@GertvanLagen
一位转做图表分析的荷兰工程师，只押注一个非常宏大的想法：比特币正处在一轮始于 2009 年的超级周期的最后一浪之中，而这一浪会在 $400,000–$450,000 附近结束。他发布的一切都是这个论点，每周重写一次，并把自己盯着的那个位置白纸黑字写下来——正因如此，它才可以被评分。
简而言之。 Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen, roughly 125,000 followers, on X since December 2009) is one of crypto's most persistent Elliott Wave analysts. His X bio gives the whole framing: “MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Macro Strategist | NFA | Strate𝔾”. Since April 2026 he has published a weekly letter, the Strate𝔾 Update, that walks the same route every time — macro pulse, then Bitcoin, then altcoins, stocks, forex — and lands on a wave count pointing at a blow-off top around $400k–$450k. The record below is the honest shape of that: his most bullish week, 5 May, landed six days before Bitcoin's May peak and was followed by a 26.6% collapse; from 17 June through 15 August he repeatedly refused to call it a bear market, and on the day he said the cycle-bottom trendline was being tested Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further before rallying more than a third; and the $82.8k line he made the whole question in September finally broke on 22 September. The supercycle target itself is still roughly 5x away.
van Lagen 是荷兰人，在他真正署名的唯一一份简介里，他把自己描述为担任宏观策略师的 MSc in Systems and Control——这是他自 2009 年 12 月 4 日起持有的 X 账号简介。他没有基金、没有公司，也没有经审计的战绩可供展示；他有的是十年公开的艾略特波浪图表，以及自 2026 年 4 月 22 日起、把这些图表钉在日期上的周刊 Strate𝔾。
以加密 X 的标准看，他的方法异常好读。每期 Strate𝔾 Update 都以同一句免责声明开头——“The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don't take it as financial advice.”——然后自上而下推进：美联储政策、原油与通胀、作为风险偏好量表的 Russell 2000，之后才轮到比特币。在那里，他把波浪计数映射到两条长期趋势线上：下方连接 2018 年熊市低点、2020 年新冠低点和 2022 年低点；上方是接近 $450K 的长期趋势线。同一批位置会反复出现好几个月——$66k，然后 $82.8k——因为他描述的那个结构移动得很慢。
多年期波浪计数在诚实性上的问题是：它几乎从不在某个约定时间点上被证伪，所以他被引用最多的那次落空理应入档。2024 年 3 月 9 日他发帖称：“By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days. A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.” 第二天 U.Today 把它做成了标题：“Bitcoin (BTC) at $200,000 Is More Feasible Than You Think.” 比特币从未在 $200,000 成交过——按他自己的通讯，本轮周期顶在 $126k。让他每周的位置可被核查的那套目标纪律，同样会生产出从未兑现的标题数字。
Sources: x.com/GertvanLagen (posts captured verbatim via the X syndication endpoint) · gertvanlagen.substack.com (publicly-served text of dated Strate𝔾 Update editions) · U.Today coverage used only to date and locate the 2024 post
建立在宏观脉搏之上的艾略特波浪结构。van Lagen 数浪——推动浪、扩张平台、扩张倾斜三角——并把它们挂在跨越多年的趋势线上，而不是挂在指标上。在他的框架里，比特币的地板是连接 2018 年低点、2020 年新冠低点和 2022 年熊市低点的那条蓝线，并由 210,000 个区块（减半）的 EMA/SMA 加以强化；天花板则是他目前定价在 $450K 附近的长期趋势线。围绕着它的是一份可重复的宏观清单——美联储路径、作为经济投入成本的原油、ISM 与非农，以及他认为在资金轮动中领先比特币的风险偏好指标 Russell 2000。他的强项在于点名那个决定胜负的位置（$74k、$66k、$82.8k），并一直重复直到它被击穿。弱项则是时间尺度的错配：一个在 $400k 才兑现的计数，对途中 26% 的回撤毫无指导，而他恰恰在这份战绩所包含的那次回撤中，始终保持结构性看多。
结构性地、顽固地看多。在整个窗口里他一次也没有转向熊市判断——最多把抛售称作盘整中的一次洗盘——所以请把他每周的位置读作一个长期做多论点内部的择时，而不是双向的观点。
Nine dated calls, all of them his own: two posts from @GertvanLagen captured verbatim from X, seven from dated editions of his Strate𝔾 Update. The oldest, 4 March, has since rolled out of the CoinGecko price window and is charted from the window's first day. An honest caveat on selection — the weekly letter is a paid newsletter, and what is charted here is the portion Substack serves publicly (the subtitle and the opening of each section, which is where he states the week's thesis and the level he is watching). The paywalled remainder is not quoted, and it may contain qualifications this page cannot see. The shape that emerges: he was wrong at the top — his most bullish letter, 5 May, came six days before Bitcoin's May peak — and right through the bottom, refusing a bear-market call from 17 June onward and naming the cycle-bottom trendline on 15 August, within 0.2% of the low that followed. The through-line, a wave-5 blow-off at $400k–$450k, is roughly 5x away and is logged open, not correct.
