@BigCheds
他是形态交易者，不是价格预言家。Cheds 研读经典图表与日本 K 线 — 震荡区间、W 底、支点底、均线与布林带的测试 — 并明确说出能确认或否定每个观点的价位。正是这种结构让他的判断异常容易评分，而这正是本页所做的事。
一句话概括。 Cheds（@BigCheds）是持有 CMT 认证的技术分析师，也是加密圈最经久不衰的教学账号之一。他使用化名 — 没有经核实的真名，也没有身家数字 — 他的公开记录建立在图表和著作之上，而非个人形象。他是在众目睽睽之下学会的：他的第一本交易指南写于 2017 年，当时他正在接受淋巴瘤化疗，此后他战胜了癌症，并以“帮助新交易者避开我当年的错误”为宗旨出版了五本书。他的方法是价位优先：他会点出让一个论点成立的突破位，以及让它作废的破位。在下方绘制的 2026 年区间里，这套纪律在下跌方向得到了回报 — 他 5 月对 Bitcoin、Solana 和 Ethereum 的谨慎全部兑现 — 并且在 7 月 1 日 Solana 的底部上，他的判断只差一天。4 月则让他付出了代价：他对 Bitcoin 和 Ethereum 的看涨反转解读撞上了 20–30% 的回撤。
Cheds 是一位使用化名的交易者兼教学者，他用最慢的方式积累了受众：一个 Twitter 账号和一个公开的学习博客（chedstrading.blogspot.com），把自己正在琢磨明白的东西发上去。用他自己的话说，“我交易的早期充满了挫败、困惑和持续的亏损” — 教学正是从亏损中生长出来的，而这个品牌建立在“帮助新交易者避开我当年的错误”之上。据他所述，这条路最终通向“对日本 K 线与经典图表分析的专门钻研，并最终取得 CMT 认证”。
这段起点故事并非营销话术。他在 2017 年接受淋巴瘤化疗期间写下了 Complete Beginners Guide to Trading；他战胜了癌症，并把这段经历也写成了一本书。如今有五本书署着他的名字 — Trading Wisdom、Trading Quotes、The Trading Journal、My Battles with Cancer，以及最初那本入门指南。他的 YouTube 频道 Cheds Trading 并不是行情判断节目：近期内容是几乎每日更新的技术分析短课 — K 线形态、Parabolic SAR、安德鲁分叉线、扩散形态。
有两点对他不利。第一，他使用化名：图表背后没有经核实的身份、履历或经审计的战绩，因此这里的一切只能建立在带日期的公开发言之上。第二，他在 2026 年 4 月的看涨反转解读错得让人肉痛 — Bitcoin 确实突破了他所说的 $76,000，但他标出的“复合支点底”并不是底，而 Ethereum 的 $2,400 突破在几天之内就宣告失败，随后下跌 32.7%。这两条都被绘制在下方，而不是悄悄略去。他对逆着自身倾向交易也很坦率：2026 年 9 月 3 日他发帖说，自己“在 67k 建了多单，尽管基于 $BTC 的高时间框架趋势仍看更低”，理由是看空的观点并不禁止一个干净的做多形态。
Sources: dailyhodl.com dated coverage · x.com/BigCheds posts · youtube.com/@ChedsTrading · his own book author notes
经典图表分析，价位优先。Cheds 完全按教科书行事：震荡区间与区间顶部、W 底／双底、复合支点底、日本 K 线反转形态、50 日均线、布林带以及 OBV 背离。他的帖子与多数图表评论的区别在于，他几乎总是在同一句话里点明触发条件与失效价位 — “翻过 $85,000”、“突破 $78 可以是做多的论据，同时也是做空的失效点”。他双向交易，会毫不含糊地在反弹至阻力位时做空。其弱点也是经典技术分析一贯的弱点：干净的形态既可能是真信号，也可能是假突破 — 2026 年 4 月他宣告的支点底，下方还藏着 21% 的跌幅。
真正的双向操作。他 5 月在阻力位做空 Solana，7 月又在底部转为看涨；他的倾向跟随刚刚被打破的价位，而不是对周期的某种固定看法。
Nine dated calls across the 2026 window, charted against real price: six attributed to Cheds by The Daily Hodl, and three from his own X posts since August. Every quote was confirmed verbatim on its live source before it was used here. Because he states an explicit trigger and invalidation, these grade cleanly — and the split is instructive: his April bullish reversal read went badly wrong on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, while his May caution and his 1 July Solana call were right, the last of them within a day of the low. Since August he called the $67,000 Bitcoin breakout well, saw a September diamond-top breakdown reverse within a week, and on 22 September declared the bottom in. Nothing here is cherry-picked; the cards run in date order.
