@CarpeNoctom
An Ichimoku chartist who runs trading at the crypto ETF issuer Canary Capital and posts short, dated chart calls to about 149,000 followers. In 2026 his turns were mostly well timed. On 29 May, with Bitcoin at $73,652, he said it was probably headed for a 200-week moving average test, and six days later it was there. His April title “Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026” is still a long way off, his September “M top” call was followed by a breakout, and he dropped his 6 October “rdy to rock” setup himself the next day.
简而言之。 Josh Olszewicz trades Bitcoin and Ether from the Ichimoku cloud and classic chart patterns, and posts the setups on X as @CarpeNoctom. On our sample of eight in-window posts the record is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The best call was the bearish turn of 29 May: from $73,652 he expected a test of the 200-week moving average, which came on 4 June at $64,047 (−13.0%). He also called the July inverse head-and-shoulders target of 70k+ and Ether's August breakout (+32.2% in two weeks). The misses were the 11 September M top, which pointed to $70k–$72k while Bitcoin went to $86,597 instead, and a 6 October 4-hour breakout call that he abandoned the next day (“so much for that”). His 20 April title, a path to a new all-time high in 2026, is still open.
Josh Olszewicz 是 Canary Capital 的副总裁兼交易主管，该公司是一家发行加密 ETF 的美国资产管理公司。他的 X 简介写着“Canary.Capital PM & Head of Trading”。据 Canary 自己的团队页面介绍，他此前曾在 BraveNewCoin 主管加密研究，在 Techemy Capital 担任投资组合经理，并在 Valkyrie Investments 担任研究主管。进入加密领域之前，他在大学讲授实验科学，拥有人类生物学学士学位和生物技术硕士学位。自2009年3月起，他便以 @CarpeNoctom 的身份活跃在 X 上。
他的内容按周节奏发布：一期 “Setup Sunday” 视频、一期 “Macro Monday”、一档 “Alt Coins” 节目和周五的 “Broad Market Review” 直播，另外每周发布关于 CME Commitments of Traders（CoT）数据和美国现货 ETF 资金流的帖子。他的大部分图表帖子既涉及加密也涉及股票。本页只评估他对 Bitcoin 和 Ether 的判断，因为本站追踪的是这两者的价格。
He also discloses a miss of his own. On 3 June 2026 he reposted his March 2018 post “ya, still on track for 33k by July” with the line “Heroes get remembered but bad calls never die”. Bitcoin did not come close to $33k in 2018. His weekly CoT posts read the data as bearish for most of the window, including through the July–September rally. We treat those as data reports, not price calls, and do not chart them. Eight posts qualified as calls, and several more were examined and excluded. Each is listed with its reason in the verified corpus.
Sources: x.com/CarpeNoctom (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · canary.capital/about · canaryetfs.com · linktr.ee/carpenoctom · YouTube oEmbed
云图说了算。Olszewicz 依据 Ichimoku cloud（“kumo”）判断趋势：在云上方为看涨，在云下方为看跌，突破云层即为信号。他将其与经典形态结合：头肩形态与反向头肩形态、双顶（“M”）、下降楔形以及 Fibonacci 目标。大多数帖子只有一句话和一张图，附带一个目标或失效位。这使它们易于评分。他的强项是顺势转向：在本样本中，他在6月下跌前夕转为看空，又在8月突破前再次转为看涨。弱点是从未触发的形态：9月的 M top 把一次停滞误读为顶部。
接近中性，并随图表变化。他在4月和5月初看涨，5月29日价格跌破日线云层时转为看空，7月和8月再次转为看涨，随后在9月提示可能见顶。9月30日，他写道自己“never seen Q3 this bullish”。
Eight dated posts from @CarpeNoctom, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The record is strongest at the turns: the 29 May call for a 200-week moving average test, the 5 June “no bottom yet”, the 20 July 70k+ target and Ether's August breakout all played out. The 11 September M top and the 6 October “rdy to rock” setup went against, and the April all-time-high title is still open.
