@caprioleio
Hash Ribbons、Bitcoin Energy Value 和 Production Cost 的创造者——这些指标如今被其他分析师反过来引用给他本人。Edwards 管理一只系统化的比特币基金，并把该基金据以交易的模型连同日期一起公开。这让他异常容易被核查：当他的估值工作说「深度价值」时，你可以去查价格后来究竟怎么走。
简而言之。 Charles Edwards 于 2019 年创立 Capriole Investments，管理着持牌并经审计的系统化基金 Capriole Fund。他出名不是因为价格目标，而是因为构建了如今被行业广泛使用的链上估值指标——Hash Ribbons、Bitcoin Energy Value、Production Cost、Bitcoin Yardstick。他的公开产出是一份免费的 Substack 和 X 上密集的图表流。下面这份成绩单以一种很说明问题的方式呈现出分化：他的慢速估值判断——「这是价值区间，等生产成本」——在 2026 年的回撤中表现良好；而他的快速资金流与动量信号——机构吸筹、稳定币轮动、财库公司的拐点——却一再在局部高点前几天触发。同一个机构资金流指标让他在 5 月 5 日看多、5 月 26 日看空；奏效的是看空的那一半。
Edwards 是 Capriole Investments 的创始人兼首席执行官。按其官网说法，公司「成立于 2019 年」，「管理 Capriole Fund，一只持牌并经审计的主基金，服务超过 25 个国家的投资者」，采取「以跨市场周期获取绝对回报为目标的系统化投资方法」。其架构包括一家美国有限合伙企业和两家开曼群岛实体，运营设在澳大利亚。他并不向散户兜售信号：生意本身是基金，公开写作是它的橱窗。
他持久的贡献在于度量，而非预测。Hash Ribbons（矿工投降）、Bitcoin Energy Value 与 Production Cost（基于挖矿成本的公允价值区间）、Bitcoin Yardstick 和 Dynamic Range NVT 都出自他手；他在信件中点名的内部模型同样如此——Trend King、Macro Index、Bitcoin Perps Heat 和 Market Hedge Ratio。由于他把读数连同日期一起公开，他的判断可以被证伪，而多数评论做不到这一点——这一点是双刃的。
为求诚实，这里记下一个落在本图表窗口之外的确凿失误：2025 年 10 月 2 日，Cointelegraph 报道他称比特币「可能在 2025 年结束前飙升至 $150,000 的历史新高」。这并未发生——BTC 在接近 $126,000 处见顶。他 2019–2021 年的 Hash Ribbons 与 Energy Value 判断同样落在 210 天价格窗口之外，因此未在此绘制。另有一个被广泛转载、据称出自 2024 年某帖的「$280,000」数字，无法追溯到原始出处，因此本页任何地方都不作此断言。
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
系统化且以估值为主导。Edwards 从生产成本和链上价值区间出发，而不是图表形态：相对于矿工造出一枚币的成本，价格处在什么位置；Yardstick 在说什么；机构需求高于还是低于每日新增供给。在长周期上这确实很好——正是它让他在整个春天保持等待，并在 6 月低点宣布价值。弱点出现在短周期：他基于资金流的信号（机构吸筹、稳定币轮动、财库公司买入）都建立在小样本上，用「通常」和「历史上」来表述，而在本窗口内有三个看多信号在局部高点前几天触发——尽管同一指标在 5 月 26 日转向看空是个好判断，而这恰恰是同步指标而非领先指标的特征。他还会点明自己的失效位，这是真正的纪律——他说「$71.5K 之上」，并且是认真的。
Turned constructive in late September. On 16 September he wanted a weekly close back above $78K, and Bitcoin.com News reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view. Once that line was reclaimed his own posts flipped: on 24 September the Bitcoin Yardstick “says: bear market is over” — with a warning of 6-8 weeks of chop first — and on 1 October he called the end of the biggest miner capitulation since 2021 “a macro trend change”. Valuation bull, now leaning bullish near-term as well, chop caveat attached.
Ten dated calls from his own Substack and X feed, plus verbatim quotes in dated press — every one re-fetched live and matched word-for-word against its source before publishing. The split is the story, and it is about horizon, not direction. His valuation work (13 Mar, 9 Jun) was right, the conditional long he defined on 15 April paid and then stopped out exactly where he said it would, on 26 May he reversed on new data and was right again, and the $78K line he drew on 16 September was reclaimed within days. His fast flow signals (1 May, 5 May, 4 Sep) each fired within days of a local high — one on the day itself. His two newest calls, the Yardstick's “bear market is over” (24 Sep) and the end of miner capitulation on his Hash Ribbons (1 Oct), are still open. Five further in-window items were examined and excluded, with the reason for each, in the draft's verified_sources.txt.
