@IvanOnTech
A Swedish software engineer who built one of crypto's biggest developer-education channels, then rebranded as a trader — his X bio now reads “Head Trader @ Bullmania” and sells a book, an indicator and a terminal. The stance is dated and public, so it can be graded. We graded five dated calls against real price.
简而言之。 Ivan Liljeqvist — Ivan on Tech — reaches roughly 494,000 followers on X and a long-running YouTube channel. He came up as a developer and educator: he co-founded the Web3 tooling company Moralis and the course platform Moralis Academy (formerly Ivan on Tech Academy). Since then he has repositioned as a trader, monetising a book, a paid indicator and a private community under the Bullmania brand. His 2026 posture is a single connected argument: he says he exited near the October 2025 top, stayed bearish through the first half of 2026, and flipped bullish on 15 June with the caveat that a bit more downside was still coming. On our rolling 2026 sample that flip was well timed — Bitcoin fell to $58,566 two weeks later, exactly as he said, then rallied. His February instruction not to buy the bounce was the miss: Bitcoin ran to $82,018 by 11 May and is +23.3% above the first day of our price window today. By 3 September the caveats were gone entirely — he was telling followers to buy every dip.
Ivan Liljeqvist 是瑞典开发者，曾在 KTH Royal Institute of Technology 学习计算机科学，2017 年在爱立信担任程序员期间创办了 Ivan on Tech YouTube 频道。频道最初的产品是技术讲解——区块链究竟如何运作——并成长为那个时代面向开发者、观看量最高的加密频道之一。
他把这批受众变成了两门生意。与 Filip Martinsson 共同创办的 Moralis Academy（原名 Ivan on Tech Academy）销售区块链与 Web3 开发课程。他联合创办并出任 CEO 的 Web3 开发者工具公司 Moralis，从包括 Coinbase Ventures 在内的投资方获得了机构风险投资。这门生意并未躲过上一轮下行：2023 年 1 月 Moralis 裁员，Liljeqvist 表示：“In response to significant economic change and shifting customer and market priorities, we have decided to reduce our headcount.”
如今的身份又不一样了。他的 X 简介把他描述为“Elite trader ($BTC, stocks, commodities)”以及 Head Trader at Bullmania——这个品牌出售一本书、一个“Money Line”指标、一个筛选终端和一个私密 Discord。读他的内容时这一点很重要：科普者的动机是解释，交易品牌的动机是被视为喊对了转折的人——而他 2026 年动态中很大一部分正是这个说法（“We got the top exactly in October”），并附上产品链接。
有一处需要更正，因为聚合类传记写错了：一份被广泛复制的资料把他列为 HEX 代币的推广者。原始记录显示恰恰相反——在 Cointelegraph 的镜头前辩论中，他质疑了 Richard Heart 对 HEX 的营销方式，并提出了与庞氏结构的类比。我们核实过，没有重复这一说法。
Sources: x.com/IvanOnTech (verified via X syndication) · bullmania.com · theblock.co · cointelegraph.com · cryptoadventure.com
先讲周期类比，再谈价位。 Ivan 的公开框架是历史押韵而非精确结构：2026 是“新的 2022”，200 周移动平均线是地板，顺序是底部 → 震荡 → 2027 年的“Valhalla”。他跨资产阅读市场——白银、AI 股票、Bitcoin——并论证它们之间的轮动，这对一个加密原生账号来说并不常见，也确实是他优势的一部分。他还会公开谈止损和仓位大小，这是多数网红账号不做的。弱点在于精确度：他的 X 帖子几乎从不带目标价、止损或失效位，而最锋利的判断往往被放在视频链接或付费产品后面，而不是写在帖子本身。
从 2025 年 10 月到 2026 年上半年看空，6 月 15 日起转多——并明确提醒还会先跌一点。这个数字反映的是他当前的立场：建设性但有耐心——他预期震荡到四季度，把真正的上涨放在 2027 年。
Five dated statements from Ivan on Tech, each captured verbatim and charted against real price. He is a cycle voice, so the calls are directional and conditional (“the bounce is dangerous”, “$60,000 was not the bottom”) rather than targets with stops — we judged them on what price actually did next. The sample is small on purpose: most of his 2026 feed is book promotion, video teasers whose claims live inside untranscribable YouTube uploads, or questions rather than positions. The 15 June bullish flip is the standout; the 11 February warning is the miss; the newest card, 3 September, is the same flip with the caveats stripped out.
