@CryptoCapo_
加密圈里最具争议的匿名图表派。il Capo 这个名字因预判 2021–22 年的崩盘而立住，随后多年成了市场最爱的反向指标。下面这份 2026 年的记录让两边都不舒服：一个几乎精准点出的支撑区，以及在那上面早了五个月。
简而言之。 il Capo of Crypto 是一位匿名分析师，2017 年入市，在 X 上面向约 80 万粉丝发帖，另有一个约 11.68 万人的免费 Telegram 频道。这里读的是大周期的支撑与阻力区、流动性的堆积以及群体情绪——并且把位置连同日期一起明说出来。正因如此，这样一个页面才可能存在。看图之前有两件事必须先讲：2026 年这是早对了、然后错了五个月，以及——原话——“As you know, I don't trade Bitcoin”。其自身持仓是隐私币和小市值币。比特币是用来发布方向的参照物，不是买入的标的。
il Capo of Crypto 是一个化名。从未公开过经核实的真名、面孔或所在地，而且由于从未说明过人称代词，本页不作猜测——媒体惯用的“他”是一种假定，不是事实。有据可查的是交易记录：Phemex 的档案写道，此人“been active in the crypto community since 2017”，并且在 2022 年 3 月比特币接近 $40,000 时，曾判断其会跌破 $23,000——当年 6 月 BTC 一度交易于 $18,000 之下。那次判断，加上 2022 年 8 月一次类似的判断，奠定了名声。
随后同样的信念朝反方向跑了。看空目标在 2022 年底部之后仍被长久坚持，NewsBTC 在 2024 年 10 月的文章说得直白：“This goes as far back as his prediction of Bitcoin falling to $12,000 last year, but the crypto eventually broke past resistance levels”，并补充说存在“a running joke among some investors that whenever Capo makes a prediction, the market tends to do the opposite”。这就是 il Capo 带进 2026 年的名声，也正因如此，一份带日期、画在图上的记录在这里比任何总结都更有价值——包括这一段。
The 2026 posture inverts the caricature: they have been publicly, stubbornly bullish since early February, through a 20% drawdown, while the crowd turned bearish. They also documented the cost of it themselves. On 9 July, with Bitcoin at $62,247, they wrote to the Telegram channel: “I've been bullish since January/February, when price reached the expected main support zone of $60k-70k… Since then, 5 months have passed by, which is a lot of time. And price went up to 82k, then back down to 58k, and now trading at around 63k.” The twelve cards below are that stretch and what followed it, charted.
Sources: x.com/CryptoCapo_ · t.me/CryptoCapoTG · Phemex profile · NewsBTC
大周期区间、流动性与情绪——信念高于择时。 il Capo 从宽幅的支撑与阻力带出发（“$65k-75k range”、“main support zone of $60k-70k”），看订单块与旧历史高点的共振、流动性堆在哪里、群体情绪有多悲观。做法是买入该区间然后等待，随后在上方点名确认位（“First bullish confirmation above 66k, second above 82k”），而不是在下方设止损。这既是长处也是缺陷：区间选对时入场近乎完美，择时错了时却没有任何机制把人带出仓位。这里也明确说自己做现货、不用杠杆——“Hence, I won't promote leverage”——并且在自己预告的回撤中依然“not selling”。
Bullish mid-term — “Mid-term bullish (next months) yes” — and heavily positioned in privacy coins, but short-term bearish since late August: as of 24 September 2026 calling the local highs in with a $65k–70k target below $80k, and on 27 September “starting to hedge”.
Twelve dated public statements from il Capo, 5 February – 24 September 2026, charted against real Bitcoin price. The CoinGecko window runs 210 days and now begins 4 March, so the two oldest cards — the 5 and 18 February posts — sit outside it and are anchored at the window's first close; their cards say so. Five are their own X posts, captured with x_capture.py so the text and date are the post's own; seven are posts from t.me/CryptoCapoTG, the channel their own description calls “Official and free Telegram channel of @CryptoCapo_ from Twitter.” Read the whole set together, not the best card: this is a run of one thesis, repeated for seven months, that was right about the level and badly wrong about the clock — followed, from late August, by a turn to short-term caution that the market has so far run over. The famous 2021–22 top call and the $12,000 target sit years outside any chartable window and are described above instead.