“ETH now working on broader range breakout circa $2,400.”
A range-breakout call on Ethereum at $2,326. It was a fake-out: ETH tagged $2,421 three days later, failed immediately, and fell −32.7% to $1,566. ETH later climbed to a $2,775 (+19.3%) peak on 22 September and sits at $2,503 (+7.6%) — but only after that 33% drawdown. The breakout he named did not hold, and this is the clearest miss on the page.
SourceCrypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Flashing Bullish Reversal Setup — The Daily Hodl↗ dailyhodl.com“BTC $74,500 and pushing toward range peak. Breakout at $76,000.”
Two claims in one post, and they split. The trigger worked: from $74,297 Bitcoin cleared $76,000 within three days and ran to $82,018 (+10.4%) by 11 May. The thesis didn't — he framed it as a “compound fulcrum bottom,” and BTC then fell −21.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. BTC then recovered to a $86,597 (+16.6%) high on 22 September and sits at $82,851 (+11.5%): a profitable breakout wrapped in a bottom call that was three months early.
SourceCrypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Flashing Bullish Reversal Setup — The Daily Hodl↗ dailyhodl.com“For me to think the bottom's in we need to flip $85,000. I think a weekly close would be logical.”
Having been early in April, he set a hard bar in May at $79,289: no bottom until BTC flips $85,000. The downtrend he warned about arrived first, −26.1% to $58,566 on 1 July. BTC only reached his line in late September — $86,597 (+9.2%) on 22 September, the day he declared the bottom in himself (last card) — and it is back at $82,851 (+4.5%). Withholding the bottom call at $79K was the right read: the real bottom came 26% lower.
SourceVeteran Crypto Trader Warns Bitcoin Now Facing Big Resistance — The Daily Hodl↗ dailyhodl.com“I'd probably short here, though, because it's a downtrend bouncing into resistance.”
An outright short on Solana at $91, on the textbook reason — a downtrend bouncing into a range peak. It worked: SOL fell −31.8% to $62. Worth stating plainly that he did not stay short: SOL has since run to a $122 (+34.0%) high and sits at $109 (+20.2% from this call), and he flipped bullish on it in July — the next card.
SourceVeteran Crypto Trader Warns Bitcoin Now Facing Big Resistance — The Daily Hodl↗ dailyhodl.com“It needs to hold $2,150 on what looks to be a pending retest or it is headed for Goblin Town”
A conditional warning at $2,258 with a precise line in the sand. ETH lost $2,150 and went exactly where he said — −30.7% to $1,566. Note this is the same $2,400 level he had called a breakout a month earlier: by May he was reading its “continued inability to break $2,400” as weakness. ETH is now $2,503 (+10.8%).
SourceVeteran Crypto Trader Warns Bitcoin Now Facing Big Resistance — The Daily Hodl↗ dailyhodl.com“Flip of $78 can be a long thesis, and invalidation for a short.”
His best call in the window, and the timing is the point: he turned bullish on Solana at $74 on 1 July — the exact day Bitcoin printed its $58,566 cycle low. SOL has since gained +66.0% to $122, with a maximum drawdown of only −2.3% along the way, and sits at $109 (+48.8%). He also named the invalidation in the same sentence, which is what makes it a trade rather than an opinion.
SourceCrypto Strategist Details Bullish Scenario for Solana — The Daily Hodl↗ dailyhodl.com“$BTC flashing a major buy signal on break of 67k, 2 level filter”
A long trigger, named and then hit: he posted mid-session on 19 August as Bitcoin pushed through $67,000. The chart starts at that day's $64,686 opening point, so it flatters him slightly — the next daily point was already $69,291. From there BTC ran to $86,597 (+33.9%) on 22 September and sits at $82,851 (+28.1%); measured from his own $67,000 trigger, that is still about +29% at the peak and +24% now. The cleanest call on the page.
𝕏 Post“$BTC flashing a major buy signal on break of 67k, 2 level filter” — @BigCheds on X↗ x.com“$BTC one view of $BTC here is a diamond top breaking down on daily 76k low trigger for me.”
A bearish pattern read at $78,283, with $76,000 as the trigger. The trigger fired — BTC closed at $75,590 (−3.4%) on 16 September, and that day he asked his stream “what does the loss of 76k mean” — and then the breakdown failed outright: within six days BTC was at $86,597 (+10.6%), and it sits at $82,851 (+5.8%). In fairness he hedged it as “one view” and was back to bullish posts by 18 September, but as a call it went against him. (The “$1,000 in” line below is buy-and-hold, so it shows a gain on this bearish call.)