“THIS IS THE TIME TO BE BULLISH!!!! UPSIDE FOR BITCOIN IS SO BIG DOWNSIDE SMALL DIP ARE FOR BUYING STFU AND BUY BUY BUY BUY (I was mega bear since October 2025, since early July 2026 bull)”
The 15 June flip with every caveat stripped out — and his most explicit instruction of the year, though still with no level, no target and no stop. Bitcoin was $77,297 when he posted. So far the dip he called small has been small: the lowest close since is $75,590 on 16 September, −2.2% below him, the high came the very next day, $81,265 on 4 September (+5.1%), and Bitcoin sits +4.0% above his mark today. Logged open — seventeen days is not a verdict, and a post with no target has nothing to hit. One thing it does settle is his own timeline: the parenthesis dates the flip to “early July”, but the post charted below has him turning bullish on 15 June, a fortnight earlier than he now tells it.
𝕏 Post“REMINDER: THIS IS THE TIME TO BE BULLISH!!!!” — @IvanOnTech on X↗ x.com“We are repeating 2022 bottom quite exact ✅ 200W hit ⏳then chop ⏳then Valhalla … By Q4 we should reach the end of chop … And to be frank I still expect a bit more downside”
样本中最好的一次表态，而且比单纯的方向切换更好：他转多，同时在同一条帖子里说还会再跌一点。事情正是按这个顺序发生的。从 $65,709 起，Bitcoin 于 7 月 1 日下跌 −10.9% 至 $58,566，整个夏天震荡，随后到 9 月 4 日上涨 +23.7% 至 $81,265。今天它高于他的标记 +22.3%。帖子其余部分——四季度“震荡结束”、2027 年“Valhalla”——尚未到期，此处不计分。
𝕏 Post“TIME TO BECOME BULLISH … 200W hit ⏳then chop ⏳then Valhalla” — @IvanOnTech on X↗ x.com“It is still in bear trend, but dont get surprised if it pumps heavily should it go BULL TREND”
一句话里包含了交易的两个方向——而两个方向都发生了。从 $2,132 起，Ethereum 下跌 −26.6% 至 $1,566，随后上涨 +23.4% 至 $2,632，今天高于他的标记 +20.8%。记为待定，因为一条覆盖两种结果的帖子不可能错，因此也不可能对。它出现在本页恰恰是因为略去它会美化战绩——他对“末日论”情绪的逆向解读不错，但他拒绝给出方向。
𝕏 Post“PEAK ETHEREUM DOOMERISM!!” — @IvanOnTech on X↗ x.com“I don't think $60,000 was the bottom. You can pray for it of course but it won't help. Trend is still down. The few % bounces are tiny if you zoom out”
他在窗口期内唯一可证伪的判断，而且兑现了。他说 2 月接近 $60,000 的低点撑不住底部——确实没撑住：Bitcoin 于 7 月 1 日打出 $58,566，比他被引用时的 $74,297 低 −21.2%。计为兑现，并明确说明两点保留。“Trend is still down”一开始是错的：在下跌到来之前，Bitcoin 到 5 月 11 日先上涨 +10.4% 至 $82,018。而那波下跌此后已被买回——今天 Bitcoin 高于他的价位 +8.2%，因此包裹在一个正确判断外面的看空框架并未经受住时间。
SourceAnalyst says Bitcoin's “big flush” still lies ahead — Ivan Liljeqvist quoted↗ cryptoadventure.com“Don't trust the pump! This week, I've been warning that the bounce is dangerous. Wait for prices within the rectangle to buy.”
A dated instruction not to buy — and the bounce he called dangerous ran for three more months. His 11 February mark has now rolled out of our 210-day price window, so this card is measured from the window's first day, 23 February, with Bitcoin at $65,192: from there it rose +25.8% to $82,018 on 11 May before anything broke. The lower prices he told followers to wait for did not arrive until $58,566 on 1 July, −10.2% below that mark and nearly five months later; today Bitcoin is +23.3% above it. Directionally vindicated in the end, wrong for the entire period a follower was actually sitting in cash — and because the post names no level and no invalidation, nothing in it told you when to stop waiting.
