@MarkYusko
这位捐赠基金经理谈的是公允价值，而不是价格目标。Yusko 把比特币放进一个网络价值模型里跑，模型说便宜时就买，并给周期标上具体日期——这让他异常可被核查，也意味着他的失误同样可被核查。
简而言之。 Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn — a date that came and went with no new low. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
Yusko（1963 年生，在西雅图长大）拥有圣母大学理学学士与芝加哥大学MBA 学位。他于 1993 年 10 月以助理投资官身份进入圣母大学投资办公室，并在那里担任高级投资总监至 1998 年，随后创立并掌管 UNC Management Company，即北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校捐赠基金的投资办公室，任期 1998 至 2004 年。两处他都带去了重仓另类资产的「捐赠基金模式」。2004 年他创立 Morgan Creek Capital Management，2018 年创立 Morgan Creek Digital，后者与 Bitwise 合作推出面向机构的 Digital Asset Index Fund。2026 年的一次访谈称其数字部门管理着 $3.2 billion of assets under advisement。
他的履历并非一路光鲜，本档案照说不误：他与 Salient Partners 合作的 Endowment Fund 一度增长到约 $3.5 billion，随后因业绩问题他在 2013 年 1 月被免去该基金职务。在加密领域他的信念由来已久——他在 X 上的名字 「Two Point One Quadrillion」正是现存聪的数量——长期数字亦然：在 2026 年 2 月 15 日的访谈中，他说自己「pretty comfortable」认为比特币会达到 $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029。同一场访谈里还有一条本档案无法作图、但不会隐瞒的判断：他把本轮周期的底部放在 $58,000–$63,000，时间约在 2026 年 9 月 30 日至 10 月 1 日。点位近乎完美——比特币迄今的低点是 $58,566——但它出现在 7 月 1 日，早了三个月，而在这中间的几个月里他一直告诉人们低点已经过去。
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
估值优先的宏观，按捐赠基金的节奏。Yusko 不画趋势线。他问的是一个网络值多少钱——把梅特卡夫定律套到比特币的用户与交易上，经由 Tim Peterson 的模型——然后在价格低于那个数字时每周买入，不去猜哪一天。围绕它的是自上而下的流动性、法币贬值、期货市场持仓，以及四年减半周期的解读；他把这个周期当作精确到距上一轮顶部 364 天的日历。优点是他会在吓退所有人的回撤中继续买。缺点也是同一个特质：一个在 $70,000 说「便宜」的模型，在 $60,000 同样会说「便宜」，而他对周期时点的判断一再过早。
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a price in the $80,000s, a $600–700k 2029 target). He spent early September calling the tape “bear market action” and pointing at a 5 October low, then turned: on 22 September he said the uptrend to $125,000 and $250,000 had begun, and on 2 October he posted “Looking Like Uptober”. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His 6 September warning — a possible drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low — did not. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because it predates the price window.
“Looking Like Uptober… 🧡🚀”
Three days before his own 5 October cycle-low date, he quote-posted Morgan Creek's Digital Currents episode — “‘Uptober’ or head fake?” — and answered it: Uptober. A day earlier he had hedged the same idea (“when everyone starts taking about something, it usually doesn’t happen”). Posted at 20:34 UTC, so the chart's 2 October point of $84,842 is that day's midnight price; the next point, $84,506, was barely different. Since then BTC has topped at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and sits at $84,009 (−1.0%). Five days in — open.
𝕏 Post“Looking Like Uptober…” — @MarkYusko on X↗ x.com“So, I think this will be not like straight up to 125 and straight up to 250, but I do think the durability of the trend will be better.”
Talking to Coinage's Zack Guzman (uploaded 22 September), he said Bitcoin had moved from distribution into accumulation and that the path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun — slowly, not vertically. It is a flip from his 6 September “not out of the woods” call, made before his own 5 October date. He made it on the best close of the whole rebound: $86,597, which BTC has not bettered since. Low since $83,479 (−3.6%), now $84,009 (−3.0%). A long-horizon thesis two weeks old — open.