“There's no better time for a strong bounce (short squeeze)”
The post the whole year hangs on, and it has now aged off the left edge of its own chart. They marked the “main support zone” — a confluence of an order block, the November and April 2021 all-time highs and the 2024 ATH — and read maximum negative sentiment as the setup for an immediate squeeze. The CoinGecko window is 210 days and now begins 4 Mar 2026, so 5 February can no longer be priced from its own date; the chart anchors at the window's first close, $68,287, and the weeks right after the post sit off the edge. What does not depend on that anchor is the clock. No strong bounce came: Bitcoin ground lower for nearly five months to $58,566 on 1 July — 14.2% below even the later anchor — and only then turned. The zone did eventually hold, and BTC is $83,145 today, +21.8% above the anchor, but “there's no better time” was five months early. It stays against.
𝕏 Post“Main support zone reached… There's no better time for a strong bounce” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“Not ruling out the possibility of a quick last dump to $65k, but we should see bullish acceleration soon, with targets over $85k and altcoins outperforming.”
Two halves, and both have now paid — the second one very late. The post and the “quick last dump” that followed it in late February now sit before the CoinGecko window, which begins 4 Mar 2026, so the chart anchors at the window's first close, $68,287. The target took seven months. Bitcoin first fell to $58,566 on 1 July — 14.2% below the anchor and well under the $65k they had allowed for — before closing at $86,597 on 22 September, +26.8% above the anchor and over the $85k they named. The card sat open for months because that number was unprinted; it is printed now, so it moves to played out. What it does not earn is “soon”: the acceleration came after a second leg down. BTC is $83,145 today, +21.8% above the anchor. The altcoin half of the post is not charted here.
Source“targets over $85k and altcoins outperforming” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“For now, the most likely scenario remains an imminent short squeeze to $80k-90k levels (potentially higher).”
With BTC at $71,304, stuck in the $65k–75k range they had been publishing for weeks, they called an imminent squeeze into $80k–90k. It arrived twice. First to $82,018 on 11 May, the bottom of the band — after a 7.5% dip to $65,947 on 30 March — and then, after the whole move was given back into the $58,566 low on 1 July (−17.9% from the post), to $86,597 on 22 September, +21.4% and past the middle of the range. Honest caveat: “imminent” fits the first leg, not the second. BTC is $83,145 today, +16.6% above the post.
Source“an imminent short squeeze to $80k-90k levels” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“Just an S/R flip after bullish confirmation. Higher.”
Their most confident post of the spring, and the whole forecast is one word. BTC was $75,716; it went higher for three weeks, to $82,018 on 11 May — and then gave all of it back and more, falling 22.7% to $58,566 by 1 July. The card stayed open while price was only back around the post. That changed in September: Bitcoin closed at $86,597 on 22 September, +14.4% and above the May high, and is $83,145 now, +9.8%. “Higher” was right, so it moves from open to played out — but anyone who sized up on that one word sat through a 23% drawdown to get here.
𝕏 Post“Just an S/R flip after bullish confirmation. Higher.” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“I think we see a last leg down to 78k-79k and then bullish continuation.”
The worst call in the window. Three days before the May high, with BTC at $80,025, they sized the coming correction at roughly 1–2% — a “last leg down” to $78k–79k. Bitcoin lost 26.8% instead, to $58,566 on 1 July. The “bullish continuation” did eventually come: BTC closed at $86,597 on 22 September, +8.2% above the post, and is $83,145 today, +3.9%. That does not rescue it — the forecast was the size of the dip, and it was wrong by more than ten times. Four days earlier they had told the same channel that “Accuracy over the last months has been out of this world.”
Source“a last leg down to 78k-79k and then bullish continuation” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far.”
Less a forecast than an admission, and it belongs on the record. Four months into the thesis, with BTC back at $61,480, well under the support zone they had marked in February, they wrote the miss down publicly instead of quietly deleting it, and kept the position. It turned out to be near the end of the fall: the deepest dip after this post was −4.7% to $58,566 on 1 July, and Bitcoin is $83,145 today, +35.2% higher.
𝕏 Post“The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“an important local bottom could be forming here, with a triple tap at 60k.”
The best-timed call here. At $59,727 they read a third test of $60k as a bottom and named the levels that would prove it — “First bullish confirmation above 66k, second above 82k.” The low came five days later at $58,566, only 1.9% below them. Both confirmations have now cleared — the second on 22 September, when Bitcoin closed at $86,597 (+45.0%). BTC is $83,145 today, +39.2% above the post.
