@crypto_birb
一位在 X 上拥有约 712K 粉丝的波兰技术分析师，依据四年周期、200 日趋势和日历规律交易 Bitcoin。2025年7月，他表示将在 2026 年熊市到来前退出加密市场；2026年8月，他写道“熊市已经结束”。本页核查他此后给出的点位。
简而言之。 Crypto Birb is Adrian Zduńczyk, a chartered market technician (CMT) from Poland and the founder of The Birb Nest. His posts on X (about 712K followers) mix Bitcoin chart levels with cycle and seasonality statistics. On this page: seven dated Bitcoin calls from 24 August to 12 October 2026. One played out — “the bear market is over” — and six are still open, including his 30 September call that Bitcoin can reach $100k–$122k before 2026 ends. None has gone against him yet, but all seven are recent, so the sample is short.
据 mpost.io 的简介，“Crypto Birb”这一账号名和品牌由 Adrian Zduńczyk 创立，简介称他为市场分析师、The Birb Nest 创始人兼 CEO。X 账号（@crypto_birb，显示名“₿IRB”）开设于 2017年8月，发帖超过 123,000 条。
2025年7月9日，他公开解释自己正在撤出加密市场：“周期顶部总是出现在美国大选后的年份”，“2026 年是中期选举年”，以及“我的看法：顶部在七月，或十月底/十一月初。”他表示将“考虑在 2026 年 Q4 或 2027 年初重新进入加密市场”。该帖超出本页价格时间窗口，因此未绘制，但大致轮廓得到了验证：Bitcoin 于 2025年10月见顶，在我们的数据中于 2026年7月1日在 $58,566 触底。
他的方法是经典技术分析——形态目标、支撑与阻力、200 日趋势和黄金交叉——并结合季节性统计表（“中期选举年的九月从未收阳。直到今天。”）。许多帖子以向粉丝提问和一句明确的“我完全不知道”结尾，因此本页的几条判断是情景推演，而非单一目标。
Sources: x.com/crypto_birb (profile and posts, via api.fxtwitter.com); youtube.com/@TheBirbNest; mpost.io profile
周期与季节性技术分析师。他标出支撑与阻力，测量形态目标（“取形态底部的幅度，加到阻力位上”），并借助减半周期和日历统计把握大局。本样本中他的强项是支撑区：价格测试后反弹。对计分而言的弱点是，许多帖子同时给出两种结果，因此无法明确判定对错。
Bullish. On 28 Sep he posted “Dear bears, your days are counted.” On 30 Sep he wrote that the “Bear bottom came in a few weeks early this year” and that the best quarter on record for Bitcoin “is about to start”. On 9 Oct, with BTC down from $87K to $81K, he wrote: “The bull market isn't up for debate.”
Seven dated Bitcoin calls from his own posts on X, charted against real CoinGecko price. Each quote is copied from the post as published and was re-fetched live. All seven are from late August to mid-October 2026: his earlier 2026 posts are not reachable through our tools, and we found no dated press coverage of his calls inside the window, so this is a short, recent sample.
“Rising 200-day trends support @ $72k-$75k. 4. Key 1D support held @ $82k Conclusion: Big bull catching a breath after first sprint.”
BTC was $83,691. He read the pullback as a pause in a bull market, with $82k as the daily support that had held and the rising 200-day averages at $72k–$75k below it. Since then BTC has closed under $82k four times, but by less than 1%: the lowest close was $81,408 (−2.7%). It is $81,764 now (−2.3%). The $72k–$75k zone has not been tested. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Big bull catching a breath after first sprint.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A typical October would take us to $98,700. That's right. It's fair to expect near $100k prices soon. Will we get there in 30 days? No clue, but Q4 is crazy. Average Q4 gains +19.17% in midterms and +45.26% overall. We can see $100k-$122k before 2026 ends.”
BTC was $83,640, so a typical October meant about +18.0%. He said he had “no clue” whether it would take 30 days. October has gone the other way so far: the highest close was $86,490 (+3.4%) on 5 Oct, the lowest $81,408 (−2.7%). It is $81,764 now (−2.2%), and would need +22.3% to reach $100k. The $100k–$122k range has until 31 December. Still open.
𝕏 Post“A typical October would take us to $98,700.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“1. Upward breakout aiming at $88k. Or 2. Downward breakout targetting $70k.”
BTC was $78,173. He gave both outcomes and said “No idea” which one. It dipped to $75,590 (−3.3%) the next day, then broke upward to $86,597 (+10.8%) on 22 Sep — 1.6% short of $88k. $70k was never reached. It is $81,764 now (+4.6%). Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin's range can resolve in one of two ways.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin support area is 75.7k-77.9k. If short-term bulls lose this area (daily close below), $70,000 becomes the key magnet.”
