not a target, so it is logged open. Worth noting what happened next: he said it at $59,495, two days before the low at $58,566 (−1.6%), after which BTC rallied +45.6% to $86,597 and now sits +41.2% higher.
SourceBillionaire investor reveals key reasons behind Bitcoin's decline (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“I wish I had compared the Alibaba chart and the Bitcoin chart before I bought it,”
On his podcast he called a hold of the $59,000–$60,000 area “stunningly important”, said a break would open the door to $45,000, and gave the market a tripwire for the following week: around $55,000 meant lower to come, near $62,000 meant the support had held. The tripwire fired bullish. From $60,022 the low was $58,566 (−2.4%) on 1 July — within touching distance of his zone and four days ahead of the actual bottom — then $62,554 printed on 4 July and BTC ran +44.3% to $86,597. His $45,000 never came. The even-odds bet he attached to it — $45k before $85k — has now resolved: BTC closed above $85,000 on 22 September without revisiting $45k.
SourceGalaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says a turn in Alibaba could signal Bitcoin has bottomed (Stocktwits / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
Debating Anthony Scaramucci, he argued the bid had simply gone — and told long-term investors to wait until “March of next year before you scratch your head”. Six days later Bitcoin bottomed. From $62,662 it fell only −6.5% to $58,566 and then rallied +38.2% to $86,597, sitting +34.1% higher today — and it did it without the Fed pivot he said the debasement trade was waiting for. A dated, falsifiable read on sentiment that the tape refuted inside three months.
SourceBillionaire investor issues Bitcoin warning — why he's ‘worried’ about BTC's future (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“We actually need inflation”
The engine under every bullish thing he says: with US debt near $39.2 trillion, his view is that Washington cannot grow out of it and must quietly inflate it away — run 4% while promising 2% for a decade — with the risk being that expectations unanchor and the managed burn becomes a spiral. That is a multi-year macro thesis with no level and no deadline, so it is logged open. For the record, BTC is +26.7% since, from $66,293 to $84,009, having first fallen −11.7% to $58,566.
SourceVeteran investor reveals one way out of $40 trillion U.S. debt (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“It's not my prediction that we break [$100,000] this year”
Said on Galaxy's Q1 earnings call, the same day the firm reported a $216 million net loss. A rare bull publicly refusing a bullish number: he argued a move back over $100k needed Fed easing that “ugly inflation prints” from the war in Iran would prevent. So far he is right — from $77,367 the highest BTC has managed is $86,597 (+11.9%), and it is $84,009 (+8.6%) today, needing +19% in under three months to prove him wrong. But the call runs to year-end, past this chart, so it stays open rather than scored. Note the cost of the same view being early: BTC fell −24.3% to $58,566 in between. He has since softened it: on 26 September he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him (charted separately).
SourceBitcoin won't crack $100K this year, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.comOutcomes are our read of his stated bias against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring. Each card is dated by when the words were actually said — the source's own publication date, or the tweet's timestamp, or a date the page itself states (the 28 April card is a Q1 earnings call the article names explicitly; the 26 September card is dated to the podcast episode, not the clip posted two days later). Anything whose horizon runs past this chart window is logged still open, never as a win. Near-term marks can flip.
诺沃格拉茨不是一个恰好持仓的评论员——他是一家纳斯达克上市公司的创始人、CEO、董事长和最大的公众面孔，而这家公司的收入取决于加密活动，并且越来越取决于供给 AI 的电力。他的 X 账号带有正式的 Galaxy 关联标识。他说的每一句话，都是从那把椅子上说出来的。
公司由他创办、由他经营、由他担任董事长。Galaxy 为机构提供交易、借贷、资产管理、质押与托管——所以更活跃的加密市场直接等于更好的季度。公司在 2026 年一季度亏损 $216m，营收下降 22% 至约 $10bn；此前 2025 年四季度的业绩不及预期，曾令股价单场下跌 16.87%。
Galaxy 已完全退出比特币挖矿，并把那些场地改造成 AI 与高性能计算数据中心——德州的 1.6GW Helios 园区、包括 CoreWeave 在内的客户、德州第二处 500 英亩场地，以及一笔 $75m 的球场冠名协议。他一半的生意如今正是靠他口中「抽干加密买盘」的那场 AI 热潮赚钱——当他解释投机资金去了哪里时，这一点值得记在心里。
他的身家估计为 $5.8 billion，其中大部分与 Galaxy 和数字资产绑定，而且他公开为加密立法游说——上面那条判断里的 CLARITY Act，正是一部他自己公司会受益的法案。与持币者利益一致，且利益关系公开。
“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000.”
20 Jul 2026 · 奏效的那一次判断“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
24 Jun 2026 · 距低点六天“Govt feels broken. 18 months of work between our industry, Democrats, and Republicans, and Clarity falls apart on the 5-yard line,”
16 Sep 2026 · 在他自己的直觉落空之后引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
There is no video library to link — Novogratz hosts no YouTube channel of his own, and Galaxy's is corporate. His market talk lives in other people's programmes and on X, which is exactly why every call above links to a dated page carrying the quoted words. The appearances charted here are the SALT and All-In Markets podcasts with Anthony Scaramucci (13–24 Jun), his own All Things Markets episode with Scaramucci (27 Jun), a further podcast recap (29 Jun), a July interview (20 Jul), Galaxy's Q1 earnings call (28 Apr), his own X posts of 13 Aug and 12 Sep, and the 26 Sep All Things Markets episode.
Galaxy Digital（NASDAQ: GLXY）的创始人、CEO 兼董事长。他在高盛工作十一年，1998 年成为合伙人，随后以 principal 与宏观基金首席投资官身份加入 Fortress Investment Group，并于 2018 年创办 Galaxy。他毕业于普林斯顿大学经济系，身家估计 58 亿美元，是市场上被引用最多的机构派比特币多头之一。
His stated 2026 base case, given in July, was a $60,000–$80,000 range for the rest of the year; Bitcoin has since broken above the top of it. He said in April that it is “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and named three conditions for six figures: the CLARITY Act passing, the Fed cutting rates, and a new buyer base. None has happened, but on 26 September he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”. Longer term he argues US debt can only be inflated away, which is his structural bull case.
Mixed, and the chart above says so: three of ten dated 2026 calls played out, five are still open and two went against him. He named the $59k–$60k bottom zone four days before the low and his $60,000 floor has held — but he also told investors in late June there were “no new buyers” and to wait until March 2027, six days before a 38.2% rally, and his September instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor failed within three days.
他是基金与公司的高管，不是持牌顾问，而且他公司的收入依赖于他所评论的那个市场——Galaxy 为机构做加密交易、借贷与管理，他本人也公开为加密立法游说。他在这里的战绩确实好坏参半。把他的观点当成有记录、有日期、且有利益关系的意见——永远不要盲目照着交易。
诺沃格拉茨从主权债务出发自上而下推演，然后说出一个区间并待在里面。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