𝕏 Post“an important local bottom could be forming here, with a triple tap at 60k” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“After this strong bullish move, I can see a short-term local top forming around 80k.”
After a 34.8% run off the 1 July low, with BTC at $78,974, they turned short-term cautious and named where they would buy it back: “Eyes on 74k-75k and 69k-70k as potential local bottoms.” The first part roughly worked: Bitcoin peaked at $81,265 on 4 September and fell to $75,590 on 16 September, 4.3% below the post — close to, but not into, the 74k–75k zone. Then it ran straight through that top, to $86,597 on 22 September (+9.7%), and is $83,145 today, +5.3% above where they posted. Neither buy-back level has been tested, so it stays open, and the “local top” is now a lower high. Note what it is not: “PS: I'm not selling, just ready to buy more if that happens.”
𝕏 Post“I can see a short-term local top forming around 80k” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“Most coins remain sideways/correcting. Still expecting a final 10%-20% shakeout before bullish continuation.”
The August caution, now with a number on it. With BTC at $78,553 they sized the pullback they were waiting for — a final 10–20% shakeout, then bullish continuation — and reposted the same two lines verbatim to the channel on 7 September. It has not arrived. The deepest close since the post is $75,590 on 16 September, only 3.8% below it; then Bitcoin went the other way, to $86,597 on 22 September (+10.2%), and is $83,145 today, +5.8% above the post. It is open and pointing against them. One caveat this card cannot remove — the post says “most coins”, not Bitcoin; it is charted against BTC because that is the reference they publish direction on.
Source“Still expecting a final 10%-20% shakeout before bullish continuation” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“After riding this wave from the low $60ks, I remain cautious short-term. This looks very overextended for now, and seems like the market is going to flush some leverage and reset indicators before continuing higher.”
The first time in this window they claim the move: “riding this wave from the low $60ks” is the 26 June call above, which landed within 1.9% of the $58,566 low. From $78,451 they stayed short-term cautious and asked for a leverage flush before continuation. What followed fits the words loosely: a 3.6% dip to $75,590 on 16 September, then $86,597 on 22 September (+10.4%); BTC is $83,145 today, +6.0% above the post. A 3.6% flush is small for a market they called “very overextended”, and the post names no level either way, so it stays open rather than claimed. Same caveat as the card above — the subject is “the market”, charted against BTC.
Source“I remain cautious short-term… this looks very overextended for now” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“Expected retracements from here: • $BTC: 10% - 15% ($65k - $70k) • $ETH: 15% - 20% ($2k - $2.1k)”
The shakeout, sized asset by asset. Two days after the card above, with BTC at $76,555, they published a table of expected retracements — Bitcoin 10–15% to $65k–70k, Ether 15–20% to $2k–2.1k, altcoins and memecoins deeper — and reposted it word for word on 18 September. Five days after the post Bitcoin had dipped 1.3% to $75,590, the closest it has come. Then it rallied the other way, to $86,597 on 22 September (+13.1%), and is $83,145 today, +8.6% above the post — a 15.8% fall away from even the top of their target zone. Ether did the same: $2,438 to a $2,775 high (+13.9%), $2,666 today (+9.4%). No clock was attached, so it stays open — but it is going against them.
Source“Expected retracements from here… $BTC: 10% - 15% ($65k - $70k)” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“High probability local highs are in. We could now see an LTF bounce towards $85k, but then down again. Bull trap confirmation (trend change) once $BTC goes below $80k. The expected target would be $65k-70k.”
Their newest call, and the most complete bearish one on this page: a top, a bounce level, a trigger and a target. Two days after the $86,597 close on 22 September, with BTC at $84,382, they called the local highs in, allowed a bounce toward $85k, and set below $80k as the confirmation for a drop to $65k–70k. On 27 September they added: “As mentioned on X, I'm starting to hedge.” Five days settles nothing. The highest close since is $84,449 (+0.1%), and Bitcoin is $83,145 today, 1.5% below the post — still above the $80k trigger. Note the shift: this is the first card here where they say they are acting on a bearish view rather than waiting to buy lower.
Source“High probability local highs are in” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.meOutcomes are our read of their stated direction against real CoinGecko price, not their own scoring. Two things bound what these cards can prove. First, il Capo has said they do not trade Bitcoin — “it's one of the main references for market direction” — so a red card marks a published view that aged badly, not a losing position; their actual holdings are privacy coins and low caps we have no price series for. Second, they publish confirmation levels rather than stops, so there is no exit to score against. The newest card is five days old and settles nothing. One more limit: the “$1,000 in” line on each card is buy-and-hold from the post date, including on the cautious and bearish cards from 25 August onward — for those, a positive figure means the call is going against them.