“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining and killed 50% of the network overnight in 2021. Hash Rate is seeing its first signs of growth since 2025. This is a macro trend change and how Hash Ribbons should be interpreted in the new era of efficiency.”
His own indicator, read by its author: the miner capitulation Hash Ribbons was built to track is over, and he called it “a macro trend change”. He signed off with “If you know, you know what this means” rather than a level — the end of a capitulation is what his Hash Ribbons buy signal marks, but he gave no target and no timeframe. Posted at 05:37 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $83,576. BTC has since reached $84,842 (+1.5%) and is $84,793 (+1.5%). Three days old — open.
𝕏 Post“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time.”
His own valuation metric — market cap over hash rate — leaving its deep-discount zone, and the most bullish thing he has said in this window. He pointed to 2020 and 2023, when price more than doubled from here, but set no target, and in the same post warned that “both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up.” So far the caveat is the accurate half: from $84,382 BTC has held a $83,479–$84,842 range (−1.1% to +0.5%) and is $84,793 (+0.5%) ten days on. It is also an about-face from his 16 September warning, made once his $78K line had been reclaimed. Open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
Posted with BTC at $75,590, hours after the US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act. He named one level — a weekly close above $78,000 — and said the alternative gets ugly. The market took the good branch: BTC was back above $78K by 19 September, has held above it at every daily point since, and the day of his post is still the low. It ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and is $84,793 (+12.2%). This was a warning, not a rally forecast, so the credit is for naming the right pivot. Bitcoin.com News had reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view; his own posts since have turned bullish — see the two cards above.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
His Market Hedge Ratio (USDT/BTC market cap, rolling 30 days) hit −20.42% and he said downside was “basically capped” with weeks of upside to run. The next two weeks said otherwise: from $81,265 on 4 September BTC fell −7.0% to $75,590 by the 16th. The upside did come, but late — BTC first traded above his entry on 22 September, 18 days on, at $86,597 (+6.6%), and sits at $84,793 (+4.3%). Graded against on what he claimed for the weeks that followed: a 7% drawdown first is not capped downside.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
His own cost-of-mining model, used as intended: at $63,069 he marked the $50K–$63K band as the historical long-term value zone. It worked. BTC dipped only −7.1% to $58,566 on 1 July — inside the band he named — then ran +37.3% to $86,597 by 22 September and holds $84,793 (+34.4%). The best call on this page.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Twenty-one days after the $96K note, the same institutional-flow metric flipped negative and so did he. That call worked: from $77,258 BTC fell −24.2% to $58,566 by 1 July and was never more than +5.2% above his post until 22 September — four months on — when it reached $86,597 (+12.1%); it sits at $84,793 (+9.8%). Credit for reversing fast on new data — but read it against the card below, because it is one indicator contradicting itself inside three weeks, which is the honest case for treating it as coincident rather than predictive.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
His most specific call in the window, and his worst — with the number in his own newsletter, not a reporter's arithmetic. Posted six days before the May high. From $79,826 BTC gained just +2.7% to $82,018 on 11 May against the “double digit returns” the analogue promised, then fell −26.6% to $58,566; it sits at $84,793 (+6.2%) five months later. $96,000 was never reached — even the 22 September high of $86,597 is 9.8% short of it. The same issue reported Capriole's Trend King as “leverage long Bitcoin”, so this was his positioning, not just his commentary.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Treasury-company buying bounced off extreme lows and he flagged the inflection as historically bullish — while openly noting the thin sample. The caveat earned its keep: from $76,297 BTC added just +7.5% to $82,018 over ten days, then gave it all back and more, −23.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. It is $84,793 (+11.1%) five months on, but only by way of that drawdown — not the bullish inflection the post pointed to.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