“4h $BTC looks rdy to rock (iHS)”
A bullish inverse head-and-shoulders on the 4-hour chart, posted at $85,771, the day after Bitcoin's October high. Four hours later he corrected his own post to “looked*”, and on 7 October he added: “well, so much for that, on to the next trade”. No higher daily mark followed. Bitcoin fell to $81,686 (−4.8%) on 9 October and $81,408 (−5.1%) on 18 October, and it is at $81,810 (−4.6%) now. He called the miss himself, within a day. Went against.
𝕏 Post“4h $BTC looks rdy to rock (iHS)” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“looks like a potential M top here, downside fibs = 70-72”
日线图上的看空双顶判读，发布于 $76,555，Fibonacci 目标为 $70k–$72k。下跌没有到来。此后最低的每日标记价是9月16日的 $75,590（−1.3%），离目标很远。一周后 Bitcoin 突破至 $86,597（+13.1%），目前位于 $81,810（+6.9%）。落空。
𝕏 Post“looks like a potential M top here, downside fibs = 70-72” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“ethereum:native prepping for breakout”
对 Ether 的突破判断，在数周横盘后发布于 $1,902。8月11日它回落至 $1,871（−1.6%），随后突破：8月22日 $2,515（+32.2%），9月22日 $2,775（+45.9%）。目前位于 $2,403（+26.3%）。应验。
𝕏 Post“ethereum:native prepping for breakout” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“a small nudge and $BTC is in full breakout territory iHS target = 70k+”
反向头肩形态目标，发布于 $64,670。推进用了一个月。Bitcoin 先在8月2日滑落至 $62,773（−2.9%）。随后在 8月21日首次收于 $70k 上方，报 $73,021（+12.9%），并继续上涨至 $86,597（+33.9%）。目前位于 $81,810（+26.5%）。应验。
𝕏 Post“a small nudge and $BTC is in full breakout territory” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“$BTC pi cycle bottom suggests more no bottom yet”
周期指标判读，发布于 $63,811，即 Bitcoin 触及 200 周均线的次日。之后继续下跌：6月7日 $60,855（−4.6%），7月1日创下 2026 年低点 $58,566（−8.2%）。直到那时底部才形成。Bitcoin 随后涨至 $86,597（+35.7%），目前位于 $81,810（+28.2%）。应验。
𝕏 Post“$BTC pi cycle bottom suggests more no bottom yet” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“if channel support doesnt save this then we are probably headed for a 200WMA test bearish lean negated if/when price >79k above cloud”
看空转向，发布于 $73,652，当时 Bitcoin 位于日线云层下方并正在跌破头肩形态。通道支撑未能守住。6月4日 Bitcoin 标记价为 $64,047（−13.0%），他发帖称这是自2023年10月以来首次触及 200 周移动平均线。7月1日在 $58,566（−20.5%）见底。失效位——收盘站上 $79k——直到8月27日才以 $79,018 出现，已是三个月后。Bitcoin 目前位于 $81,810（+11.1%），但该判断针对的是测试，而测试确实到来。应验。
𝕏 Post“1D $BTC — below daily Cloud now, bottom of channel, active H&S breakdown” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“4h $BTC poised for a Sun open attempt higher”
4 小时图上的短线判断，发布于 $78,677。Bitcoin 上冲：5月7日 $81,437（+3.5%），5月11日 $82,018（+4.2%），为其春季高点。当晚他写道，这次从回撤中恢复是有史以来最快的，“if the low holds”。低点没有守住：到7月1日 Bitcoin 跌至 $58,566（−25.6%）。目前位于 $81,810（+4.0%）。短线判断应验；之后更大的走势方向相反。
𝕏 Post“4h $BTC poised for a Sun open attempt higher” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“Setup Sunday: Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026”
The title of his weekly video, posted at $73,841, laying out a path to a new all-time high this year. The record is the October 2025 peak, above $120,000. Bitcoin first rose to $82,018 (+11.1%) on 11 May, then fell to $58,566 (−20.7%) on 1 July. It recovered to $86,597 (+17.3%) on 22 September and is at $81,810 (+10.8%) now. With ten weeks left in 2026, the record is still far away. Open.