BTC was $79,093. It fell into his zone and closed at $75,590 (−4.4%) on 16 Sep — $110 under the bottom of it — then was back inside at $76,147 the next day. The $70,000 magnet never pulled: BTC ran to $86,597 (+9.5%) on 22 Sep and is $81,764 now (+3.4%). The zone worked as support, but by our closes his own trigger tripped once. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin support area is 75.7k-77.9k.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“$70,000 is main support moving forward. $100,000 is main resistance.”
BTC was $77,297. Since then it has stayed inside his range: the lowest close was $75,590 (−2.2%) and the highest $86,597 (+12.0%). It is $81,764 now (+5.8%). Neither level has been tested. Still open.
𝕏 Post“$70,000 is main support moving forward.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A realistic expectation is 2.5x from market bottom. Baseline can aim at $144,500. An aggressive target would be $231,200 (4x)”
A target for the April 2028 halving, not for this year. BTC was $78,225; it is $81,764 now (+4.5%) and would need to rise another 77% to reach $144,500. He said he expects it to land between the two figures, “closer to the first one”. Still open until 2028.
𝕏 Post“Baseline can aim at $144,500.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A trend and not a correction. From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.”
BTC was $77,712, up 23% in nine days from $62,984 on 15 Aug. He called it a trend, not a relief bounce. It never gave the move back: the lowest close since was $75,590 (−2.7%), and BTC rose to $86,597 (+11.4%) on 22 Sep. It is $81,764 now (+5.2%). Played out so far — an eight-week read on a cycle call.
𝕏 Post“From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com结果是我们对每条帖子内容的解读，以 CoinGecko 真实日收盘价衡量——并非他本人的评分。点位以日收盘价核对，因此盘中价格可能超出所列数字。“待验证”表示该判断给出的点位或时间范围尚未达到或跌破。
His X bio reads “Millionaire Speedrun” and links a futures trading competition on the Bitbase exchange with the referral code SPEEDRUN. On 22 Sep he wrote that his group gets “a cut of their fees”. He also posts promotions for OKX products (OKX Shield on 26 Sep, OKX VIP tiers on 15 Oct). Those are incentives worth knowing about when his posts turn bullish.
A trading program he promotes on X and on The Birb Nest YouTube channel (“Millionaire Speedrun - A Structured Path to Profitable Trading”). The bio link is a Bitbase futures competition with a referral code. On 22 Sep he wrote that entry is free with “our special @Bitbase_Ex code (we get a cut of their fees)”.
他用于分析、教育和咨询的品牌，拥有 YouTube 频道和网站。较早的上传内容包括交易所和项目的赞助推广。
In July 2025 he wrote that he was rotating out of crypto into “cash, real estate, gold, hedge funds, luxury” and planned to re-enter in Q4 2026 or early 2027. On 5 Oct 2026 he wrote that he had “moved on to buy bitcoin bags for long term. Not touching it till Q2 2029.” He gave no size.
“From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.”
24 Aug 2026 · BTC 上涨 11.4% 且未回吐涨幅“My opinion: top in July or late October/early November.”
9 Jul 2025 · Bitcoin 于 2025年10月见顶“Bear bottom came in a few weeks early this year”
30 Sep 2026 · 他对 2026 年熊市的判断引语摘录自他本人的公开来源；仅为其表达的观点，并非投资建议。
这里没有可链接的近期市场视频。The Birb Nest YouTube 频道在此期间的上传内容都在推广 Millionaire Speedrun 项目，而每条已绘制的判断都链接到他在 X 上的帖子。
Adrian Zduńczyk，波兰特许市场技术分析师（CMT）、The Birb Nest 创始人，自 2017年8月起以 @crypto_birb 在 X 上发帖，拥有约 712K 粉丝。
On 30 Sep 2026 he wrote that the bear bottom was in, that “a typical October would take us to $98,700”, and that “we can see $100k-$122k before 2026 ends”. On 3 Sep he named $70,000 as main support and $100,000 as main resistance. For the April 2028 halving he gave a baseline of $144,500 and an aggressive target of $231,200.
Of seven dated Bitcoin calls from 24 Aug to 12 Oct 2026, one played out (the bear market is over) and six are still open. None has gone against him yet, but the sample is short and recent. Outside the chart window, his July 2025 call for a 2025 top followed by a 2026 bear market matched what happened. Treat it as a documented opinion, not advice.
Through The Birb Nest brand and the Millionaire Speedrun trading program. His X bio links a Bitbase futures trading competition with the referral code SPEEDRUN, and he has written that his group gets “a cut of their fees”. He also posts OKX promotions.
Crypto Birb 借助支撑区和日历统计交易四年周期。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 实际测一测。