𝕏 Post“One view of $BTC here is a diamond top breaking down on daily” — @BigCheds on X↗ x.com“$BTC THE BOTTOM IS IN”
Four months after setting his bar — “flip $85,000” — he called it: the bottom is in. The chart point is $86,597 — as of 11 October, Bitcoin's highest daily point since the July low; BTC has since dipped to $81,686 (−5.7%) and sits at $82,851 (−4.3%). The claim is about the $58,566 low of 1 July, which nothing has threatened yet, so this stays open — but anyone who bought the announcement is down on it so far.
𝕏 Post“$BTC THE BOTTOM IS IN” — @BigCheds on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated bias against real price, not his own scoring. Calls come from dated third-party coverage, which quotes his X posts and YouTube sessions directly, or from his own X posts (linked on each card). Percentages are computed from the same price data that draws the charts, at the daily point for the date of the post. The “$1,000 in” line assumes buying on the call date and holding, so on bearish calls it does not show his result. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Cheds sells books and education, and is transparent that trading platforms sponsor him. He is also an analyst at the paid membership Bitcoin Live, which he promotes on his X feed. No token promotion turned up in the record we reviewed, but the sponsorships and the membership are real and worth pricing in.
五本自出版著作 — Trading Wisdom、Trading Quotes、The Trading Journal、My Battles with Cancer 和 Complete Beginners Guide to Trading — 外加 YouTube 上每日免费的课程流，把观众引向这些书。
他曾在 X 上公开向受众推广交易场所，包括 BingX 以及永续合约 DEX edgeX。联盟推广协议在这一领域是常态；请把平台推荐当作广告，而非分析。
He writes member reports for the subscription service Bitcoin Live and advertises it on X. Several times a week he posts a “New Bitcoin Live Member report” link, and in late September and early October he promoted a sale (“Your first 3 months of membership for $97”). He also posts clips of member-only reports to show calls he made there. We cannot see those reports, so no call on this page comes from one.
“Flip of $78 can be a long thesis, and invalidation for a short.”
01 Jul 2026 · “触发＋失效”的习惯，恰好在底部当天“For me to think the bottom's in we need to flip $85,000.”
14 May 2026 · 拒绝宣告一个市场还没给他看到的底“It needs to hold $2,150 … or it is headed for Goblin Town”
14 May 2026 · 那条最终兑现的 ETH 警告引文摘自他本人的公开来源；是其表达的观点，并非投资建议。
他的 YouTube 并不是行情判断节目，而是几乎每日更新的经典技术分析短课。近期有代表性的片段：
一位使用化名的技术分析师兼教学者，以 Cheds（@BigCheds）的身份发帖，并经营 Cheds Trading 这个 YouTube 频道。他持有 CMT 认证，交易经典图表形态与日本 K 线，已出版五本交易类图书。他的真实姓名并未公开。
未知，且未经公开核实。他使用化名，不发布经审计的战绩，也从未披露过持仓。你看到的任何具体数字都是编造的 — 请忽略。
He is an educator and commentator, not a licensed adviser. In the 2026 calls charted here five of nine played out — his May caution on BTC, SOL and ETH, a Solana call within a day of the July low, and the August $67,000 Bitcoin breakout. Two went against him: the April Ethereum breakout, which fell 33%, and a September bearish Bitcoin pattern that reversed within a week. Two are still open, including his 22 September call that the bottom is in. Treat his views as a documented, dated opinion, never as a signal to follow blindly.
经典图表分析，价位优先。他从震荡区间、W 底／双底、支点底、K 线反转、50 日均线、布林带和 OBV 背离入手 — 在给出确认观点的价位的同时，也给出让它作废的价位。他既做多也做空，并说过高时间框架的看空观点不会阻止他去接一个干净的做多形态。
Cheds 完全按教科书交易：明确的触发条件、明确的失效价位，对方向毫无执念。你的直觉有多接近 — 用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
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Informational and educational analysis based strictly on publicly available materials (dated third-party coverage quoting his posts and videos, and his own X posts, linked on each call). Every quote was verified verbatim on its source page. Not financial or investment advice. Figures are approximate and change constantly. Spotted an error, or are you Cheds? 提交勘误 →
已验证账号 · 来源见上方 · 评分方法 · 更新于 11 October 2026