𝕏 Post“Setup Sunday: Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. X's API writes the BTC and ETH token tags as “bitcoin:native” and “ethereum:native”, and we quote them as returned. We did not chart his weekly CoT and ETF-flow posts (data reports), hedged posts (“bull flag possible”), a 3 May post that was conditional on the low holding (it did not hold), or a later Puell Multiple post that restated the July bull case and would have scored as a win. From the 20 October refresh we also left out hedged or pattern-watch posts: “4h $BTC FW potential” (17 September), “1D $ETH unconfirmed hidden bull div” (8 October) and “$ETH H&S watch” (14 October), along with ratio charts such as SOL/BTC and ETH/BTC. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark. The 6 October card is graded from his own follow-ups, “looked*” the same day and “well, so much for that, on to the next trade” on 7 October, and from price. The “在那次判断时投入 $1,000” line assumes buying on the post date; for the bearish 29 May and 11 September cards, that line is not a short. Near-term marks can flip.
Olszewicz 的帖子和直播都是免费的。他的主要收入来自本职工作，他的链接页面上有一个交易所链接。以下是我们的发现。
他是 Canary Capital 的副总裁兼交易主管，该公司发行美国加密 ETF，包括 HBAR、Litecoin、Solana、SUI、TRX 和 XRP 基金。它没有列出 Bitcoin 或 Ether ETF。当他发帖谈论这些基金中的山寨币时，请记住他的雇主从中赚取费用。9月19日，他发帖“Time to buy some $SUIS ?”，而这正是 Canary 的 Staked SUI ETF 的代码。
他的 Linktree 上第一个链接是 Kraken Pro，经由一个带追踪的合作伙伴链接（kraken.pxf.io）。这类链接通常在有人注册或交易时向推荐人付费。我们在他的 X 帖子中没有发现交易所推荐推广。
“Setup Sunday”、“Macro Monday”和“Broad Market Review”节目在 X、YouTube 和 Twitch 上免费直播。我们没有发现付费通讯、付费群组或课程。
“if channel support doesnt save this then we are probably headed for a 200WMA test”
29 May 2026 · 应验的那次转向“Heroes get remembered but bad calls never die”
3 Jun 2026 · 转发他 2018 年的失误“never seen Q3 this bullish”
30 Sep 2026 · 谈 Bitcoin 7月至9月的上涨引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
Olszewicz 在 YouTube（@carpenoctom）、X 和 Twitch 上直播，并把每期节目发布到 X。周五的 “Broad Market Review” 涵盖加密、宏观和股票。我们能够核实的近期直播：
一位加密交易员和分析师，在 X 上以 @CarpeNoctom 身份向约 149,000 名关注者发帖。他是 Canary Capital 的副总裁兼交易主管，此前曾任 Valkyrie Investments 研究主管，并在 BraveNewCoin 主管加密研究。他的方法是 Ichimoku cloud 和经典图表形态。
On our sample of eight dated 2026 posts: five played out, one is still open, two went against. His 29 May call for a 200-week moving average test came true within six days, and his 70k+ Bitcoin and August Ether breakout calls were hit. His 11 September M top call went against, as did a 6 October breakout setup that he dropped himself the next day. His April all-time-high title is still open.
一种日本图表系统，根据过去的高点和低点绘制一条阴影带，即“cloud”或 kumo。价格在云层上方被视为上升趋势，在云层下方被视为下降趋势。Olszewicz 将突破云层作为信号。
未发现任何付费产品。他的帖子和直播都是免费的。他作为 Canary Capital 的交易主管领取薪酬，他的 Linktree 上有一个带追踪的 Kraken Pro 链接。
未公开,也不存在可信的数字。请忽略任何与该名字挂钩的具体数字。
Olszewicz 让云图来做判断。你的直觉有多接近？用 Trader Passport 真实测一测。