𝕏 Post“Don't trust the pump!” — @IvanOnTech on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated lean against real price, not his own scoring. Four of the five quotes are verbatim X posts captured from X's own syndication endpoint and re-checked against a second independent endpoint; the fifth is a press-quoted post confirmed on two independent live pages. Everything we examined and rejected — promos, teasers, out-of-window posts — is listed in the verified corpus rather than quietly dropped. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, and the window rolls: his 11 February post now sits before the first day we hold a price for, so that card is measured from 23 February and says so. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Ivan 在三个时期用三种方式变现同一批受众——开发者课程、一家拿到风投的工具公司，以及现在的交易品牌。当下这个品牌，在他发布的内容与他出售的东西之间联系最紧密，读他的判断时正该记住这一点。
他的 X 简介在 bullmania.com/book 卖书，在 bullmania.com 提供“free trading training”。他公开推销过 “Money Line”指标、Bullmania Terminal 筛选器以及私密 Discord / alpha 直播，作为按照他的观点行动的途径。一个反复以“I called the top in October”为主题的动态流，本身也是这些产品的营销。
他联合创办了 Moralis——一家拿到风险投资的 Web3 开发者工具公司——以及销售区块链开发课程的 Moralis Academy（原名 Ivan on Tech Academy）。Moralis 于 2023 年 1 月裁员，理由是“significant economic change and shifting customer and market priorities”。
Ivan on Tech 频道和 X 上约 494K 关注者是漏斗顶端——广告收入、赞助和产品植入都在其下游。他 2026 年的多条市场帖子是预告，真正的判断在视频里而不在帖子里。
他谈到自己有“a war chest”，也谈到在 2025 年 10 月顶部附近离场，但从不在表态旁公布投资组合、入场点或仓位大小。没有任何公开途径能核实他是否按自己所说的方向持仓。
“STFU AND BUY BUY BUY BUY”
3 Sep 2026 · the flip with the caveats gone — but still no level and no stop“We are repeating 2022 bottom quite exact ✅ 200W hit ⏳then chop ⏳then Valhalla”
15 Jun 2026 · 转多，距 $58,566 的低点两周“I don't think $60,000 was the bottom. You can pray for it of course but it won't help.”
15 Apr 2026 · 唯一可证伪的判断——而且说对了“Don't trust the pump! This week, I've been warning that the bounce is dangerous.”
11 Feb 2026 · 失手：接下来三个月 Bitcoin 上涨 19%引文取自他本人的公开来源；均为其表述的观点，而非投资建议。
这里没有精选视频库，这本身是一个发现而非疏漏。Ivan 经营着一个活跃的 YouTube 频道——本页顶部有链接——但他 2026 年的市场帖子中有很大一部分是标题和预告（“Bitcoin Price Prediction for March 2026”“If 2026 Is the New 2022, Bitcoin Is About to Do This…”），真正的判断藏在我们无法转录或引用的视频里。与其转述无法核实的内容，我们只用他以文字形式、带公开时间戳做出的表态来构建战绩。完整语料，包括每一条我们检视并剔除的帖子，都在各卡片上标注了出处。
Ivan Liljeqvist，瑞典开发者，曾在 KTH 学习计算机科学，2017 年在爱立信担任程序员期间创办了 Ivan on Tech YouTube 频道。他联合创办了 Web3 工具公司 Moralis 和课程平台 Moralis Academy（原名 Ivan on Tech Academy），如今自称 Bullmania 的 Head Trader，在那里出售一本书、一个指标和一个私密社群。他在 X 上有约 494,000 名关注者。
On our 2026 sample: five dated calls, two played out, two still open, one went against. The best was 15 June, when he turned bullish and warned of a little more downside first — both happened, in that order. The worst was 11 February, when he told followers not to buy the bounce and Bitcoin ran to $82,018 by 11 May. His newest call, 3 September, is an unconditional “buy every dip” that is still open. He is a commentator selling trading products, not a licensed adviser. Never trade his posts blindly.
未经公开核实。聚合网站发布具体数字却不注明来源，因此我们不重复任何一个。他的收入明显涵盖课程销售、一家拿到风投的软件公司、YouTube 以及 Bullmania 产品线——但没有公开财务报表，他也不披露自己的交易仓位。
周期类比优先于精确价位。他主张 2026 与 2022 押韵——200 周移动平均线作为地板，然后见底，然后震荡到四季度，然后是他称为“Valhalla”的 2027 年牛市——并在白银、AI 股票与 Bitcoin 之间轮动，而不是只待在加密里。他公开谈止损，但公开帖子很少给出目标价或失效位。
他反复这么说——“We got the top exactly in October”——这是他 2026 年营销的核心主张。在本档案所绘制的价格窗口内，我们无法核实一条 2025 年 10 月带日期的公开帖子做出过这一判断，因此这里将其记为他的说法，而非计分的表态。我们能够核实的是他从 2026 年 2 月起发布的内容，上面的战绩衡量的正是这些。
Ivan 交易的是周期而不是 K 线：历史类比、200 周均线、耐心等到 2027。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真正测一测。