“This week, the $82.8k lower high was finally broken with a strong move higher, shifting the structure from a downtrend to a broken downtrend. This creates a potential double-bottom setup, with the red horizontal line as the neckline and a lower-timeframe target around $120k.”
The week his $82,800 line finally broke, he turned it into a pattern: a double bottom with a lower-timeframe target around $120,000, with BTC at $84,076. So far it is holding but not going: the dip since was only $83,479 (−0.7%) on 29 September — still above the $82.8k he says now has to hold as support — and the best close is $86,490 (+2.9%) on 5 October. At $84,009 (−0.1%) the target is another +42.8% away, so this is logged open.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 39 | Q3 | 2026, “BTC clears $82.8k breaking the 1-year downtrend (!)”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“Ethereum set to print higher high on weekly chart.”
The headline thesis of that week's letter, stated in its subtitle with ETH at $2,515. It printed: after a −4.7% dip to $2,397 on the 16th, Ethereum ran to $2,775 (+10.4%) on 22 September — the highest price in the whole window — and sits at $2,608 (+3.7%). A small, precise call that did what he said within ten days.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 37 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 12 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“the $82,8k level really needs to be cleared first, for BTC to print a Higher High - Breaking the cascade of lower lows and lower highs since the $126k top”
With BTC at $79,671 he refused to call the rally a trend change until $82,800 broke — “The $82.8k lower high was not yet defeated.” It dipped first, −5.1% to $75,590 on 16 September, then cleared the line on 22 September at $86,597 (+8.7%), the highest close of the window and the first higher high since the $126k top. It sits at $84,009 (+5.4%), still above 所提到的位置. He named the trigger, it broke, and price did what he said it would after — now logged played out (it was open on this page until then).
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 36 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 5 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
His best call of the window. With BTC at $62,984 he said it was “currently testing the lower blue trendline connecting the major 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low, and the 2022 bear-market low” and read it as cycle-bottom confluence. Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further — to $62,844 on 17 August — then ran to $86,597 (+37.5%) by 22 September and trades at $84,009 (+33.4%). The $450K end of that same count remains untouched.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 33 | Q3 | 2026, “Risk-on strengthens as Bitcoin hits historical bottom trend”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.”
Called the summer chop a mid-cycle correction due to reverse, with BTC at $63,917. It reversed almost immediately: the deepest dip after was $62,773 (−1.8%) on 2 August, then $86,597 (+35.5%) on 22 September, now $84,009 (+31.4%). The blow-off he framed it against is a $400k target — that part has not happened.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 31 | Q3 | 2026, “Summer Sideways - Extremely boring”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
The first edition in this window to state it in capitals, with BTC at $65,619 stalling under the $66k resistance he had named. He was right about the regime and early on the price: Bitcoin fell another 10.7% to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — before running to $86,597 (+32.0%) on 22 September and settling at $84,009 (+28.0%). He repeated this line almost verbatim for five straight weeks; this is where it starts.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 25 | Q2 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 17 Jun 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“$ETH is printing a highly complex Expanding Diagonal, consisting of 5 corrective waves in a triangular structure. Wave c of 5 of ⑤ is the final blow-off style impulse, targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k”
Direction right, magnitude nowhere near. From $1,812 Ethereum first fell 13.6% to $1,566 on 26 June, then rallied to $2,775 (+53.2%) on 22 September and sits at $2,608 (+44.0%) — a good call by any normal standard. But the box he named starts at $10,000, which is another +283% from here, and ends at $22,000, +744% away. Logged open: the thesis has not been invalidated and has not paid.
𝕏 Post“Wave c of 5 of ⑤ … targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+. In this section, I will show that both the low- and high-timeframe structures point to this target.”