这里没有付费群——Telegram 频道免费，并声明是唯一运营的一个。钱在一笔交易所联盟协议、一个工具推荐链接，以及最重要的——一批向六位数受众公开点名的低流动性币的持仓里。
一项 2026 年 7 月 16 日宣布、8 月仍在推广的联盟协议：$10,000 USDT 抽奖、10% 交易手续费折扣，以及通过 partner.bybit.com/b/cryptocapo 最高 $30,000 USDT 的奖励。其自我约束的条件是公开讲明的——“my views remain entirely my own, focusing on spot markets, education and a sustainable approach to trading”和“Hence, I won't promote leverage”——这比多数交易所合作划的线更严。但它仍然是从注册去交易的人身上分成。
所使用的分析平台的推荐链接（kiyotaka.ai/ref=CryptoCapo），2026 年 5 月发布在频道上。也提示过 Telegram 自己的广告现在会出现在信息流中：“Ads might pop up here due to Telegram's new policy. I don't control them and they're not related to the content.”
这比联盟链接重要得多。这里会向约 11.68 万 Telegram 读者和 X 上约 80 万人发布自己持有的低流动性隐私币与小市值币的买入区间——$XMR、$ZEC、$ZANO、$ARRR、$XLM、$BCH、$TAO——配上“$XMR looks ready to take off.”这样的句子。而上面画在图上的比特币，恰恰是这里自称不交易的那一个。请据此掂量来自这种体量账号的小市值判断。
频道简介警告：“This is the only TG that I have. Beware of scammers. I will never DM you first.”确实存在盗用这个名字的仿冒 Telegram 频道和 YouTube 账号；本档案只链接账号本人声明的那两个。
“As you know, I don't trade Bitcoin, but it's one of the main references for market direction.”
04 Mar 2026 · 为上面整张图定调的那句披露“The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far.”
11 Jun 2026 · 五个月后，公开认下“Trade the charts, not the news.”
07 Apr 2026 · 对读者的长期叮嘱“As always, my views remain entirely my own, focusing on spot markets, education and a sustainable approach to trading.”
16 Jul 2026 · 宣布 Bybit 合作时Quotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
没有视频库可以链接。il Capo 不做播客，也没有经过验证的 YouTube 频道——那些借这个名字牟利的频道均未获证实，而账号本人也警告过冒名者。全部产出就是 X 上的短帖和那个免费 Telegram 频道，这正是为什么上面每条判断都是一段带时间戳、截图长度的引文，而不是一个视频片段。两个账号都链接在本页顶部；图表背后完整的已核验语料在每张卡上都有出处。
一位匿名加密分析师兼交易者，在 X 上以 @CryptoCapo_ 面向约 80 万粉丝发帖，并有一个约 11.68 万人的免费 Telegram 频道。没有公开过经核实的姓名、面孔或国家，也从未说明过人称代词。2017 年入市；因预判 2021–22 年比特币崩盘而广为人知。
Both, at different times. They called Bitcoin below $23,000 in March 2022 from around $40,000 and it traded under $18,000 that June. They then held a $12,000 target that never arrived — NewsBTC reported in October 2024 that it had become “a running joke among some investors that whenever Capo makes a prediction, the market tends to do the opposite.” Across the twelve dated calls charted here (5 February – 24 September 2026), five played out, five are still open and two went against — including a 26.8% drawdown after they forecast a 1–2% dip.
没有发现付费群，Telegram 频道免费且被声明为唯一运营的频道。收入来自 2026 年 7 月宣布的 Bybit 联盟合作和一个工具推荐链接；此外还持有并公开点名低流动性隐私币和小市值币——这才是比联盟链接更值得掂量的利益冲突。
在流动性堆在上方、情绪最悲观时，买入由共振确定的大周期支撑区——订单块、此前的历史高点、区间下沿——然后拿着现货扛过回撤，并在上方点名确认位而不是在下方设止损。这里声明只做现货、不推广杠杆，且自己的持仓是隐私币而非比特币。
il Capo 买区间、无视新闻、然后等待——有时等几个月，有时等得太久。你的直觉有多接近？用 Trader Passport 真刀真枪地量一量。
