@MerlijnTrader
一个荷兰图表账号，每次只发一个观点，全大写，配一张标注过的图：今年正在与 2018 / 2022 / 2017 押韵，而这就是决定一切的关键位。产量高、极易读懂，而且——在这个门类里相当罕见——几乎每次都附带一个日后可以核对的数字。于是我们核对了。
简而言之。 Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn 以 @MerlijnTrader 的身份向约 38 万粉丝发帖，同时经营一个小得多的 YouTube 频道（1.62 万订阅，自 2021 年 6 月起活跃，累计约 110 万次观看），把同一套每日论点再用视频讲一遍。该 X 账号带有 @cryptorover 的关联徽章——Crypto Rover 的商业标签——也就是说这两个账号属于同一个媒体运营体，而不是碰巧观点一致的两个独立声音。他的 YouTube 频道把自己的项目写得很明白：“The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”，全程直播记录。
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
以分形为先的技术分析。引擎是类比：找出一个图形与当下相似的过去年份（2017、2018、2022），假设结构会重演，然后点出能证明它的关键位。围绕这套方法，他使用 威科夫吸筹阶段（spring、mark-up）、均线交叉、Stochastic RSI、一块约 30 个周期顶部指标的面板，以及链上或宏观消息（验证者退出队列、联储利率预期、ETF 申请）作为佐证。优点是可证伪——他会锁定“$60K is the decision”或“DCA zone $48–59K”这样的数字。缺点正是同一承诺的反面：当类比没有重演时，结论不只是偏早，而是完全反了，而且他的帖子几乎从不给读者仓位大小或失效价位。
结构性看多——反复出现的结论是底部已经出现，而人群把它卖掉了。这组样本里的看空帖都是短线且带条件的；看多的那些才是他的核心论点。
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under 所提到的位置. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
对一个高产的图表账号来说，这是档案里最要紧的部分：Merlijn 的公开生意是 注意力与推广，而且就从发布分析的同一个账号出售。这些都没有隐瞒——全写在他自己的链接页上——但应该和图表并排看。
他公开的链接页出售 “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”，并邀请就 “for Business/Partnerships” 私信。因此项目方可以向发布市场分析的同一个账号购买曝光。除非他另有说明，否则请假定帖子中点名的任何代币或平台都可能存在商业关系。
同一页面把他包装成 顾问兼商业教练，并提供“Book a Strategy Call”——受众被转化为服务费收入，而这奖励的是发帖数量和笃定的语气，不是审慎。
他的 X 账号带有 @cryptorover 的关联徽章。同一运营体下的两个账号彼此附和，并不等于两次独立确认——算一次，不要算两次。
他的 YouTube 频道把项目写作 “turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”，全程直播记录。这是披露，不是利益冲突——但也意味着在结构性看多的 Bitcoin 帖子背后，有一份结构性看多的 Bitcoin 持仓。
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · 两条腿都错的路线图“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · 在 ETH 真正见底前四天“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · 跌破了却没有暴跌的死亡交叉线引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
他几乎每天都在一个远小于其 X 粉丝量的频道上发布 Bitcoin 视频。近期上传，日期取自频道订阅源：
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge Mistake短线回落、长线看多——正是本档案所绘的立场。10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes Next支撑他 2026 年多数判断的 2022 年分形。08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY Begun没有给出价位的看多周期论点。07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson Hole八月上涨前的宏观事件框架。28 Aug 2026一位荷兰加密图表分析师，在 X 上以 @MerlijnTrader 的身份向约 38 万粉丝发帖，另有一个较小的 YouTube 频道（1.62 万订阅）。他的姓氏未公开。他以全大写、单张图表的帖子闻名，把当下市场与某个过去年份——2017、2018、2022——作比较，并点出一个决定结果的关键位。
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
他公开出售推广：他的公开链接页列有“TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”，邀请商务与合作私信，并提供付费策略通话。他的 X 账号还带有 @cryptorover 的关联徽章。除非另有说明，否则请假定被点名的项目可能存在商业关系。
分形类比加一个决策位。他把某个过去年份的图形结构叠到当下——威科夫吸筹、金叉/死叉、Stochastic RSI、约 30 个周期顶部信号的面板——然后锁定一个数字，比如“$60K is the decision”或“DCA zone $48–59K”。这让他很容易被核对；也意味着一旦类比失效，结论不是偏早，而是完全反了。
Merlijn 靠类比交易：找出这张图正在复制哪一年，然后守住一个关键位。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真刀真枪地量一量。