His most bullish letter of the window, and the worst-timed. BTC was $79,826 and he had just noted it “has now cleared the long-standing $74k resistance!”. Six days later it peaked at $82,018 on 11 May, then fell 26.6% to $58,566 by 1 July. Bitcoin did eventually get past that May high — $86,597 (+8.5%) on 22 September — and is $84,009 (+5.2%) today, but the call pointed up and the next move was a quarter off, and $400k is still +376% away.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 19 | Q2 | 2026, “Bulls need to push through this time!”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.”
Posted on 4 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. The near-term half worked: Bitcoin ran to $82,018 by 11 May, gave it back to $58,566 (−16.4%) on 1 July, then made the high of the window, $86,597 (+23.7%), on 22 September, and is $84,009 (+20.0%) now. The stated destination is not close: $400k is +376% from today's price. Up 20% is not a wrong call — but it is not the call he made, so it stays open.
𝕏 Post“my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel … at ~$400k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Mar 2026↗ x.com结论是我们把他公开表述的立场对照 CoinGecko 真实日收盘价后的解读，不是他本人的打分。文中价格取自与图表相同的数据序列。价格连靠近都没靠近过的长期目标，记为未决而非算作命中；短期判定可能随周期演进而翻转。当同一句话在多期周报中重复出现时，卡片采用它在本窗口首次出现的那一期。
他的生意是一份明码标价的付费通讯，外加六位数关注量所带来的会议经济。我们没有找到喊单群、代币或交易所返佣——但值得知道的激励恰恰是这封信的价格，因为免费的那一半必须听起来很紧迫。
Strate𝔾 Update 是一份付费周报。他公开订阅页面提供的套餐对象写着 “$26.50 a month” 和 “$265 a year”（美元，创建于 2025 年 7 月）。截至 2026 年 9 月 20 日，他存档中的 23 篇里有 21 篇仅限付费——包括每一封行情信。公开的是副标题和每个章节的开头，而这正是本页用来上图的内容。
2026 年 5 月 26 日他发布了两篇免费文章：一篇关于 Dutch Blockchain Week，副标题为 “Want a ticket? Use my discount code: GertvanLagen15”；另一篇关于卢浮宫的 Proof of Talk——“I have 10 nomination spots, and I am giving you the opportunity to be part of it!” 两篇都没有说明该折扣码或提名名额是否带有费用或佣金。
他已经发布同一套 $400k–$450k 波浪计数很多年，而这封信的受众买的正是这套计数还活着。这不是隐藏的利益冲突——每一期都写着——但它解释了他的姿态：在这份战绩的七个月里，他一次也没有宣告熊市，包括 26% 回撤之前的那一周。
“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
15 Aug 2026 · 低点前两天，而且说对了“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+.”
05 May 2026 · six days before the May peak“I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
17 Jun 2026 · 他连续五周重复的那句话“A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.”
09 Mar 2024 · 至今仍被人拿来反问他的那次落空引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
There is no video library to link — van Lagen has no channel of his own. His public output is charts on X and the weekly Strate𝔾 Update on Substack, which is why every call above is a timestamped post or a dated letter rather than a clip. The editions behind seven of the nine cards are public at the links on those cards; the full corpus, with the live verification log, is cited in the sources line.
一位荷兰宏观策略师与艾略特波浪分析师，以 @GertvanLagen 的身份在 X 上向约 125,000 名关注者发布比特币图表分析，并自 2026 年 4 月起发行付费周报 Strate𝔾 Update。他本人的简介称其拥有 MSc in Systems and Control；他没有披露任何基金、公司或经审计的战绩。
他长期持有的艾略特波浪计数，把始于 2009 年的超级周期最后第五浪的冲顶放在其通道的上轨——他曾把这个位置定价在约 $400,000，并在 2026 年 8 月的通讯中写作“currently around $450K”。这个目标连靠近都没有：它大约是今日价格的 5 倍，本档案将其记为未决，而非正确。
公开不可知，也无法核实。他没有披露基金、公司或仓位规模；唯一可见的生意是每月 $26.50 的付费 Substack。请忽略任何挂在他名下的具体数字——没有一个得到确认。
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the record cuts both ways: of nine dated calls we charted, five played out, three are open and one went clearly against him — he was at his most bullish six days before Bitcoin's May peak, and he called the cycle-bottom trendline two days before a local low that undercut him by only 0.2%, ahead of a rally of more than a third. His best-known long-term call, $200k before the April 2024 halving, never happened. Treat his letters as a dated, checkable opinion — never trade them blindly.
van Lagen 会一直缩小视图，直到噪音消失：一套波浪计数、一条趋势线、一个数年之后的终点。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