A conditional call with the invalidation stated up front — bullish above $71.5K, and in the same letter: “if the current move breaks down next week… our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly.” It paid, then stopped out exactly as written. From $74,297 BTC rose +10.4% to $82,018 by 11 May; his $71,500 line broke on 2 June at $71,320, and the flush ran to $58,566 (−21.2%). Now $84,793 (+14.1%). Graded on the trade he defined, not the hold.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
The useful half of this call was the refusal: value, yes — but not the deep value that gets him excited, which he placed at the production-cost band of roughly $50,000–$60,000. Investors who waited were right. The outcome is as two-sided as the call: from $70,417 BTC first rose +16.5% to $82,018, then fell −16.8% to $58,566 on 1 July — almost symmetric — clipping the top of the band he named before recovering to $86,597 (+23.0%) on 22 September; it is $84,793 (+20.4%) now. He was right that the bottom was closer than the top, and right not to call it. He also said he doubted new all-time highs until quantum risk was addressed by Bitcoin Core — none have come.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring — Capriole's fund returns are not public and nothing here is a claim about them. Every $ and % figure matches scripts/price_at.py exactly. Dates are utterance dates, not the date a write-up appeared: the 5 May and 4 Sep calls are dated to his own post, which the source states explicitly, and the 26 May quote is an X post reproduced verbatim in same-day coverage. The 24 Sep and 1 Oct posts went up at 04:36 and 05:37 UTC and are charted at that day's 00:00 UTC point. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Edwards 的生意是一只基金，而不是订阅或信号群——这与本栏目中多数人的激励结构有实质差别，值得去理解，而不是想当然地认为它更干净。
据 capriole.com，Capriole Investments 成立于 2019 年，管理一只「持牌并经审计的主基金」（一家美国 LP 加两家开曼实体），服务超过 25 个国家的投资者。这是基金经理的经济模式——管理费与业绩费——而不是面向散户的销售。
他的通讯和 TradingView 指标都是免费且无付费墙的，正因如此上面的判断才能取自第一手来源。显而易见的激励是：公开研究即是基金的营销，而一位谈论自己持仓的基金经理，谈的是一个活着的头寸。
在所审阅的材料中，我们没有发现信号订阅、推荐码或代币推广。七个月样本内没有证据并不等于证明其不存在——但记录所显示的就是如此。
基金管理规模、收益率、他本人的仓位大小、粉丝数量和居住国家均未经公开证实，因此本页不会出现关于其中任何一项的数字。
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · 他的方法在起作用——低点处的价值“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · posted on the day of a local top“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · 把失效位写进句子里的一条判断引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
没有可以链接的视频库：Edwards 没有自己的频道。他发布免费的 Substack，在 X 上贴图表，并作为嘉宾出现在别处——这正是上面每一条判断都是带日期的帖子或带日期报道中的逐字引语、而不是视频片段的原因。其中两条判断背后是他本人的公开信件，并已链接在各自卡片上：《Uncharted Waters》（2026 年 4 月 15 日）与《Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin》（2026 年 5 月 5 日）。
Capriole Investments 的创始人兼首席执行官，该公司是一只 2019 年设立的系统化数字资产基金。他最为人所知的是创造了被广泛使用的比特币链上指标——Hash Ribbons、Bitcoin Energy Value、Production Cost 和 Bitcoin Yardstick——并以 @caprioleio 的账号在 Substack 和 X 上免费发布研究。
未经公开证实。他经营基金而非售卖订阅，Capriole 的管理规模、费率与收益均不公开。任何具体数字都请忽略——没有一个得到过确认。
His record in this seven-month sample splits cleanly by horizon. Slow valuation work — the March “not deep value yet” refusal and the June production-cost call — was right, the latter ahead of a 37.3% rally, and his 26 May reversal to caution was right too. Fast bullish flow signals were not: three of them in May and September fired within days of local tops, one on the day of a local top. He is a research source, not a trade alert, and nothing here is financial advice.
系统化且以估值为主导。他以生产比特币的成本为基准估值（Energy Value、Production Cost，并以 Electrical Cost 为下沿），再用 Yardstick、MVRV Z-score 和 Dynamic Range NVT 等链上指标交叉验证，并跟踪机构需求相对每日挖出供给的关系。Capriole 通过具名的内部模型来交易这套体系——Trend King、Macro Index——而他会公开说明自己的失效位。
在 caprioleio.substack.com 免费发布，并以 @caprioleio 在 X 上发帖；公司网站是 capriole.com，他的指标发布在 TradingView。在我们审阅的材料中没有任何付费信号群。
Edwards 像给大宗商品估值那样给比特币估值——造出来要花多少钱，相对于此它又值多少。你的直觉有多接近？用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