SourceWhy the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. It worked: BTC has not closed lower since, ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+11.1%). He called it on the exact low of the September dip.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. A month later the exit is offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $122 (+18.3%) and sits at $118 (+14.5%). Still far too early to score a multi-year exit made on governance grounds — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. His date has now passed and the drop never came. The worst close was $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September; BTC then ran to $86,597 (+8.5%), closed $86,490 on 5 October itself and sits at $84,009 (+5.2%). By 2 October he was posting “Looking Like Uptober” himself — went against.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
他今年最好的一次判断，而且没有报任何点位。在比特币 $58,566 低点十天后、BTC 报 $64,111 时，他对 Cointelegraph 表示 Morgan Creek 自 2 月起就按 $105,000–$108,000 的公允价值每周买入，并会持续到 10 月。此后 BTC 涨到 $86,597 (+35.1%)，现报 $84,009 (+31.0%)，过程中最大回撤仅 −2.9%。
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and only got back above his call price in September, peaking at $86,597 (+11.8%); now $84,009 (+8.5%).
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and after the vote recovered to $86,597 (+10.6%); now $84,009 (+7.3%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
Said on 11 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. He told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. From the anchor Bitcoin lost −16.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $84,009 (+20.0%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026; the 22 September and 2 October calls were checked on 7 October 2026. Those two are days old — near-term marks can flip.
Yusko 不卖信号也不卖课程。他经营一家公司，需要知道的利益关系很直白：他是在电视上谈自己仓位的资产配置者，背后有一只基金和一个长期目标。
他 2004 年创立的公司——按捐赠基金模式运作的全权委托与顾问业务。公开看多比特币，与一门向它配置资金的生意是分不开的。
2018 年设立的数字资产部门，与 Bitwise 合作推出机构指数基金；2026 年的一次访谈称其规模为 $3.2 billion of assets under advisement。
他说自己大约一半的净资产在比特币及与比特币相关的资产上，而他建议别人只配 「five, eight, or ten percent」——一种罕见的坦率披露，也是对其看多论调强度打个折扣的理由。
对于无权分享网络费用的治理代币——他把 Ethereum 和 Uniswap 与 Solana 并列点名——他称之为「kind of scammy」。读他关于比特币对比山寨币的论述时，要知道他的敞口在哪里。
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · 一句话说清的估值准则“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · 他实际如何执行“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · 代价不小的一次判断，早了四个月“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · 在自己的 10 月 5 日之前仍保持谨慎引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
Yusko 没有自己的任何阵地——没有频道、没有通讯、没有付费群。他上的是别人的节目，上面每一条判断都是在那里说出的。以下是档案背后的第一手视频，标题与上传日期均已核实：
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Path to $250K Already Started: Mark YuskoCoinage — the “durability of the trend” interview behind the 22 September call.22 Sep 2026
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV——上文作图的那场「it's on sale」访谈。16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph——7 月 11 日那条判断背后的每周加仓访谈。10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily——$58,000–$63,000 的底部与 2029 年 $600–700k 的目标，刚好落在图表窗口之外。8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast——他全年反复讲的期货压价与 AI 泡沫框架。7 Jan 2026Mark W. Yusko（1963 年生）是 Morgan Creek Capital Management 的创始人、CEO 兼首席投资官，该公司由他在 2004 年创办。此前他作为 UNC Management Company 的负责人（1998–2004）掌管北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校的捐赠基金，并在圣母大学投资办公室担任高级投资总监（1993–1998）。他于 2018 年创立 Morgan Creek Digital，是任期最长的机构派比特币多头之一。
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. On 22 September he told Coinage the slow path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up by roughly a third and by more than a tenth. His 6 September call for a drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low also missed — the date passed with Bitcoin in the $80,000s. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
估值优先，且很慢。他用梅特卡夫定律估算比特币网络值多少钱，只要价格低于这个公允价值就每周买入，而不是去择时抄底，并在其上叠加一个被他精确定日的四年减半周期——距上一轮顶部 364 天，由此把本轮周期的拐点定在 2026 年 10 月 5 日。他完全回避杠杆和短线点位，并轻视那些无权分享网络费用的治理代币。
Yusko 买的是一个数字，不是一张图：先算公允价值，每周买入，不去抓那个精确的低点。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真刀真枪地量一量。
